南华期货尿素产业周报 ——多单持有 2026/1/25 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 * 远端交易预期 1.1 核心矛盾 从投产格局以及产业周期来看，尿素仍然处于不断释放新增产能导致供应过剩的阶段，在这样的阶段下， 尿素2026年的价格中枢将进一步下移，但下跌的过程中受到出口政策的托底，总得来看2026年尿素价格将依 靠出口政策缓解压力。需求节奏来看，上半年对应农需旺季，大概率暂停出口，上半年尿素行情将依据需求 节奏涨跌，进入下半年后，依靠出口政策缓解国内供应压力，价格走势偏政策主导。对于尿素05合约而言， 对应国内需求旺季，存有涨价预期，尿素价格持续上涨。但伴随价格上行，下游逐步抵触，现货成交转弱， 预计尿素价格短期回调，顶部区间参考1850-1950之间，建议多单持有。 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 2026 2 4 6 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) is expected to report a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, driven by higher production, sales volume, and rising sales prices of potash fertilizers [2][3]. Group 1: Trading Information - As of January 23, 2026, Yara International closed at 59.82 yuan, down 0.33%, with a turnover rate of 1.74%, a trading volume of 141,200 shares, and a transaction value of 838 million yuan [1]. - On January 23, the net outflow of main funds was 33.46 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 34.71 million yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Earnings Disclosure - Yara International forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 between 1.66 billion yuan and 1.97 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 75.00% to 107.00% [2][3]. - The expected earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be between 1.82 yuan and 2.16 yuan [2]. - The growth in earnings is primarily attributed to increased potash production, higher sales volume, and rising sales prices, which have led to an increase in gross profit margin [2][3].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：震荡中枢上移 | | • | 本周(20260115-0121)，中国尿素生产企业产量：142.38万吨，较上期涨1.87万吨，环比涨1.33%。周期内新增3家企业装置停车，4家停车装置恢 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 复生产，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量小幅增加。下周，中国尿素周产量预计143-144万吨附近，较本期小幅增加。下个周期暂无企 业装置计划停车，4-6家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量增幅有限。（隆众 | | | | 资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，东北地区基层现金流暖于去年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易商及复合肥厂连续补库，带动内蒙地区工厂订单数量增加， | | 需求 | | ...

逢高空配 尿素周报 2026/01/24 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 01 周度评估 行情走势 图1：尿素指数 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 2025-01-01 2025-01-08 2025-01-15 2025-01-22 2025-01-29 2025-02-05 2025-02-12 2025-02-19 2025-02-26 2025-03-05 2025-03-12 2025-03-19 2025-03-26 2025-04-02 2025-04-09 2025-04-16 2025-04-23 2025-04-30 2025-05-07 2025-05-14 2025-05-21 2025-05-28 2025-06- ...

Group 1 - The company expects a positive net profit for the year 2025, with an increase of over 50% compared to the previous year [1] - The performance improvement is attributed to stable production of potassium fertilizer, increased sales volume, and rising prices of potassium fertilizer in both international and domestic markets [1] - The preliminary financial data is based on the company's internal estimates and has not been audited by an accounting firm [2]

Core Insights - Colombia's total imports reached $5.8899 billion in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, primarily driven by a recovery in manufacturing imports [1] - China remains the largest source of imports for Colombia, accounting for 27.4% of total imports from January to November [1] Import Sources - Following China, the next largest import sources for Colombia are the United States, Mexico, Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan [1] Growth in Specific Product Categories - Significant growth in imports from China includes: - Vehicles for passenger transport, which increased by 90% [1] - Nitrogen-containing minerals or chemical fertilizers, which surged by 428.2% [1] - Motorcycles and bicycles, which rose by 52.1% [1] - Self-propelled mechanical shovels, excavators, and loaders, which saw an increase of 444% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) has released its 2025 annual performance forecast, indicating a significant increase in net profit driven by higher production, sales volume, and sales prices of potash fertilizers [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 23, 2026, Yara International's stock closed at 59.82 CNY, down 0.33% from the previous trading day [1] - The stock opened at 59.01 CNY, reached a high of 60.96 CNY, and a low of 58.16 CNY, with a trading volume of 8.38 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.74% [1] Group 2: Financial Forecast - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 166 million CNY and 197 million CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 75% to 107% [1] - The net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to grow by 86% to 121% year-on-year [1] - The anticipated growth in performance is primarily due to increased potash fertilizer production, sales volume, and rising sales prices, leading to an improvement in gross margin [1]

（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网讯 1月23日，金正大在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至目前，公司子公司马路槽磷矿 正处于建设期，正在向相关审批部门办理审批手续，具体投产时间尚存在不确定性，请投资者注意投资 风险。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Yara International has forecasted a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a range of 166,000 million to 197,000 million yuan, which represents a growth of 75.00% to 107.00% compared to the previous year's net profit of 95,046.59 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The expected net profit for 2025 is between 166,000 million yuan and 197,000 million yuan [2] - The projected growth rate of net profit is between 75.00% and 107.00% compared to the previous year [2] - The previous year's net profit was reported at 95,046.59 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The company China Heartland Fertilizer (01866.HK) announced a share buyback on January 23, 2023, spending HKD 8.843 million to repurchase 874,000 shares [1]