1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 人民币升值趋势叠加历年岁末年初是外资布局 A 股跨年行情的窗口，短期来看， 外资有望阶段性净流入贡献增量资金，外资的流入比较有利于 A 股的大盘风格。 从历史看，1 月融资资金往往在后半月转弱，保险资金多在年初净流入。整体来 看，1 月市场更可能呈现结构性增量资金流入的格局，有望助力 A 股延续上行 趋势，继续演绎春季攻势，风格层面推荐大盘风格。 定期报告 相关报告 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 历年 1 月各类资金变化特征及其影响如何？ ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0106） 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场SCP范式研究之一》，2017 年 10 月 3. 《A500 ETF 大量净流入，融资 规模延续上行——金融市场流动 性与监管动态周报（1230）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿 元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 100.40↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 368.77 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Xinyuan Consumer Selected Mixed Securities Investment Fund" is on the verge of liquidation due to significant underperformance, with a net value drop from 1 yuan to approximately 0.52 yuan, resulting in a cumulative loss of nearly 50% since its inception in March 2023. In 2025, it recorded a loss of 19.65%, making it the worst-performing active equity fund in the market during that year [1][13]. Fund Performance and Structure - As of the end of Q3 2025, the fund's combined asset size was only 0.29 billion yuan, far below the 2 billion yuan "survival line" stipulated in its contract, risking automatic termination by March 2026 if not rectified [1][11]. - The average return for active equity funds in 2025 exceeded 30%, with over 90% of products achieving positive returns, highlighting the stark contrast of Xinyuan's performance [1][18]. Investment Strategy and Style Drift - Despite its name indicating a focus on "consumption," the fund's actual investment trajectory has deviated significantly, showing a pattern of style drift and chasing hot sectors, leading to poor timing in buying high and selling low [3][15]. - The fund's top ten holdings shifted dramatically from a focus on consumer stocks to a heavy allocation in pharmaceuticals shortly after its launch, which was a sector in decline at that time [3][15]. Managerial Changes and Impact - The fund has experienced three managerial changes since its inception, with each manager exhibiting different investment styles, contributing to a lack of strategic continuity [6][19]. - The first manager, Liu Junwen, focused on pharmaceuticals but left with a return of approximately -27%. The second manager, Wang Chong, shifted focus to entertainment and consumer sectors but also recorded a similar return [6][21]. Trust and Investor Behavior - The fund's institutional holding ratio dropped from over 95% before 2025 to 42.94% by mid-2025, indicating a significant loss of trust among institutional investors [9][22]. - The shrinking fund size has exacerbated operational difficulties, making it more susceptible to liquidity shocks and risk concentration [10][23]. Industry Implications - The failure of Xinyuan Consumer Selected reflects deeper issues within the public fund industry, including product homogeneity and misleading naming practices that attract investments without delivering on promises [11][24]. - The emphasis on short-term performance and rapid fund launches without adequate research support has led to a reactive investment approach, particularly during market style shifts [11][25]. - The ongoing regulatory push for high-quality fund development emphasizes the fiduciary duty of fund managers, suggesting that poorly performing funds like Xinyuan may face accelerated exits from the market as part of a self-purification process [12][26].

Core Viewpoint - QDII funds are experiencing significant premium risks at the beginning of 2026, with over 20 funds issuing premium risk alerts due to trading prices exceeding net asset values [1][2] Group 1: Premium Risk Alerts - More than 20 QDII funds have issued premium risk alerts covering various products including Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and others [1] - On January 6, both Huaxia Fund and Invesco Fund's Nasdaq 100 ETF issued a premium risk alert, indicating that market prices are significantly higher than the reference net asset value [1] - This marks the third premium risk alert for these two funds in 2026, with multiple alerts also issued by other funds like the Huatai-PB Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF and the China-Korea Semiconductor ETF [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis - As of January 6, over half of the 200 cross-border ETFs in the market are in a premium state, with the highest premium rate exceeding 22% and over 20 products having a premium rate greater than 4% [2] - The surge in QDII product premiums is attributed to rising overseas markets and limited purchase quotas, leading investors to buy in the secondary market, thus driving up premiums [2] - High premiums pose significant risks, especially when liquidity is low, as large investments may face difficulties in selling, leading to potential losses [2] Group 3: Growth of QDII Funds - QDII funds have rapidly developed as a tool for investors to expand overseas asset allocation, with the total scale of QDII funds exceeding 810 billion yuan, doubling in size compared to the end of 2023 [2]

2025年新引进机构34家，注册资本金2718.8亿元，平均每家近80亿元。新引进资管机构10余家。驻区资 管机构资管规模超过21万亿元，约占北京市一半、全国八分之一。 新京报讯（记者戴轩）日前，西城区"两会"开幕，西城区区长郅海杰介绍，2025年西城全年地区生产总 值预计增长5%左右，区级一般公共预算收入完成438亿元，社会消费品零售综合预计增长3.5%左右。 2026年，西城区经济社会发展的主要预期目标中，地区生产总值增长5%左右，区级一般公共预算收入 增长3%左右，城镇调查失业率控制在5%以内，居民人均可支配收入稳定增长。 西城区金融街党工委委员、金融街服务局副局长王平介绍了金融业发展的相关情况。2025年前三季度， 西城区金融业实现增加值2307.7亿元，同比增长9%，占北京市金融业34.4%，占西城区GDP 49.1%。 回顾"十四五"，2021—2024年，西城区金融业增加值年均增速约6.8%，创造了全区45%以上的GDP和北 京市35%左右的金融业增加值，贡献了全区50%以上的区级税收和北京市近70%的金融业税收。 截至2025年12月，西城区累计纳入市"两区"项目数1061个，落地项目总金额达 ...

Group 1 - In the first two trading days of the year, 455 public funds have seen net value growth exceeding 5%, with several products surpassing 10% [1] - The best-performing products are primarily mixed and equity funds, with a significant focus on technology assets such as semiconductors, digital industries, and healthcare innovation [1] - Specific funds like Huatai Bairui's ETF for Korean semiconductor stocks and Yongying's semiconductor fund have shown impressive returns of 8.21% and 9.27% respectively, ranking them among the top in their categories [1] Group 2 - The current capital market is experiencing a stable upward trend due to liquidity, industrial cycles, and confidence, with A-share core asset valuations significantly lower than overseas markets [2] - Analysts predict that the technology sector will remain a key investment theme through 2026, with high-growth industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors driving market momentum [2] - There are warnings about potential risks, including the transmission of overseas market risks to domestic markets and the possibility of overvaluation if significant market increases occur without corresponding improvements in macroeconomic conditions [2] Group 3 - Investment potential is seen in aerospace precision guidance and commercial aerospace, along with opportunities in robotics and advanced manufacturing [3] - Analysts recommend focusing on technology and healthcare theme funds, particularly in semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have shown strong short-term and long-term returns [3] - The market environment is favorable for innovative industries, suggesting that investors should optimize their allocations to seize growth opportunities [3]

Market Performance - The A-share market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5%, marking a 13-day consecutive increase. The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index by 0.75%, and the North Star 50 Index by 1.82% [1] - The total trading volume in the three markets reached 28,322 billion yuan, an increase of 2,650 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,100 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included brain-computer interfaces, chemical engineering, large finance, non-ferrous metals, commercial aerospace, autonomous driving, and semiconductors [1] - The beauty care, CPO, and banking sectors lagged behind in performance [1] ETF Highlights - The satellite aerospace sector saw a surge, with satellite ETFs from Penghua and E Fund rising by 8%, while those from GF and Fuguo increased by 7.7% [1] - The Yinhua CSI 500 Value ETF experienced a late surge, rising by 7.5%, with a latest premium/discount rate of 4.4% [1] - Financial stocks saw a broad rally, with the E Fund Hong Kong Securities ETF and the Huaxia Financial Technology ETF increasing by 5.93% and 4.85%, respectively [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector continued to perform well, with ETFs from招商, Penghua, and Wanjia rising by 4.43%, 4.4%, and 4.36%, respectively [1] Underperforming Sectors - The banking sector declined, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF falling by 1.7% [1] - The S&P Biotechnology ETF and the NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF decreased by 2% and 1.5%, respectively [1] - The CPO sector experienced a pullback, with the communication ETF dropping by 0.35% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the equity market showed an upward trend with significant fluctuations. The CSI All-Share Index recorded a 24.60% annual return, and the Shanghai Composite Index climbed to around 4000 points. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy maintained low volatility and achieved nearly 15% return, while the Stock Fund Enhancement Strategy was limited by balanced fund selection but could still optimize the risk-return ratio. The Overseas Equity Allocation Strategy recorded a 13.98% return [3]. - The quantitative strategy allocation preference is Stock Fund Enhancement Strategy > Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy. The report is optimistic about A-share investment opportunities, suggesting active short - term layout. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy can be used as a base position, and the Overseas Equity Strategy still has some allocation value but with more risk points [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantified Strategy Allocation Viewpoints - A-shares: The report is bullish on A-share investment opportunities. The Shanghai Composite Index has exceeded 4000 points, and the trading volume has increased in 2026. The market is expected to break through further in the spring offensive. The Stock Fund Enhancement Strategy is more attractive, and the Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy can be used as a base position [4]. - Overseas market: After recovering from the tariff shock, the upward momentum of the overseas market has weakened and differences have increased. Although there is still some allocation value in the short term, there are many risk points, and the overall cost - effectiveness is slightly lower than that of A-share strategy combinations [4]. 3.2 Performance of Equity Fund Strategy Indexes - Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy Index: This week's return was -0.705% with an excess return of 0.283%. The one - month return was 0.717% with an excess return of -1.293% [5]. - Stock Fund Enhancement Fund Strategy Index: This week's return was -0.229% with an excess return of 0.759%. The one - month return was 2.294% with an excess return of 0.284% [5]. - Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy Index: This week's return was 0.019%, outperforming the CSI Money Fund Index with a cumulative excess return of 0.569% since the strategy's operation [5]. - Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy Index: This week's return was -0.137% with an excess return of 0.186%. The one - month return was 1.834% with an excess return of -1.417% [5]. 3.3 Tool - based Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking - Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio: It has maintained low volatility and small drawdowns, significantly outperforming the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It has both defensive and offensive characteristics [13]. - Stock Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio: Since the strategy has been running for a short time, its performance is similar to that of the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity in an improved market environment [16]. - Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio: After double screening, it has continuously outperformed the benchmark, with a cumulative excess return of over 0.41% since July 2023 [17]. - Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio: Since July 2023, in the context of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and the boost of AI technology, it has accumulated high - level excess returns, which can thicken the return of the equity investment portfolio [20]. 3.4 Tool - based Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas - Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio: It aims to select funds with long - term stable returns in high - equity - position actively managed funds. By adding restrictions on fund valuation levels, it constructs a low - volatility active equity fund portfolio from the perspectives of net value performance and position characteristics [22][25]. - Stock Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio: It aims to meet the needs of equity fund investors with different risk preferences. By analyzing the source of fund returns and constructing a portfolio based on the significant continuity of Alpha returns, it is expected to bring excess performance [23][26]. - Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio: By constructing a money fund screening system, it helps investors select money funds with better returns, optimize the income of short - term idle funds, and reduce income volatility risks [23][27]. - Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio: Based on long - and short - term technical indicators and comprehensive index momentum and reversal effects, it selects QDII equity funds corresponding to overseas equity indexes to build a portfolio, meeting the needs of global allocation [24][28].

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful launch of the Wanjiatai Stable FOF, which sold out on its first day, indicating strong customer acceptance and demand for diversified investment products in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Product Overview - The Wanjiatai Stable FOF is positioned as a stable, low-volatility product designed to meet current client needs for alternative investment options [2]. - The product employs a multi-asset allocation strategy, covering various asset classes such as low-volatility dividends, overseas equities, gold, bonds, and A-share equities, leveraging low or negative correlations among different assets to mitigate volatility [2]. Group 2: Management and Strategy - The fund is managed by Ren Zheng, who has 27 years of research and investment experience across major asset management institutions, focusing on constructing portfolios with superior risk-return profiles [2]. - The FOF team utilizes a unique "Alpha Pyramid" investment framework, dynamically adjusting asset allocations based on macroeconomic cycles and industry trends to respond to market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 3: Research Team and Methodology - The Wanjiatai FOF team consists of eight investment researchers with diverse backgrounds in macro strategy, fixed income, equity research, and quantitative analysis, ensuring comprehensive coverage of key sectors [3]. - The team integrates industry insights with fund product analysis, creating a closed-loop system from industry research to product implementation, supported by a proprietary investment portfolio analysis system [3]. Group 4: Fundraising Strategy - The early closure of the fund's fundraising was a strategic decision by Wanjiatai Fund to control the initial scale rather than reaching a maximum limit, emphasizing quality over quantity in fund management [3]. - This approach reflects the company's commitment to providing a sustainable investment experience and aligns with regulatory advocacy for high-quality development in the public fund industry [3][4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Wanjiatai Fund aims to continue its focus on professionalism and responsibility through ongoing product innovation and stable investment management, supporting investors in achieving long-term wealth growth [4].

Core Insights - The main investment narrative for 2025 is not the strong performance of the US stock market, but rather the significant changes in currency values and the global shift in asset allocation, with gold emerging as the true winner [1][5][12]. Currency Value Changes - The US dollar has depreciated significantly against other currencies, with declines of 13% against the Swiss franc, 12% against the euro, and 4% against the Chinese yuan. This depreciation creates an illusion of asset appreciation when measured in local currency [6][12]. - Gold has established itself as a major reserve asset, taking on the role of the second-largest reserve currency, highlighting the critical impact of currency movements on wealth transfer [6][12]. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index recorded an 18% total return in USD, driven by a 12% increase in earnings and a 5% rise in price-to-earnings ratios. However, when measured in stronger currencies, the performance appears significantly weaker [8][15]. - The "Seven Giants" within the S&P 500 saw a 22% earnings growth, while the remaining 493 stocks experienced a 9% growth, indicating a disparity in profit distribution favoring capital owners over workers [8][15]. Global Market Dynamics - Non-US markets, including Europe, China, and Japan, outperformed US stocks, with emerging markets showing an overall return of 34%. This reflects a significant capital shift away from US assets [5][14]. - The interest of foreign investors in US dollar-denominated assets is declining, leading to a preference for non-US equities and bonds [6][14]. Political and Geopolitical Factors - The political landscape is shifting from multilateralism to unilateralism, increasing military spending and sanctions, which diminishes the attractiveness of US dollar assets [10][25]. - The growing wealth gap, exacerbated by inflation, is likely to lead to political unrest and conflict between left and right factions in the US, impacting market stability [10][20]. Non-Liquid Markets - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital, private equity, and real estate are under pressure, facing significant debt rollover challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [9][19]. - The current low liquidity premium may lead to a decline in the value of non-liquid assets compared to liquid ones, posing risks for investors [9][19].

Core Insights - The active equity TOP100 fund manager list, created by Dianqi Investment and Zero City Investment, has been published annually for four years, attracting attention from various institutional investors [1] - In 2025, the performance of the active equity fund manager list fell short of the Wind Equity Fund Index, with a return of 32.4% compared to the index's 33.19% [4][5] - The underperformance is attributed to the departure of several growth-style fund managers and the overall market conditions favoring growth factors [5][6] Performance Summary - The active equity TOP100 fund manager list included 76 funds, with a constructed equal-weighted portfolio reflecting real holding experiences [2] - The 2025 performance comparison shows the following returns: - Dianqi & Zero City Active Equity TOP100: 32.4% - Wind Equity Mixed Fund Index: 33.19% - CSI Equity Fund Index: 30.37% [5] - The cumulative excess return over four years remains at 8.39% compared to the Wind Equity Fund Index [5] Reasons for Underperformance - Seven fund managers, primarily from growth styles, left mid-year, significantly impacting the portfolio's performance [5][6] - The year 2025 saw extreme performance differentiation, with many industry funds contributing high returns, while the list only included all-market funds [5][6] - The average management tenure of fund managers in the list is around eight years, with younger managers generally outperforming older ones in a bull market [6] Fund Performance by Style - The performance of various styles in 2025 includes: - Active Equity Growth Style: 46.61% - Active Equity Value Style: 19.78% - Active Equity Balanced Style: 30.98% [8] - The performance of industry-specific funds also outperformed corresponding industry ETFs [9] Notable Fund Managers - Top-performing fund managers in 2025 include: - Du Meng: Morgan Emerging Power Mixed A - 92.51% - Gao Nan: Yongying Kexin Mixed A - 92.30% - Yi Yucheng: Wan Jia Zhen Xuan Mixed A - 66.38% [9][10] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that active equity will continue to perform well in 2026, with fund managers who adapt and strive for alpha likely to gain further market recognition [13]