Company Overview - CICC maintains the EPS forecast for Tmall (06110) at 0.21/0.26 HKD for FY26/27, with the current stock price corresponding to 12/10 times FY26/27 P/E, maintaining an outperform rating [1] - The target price is raised by 10% to 3.40 HKD, corresponding to 15/12 times FY26/27 P/E, indicating a 19% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Recent Performance - In Q1 FY26 (March to May), Tmall's total sales in retail and wholesale declined in the mid-single digits year-on-year, consistent with the company's expectations [2][3] - The retail channel's sales decline was less severe than that of the wholesale channel, primarily due to a double-digit drop in same-store traffic [3] - The total sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the end of February, and by 12.3% year-on-year, although the average sales area per store continued to grow year-on-year [3] - Online sales grew year-on-year, with online direct sales accounting for approximately 40% of total direct sales [3] Inventory and Discounts - By the end of May, the total inventory decreased year-on-year, with the inventory-to-sales ratio remaining stable, aligning with management's expectations for inventory optimization [3] - The retail business experienced deeper discounts year-on-year due to inventory optimization and an increase in online business share, although the extent of discounting eased compared to the previous quarter [3] Category Performance - The professional sports category outperformed the overall market, while the mass sports category performed at an average level, and the sports leisure category faced relatively greater growth pressure [3] Future Outlook - In Q2 FY26, offline sales continue to be pressured by weak customer traffic, and online channel competition remains intense, particularly during the 618 shopping festival [4] - Management expects improvements in some brand orders in FY26 as product optimization and new elements are gradually introduced [4] - The company maintains its guidance for FY26, expecting net profit to remain flat year-on-year, with an improvement in net profit margin [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q1 fiscal 2025 were $1,350 million, down 0.9% year-over-year, resulting in a negative 3.7% comparable sales (comp) [13][26] - Operating income was $69.3 million, with diluted EPS at $0.68 and adjusted EPS at $0.76 [30] - Gross margin improved to 34%, a 60 basis point increase from the previous year, driven by merchandise margin expansion and favorable shrink [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Footwear and apparel were the strongest categories, remaining roughly flat year-over-year, while sports and recreation also showed improvement [14][26] - Athletic footwear posted a positive 4.5% comp, led by brands like Nike and Brooks, while the Jordan brand exceeded internal expectations [27][19] - Outdoor category faced challenges, particularly in ammunition sales, but fishing and firearms showed solid increases [14][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company observed increased foot traffic from customers with household incomes over $100,000, indicating a shift towards value-seeking behavior among higher-income consumers [12][37] - E-commerce sales increased by 10% for the quarter, with penetration growing to over 10% [17][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on new store expansion, planning to open 20 to 25 new stores in fiscal 2025, with five locations opened in Q1 [15][16] - E-commerce growth is a key pillar, with efforts to enhance the online shopping experience and expand product offerings [17][18] - The company is leveraging technology, including RFID and handheld devices, to improve inventory accuracy and customer experience [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about navigating tariff impacts and consumer behavior, emphasizing the importance of value in a challenging economic environment [7][25] - The company is adjusting its guidance to account for various tariff scenarios, with sales expectations ranging from $5.97 billion to $6.26 billion [35][36] - Management noted the fragility of the U.S. consumer environment but remains confident in long-term growth strategies [24][25] Other Important Information - The company returned over $100 million of free cash flow to investors in Q1, including share repurchases and dividends [34] - Strategic actions taken to mitigate tariff impacts included pulling forward $85 million in domestic inventory receipts at pre-tariff prices [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Retention of higher-income consumers - Management noted that retention among higher-income consumers has been strong, with these customers shopping more frequently across various product categories [41][42] Question: Performance in May and impact of Jordan brand - Management indicated that while May showed a slight decline, the Jordan brand continues to perform well, and they remain optimistic about Q2 due to upcoming shopping events [45][46] Question: Health of the consumer and impact of weather - Management attributed softness in certain categories to weather conditions and noted that consumer behavior is cautious, with a focus on value [52][53] Question: Tariff outlook for fiscal 2026 - Management emphasized the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate future tariff impacts, but refrained from speculating on specific outcomes [80][81] Question: Gross margin guidance - Management explained that gross margin guidance remains unchanged due to effective inventory management and partnerships with suppliers to mitigate cost increases [56][63]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2025, with a significant drop in profit margins, while maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 135.0% [3][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 27.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.29 billion yuan, down 41.9% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at 0.21 yuan, with a proposed final dividend of 0.02 yuan per share and a special dividend of 0.12 yuan per share, alongside an interim dividend of 0.14 yuan per share [3]. - The company experienced a decline in gross margin by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, and operating profit margin decreased by 3.7 percentage points to 5.9% [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the main brands (Nike and Adidas) decreased by 6.1%, while other brand revenues fell by 9.9% [3]. - Retail and wholesale revenues accounted for 85.3% and 14.0% of total revenue, respectively, with retail revenue declining by 6.8% and wholesale by 5.8% [4]. Store Performance - The total number of stores decreased by 18.3%, with the company operating 5,020 stores as of February 2025 [4]. - The total sales area decreased by 12.4%, while the average sales area per store increased by 7.2% [4]. Cost and Cash Flow Management - The company reported a slight increase in expense ratio by 0.4 percentage points to 33.2%, with employee costs and rental expenses remaining stable [5]. - Inventory decreased by 4.5% to 6 billion yuan, and operating net cash flow increased by 20.0% to 3.76 billion yuan [5]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency by closing underperforming stores and focusing on online channels, including platform e-commerce and private domain operations [6]. - The company continues to expand its brand portfolio, becoming the exclusive operator for high-end running brand SOAR Running and top outdoor brand Norrøna in the Chinese market [6]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio exceeding 100% for the fiscal years 2023 to 2025, with an average dividend yield of 12.6% over the past three years [7].

Group 1: Real Estate Sector - The public fund's holdings in the real estate sector are significantly underweight, with a total market value of approximately 54.84 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.17% of net value and 0.79% of stock investment value, which is underweight by approximately 0.49 percentage points compared to the standard industry allocation [3] Group 2: Beike-W (2423.HK) - Beike, originally founded as Beijing Lianjia in 2001, has evolved into the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, launching its "one body and three wings" strategy in 2023 to transform from a traditional real estate service platform to a comprehensive living service provider [4] Group 3: Lenovo Group (0992.HK) - For FY2025, Lenovo reported revenues of 69.077 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with non-PC revenue accounting for nearly 47% of total revenue, up by approximately 5 percentage points year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.384 billion USD, up 37% year-on-year [5] Group 4: Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall's FY2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.6% and 41.9% respectively, with a payout ratio of 135%; the company plans to focus on improving operational efficiency and cost reduction in FY2026 amid external uncertainties [6] Group 5: Miniso (9896.HK) - In Q1 2025, Miniso achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 28.9%; adjusted net profit was 5.87 billion yuan, down 4.8% [7] Group 6: Lao Bai Xing (603883.SH) - Lao Bai Xing is focusing on integrating its digital intelligence system and exploring diversification for its second growth curve, while optimizing store layout and steadily developing its franchise business [8]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2025, with revenue at 27.01 billion RMB, down 6.6% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.29 billion RMB, down 41.9% [1][2] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 135.0%, exceeding the previous year's 100.9% [1][2] - The decline in profit was attributed to a significant drop in gross margin and a slight increase in expense ratio [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Main brand revenue (Nike + Adidas) decreased by 6.1%, while other brand revenue fell by 9.9% [1][2] - Revenue from retail, wholesale, and esports accounted for 85.3%, 14.0%, and 0.2% of total revenue, respectively, with retail and wholesale revenues down 6.8% and 5.8% year-on-year [2][3] - The total number of stores decreased by 18.3%, with a total of 5,020 stores as of February 2025 [2][3] Financial Metrics - Gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, primarily due to increased discounting [2][3] - The expense ratio increased by 0.4 percentage points to 33.2%, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 29.4%, 3.7%, and 0.1%, respectively [2][3] - Inventory decreased by 4.5% to 6 billion RMB, and accounts receivable decreased by 43.4% to 750 million RMB [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs amid weak consumer demand and declining foot traffic [3][4] - The company plans to expand its brand matrix and has become the exclusive operating partner for high-end running brand SOARRunning and top outdoor brand Norrona in China [3][4] - Profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 have been revised down by 21% and 26%, respectively, with expected EPS of 0.21, 0.23, and 0.26 for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 27.01 billion for FY25, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.29 billion, down 41.9% year-on-year, with FY25H2 showing a revenue and net profit decline of 5.4% and 53% respectively [1] - The expected dividend payout ratio for FY25 is 134%, exceeding market expectations [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from retail and wholesale channels for FY25 decreased by 6.8% and 5.8% year-on-year respectively [1] - Revenue from the main brand and other brands declined by 6.1% and 9.9% year-on-year respectively [1] Store Operations - As of the end of FY25, the company had 5,020 directly operated stores, with a net closure of 1,124 stores, including 258 new openings and 1,382 closures [1] - Total sales area decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, while sales area per store increased by 7.2%, reflecting the company's "one product one strategy" approach to store adjustments [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY25 decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, primarily due to increased retail discounts, with FY25H2 showing greater discounting than FY25H1 [1] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 4.8% [1] Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's inventory turnover days were 133 days, a decrease of 1 day year-on-year, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 3.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20% [2] - Cash at the end of the period was 2.59 billion, up from 1.96 billion in the same period last year [2] Brand Collaborations - The company is steadily advancing new brand collaborations, including the introduction of the high-end SOAR running brand to the Chinese market [2] - Collaborations with top outdoor brands for comprehensive operations in China are underway, alongside deepened partnerships with the Canadian high-end trail running brand nordaTM [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for FY26-28 has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 0.21, 0.25, and 0.30 respectively [2] - A target price of 3.45 HKD is set for FY26, based on a 15 times PE valuation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is maintaining a "buy" rating while focusing on high dividends and expanding in the running and outdoor sectors, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for FY2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025 revenue is projected at 27.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.286 billion yuan, down 41.9% [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 135% for the full year, with a cumulative payout ratio of 104.2% over the past six years [1] - Revised net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are 1.32 billion, 1.59 billion, and 1.85 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [1] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Main brand revenue for FY2025 is 23.31 billion yuan, a decline of 6.1%, accounting for 86.3% of total revenue, while other brand revenue is 3.5 billion yuan, down 9.9% [1] - Direct online sales have seen double-digit growth, increasing their share to 30-40% from 20-30% in FY2024 [1] - Retail and wholesale revenues decreased by 6.8% and 5.8%, respectively, indicating a challenging sales environment [1] Group 3: Store Management and Operations - As of FY2025, the number of stores is 5,020, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing low-efficiency stores [2] - The average sales area per store has increased by 7.2%, reflecting a strategy of tailored store adjustments [2] - Inventory management has improved, with inventory down 4.5% to 6 billion yuan and inventory turnover days at 134.9 days, a slight improvement [2] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - FY2025 gross margin is 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points, with a slight increase in expense ratio to 33.1% [2] - Operating profit margin (OPM) is 5.9%, and net profit margin is 4.8%, both showing declines [2] - The company has managed to maintain cash flow, with net cash increasing by 20% to 3.76 billion yuan, which is 2.6 times the net profit [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in FY2025, attributed to weak consumer demand and reduced foot traffic, but maintained strong cash flow supporting high dividend payouts [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025 revenue decreased by 6.6% year-on-year to 27.01 billion yuan, with retail channel revenue down 6.8% to 23.03 billion yuan and wholesale channel revenue down 5.8% to 3.79 billion yuan [1] - Net profit fell by 41.9% year-on-year to 1.29 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 3.4 percentage points to 38.4% due to increased promotional discounts and a higher proportion of low-margin online sales [1] - Operating cash flow increased by 20% year-on-year to 3.76 billion yuan, with a free cash flow to net profit ratio of 2.6 times, indicating efficient cash generation [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company reduced its direct store count by 1,124 to 5,020, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year, while total sales area declined by 12.4%, but single-store sales area increased by 7.2% [2] - Membership sales accounted for 93.2% of total sales, with high-value members contributing nearly 40% of sales, reflecting strong customer loyalty [2] - The company strategically entered the outdoor and professional sports market, becoming the exclusive operator for high-end brands like norda and Norrona in China [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - In Q4 FY2024, total sales for retail and wholesale businesses saw a mid-single-digit decline, with a more significant reduction in direct store area [3] - Management expressed cautious optimism for the new fiscal year, aiming for net profit to remain flat year-on-year while improving net profit margin through cost reduction and increased online channel sales [3] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for FY2026-2028, expecting net profits of 1.30 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a modest growth trajectory [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.013 billion RMB for FY2025, a decrease of 6.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.286 billion RMB, down 41.89% year-on-year. The company declared a dividend of 0.28 RMB, with a payout ratio of approximately 135% [2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak consumer demand and a reduction in foot traffic in offline stores. The company is focusing on efficient large-format stores while eliminating underperforming ones, resulting in a total of 5,020 stores at the end of FY25, a decrease of 1,124 stores year-on-year [3] - The company has seen a 14% year-on-year increase in average store revenue, with a membership base growing to 86 million, contributing 93.2% of in-store sales, of which repeat members account for 70% [3] - The gross margin for FY25 was 38.44%, down 3.31 percentage points, primarily due to declining sales and increased promotional activities. The net margin was 4.76%, a decrease of 2.88 percentage points [4] - The company expects to maintain stable performance in FY2026-2028, with projected EPS of 0.21, 0.24, and 0.28 RMB, and PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times respectively [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - FY2025 revenue was 27.013 billion RMB, down 6.69% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.286 billion RMB, down 41.89% year-on-year. The company declared a dividend of 0.28 RMB, with a payout ratio of approximately 135% [2] Operational Analysis - Main brand revenue decreased by 6.1% to 23.311 billion RMB, while other brands fell by 9.9% to 3.505 billion RMB due to weak consumer demand. The company is optimizing its store network by focusing on high-efficiency large stores and reducing the number of low-efficiency stores [3] - The company has enhanced member engagement through diverse marketing activities, resulting in a membership increase of 5 million year-on-year [3] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for FY25 was 38.44%, down 3.31 percentage points, while the net margin was 4.76%, down 2.88 percentage points. The company’s cash flow from operating activities increased by 20% to 3.755 billion RMB, indicating a strong cash position [4] - The company anticipates a recovery in net profit margins in the coming years, with projected EPS growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The sports capital market is experiencing a surge in significant transactions, highlighted by DICK'S Sporting Goods' acquisition of Foot Locker for $2.4 billion, indicating strategic moves to adapt to changing consumer demands and global trade dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - DICK'S Sporting Goods confirmed the acquisition of Foot Locker for $2.4 billion, with a combination of cash and new debt, valuing the company at $2.5 billion [1]. - The acquisition will allow Foot Locker to operate as an independent business unit while retaining its brand identity, pending antitrust review [1][2]. - This acquisition is part of DICK'S ongoing strategy of expanding through mergers and acquisitions, having previously acquired several sports retail companies [2]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - The acquisition aims to enhance DICK'S market presence, particularly in overseas markets, leveraging Foot Locker's extensive global network of over 2,400 stores across 22 countries [4]. - DICK'S anticipates that the merger will improve its ability to serve global consumers and expand market opportunities, especially in light of rising costs and changing consumer behavior due to tariffs and economic conditions [4][5]. - The deal is expected to provide DICK'S with stronger bargaining power with major brands like Nike, enhancing its competitive position in the market [8]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Reaction - Investor reaction to the acquisition has been cautious, with DICK'S stock experiencing a 13% drop on the announcement day, reflecting concerns over Foot Locker's operational challenges [6]. - Despite the market's skepticism, Foot Locker's stock surged by 80% on the day of the announcement, indicating investor optimism about the potential benefits of the merger [8]. Group 4: Foot Locker's Challenges - Foot Locker has faced significant challenges, including a decline in sales and the need to adapt to the direct-to-consumer (DTC) model, which has impacted its traditional retail operations [7][8]. - The company has announced plans to close 400 underperforming stores by 2026, highlighting the urgency of its need for a strategic partner like DICK'S [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - DICK'S leadership remains optimistic about the growth prospects following the acquisition, emphasizing their industry expertise and the potential for Foot Locker to regain its competitive edge [10].