经济观察网11月5日，中物联网站发布数据，2025年10月份为50.6%，较上月回升1个百分点。从分项指 数来看，同上月相比，业务量指数、设施利用率指数、期末库存指数、平均库存周转次数指数有所上 升，升幅在0.6至3.8个百分点之间；企业员工指数、业务活动预期指数有所下降，降幅分别为0.4和3.4个 百分点。 ...

Core Insights - The China Warehousing Index for October 2025 is reported at 50.6%, indicating a recovery of 1 percentage point from the previous month, suggesting an increase in industry activity [1] - The business volume index, facility utilization index, end inventory index, and average inventory turnover index have all shown increases ranging from 0.6 to 3.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][2] - Despite a decline in the employee index and business activity expectation index, both remain in the expansion zone, indicating positive future confidence among enterprises [1] Business Volume Index - The business volume index stands at 52.7%, up by 2.2 percentage points from last month [2] - Chemical products, coal, agricultural products, and cotton have business volume indices above 50%, while steel and pharmaceuticals are below 50% [2] Facility Utilization Index - The facility utilization index is at 51.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Non-ferrous metals, coal, machinery, agricultural products, and cotton have indices above 50%, while steel and home appliances are below 50% [2] End Inventory Index - The end inventory index is reported at 49.4%, up by 1.5 percentage points from last month [2] - Steel, non-ferrous metals, and coal have indices above 50%, while chemical products, food, and home appliances are below 50% [2] Average Inventory Turnover Index - The average inventory turnover index is at 51.2%, showing an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Coal, daily necessities, and home appliances have indices above 50%, while steel and non-ferrous metals are below 50% [2] Employee Index and Business Activity Expectation Index - The employee index is at 51.6%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from last month [2] - The business activity expectation index is at 51.1%, down by 3.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]

（文章来源：第一财经） 中国物流与采购联合会与中储发展股份有限公司联合调查的中国仓储指数，2025年10月份为50.6%，较 上月回升1个百分点，重回50%以上的扩张区间。从分项指数来看，同上月相比，业务量指数、设施利 用率指数、期末库存指数、平均库存周转次数指数有所上升，升幅在0.6至3.8个百分点之间；企业员工 指数、业务活动预期指数有所下降，降幅分别为0.4和3.4个百分点。业务量指数为52.7%，较上月上升 2.2个百分点。分品种来看，化工产品、煤炭、农副产品、棉麻等品种的业务量指数高于50%，钢材、 医药等品种的业务量指数低于50%。 ...

Group 1: Economic Trends - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index increased to 5.3% as of October 19, up 1.19 points from the previous week [2] - Port container throughput showed a slight rebound, with a 3.6% increase compared to the previous week, while the year-on-year growth rate decreased to 4.3% [2][27] - Oil prices rebounded significantly, with WTI crude oil closing at $61.5 per barrel, up 6.9%, and Brent crude at $65.9 per barrel, up 7.6% [2][44] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger cars turned negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5.7% as of October 18, compared to a 6% increase in September [3][16] - The growth rate of non-durable goods consumption declined, with express delivery volume showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [3][16] - Real estate sales saw a significant drop, with residential sales in 67 cities down 23% year-on-year as of October 24, compared to a 1.2% decline in September [3][16] Group 3: Production and Industry - Cement dispatch rates fluctuated, with a rate of 38.4% as of October 17, slightly up from the previous week [19] - Industrial production showed a decline in coal throughput at Qinhuangdao Port, with a year-on-year increase of only 4.6% as of October 24, down from 19% in September [19][23] - The construction sector's apparent consumption of rebar was down 14% year-on-year as of October 24 [19] Group 4: Policy and Investment - New policy financial tools have been issued, totaling over 330 billion yuan, expected to drive total project investment of 4.8 trillion yuan [4][49] - The focus of the recent Central Committee meeting shifted from "supply-side reform" to "building a unified market," indicating a change in policy direction [4][23] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for modernization in industry governance during the recent meeting [4][23] Group 5: Trade Dynamics - The number of ships from China to the U.S. saw a significant year-on-year decline of 28.6% as of October 25 [27][29] - The overall import value from the U.S. showed a slight rebound, while imports from China remained at a low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 24.8% [28][29] - Container shipping rates for exports from Shanghai increased by 7.1% in the week ending October 24 [27] Group 6: Price Movements - Prices for pork and eggs continued to decline, with pork prices down 1.7% and egg prices down 2% [45] - The overall commodity price index increased by 0.9%, while global commodity prices rose significantly, with the RJ/CRB index up 3.3% [43][44] - The price of industrial silicon futures decreased by 0.5%, while polysilicon futures dropped by 4.1% [44][45]

Group 1: Company Developments - Rivian plans to lay off over 600 employees due to increasing market challenges in the electric vehicle sector [1] - Tesla aims to increase its vehicle production to 3 million units within the next two years, driven by the expansion of its full self-driving technology [3] - Xiaomi has introduced a tax subsidy plan for its vehicles to address unexpected order volumes and delivery issues, offering up to 15,000 yuan in tax relief [6] - TikTok is undergoing structural adjustments and is actively recruiting high-end talent, with multiple positions offering annual salaries exceeding 1 million yuan [7] - EVE Energy expects to launch the next generation of solid-state batteries in the fourth quarter, while also exploring semi-solid battery production [10] Group 2: Industry Trends - Taobao has officially launched cross-border direct mail services for furniture, covering markets such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia, with over 1 million items available for direct shipping [4] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Union has initiated an "anti-involution" campaign to promote high-quality development in the warehousing industry, advocating for fair competition and price stability [8] - The French highway operator has successfully tested dynamic inductive charging technology for electric heavy-duty trucks, which could enhance decarbonization in transportation [11] Group 3: Financing Activities - Pony.ai plans to go public in Hong Kong within two weeks, aiming to raise over $500 million [12] - The parent company of the large model Kimi, Moonlight Dark Side, is set to complete a new round of financing amounting to several hundred million dollars [13]

Industry Regulation & Competition - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) initiated a proposal against "involutionary" competition to promote high-quality development in the warehousing industry [1] - Warehousing operators must strictly follow the "Price Law" and base pricing on production and operating costs and market supply and demand [1] - The industry should consciously maintain market price stability and jointly create a fair and orderly competitive environment [1] - The industry should resolutely resist vicious competition involving low quality and low prices [1] - In the entire bidding process, it is strictly forbidden to participate in bidding with quotations below cost [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing has launched an initiative to oppose "involution-style" competition and promote high-quality development in the warehousing industry [1] Group 1: Initiative Requirements - Warehousing operators are required to strictly adhere to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, maintaining fairness, legality, and integrity in pricing [1] - Pricing should be based on production and operational costs as well as market supply and demand, ensuring the exercise of autonomous pricing rights and the maintenance of market price stability [1] - There is a strong emphasis on resisting low-quality and low-price vicious competition, with a prohibition on bidding below cost during the entire bidding process [1] Group 2: Strategic Directions - Warehousing operators are encouraged to focus on digital transformation as a core strategic direction [1] - The initiative promotes the enhancement of operational efficiency and core competitiveness through technological upgrades, process optimization, and data empowerment [1] - The goal is to fundamentally establish a solid foundation for the industry to counteract "involution" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by the Xinjiang Korla Municipal Political Consultative Conference focused on promoting the development and growth of the private economy, aiming to provide targeted advice for high-quality development [3][6]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The 17th Standing Committee meeting of the 11th Xinjiang Korla Municipal Political Consultative Conference took place on October 21, 2023, discussing strategies to enhance the private economy [3]. - Key officials, including the Secretary of the Political Consultative Conference and the Deputy Mayor, participated in the meeting, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development for private enterprises [3][6]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - Korla City has been optimizing the policy environment to support private enterprises, implementing measures such as the "Thirty Measures for Promoting High-Quality Economic Development" and "Twelve Measures for Supporting Technological Innovation and Talent Development" [4][6]. - The city has established a "High-Efficiency Handling" service model, which has processed 21,824 cases this year, streamlining administrative procedures for businesses [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - Common challenges faced by private enterprises include a lack of dedicated R&D teams and low R&D investment, which hinder product and technological innovation [6]. - Recommendations from committee members include increasing government incentives for R&D investment, enhancing financing support for small and micro enterprises, and improving policy communication and market access for private businesses [6][7][9]. Group 4: Government Response - The government is committed to supporting the work of the Political Consultative Conference and will actively consider the suggestions made during the meeting to facilitate the growth of the private economy [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. The first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region led to the withdrawal of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, and Brent crude fell to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and was expected to do the same in December. Since September, OPEC+ net crude oil exports increased significantly, and Russian crude oil exports also rose. Global floating storage of crude oil increased substantially. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased, and production rose while the number of drilling rigs decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the fall of diesel cracking. Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From October 10 to 16, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $58.90 to $57.46, a decrease of $0.81; Brent crude oil price decreased from $62.73 to $61.06, a decline of $0.85; Oman crude oil price decreased from $62.55 to $62.10 (data on October 16 is missing); SC crude oil price increased by $0.10; domestic gasoline price dropped by $50, and domestic diesel price decreased by $28. Other related products also showed different price changes [3] 3.2 Daily News - Affected by the weakening of Brent crude oil and firm freight rates, the price of Russian Urals crude oil fell below the EU price cap of $47.60 per barrel for the first time. Deutsche Bank believes that the UK economy is losing momentum. The US Treasury Secretary hopes that Japan will stop importing Russian energy. Indian refiners expect a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports. Trump said that Modi promised that India would stop buying Russian oil, but it would be a process [3][4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending October 10, US crude oil exports increased by 876,000 barrels per day to 4.466 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 700 barrels to 13.636 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.5 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.8%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.5% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 400,000 barrels to 408 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 878,000 barrels per day to 5.255 million barrels per day. US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels [4] 3.4 Weekly View - Due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and the trade war, oil prices declined. Crude oil supply continued to increase, and OPEC planned to increase production. Global floating storage of crude oil increased, and refinery profits declined. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. There is an oversupply of crude oil, and the absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]

Core Insights - The latest economic data released by multiple departments indicates a steady improvement in the innovation vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China, with significant growth in various sectors including warehousing, logistics, and consumption [1][3]. Group 1: SME Innovation and Economic Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the overall economic operation of SMEs in China remained stable, with a notable increase in innovation vitality. The value added of industrial SMEs grew by 7.6% year-on-year, outpacing large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [3]. - The "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" SMEs, referred to as "little giant" enterprises, saw an 8.7% year-on-year increase in value added [9]. Group 2: Warehousing and Logistics Activity - In September 2025, China's warehousing business activity showed signs of recovery, with the warehousing index rising to 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new orders index returned to the expansion zone, indicating active demand in the warehousing sector [6]. - A total of 169 new international air cargo routes were opened in the first nine months of 2025, with 17 routes added in September alone, enhancing the connectivity of international air freight [10][12]. Group 3: Consumer Activity During Holidays - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, UnionPay and NetUnion processed over 415 billion payment transactions, an increase of 95.23 billion transactions compared to the previous year. The total transaction amount reached 13.26 trillion yuan, up by 1.86 trillion yuan [15]. - The postal and express delivery industry processed over 72 billion packages during the holiday period, averaging over 9 billion packages per day, reflecting a strong consumer demand [18]. Group 4: Upcoming Trade Events - The 138th Canton Fair is scheduled to take place from October 15 to November 4, 2025, in Guangzhou, featuring a record total of 74,600 exhibition booths and over 32,000 participating enterprises, with more than 3,600 companies making their debut [18].