Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded SAP's stock rating to "Overweight," identifying it as a preferred stock due to anticipated improvement in Q2 performance and continued growth acceleration driven by S/4HANA transformation, AI investments, and long-term trends towards public cloud readiness [1] Summary by Categories Company Performance - A survey of several SAP channel partners indicates that SAP's Q2 performance is expected to improve [1] - Growth is projected to continue accelerating, supported by ongoing initiatives [1] Strategic Initiatives - The transformation towards S/4HANA is highlighted as a key driver for growth [1] - Investments in artificial intelligence (AI) are also noted as a significant factor contributing to the company's positive outlook [1] Market Position - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of €285.00 for SAP's stock, reinforcing its position as a top pick in the market [1]

金十数据7月21日讯，韦德布什分析师在一份研究报告中表示，随着人工智能革命的顺风在整个行业加 速发展，科技股下半年将表现强劲。分析师们表示，生成式人工智能的进一步采用可能成为软件行业的 主要催化剂，在未来12至18个月内，用例将呈爆炸式增长。与此同时，他们表示，特朗普政府可能会继 续软化其在关税问题上的立场，而不会大幅改变目前的科技格局。他们表示："投资者仍未充分认识到 未来3年2万亿美元支出带来的增长浪潮。"韦德布什估计，在英伟达(NVDA.O)上每花1美元，在科技生 态系统的其他地方就会有8到10美元的消费。 韦德布什：科技股或迎强势下半年 AI革命浪潮成关键推力 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 142.30 points, closing at 44,342.19, a decline of 0.32% [2] - The Nasdaq Composite increased by 10.01 points, closing at 20,895.66, a rise of 0.05% [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.57 points, ending at 6,296.79, a slight decrease of 0.01% [2] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 326.71 points, closing at 24,825.66, an increase of 1.33% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index decreased by 82.08 points, closing at 39,819.11, a decline of 0.21% [2] Political Developments - In Japan, the ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Councillors for the first time since its establishment in 1955, with opposition parties and independents securing 76 seats, totaling 124 seats [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has advised against attempting to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, but former President Trump dismissed these concerns, asserting he understands market dynamics better than others [4] Corporate Actions - South Korea is considering increasing stock transaction taxes to compensate for potential revenue losses from reduced dividend income taxes, which were previously lowered to nearly zero [5] - The UK government is seeking public opinion on a licensing plan for autonomous vehicle services, with the consultation period ending on September 28 [6] - The London Stock Exchange Group is exploring the feasibility of implementing 24-hour trading to meet growing demand from retail investors [7] Technology and Innovation - Nvidia has informed its Chinese clients that the supply of its H20 chips is limited and does not plan to restart production due to U.S. export restrictions [8] - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sold 75,000 shares of the company, valued at approximately $12.94 million, as part of a plan to sell up to 6 million shares by the end of the year [8] - Elon Musk announced that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) will integrate technology from the Austin Robotaxi project, promising significant performance improvements [9][10] - OpenAI's CEO stated that over 1 million GPUs will be operational by the end of the year, emphasizing the need to scale this number significantly [11] - Apple is expected to release the public beta version of iOS 26 soon, with development for iOS 27 set to begin, focusing on features for a rumored foldable iPhone [12]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for financial regulatory support to enhance economic performance and quality development in urban areas, focusing on consumption and effective investment financing [4][5][8] - The software industry shows a continuous growth trend, with a revenue increase of 11.2% in the first five months of 2025, indicating a robust performance in the sector [14][15] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a downturn, with a significant drop in various subcategories, while health products are performing well [18][19] - The livestock and poultry market is facing challenges, with prices declining due to oversupply, suggesting a potential increase in supply and demand in the latter half of 2025 [21][22] - The semiconductor industry is on an upward trajectory, driven by AI advancements and increasing demand for AI-related products, with a notable rise in sales and prices of memory chips [28][30][34] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,534.48, with a slight increase of 0.50%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are at 14.47 and 39.96, respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][12] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.67%, while the Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.62%, reflecting mixed performance in international markets [4] Industry Analysis - The electric vehicle sector is leading the market, with significant growth in sales and production, supported by favorable policies [26] - The AI sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with new product launches and increased competition among tech companies, particularly in the AI chip market [14][17][29] - The beverage industry is seeing a shift, with health products gaining traction while traditional segments like liquor and soft drinks are declining [18][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as health products, soft drinks, and snacks for investment opportunities, highlighting specific companies like Anqi Yeast and Qingdao Beer [20][25] - In the semiconductor industry, attention is drawn to AI-related investments, particularly in memory chips and AI hardware, as demand continues to rise [28][30][34]

Core Insights - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) concluded successfully, showcasing the latest achievements in global industrial and supply chain cooperation [1] - The event attracted 210,000 online and offline visitors, a 5% increase from the previous year, and over 6,000 cooperation agreements were signed [1] - The expo served as a platform for international and domestic enterprises to interact, share resources, and promote the stability and optimization of global supply chains [1] Group 1: Event Highlights - The Chain Expo featured 152 new products, technologies, and services, marking a 67% increase from the last event [1] - Companies like Jiangsu Hengrui Carbon Fiber Technology Co., Ltd. showcased innovative products aimed at the commercial aircraft and low-altitude flight sectors, emphasizing a green circular composite material ecosystem [2] - Taiyuan Fulairda Logistics Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. presented AI-driven industrial robots and received inquiries from over 20 domestic and international companies on the first day [3] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The expo highlighted the application of AI and embodied intelligence in the industrial chain, with companies like Jiechuang Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. showcasing AI electromagnetic network capture products [3] - The "Beijing Initiative" released at the expo called for the acceleration of digital, intelligent, and visual supply chain development using technologies like AI, IoT, and blockchain [4] - Jiangsu Qingtian Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. introduced an AI big data solution for global supply chain reconstruction, addressing the needs for digitalization and compliance [5] Group 3: Industry Collaboration - Guangdong Zhuozhi Supply Chain Technology Group launched the "Shumaitong" cross-border supply chain management platform, integrating AI technology into international trade processes [6] - The expo emphasized long-term cooperation over immediate transactions, promoting a collaborative environment among exhibitors [6] - The event aimed to enhance connections between businesses, leveraging big data and AI to optimize enterprise interactions and foster a "find friends" model [6]

7月18日，Open AI正式发布通用人工智能代理ChatGPT Agent，这个被称为"数字雇员"的工具， 正以颠覆性的姿态重新定义生产力边界。通过整合Operator的网页交互能力、Deep Research的深 度分析能力和ChatGPT的对话生成能力，Chat GPT Agent不仅能完成从数据搜集到文档生成的全 流程任务，更在多个领域展现出超越人类初级从业者的效率。这场技术革命不仅引发了全球科技界 的震动，更在资本市场掀起了新一轮的投资热潮。 ChatGPT Agent的核心突破在于实现了"感知-决策-行动"的闭环。例如，当用户要求"分析新能源 汽车市场趋势并制作管理层汇报PPT"时，Agent会自动完成以下步骤： 数据采集：通过可视化浏览器抓取行业报告、财报数据和社交媒体舆情； 深度分析：运用机器学习模型识别市场趋势，生成财务预测和竞品对比图表； 内容生成：根据用户指定的PPT模板自动排版，嵌入动态图表和交互式数据看板；风险管控：在执 行邮件发送等敏感操作前主动请求用户授权。 这种端到端的任务处理能力，使Agent在多项基准测试中刷新行业纪录：在"人类终极考试"中单次 通过率达41.6%， 远超传 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a negative outlook on the US dollar, predicting a continued decline over the next 12 months, with an expected drop of 10% by the end of 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the weakening dollar will positively impact the earnings of US multinational companies due to the "translation effect," where overseas revenues in foreign currencies will increase when converted back to dollars [1][6]. - It emphasizes that large multinational corporations, particularly those in the S&P 500 index, which derive approximately 40% of their revenues from overseas, will benefit the most from the dollar's depreciation [1][7]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on sectors such as technology, materials, and industrials, as well as capital goods, software, and technology hardware, which are expected to gain the most from the weakening dollar [3][9]. Summary by Sections Dollar Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar will continue to weaken due to converging US interest rates and economic growth rates with the rest of the world, with a forecasted decline of 10% by the end of 2026 [1][2]. Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are seen as having a positive effect on inflation but a negative impact on US economic growth, complicating the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates [3]. Foreign Investor Behavior - Foreign investors are increasing their foreign exchange hedging, leading to a sell-off of dollars, particularly among European investors holding significant amounts of unhedged US assets [5]. Sector Opportunities - The sectors most likely to benefit from the dollar's weakness include technology, materials, and industrials, with a focus on large multinational companies that have a high proportion of foreign revenues [7][8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the establishment of a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S. through the signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump, marking a significant shift in the U.S. stance on cryptocurrency regulation [8][12]. - The "Genius Act" requires stablecoin issuers to back their coins with liquid assets such as U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and mandates monthly disclosures of reserves [11]. - The passage of the "Genius Act" and related legislation reflects a broader institutional struggle over the future of the U.S. dollar's dominance and the management of national debt [8][12]. Group 2 - Trump's shift from being a critic of cryptocurrencies to a proponent of stablecoins is driven by multiple factors, including the desire to maintain the dollar's global influence and address U.S. national debt issues [16][17]. - The legislation is expected to create a significant demand for U.S. Treasury securities, potentially adding up to $2 trillion in new demand as stablecoin markets grow [17]. - The U.S. legislative approach aims to limit the Federal Reserve's power by prohibiting the issuance of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), thereby favoring private sector stablecoin issuers [17][21]. Group 3 - The global response to the U.S. push for private stablecoins has led to 49 countries initiating central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot programs as a countermeasure [22]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential risks associated with the proliferation of U.S. dollar stablecoins, which could undermine the monetary sovereignty of other nations and lead to financial instability [21][22]. - The competitive landscape for digital currencies is intensifying, with countries like China and members of the European Union accelerating their CBDC initiatives in response to the U.S. stablecoin legislation [21][22].

过去一周，美国股市的表现再次刷新了市场的预期。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数双双创下历史新高， 纳指更是在八个交易日中六次收盘破纪录。这一切都发生在特朗普政府宣布新一轮广泛关税、并被市场 认为或将冲击全球贸易秩序之后。那么，问题来了：在如此大的政策不确定性背景下，美股为何不跌反 涨，甚至频创新高？ 一个关键解释是，美国消费者的韧性仍在，且短期内没有受到关税成本的直接冲击。本周公布的一系列 数据与企业财报印证了这一点——百事可乐等消费巨头依然交出了亮眼的预期，消费动能未减。特别是 在饮料、航空等本被认为更容易受宏观环境压制的行业中，企业竟普遍展现出信心，这让市场对经济的 内生动能产生了新判断。 另一个支撑点是科技与工业的双重强势。这两个板块对利率敏感，同时也受益于结构性增长预期。即便 美联储尚未明确降息时间表，但通胀数据接近目标，劳动力市场走软的迹象已经让部分投资者押注美联 储可能提前转向。在此背景下，芯片制造商等高成长性企业的估值获得修复空间。资金重新涌入半导体 与软件等板块，助推了指数上涨。 Vatee外汇认为这些只是表层现象。更深层的问题在于，市场是否低估了关税政策的中长期影响？目前 看来，投资者普遍将关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Western Li De Hong Kong Stock Connect New Opportunities Mixed A (008861) reported a profit of 53.96 thousand yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0189 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 3.14% during the period [2]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 0.658 yuan [2]. - The fund's scale reached 17.6493 million yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [13]. - The fund's performance over various periods includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 16.63%, ranking 129 out of 880 comparable funds [2]. - 6-month net value growth rate: 31.25%, ranking 22 out of 880 comparable funds [2]. - 1-year net value growth rate: 32.92%, ranking 124 out of 880 comparable funds [2]. - 3-year net value growth rate: -17.98%, ranking 575 out of 870 comparable funds [2]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated a strategy of gradually realizing gains from technology, new energy vehicles, and consumer companies with reasonable valuations, while increasing positions in innovative pharmaceuticals with favorable policies and potential catalysts [2]. - The fund adopted a barbell strategy in the absence of a clear market direction, enhancing allocation to stable high-dividend assets [2]. Risk Metrics - The fund's 3-year Sharpe ratio was -0.0515, ranking 533 out of 874 comparable funds [7]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 50.65%, ranking 97 out of 864 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 28.84% [9]. Portfolio Composition - The average stock position over the past three years was 81.24%, slightly above the comparable average of 80.33% [12]. - The fund's top ten holdings as of Q2 2025 included Tencent Holdings, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, Alibaba-W, Kingdee International, China Mobile, HSBC Holdings, Xpeng Inc.-W, 3SBio, AIA Group, and BeiGene [16].