Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract closed at 805.5 (-5.5), with a reduction of over 2,500 lots. The 09 contract is unlikely to see intense trading due to continuous position - reduction. [3] - Fundamentally, the situation is strengthening marginally. Spot prices have been rising, daily outbound volume remains high, inventory is decreasing and at a low level over the years. The supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. [3] - Considering the buyer's willingness and the seller's warehouse receipt cost, the current price valuation range is 800 - 840 yuan. When the price is below 800 yuan, buying on the futures market is better than direct import; when it is above 840 yuan, there will be profits from making warehouse receipts. [3] - In terms of trading, when funds enter, the upward possibility is greater than the downward one. The strategy is to mainly go long on dips and supplement with high - selling. The 09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage should exit. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 800 - 840 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4%. [2] Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 820 - 840 yuan to lock in profits and cover production costs. [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 790 - 800 yuan to lock in procurement costs in advance. [2] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 805.5 (-5.5), with a reduction of over 2,500 lots. The 09 contract is unlikely to have intense trading. [3] - Fundamentally, the situation is strengthening marginally. Spot prices are rising, daily outbound volume is high, inventory is decreasing and at a low level. The supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. [3] - The price valuation range is 800 - 840 yuan. The current futures price is in a reasonable range. The strategy is to mainly go long on dips and supplement with high - selling. The 09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage should exit. [3] 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities is warming up; and there is an impact from funds. [6] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season is not prosperous; the shipping volume from foreign suppliers continues to rise. [6] Spot and Basis - Provides spot price, price change, and basis data for different specifications of logs at different ports on August 20, 2025, including 3.9 large (3.8A) at Rizhao Port, 4 large (3.8A) at Taicang Port, etc. [4][9] Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 m³ but a year - on - year increase of 35.3%. [7] - **Inventory**: As of August 15, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.06 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. [7] - **Demand**: As of August 15, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 63,300 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 900 m³ but a year - on - year increase of 28.9%. [7] - **Profit**: The import profit of radiation pine and spruce on August 15, 2025, was - 87 yuan/m³ and - 81 yuan/m³ respectively. [7] - **Foreign Market Quotation**: The CFR on August 15, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, with no change week - on - week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. [7]

Report 1: Natural Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View The current natural rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short positions intertwined. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range, with the 01 contract's reference range at 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply increases smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai on August 19 was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 920 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan or 11.41% [1]. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber on August 19 was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread on August 19 was - 995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 3.86% from the previous day [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 10.53% from the previous day [1]. - The 5 - 9 spread was 1080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 4.42% from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's natural rubber production was 392.6 thousand tons, up 120.4 thousand tons or 44.23% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 176.2 thousand tons, down 24.1 thousand tons or - 12.03% [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.00%, down 2.09 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - In July, domestic tire production was 9436.4 million pieces, down 838.5 million pieces or - 8.16% from the previous month. Tire export volume was 6665.0 million pieces, up 634.0 million pieces or 10.51% [1]. Inventory Change - As of August 19, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 619,852 tons, down 11,918 tons or 1.89% from the previous day [1]. - The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE (weekly) was 46,469 tons, up 4234 tons or 10.02% from the previous week [1]. Report 2: Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips, and buy put options to short at high prices when the volatility is low. Also, consider buying straddle options when the volatility is low [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type reclaimed materials on August 19 was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The N - type material basis (average price) was - 5260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [2]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract on August 19 was 52,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [2]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 215 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 59.26% from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production was 2.93 million tons, down 0.01 million tons or 0.34% from the previous week. Weekly silicon wafer production was 12.10 GM, up 0.08 GM or 0.67% [2]. - Monthly polysilicon production was 10.10 million tons, up 0.49 million tons or 5.10% from the previous month. Monthly polysilicon imports were 0.08 million tons, down 0.02 million tons or 16.90% [2]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory was 24.20 million tons, up 0.90 million tons or 3.86% from the previous day. The silicon wafer inventory was 19.80 GM, up 0.69 GM or 3.61% [2]. Report 3: Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View Last week, the industrial silicon price fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price falls to the low level of 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon on August 19 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The basis of East China SI4210 industrial silicon (based on SI4210) was 325 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 5.80% from the previous day [3]. Monthly Spread - The spread between the 2509 and 2510 contracts on August 19 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 50.00% from the previous day [3]. - The spread between the 2510 and 2511 contracts was 10 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 300.00% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - Monthly national industrial silicon production was 33.83 million tons, up 1.06 million tons or 3.23% from the previous month. Xinjiang's production was 15.03 million tons, down 2.70 million tons or 15.21% [3]. - The national industrial silicon operating rate was 52.61%, up 1.27 percentage points or 2.47% from the previous month [3]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) on August 19 was 11.70 million tons, up 0.01 million tons or 0.09% from the previous day [3]. - The social inventory (weekly) was 54.50 million tons, down 0.20 million tons or 0.37% from the previous day [3]. Report 4: Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View Soda Ash The soda ash futures market is weak. The fundamental situation is in obvious surplus, and the demand has no growth expectation. Short positions can continue to be held [4]. Glass The glass market is in a continuous weak operation. The market negative feedback continues, and the overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The long - term industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - Related Price and Spread - The North China glass quotation on August 19 was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The glass 2505 contract price was 1291 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.30% from the previous day [4]. - The 05 basis was - 141 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 10.76% from the previous day [4]. Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread - The North China soda ash quotation on August 19 was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soda ash 2505 contract price was 1413 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 2.01% from the previous day [4]. - The 05 basis was - 63 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 31.52% from the previous day [4]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate on August 15 was 87.32%, up 2.24 percentage points from August 8. The weekly soda ash production was 76.13 million tons, up 1.7 million tons or 2.23% [4]. - The float glass daily melting volume was 15.96 million tons, unchanged from August 8 [4]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory on August 15 was 6342.60 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes or 2.55% from August 8 [4]. - The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory on August 15 was 189.38 million tons, up 2.9 million tons or 1.54% from August 8 [4]. Report 5: Log Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View The log futures price is currently oscillating in a range. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the spot market is strong in the short - term. It is recommended to participate in buying on dips, focusing on the support level around 800 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Price - The log 2509 contract price on August 19 was 810.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The 9 - 11 spread was - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [5]. - The price of 3.9A small radiata pine at Rizhao Port on August 19 was 720 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on August 19 was 7.183, up 0.001 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 818.77 yuan, up 0.15 yuan from the previous day [5]. Supply - The port shipping volume in July was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 2.7 million cubic meters or 1.51% from June [5]. - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 47.0, down 6.0 or 11.32% from the previous period [5]. Inventory - The main port inventory in China on August 15 was 306.00 million cubic meters, down 2.0 million cubic meters or 0.65% from August 8 [5]. - Shandong's inventory was 185.40 million cubic meters, down 7.2 million cubic meters or 3.74% from August 8 [5]. Demand - The average daily log outbound volume in China on August 15 was 6.33 million cubic meters, down 0.09 million cubic meters or 1% from August 8 [5]. - Shandong's average daily outbound volume was 3.59 million cubic meters, down 0.05 million cubic meters or 1% from August 8 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Hebei Yuanmu Chuangjie Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 10 million RMB, focusing on various forestry and technology services [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of the company is Qin Zhenhua [1] - The registered capital of the company is 10 million RMB [1] - The company engages in a wide range of activities including forestry professional services, technology services, new materials technology promotion and research, wood processing and sales, and agricultural machinery services [1] Industry Summary - The company operates in the forestry and wood processing industry, which includes activities such as wood acquisition, non-edible forest product processing, and bamboo processing machinery manufacturing [1] - The company is also involved in the manufacturing and sales of cork products, flooring, and construction materials [1] - The company has both general and licensed project operations, with specific activities requiring approval from relevant authorities [1]

Market Overview - The price of A-grade radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 750 CNY/m³, while at Taicang Port, the price increased by 10 CNY/m³ to 780 CNY/m³ [1] - The price of 11.8m spruce logs at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1150 CNY/m³ [1] - The average daily outbound volume of logs nationwide is 64,200 m³, showing a month-on-month increase of 9.18% and a year-on-year increase of 35.73% [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of incoming New Zealand logs at 11 ports in China decreased to 7 vessels, down by 8 vessels or 53% week-on-week [1] - The total volume of logs arriving at ports was approximately 190,000 m³, a decrease of 286,000 m³ or 60% from the previous week [1] Institutional Insights - New Century Futures indicates that the current market prices are stable, with expected reductions in log arrivals, leading to manageable supply pressure and increased stocking intentions from processing plants [2] - Ruida Futures notes that port inventories are at a neutral level for the year, with external prices providing cost support, and overall downstream demand for logs is gradually recovering [2]

Group 1 - A new company, Zhanjiang Senbo Wood Industry Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 1 million RMB [1] - The company's business scope includes wood processing, wood acquisition, wood sales, and processing of building wood materials and components [1] - Additional services offered by the company include cargo packing, loading and unloading, material handling equipment sales, and general cargo warehousing [1] Group 2 - The company is also involved in the manufacturing and sales of machinery for wood and bamboo processing, as well as machinery for forestry and bamboo harvesting [1] - The company operates under the principle of conducting business activities independently based on its business license, except for projects that require approval [1]

Group 1 - Guangxi's foreign trade maintained a strong growth momentum in the first half of the year, with total imports and exports reaching 387.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, outpacing the national growth rate by 10.1 percentage points [1] - The development of export-oriented industries has reached a new level, with significant support from supply chain service platforms, leading to exports of electromechanical products and labor-intensive products growing by 29.4% and 4.5% respectively [1] - The import of bulk commodities amounted to 90.23 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4%, accounting for 59.2% of Guangxi's total imports during the same period [1] Group 2 - The performance of production-oriented enterprises in foreign trade was notable, with imports and exports totaling 129.94 billion yuan, a growth of 16.5%, exceeding the overall foreign trade growth rate by 3.5 percentage points [2] - Industries such as non-ferrous metals, equipment manufacturing, paper making, and agricultural products processing saw import and export growth rates exceeding 20% [2] - The optimization of the business environment has invigorated foreign trade, with measures such as simplified export tax refund processes significantly reducing approval times to an average of one working day [2] Group 3 - In the first half of the year, Guangxi's trade with ASEAN reached 206.08 billion yuan, a growth of 11.9%, accounting for 53.2% of Guangxi's total foreign trade [3] - Trade with Vietnam specifically amounted to 149.88 billion yuan, increasing by 4.3% [3] - Border small-scale trade and border residents' mutual market trade reached 43.78 billion yuan and 12.3 billion yuan respectively [3]

Group 1 - A new company named Xuzhou Ranran New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1 million RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Xu Jie [1] - The business scope includes research and promotion of new material technology, furniture manufacturing and sales, wood product manufacturing and sales, and various import and export activities [1] Group 2 - The company is involved in the manufacturing and sales of daily wooden products, artificial boards, and wood containers [1] - It also provides services related to furniture installation and maintenance, as well as wood processing [1] - The company is authorized to conduct business activities independently based on its business license, excluding projects that require approval [1]

Core Viewpoint - The external guarantee management measures of Guangxi Fenglin Wood Industry Group Co., Ltd. aim to protect investors' interests, regulate the company's external guarantee behavior, control asset operation risks, and promote healthy and stable development [1]. Group 1: General Provisions - The external guarantee refers to the company providing guarantees, mortgages, or pledges on behalf of others [1]. - The total amount of external guarantees includes guarantees provided by the company to its controlling subsidiaries [1]. Group 2: Guarantee Objects - The company can provide guarantees only to entities that meet specific credit conditions, including being a legally established enterprise, having repayment ability, good profitability, and no significant risks [4]. Group 3: Approval Authority - External guarantees must be reviewed by the board of directors or the shareholders' meeting, requiring a majority approval from all directors and two-thirds of attending directors [2]. - Certain guarantees exceeding specified thresholds must be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for approval [3]. Group 4: Internal Procedures - The company must verify the credit status of the guaranteed party before deciding to provide guarantees [10]. - The company should establish a management system for the custody and use of seals related to guarantee matters [5]. Group 5: Information Disclosure - The company must strictly adhere to information disclosure obligations regarding external guarantees, including timely disclosure of board or shareholder resolutions [8]. - If a guaranteed party fails to fulfill repayment obligations within 15 trading days after the due date, the company must disclose this information promptly [27]. Group 6: Other Provisions - The company and its controlling subsidiaries must follow relevant regulations when providing counter-guarantees [31]. - Any individual must not sign guarantee contracts without authorization, and any consequences arising from unauthorized actions will be borne by that individual [32].

Core Insights - The successful completion of the LG2507 futures contract's delivery marks a significant milestone for the original wood futures market, validating the contract rules and regulatory framework [1] - The contract operated for 169 trading days, with a total trading volume of 4.34 million lots and a transaction value of 321.33 billion yuan [1] Delivery Details - In July, 1,281 lots were paired and delivered, including 1,230 lots through rolling delivery and 51 lots through one-time delivery, equivalent to 115,290 cubic meters of original wood [2] - The delivery settlement price ranged from 801 yuan to 828.5 yuan per cubic meter, totaling approximately 9.53 million yuan [2] - The delivery involved 769 lots via truck delivery and 512 lots through standard warehouse receipts, engaging multiple buyers and sellers without any delivery defaults [2] Industry Response - Shandong Tengnuo Wood Industry Co., Ltd. has proactively stocked up for the peak season, completing 60 lots of delivery, and noted a rise in market prices for original wood [3] - The company highlighted that the futures market provides a new procurement channel and a tool for hedging against rising raw material prices, enhancing factory yield and profit margins [3] - Jiangsu Huihong International Group utilized the LG2507 contract for sell hedging, completing 85 lots of delivery, which helped stabilize their revenue curve [4] Operational Efficiency - Taicang Xinhai Port Development Co., Ltd. completed 425 lots of delivery, implementing a coordinated approach to ensure smooth operations during the delivery process [5] - The company achieved an average delivery efficiency of 20 minutes per lot, even during high-temperature conditions, earning customer recognition [5] Quality Assurance - Zhongli Inspection Co., Ltd. emphasized the rigorous quality standards and processes in the original wood futures delivery, promoting transparency and trust between buyers and sellers [6] - The introduction of digital and intelligent inspection methods has enhanced the objectivity and traceability of quality assessments, supporting the standardization and efficiency of trade [6] - Market participants noted a strong willingness among industry clients to engage in delivery, prompting the Dalian Commodity Exchange to enhance services and training to ensure smooth delivery operations [6]

康欣新材8月13日披露半年报，公司上半年实现营业收入1.86亿元，同比下降38.22%；归属于上市公司 股东的净利润亏损1.34亿元，上年同期亏损8728.07万元；基本每股收益-0.1元。 ...