Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Bi Kun as the General Manager of Shanxi Lanhua Technology Entrepreneurship Co., Ltd. (Lanhua Ketech) is aimed at meeting the company's operational needs and ensuring healthy management [1][3]. Company Appointment - The Board of Directors approved the appointment of Bi Kun as General Manager, effective from the date of the board's decision until the current board's term ends [1][3]. - Bi Kun has also been nominated as a candidate for the eighth board of directors, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting [3]. Company Background - Shanxi Lanhua Technology Entrepreneurship Co., Ltd. was established in December 1998 and is recognized as one of the top 500 listed companies in China [7]. - The company is the only A-share listed company in Shanxi with local state-owned capital control, with a registered capital of 148.512 million [7]. - Lanhua Ketech has maintained annual revenue at the hundred billion level, achieving revenue of 5.886 billion in the first three quarters of this year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.5139 million [7]. Core Business - The company focuses on coal, chemical fertilizers, and chemicals as its core industries, with its coal production mines located in the largest anthracite coal base in the country [7]. - Lanhua Ketech has a total production capacity of 14.1 million tons from 10 wholly-owned or controlled mines and has a 41% stake in the Yamei Danning Coal Mine with a production capacity of 4 million tons [7].

Core Insights - Recent data indicates a significant increase in international capital confidence towards the Chinese market, as evidenced by the emergence of new foreign investors in A-share companies [1] - The return of foreign capital is seen as a logical outcome of valuation recovery, industrial upgrading, and global asset rebalancing, suggesting a long-term growth potential for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] New Foreign Investors - Traut Consulting has entered the top ten shareholders of Yara International with a holding of 852.85 thousand shares, representing 1.05% of the circulating shares, marking its first appearance in A-share companies [2] - The Brunei Investment Agency has also emerged as the ninth largest shareholder of China International Capital Corporation with a holding of 1,031.83 thousand shares, valued at approximately 381 million yuan, indicating its first entry into the top ten shareholders of an A-share company [2] Returning Foreign Players - The return of previously active foreign institutions is noted, such as the Korea Bank, which holds 182.13 thousand shares of Hezhong Intelligent, valued at 35.79 million yuan, marking its return after more than a year [3] - Other institutions like KB Asset and Jane Street Group have also reappeared in the top ten shareholders of A-share companies after extended absences, indicating a renewed interest in the market [3] Increased Attention on Chinese Market - The influx of new foreign investors and the return of established players reflect a growing interest in the Chinese market [4] - HSBC reported a significant increase in foreign investors' exposure to the Chinese A-share market, marking the third consecutive month of net growth in foreign investment [4] - The International Institute of Finance noted that foreign investors injected nearly 45 billion dollars into emerging market stocks and bonds in August, with a substantial portion directed towards the Chinese market [4] Positive Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates a sustained upward trend in the Chinese stock market, projecting a 30% increase in major indices by the end of 2027 [5] - JPMorgan also expresses optimism regarding the performance of the CSI 300 index over the next year, highlighting that leading companies in healthcare, finance, and entertainment sectors are currently valued reasonably compared to their historical medians [5]

Group 1 - Recent data indicates a significant increase in international capital confidence towards the Chinese market, with new foreign investors appearing in A-share companies' top shareholder lists [1][2] - Notable new foreign shareholders include Traut Consulting and Brunei Investment Agency, marking their first appearances in A-share companies' top ten shareholders [2][3] - The return of established foreign investors, such as Korea's Bank and Jane Street, highlights a renewed interest in the A-share market after periods of absence [4][6] Group 2 - HSBC reports a substantial increase in foreign investors' exposure to the Chinese A-share market, marking the third consecutive month of net growth in foreign investment [6][7] - Key factors driving foreign capital inflow include a clear policy bottom, attractive valuations, and a global capital reallocation from dollar assets to non-dollar assets [7] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan express optimism about the future performance of the Chinese stock market, predicting significant index growth and improved valuations in various sectors [7]

Core Insights - Recent data indicates a significant increase in international capital confidence towards the Chinese market, with new foreign investors appearing in A-share companies' top shareholder lists [1][3][9] - The return of foreign capital is seen as a logical outcome of valuation recovery, industrial upgrades, and global asset rebalancing, suggesting a long-term growth potential for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][9] Group 1: New Foreign Investors - Traut Consulting has entered the top ten shareholders of Yara International with a holding of 8.5285 million shares, representing 1.05% of the circulating shares, marking its first appearance in A-share companies [3] - Brunei Investment Agency has also emerged as a new foreign investor, holding 10.3183 million shares in China International Capital Corporation, valued at approximately 38.1 million yuan, also its first appearance in A-share companies [4] Group 2: Returning Foreign Players - Korean Bank has reappeared in the top ten shareholders of Hezhong Intelligent, holding 1.8213 million shares valued at 3.57885 million yuan, marking its return after more than a year [6] - Jane Street, a quantitative trading firm, has returned to the top ten shareholders of several A-share companies after a two-year absence, indicating renewed interest in the Chinese market [7][9] Group 3: Factors Driving Foreign Capital Return - The increase in foreign investment is attributed to three key factors: clarity in policy bottom, attractive valuations, and a strategic global capital rebalancing from dollar assets to non-U.S. assets [10] - HSBC reported a significant increase in foreign investors' exposure to the Chinese A-share market, with net growth for three consecutive months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [9][10] Group 4: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a sustainable upward trend in the Chinese stock market, expecting major indices to rise by approximately 30% by the end of 2027, driven by factors such as AI's impact on profitability and corporate competitiveness [11] - JPMorgan also expresses optimism for the CSI 300 index, noting that leading companies in healthcare, finance, and entertainment sectors are currently valued reasonably compared to historical medians, suggesting potential for future valuation increases [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by rising potassium fertilizer prices domestically and internationally [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.87 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 163.0% [1]. - The adjusted net profit also stood at 1.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 164.6% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 71.4% and 2.7%, respectively [1]. - The net profit for Q3 was 510 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 104.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.0% [1]. Market Dynamics - The rise in potassium fertilizer prices has been attributed to a combination of domestic and international factors, including production cuts by leading overseas producers and increased trade costs due to geopolitical risks [1]. - The average market price of potassium chloride in China for Q3 2025 was approximately 3,269 yuan per ton, up 9.2% from the previous quarter [1]. - Internationally, the spot price in Vancouver for Q3 was about 313 USD per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.0% [1]. Production and Sales - The production and sales volume of potassium chloride remained relatively stable, with a total production of 1.499 million tons and sales of 1.524 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 13.2% and 22.8%, respectively [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company produced 485,000 tons of potassium chloride, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter changes of +1.2% and -4.6%, respectively [2]. - Sales in Q3 reached 479,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.4% [2]. Capacity Expansion - The company is progressing with its potassium fertilizer expansion project in Laos, which is expected to significantly increase its production capacity to 3 million tons, potentially achieving a sales scale of 5 million tons [2]. - The completion of two million-ton projects will further enhance the company's market position in the potassium fertilizer sector [2]. Shareholder Structure - In July 2025, the largest shareholder changed, with Huineng Group acquiring 14.05% of the company's shares, improving the governance structure [2]. - The company also agreed to purchase a 28.1447% stake in agricultural potassium resources from Zhongnong Group, achieving 100% control over the 179 mine [2]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.95 billion yuan, 2.89 billion yuan, and 3.70 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 105.0%, 48.5%, and 27.7%, respectively [3]. - Based on the closing price on October 29, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are estimated to be 21, 14, and 11 times for the respective years [3].

Core Viewpoint - As of October 31, 2025, Yara International (000893) closed at 41.77 yuan, down 1.49%, with a trading volume of 97,000 hands and a transaction amount of 410 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's main revenue reached 3.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.76% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.363 billion yuan, up 163.01% year-on-year [3] - The third quarter alone saw a main revenue of 1.345 billion yuan, a 71.37% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 508 million yuan, up 104.69% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Market Position and Ratios - Yara International's total market value is 38.598 billion yuan, ranking 4th in the fertilizer industry [3] - The company has a net asset of 13.061 billion yuan, ranking 5th in the industry [3] - The company's gross profit margin is 58.91%, significantly higher than the industry average of 20.04%, ranking 3rd [3] Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - On October 31, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 5.0983 million yuan, accounting for 1.24% of the total transaction amount [1] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 12.9972 million yuan, representing 3.17% of the total transaction amount [1] - Over the past five days, the stock has seen fluctuations in fund flows, with varying net inflows and outflows from main and retail investors [2]

注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征 个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 月差 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 仓单数量合计（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1000 2000 3000 主要仓库、厂库仓单数量（张） 432处 安阳万庄库 衡水棉麻库 宁陵史丹利库 中农云仓库 河北东光库 云图控股库 中农控股库 晋控天庆库 中原大化库 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -180 -80 20 120 220 320 420 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866.HK) announced a share buyback on October 31, spending HKD 2.847 million to repurchase 389,000 shares [1] Group 1 - The company executed a buyback of 389,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 2.847 million [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 10.0, indicating a potential upside of 36% from the current price of HKD 7.35 [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached RMB 17.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, while the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 840 million, down 12.8% year-on-year. The performance was in line with expectations [2][4]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to a decrease in urea prices and systematic maintenance at key production bases, which limited the release of core product capacity and increased production costs [2][3]. - New projects are expected to significantly reduce production costs, leading to a potential surge in profitability as these low-cost capacities are gradually released [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Urea's average selling price for the first three quarters was RMB 1,703 per ton, down 16% year-on-year, with sales volume decreasing by 4% to 2.668 million tons. The gross margin for urea fell by 7 percentage points to 22% [3]. - The company experienced a total production reduction of approximately 269,000 tons across key products, impacting profits by about RMB 230 million [2][3]. - The new phase of the Jiujiang base commenced operations in Q3 2025, utilizing more efficient and environmentally friendly technology, which is expected to lower overall production costs by 10% [4]. Financial Projections - The forecasted sales revenue for FY2025 is RMB 25.44 billion, with a growth rate of 10% [5]. - The projected net profit for FY2025 is RMB 1.09 billion, reflecting a decline of 25% compared to the previous year [5]. - The gross margin is expected to be 16.3% in FY2025, with a net profit margin of 4.3% [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Current sentiment in the urea market has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics [1] - Urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the current situation of strong supply and weak demand [1] - Short - term upward drivers for urea are insufficient, with large supply and inventory pressures [1] - Suggest holding previously sold out - of - the - money put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1627 yuan/ton on October 30, down 17 yuan (-1.03%) from October 29 [1] - UR05: 1705 yuan/ton on October 30, down 12 yuan (-0.70%) from October 29 [1] - UR09: 1735 yuan/ton on October 30, down 12 yuan (-0.69%) from October 29 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1600 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Shanxi: 1470 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Henan: 1580 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Hebei: 1620 yuan/ton on October 30, down 10 yuan (-0.61%) from October 29 [1] - Northeast: 1610 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Jiangsu: 1590 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 105 yuan/ton on October 30, up 12 yuan from October 29 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: - 78 yuan/ton on October 30, down 5 yuan from October 29 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1030 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 930 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 2900 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2500 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Melamine prices in Shandong: 5084 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Melamine prices in Jiangsu: 5150 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] Important Information - Urea futures main contract 2601: opening price 1648 yuan/ton, highest price 1648 yuan/ton, lowest price 1618 yuan/ton, closing price 1627 yuan/ton, settlement price 1632 yuan/ton, and持仓量 270109 hands [1] Trading Strategy - Hold previously sold out - of - the - money put options [1] Potential Drivers to Watch - Old device renovation expectations in the chemical industry on the supply side [1] - New export quota issuance [1]