专用机械 分析师：刘智 登记编码：S0730520110001 liuzhi@ccnew.com 021-50586775 国内需求放缓业绩承压，海外拓展持续发 力 ——一拖股份(601038)2025 年中报点评 证券研究报告-中报点评 买入(维持) 市场数据(2025-09-09) 基础数据(2025-06-30) | 每股净资产(元) | 6.85 | | --- | --- | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 0.35 | | 毛利率(%) | 16.03 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 10.00 | | 资产负债率(%) | 45.94 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 112,364.53/112,364.53 | | B 股/H 股(万股) | 0.00/39,194.00 | 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -18% -10% -1% 7% 16% 25% 33% 42% 2024.09 2025.01 2025.05 2025.09 一拖股份 沪深300 相关报告 | 收盘价(元) | 13.13 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低( ...

Group 1 - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index opened high and closed at 1259.10 points, with an increase of 1.09% and a fluctuation of 2.14%, with a total trading volume of approximately 711.4 billion yuan [1] - Most stocks on the Sci-Tech Board rose, with 251 stocks increasing in value. High-priced stocks generally performed well, while low-priced stocks showed a downward trend [1] - In specific sectors, semiconductor and component stocks were active, while electrical equipment and specialized machinery stocks experienced the largest declines [1] Group 2 - On September 10, excluding one suspended stock, the remaining 588 stocks on the Sci-Tech Board had an average increase of 0%, an average turnover rate of 2.81%, a total trading volume of 197.6 billion yuan, and an average fluctuation of 3.78% [1] - In individual stock performance, Jiayuan Technology surged by 20%, leading the component stocks, while Daqing Energy fell by 8.05%, marking the largest decline [2] - In terms of trading volume, Cambrian Technology topped the list with a trading volume of 176.6 billion yuan, while Shuangyuan Technology had the lowest trading volume at 896.5 million yuan [3] - Regarding turnover rates, Aggregated Materials had the highest turnover rate at 19.96%, while Longteng Optoelectronics had the lowest at 0.18% [4]

Group 1 - The Sci-Tech 50 Index opened slightly higher on September 5 and experienced significant gains throughout the day, closing at 1268.55 points with an increase of 3.39% and a trading range of 4.43%, with a total trading volume of approximately 74.74 billion [1] - The Sci-Tech Composite Index rose by 3.92% to close at 1544.30 points, with a total trading volume of 237.8 billion [1] - Excluding suspended stocks, the remaining 586 stocks on the Sci-Tech Board showed a general upward trend, with an average increase of 3.68% and an average turnover rate of 3.67%, totaling a trading volume of 237.8 billion and an average fluctuation of 5.54% [1] Group 2 - Individual stock performance saw stocks like Yuchen Intelligent, Liyuanheng, and Tianyue Advanced hitting the daily limit, while Qianyan Biology experienced a significant drop of 16.34%, the largest decline [2] - In terms of trading volume, Hanwujing led with a trading volume of 24.71 billion, while *ST Guandian (rights protection) had the lowest at 1.08 million [3] - The highest turnover rate was recorded by Xinyu Ren at 35.23%, while Longteng Optoelectronics had the lowest turnover rate at 0.38% [3]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index opened lower on September 4 and experienced significant fluctuations, ultimately closing down at 1226.98 points, with a decline of 6.09% and a trading range of 7.13% [1] - The overall Sci-Tech Innovation Index also fell by 5.19%, closing at 1486.04 points, with a total trading volume of approximately 275.6 billion [1] - Excluding suspended stocks, the remaining 586 stocks on the Sci-Tech board mostly declined, with an average drop of 3.12% and an average turnover rate of 4.13% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Hangke Technology saw a notable increase of 9.89%, ranking among the top gainers [2] - Dongxin Technology experienced a significant drop of 17.04%, marking the largest decline [2] Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - Cambrian's trading volume reached 28.01 billion, leading the market, while ST Pava had a trading volume of only 1.174 million, the lowest [3] - Yingshi Innovation had the highest turnover rate at 20.14%, while Longteng Optoelectronics recorded the lowest turnover rate at 0.35% [4]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index opened lower on September 3, closing at 1306.48 points with a decline of 1.64% and a trading range of 2.19% [1] - The Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index also experienced fluctuations, closing down 1.06% at 1567.40 points, with a total trading volume of 235.7 billion [1] - Excluding suspended stocks, the remaining 586 stocks on the Sci-Tech board showed an average decline of 1.22% and an average turnover rate of 3.63% [1] Sector Performance - High-priced stocks generally fell, while low-priced stocks exhibited mixed performance; electric equipment and chemical pharmaceuticals sectors were active, while specialized machinery and software services sectors faced the largest declines [1] Individual Stock Performance - Haibo Sichuang reached the daily limit up, leading in gains, while Awai New Materials saw a significant drop of 15.31%, marking the largest decline [2] - Cambrian's trading volume was the highest at 19.9 billion, while ST Pava had the lowest trading volume at 714.2 million [3] - Ying Shi Innovation had the highest turnover rate at 18.84%, while Longteng Optoelectronics had the lowest at 0.31% [4]

Group 1 - The current market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail investors, with a focus on industrial trends and performance [1] - As products issued in 2020-2021 approach breakeven, a transition between old and new capital is expected, requiring new allocation themes for market continuation [1] - Recommended sectors for investment include resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industries, with a focus on the consumer electronics sector in September [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the A-share market is highly optimistic due to capital market reforms, stable liquidity, improved social attitudes, and enhanced micro trading structures [2] - Multiple factors are expected to support the performance of Chinese assets, with a tactical overweight view on A-shares [2] - The acceleration of China's transformation and the decline in opportunity costs for the stock market are seen as key drivers for a "transformation bull" market [2] Group 3 - In light of the market reaching a 10-year high, the focus should be on sectors with the greatest marginal improvement in fundamentals for early positioning [3] - Key areas to watch include industrial metals and capital goods, benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery and investment acceleration [3] - The long-term asset side of insurance is expected to benefit from a bottoming of capital returns, while brokerage firms are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [3]

Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares have shown strong performance since August, driven by improved global manufacturing sentiment and rising domestic demand[3] - The overall valuation of the TMT and military sectors has reached historical highs, indicating limited room for further expansion[4] - The shift from small-cap growth represented by the National Index 2000 to large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext Index is evident, reflecting accelerated industry rotation[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector's profitability is expected to improve, with the lower limit of net profit margins confirmed by February 2025[4] - As of July, the electricity consumption in the secondary industry has shown a continuous recovery for five months, indicating a positive trend in production activity[4] - The average ROE for non-financial companies in the A-share market is projected to improve in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, suggesting a broadening of profit recovery across sectors[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery, such as industrial metals and capital goods, as they are expected to see increased demand[5] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from capital returns reaching a bottom, alongside brokerage firms[5] - Opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors are emerging, particularly in food and beverage and electric equipment, as large-cap stocks begin to outperform[5] Group 4: Risks - There is a risk that domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations, which could impact market performance[6] - A significant downturn in the global economy could also pose risks to the A-share market[6]

Group 1 - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index opened high on August 18, fluctuated upwards, and closed significantly higher with a final value of 1124.82 points, marking a gain of 2.14% and a trading range of 2.98%, with a total trading volume of approximately 68.52 billion yuan [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Composite Index also opened high and closed up 2.41% at 1457.41 points, with a total trading volume of 256.9 billion yuan. Excluding suspended stocks, 587 stocks on the Sci-Tech board mostly rose, with an average increase of 2.65% and an average turnover rate of 4.92% [2] - In terms of individual stock performance, Nanjing New Pharmaceutical and Shunlian Bio reached the daily limit, while Kangzhong Medical saw a decline of 7.03%, the largest drop among stocks [3] Group 2 - In terms of trading volume, Cambrian Technology led with a trading volume of 11.09 billion yuan, while *ST Guandian had the lowest at 1.45 million yuan. In terms of turnover rate, Yitang Co. had the highest at 39.46%, while Longteng Optoelectronics had the lowest at 4.92% [4]

Group 1 - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index experienced an upward trend on August 15, closing at 1101.29 points with a gain of 1.43% and a fluctuation of 2.53% [1] - The total trading volume for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached approximately 531.6 billion yuan, with 547 stocks rising [1] - In the sector performance, semiconductor, specialized machinery, and component stocks were notably active, while some chemical and biopharmaceutical stocks saw significant declines [1] Group 2 - On August 15, the average increase for 589 stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board was 2.77%, with an average turnover rate of 3.93% and a total trading volume of 204.4 billion yuan [1] - The stocks with the highest gains included Jiehuate, Zhongyou Technology, and Magu Technology, each rising by 20%, while Mailan De experienced the largest drop at 7.26% [1][2] - In terms of trading volume, Hanwujing led with 10.17 billion yuan, while *ST Guandian had the lowest at 1.309 million yuan [2]

Core Points - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index experienced a high of 3% intraday before closing at 1085.74 points, with a gain of 0.75% and a total trading volume of approximately 656.5 billion yuan [1] - The majority of stocks on the Sci-Tech board declined, with over 510 stocks falling, while high-priced stocks showed mixed performance and low-priced stocks mostly decreased [1] - In the detailed sector performance, certain semiconductor and biopharmaceutical stocks were active, while specialized machinery and software service stocks faced the largest declines [1] - On August 14, the average decline for 589 stocks on the Sci-Tech board was 2.26%, with an average turnover rate of 4.19% and a total trading volume of 218 billion yuan, alongside an average volatility of 5.03% [1] - Notable individual stock performances included Fang Technology and Botao Biology, which rose by 20%, while Dingyang Technology saw a decline of 12.10%, marking the largest drop [1] Trading Volume - Cambrian's trading volume reached 14.04 billion yuan, ranking first, while Delinhai's trading volume was 2.218 million yuan, ranking last [2] Turnover Rate - Longtu Light Mask had the highest turnover rate at 36.92%, while Longteng Optoelectronics had the lowest turnover rate at 0.25% [3]