Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the retail performance of the company continues to face pressure, with a decline in retail sales and an increase in discount rates [1][2] - For FY2026Q3, the company's direct store gross sales area decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year, attributed to the optimization of the offline store network and cautious store modifications [1] - The company is expected to maintain a conservative approach towards FY2027 Nike orders, but Nike's proactive support policies are anticipated to contribute positively to gross margins [1] Group 2 - The company is currently at the bottom of its operational cycle, facing short-term pressures due to weak consumer sentiment in the Greater China region and intense competition [2] - Long-term prospects remain optimistic as Nike is expected to stabilize, which may help the company recover [2] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for FY2026-FY2028, with respective year-on-year changes of -4%, +10%, and +10% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is currently experiencing short-term operational pressure, and recovery is expected to take time [6]. - Retail sales have shown a decline, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year as of November 30, 2025 [2][6]. - The company is optimizing its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores, which is expected to stabilize the number of stores in the future [8]. - Short-term pressures remain, but there is a long-term optimistic outlook due to Nike's supportive policies and market management improvements [8]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Performance - Retail sales continue to face pressure, with deeper discounting expected. The retail performance is anticipated to be better than wholesale [8]. - The company is expected to maintain inventory reduction efforts, but retail and discount pressures are likely to persist [8]. Store Network - The decline in store sales area has narrowed, and there is hope for stabilization in the future as the company optimizes its store network [8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 25.21 billion, 25.97 billion, and 26.75 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, with a year-on-year change of -7%, 3%, and 3% respectively [10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.20, 0.22, and 0.24 yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total sales for retail and wholesale businesses in FY26 Q3, with retail outperforming wholesale, indicating a weak recovery in overall terminal demand [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Total sales for retail and wholesale businesses decreased year-on-year, with retail showing better performance than wholesale [1] - The online and offline channel performance gap has narrowed, with a slight improvement in offline sales compared to the first half of FY26 [2] - The overall discount rate has deepened year-on-year due to increased online sales, but the narrowing performance gap between channels has improved the discount depth compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2] Group 2: Store Operations - The company is focusing on optimizing store operations, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in gross sales area of direct-operated stores by the end of Q3 FY26 [2] - The net store closure trend has slowed down compared to Q2, indicating a cautious approach to store openings and closures [2] - The company aims to improve overall expense ratios through careful store management and the elimination of underperforming stores [2] Group 3: Brand Strategy - The company is strengthening its main brand connections in the sports sector, focusing on professional sports lines and enhancing brand recognition in outdoor markets [3] - New product lines, such as the ACG sub-brand and localized designs for the Chinese market, are expected to drive sales growth [3] - The company is accelerating multi-brand development, with new store formats and collaborations aimed at enhancing market presence in specialized segments [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2026-28 downwards by 4.2%, 4.0%, and 4.1% to 1.25 billion, 1.43 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, due to ongoing competitive pressures and weak retail recovery [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 3.84 HKD, reflecting a PE ratio of 15.2x for FY27, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - The company is expected to maintain an attractive dividend yield, with a projected payout ratio of 100% for FY2027 [4]

经营承压但符合预期，全年利润持平目标面临挑战 事件 公司于12月22日盘后公告三季度运营表现并举行了经营电话交流会。公司FY2025/26第三季度（9-11 月），零售及批发业务销售金额同比高单位数下跌，毛销售面积环比上季度末-1.3%，同比-13.4%。 智通财经APP获悉，国元国际发布研报称，滔搏(06110)经营层面一定程度经过拐点，主要体现包括，净 关店数量基本稳定、单位坪效持续改善、核心品牌加大实质性支持。滔搏核心品牌耐克(NKE.US)新品 逐步推出市场，建议关注。 国元国际主要观点如下： 该行认为，未来仍需考虑消费环境的恢复程度，后期耐克新产品的终端市场成效以判断公司实质性经营 恢复情况。该行会着重观察公司下半财年的利润率改善情况和耐克新产品未来的终端市场反馈。 Q3销售同比下滑高单位数，零售表现优于批发。线下受低基数带动略有改善，但线上因高基数增速放 缓。折扣方面，受线上占比提升影响，同比略有加深，但环比上半财年收窄。管理层坦言，宏观环境及 线下客流依旧低迷，财年利润额同比持平的目标面临一定压力，但公司预计最终业绩可能存在偏差，但 在可控范围内。 耐克品牌加大对大中华区库存和老旧货品占比较高的 ...

国元国际发布研报称，滔搏(06110)经营层面一定程度经过拐点，主要体现包括，净关店数量基本稳 定、单位坪效持续改善、核心品牌加大实质性支持。滔搏核心品牌耐克(NKE.US)新品逐步推出市场， 建议关注。 国元国际主要观点如下： Q3销售同比下滑高单位数，零售表现优于批发。线下受低基数带动略有改善，但线上因高基数增速放 缓。折扣方面，受线上占比提升影响，同比略有加深，但环比上半财年收窄。管理层坦言，宏观环境及 线下客流依旧低迷，财年利润额同比持平的目标面临一定压力，但公司预计最终业绩可能存在偏差，但 在可控范围内。 耐克支持力度增强，对大中华区库存问题加大重视 耐克品牌加大对大中华区库存和老旧货品占比较高的问题的重视，通过加大核心零售商的旧货回购力 度、回收后核销。一方面降低零售伙伴运营资金压力，同时也改善品牌在大中华区新旧货品比例。公司 在经营层面已在一定程度上度过拐点，主要体现包括，净关店数量基本稳定、单位坪效持续改善、核心 品牌加大实质性支持。分别对应，公司经营调改基本稳定、公司新业务模型具有成效、伙伴支持有望反 映在报表端。 该行认为，未来仍需考虑消费环境的恢复程度，后期耐克新产品的终端市场成效以判断 ...

格隆汇12月24日｜中金发表报告指，滔搏今年11月底止第三财季符合公司预期，后续展望审慎。考虑需 求偏弱及主力品牌仍在调整期，该行下调公司2026及27财年每股盈利预测4%及13%至0.2及0.23元，相 应下调目标价7%至3.88港元，维持"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to significant disruptions in offline retail, the profit forecast for Tmall (滔搏) has been slightly lowered, with expected net profits for FY2026-2028 being 1.22 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%, +9.6%, and +11.5% [1] - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 3.2 to 3.5 HKD, down from the previous range of 3.8 to 4.0 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14 to 15 times for FY2027 [1] Group 2 - In Q3 of FY2026, the total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year, with the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, although the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [3] - The company is optimizing its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores and focusing on extending online channels for offline stores, with a significant reduction in the number of store closures expected this year compared to last year [3] Group 3 - The discount rate has deepened year-on-year due to the increased proportion of online channels, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [4] - Nike's Q2 FY2026 performance slightly exceeded previous guidance and market expectations, with revenue of 12.4 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the Greater China region continues to face significant pressure [4] - Adidas reported Q3 results that fell short of market expectations for revenue but exceeded expectations for operating profit, with a 12% year-on-year increase in revenue for the Adidas brand [5] Group 4 - The company has maintained a strong growth momentum for its main brand, Adidas, with expectations of double-digit growth for FY2025, while Nike's performance in FY2026 Q2 was better than previous guidance but faced challenges in the Greater China market [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market and opening a running brand collective store [6]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities has slightly lowered the profit forecast for Tmall (06110) due to significant disruptions in offline retail, expecting net profits for FY2026-2028 to be 1.22/1.33/1.49 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 1.29/1.41/1.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%/+9.6%/+11.5% [1] Group 1 - The total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business in Q3 FY2026 recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year [2] - As of November 30, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, but the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [2] Group 2 - The total inventory at the end of Q3 decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, but the promotional atmosphere in the industry has made it challenging to manage inventory healthily [3] - Nike's FY2026 Q2 revenue was $12.4 billion, up 1% year-on-year, slightly better than previous guidance and consensus expectations, with regional performance varying significantly [3] - The gross margin decline was less than previously guided, with North America leading revenue growth while the Greater China region faced significant pressure [3] Group 3 - Future Q3 revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage, with gross margin expected to decrease by approximately 175-225 basis points [4] - Adidas' Q3 revenue did not meet consensus expectations, but operating profit exceeded expectations, with a 12% year-on-year growth in brand revenue [4] - Adidas has raised its full-year guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected business performance [4] Group 4 - The company is optimistic about its operational resilience and long-term cash returns [5] - The retail pressure remains high with a high single-digit decline, but inventory improvement and a reduction in discount rates have been observed [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market [6]

Group 1 - The core sales amount of TBO (滔搏) in Q3 has declined significantly, continuing the trend observed in H1, with total retail and wholesale sales dropping by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, maintaining the same decline rate as Q2 [2] - Retail performance has outperformed wholesale, with slight improvements in offline retail and a slowdown in online retail due to the impact of last year's base [2] - The company expects a significant reduction in store closures for FY26 compared to FY25, maintaining its annual guidance of stable net profit and improved net profit margin [3] Group 2 - NIKE has strengthened its collaboration with TBO, focusing on inventory management and reducing promotional activities, as the Greater China region's recovery lags behind global trends [4] - Key initiatives include updating core store trials, reducing promotional intensity, and accelerating the clearance of outdated inventory, with a specific mention of enhancing cooperation with distributors like TBO [4] - TBO has launched exclusive pop-up stores for niche brands, such as Norrøna in Shanghai, indicating a strategic move to diversify its offerings [4]

Group 1 - The core sales amount of Tmall (滔搏) in Q3 has declined significantly, continuing the trend observed in H1, with total retail and wholesale sales down by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year [2] - The company expects a significant reduction in store closures for FY26, maintaining its annual guidance unchanged, with net profit expected to remain flat year-on-year and net profit margin to improve [3] - The collaboration with NIKE has strengthened, focusing on inventory recovery and reducing promotional efforts, as NIKE aims to enhance brand positioning in the Greater China region [4] Group 2 - The retail performance showed improvement in offline sales, while online sales experienced a slight slowdown, with a higher proportion of revenue coming from online channels leading to deeper retail discounts year-on-year [2] - The company's direct-operated store sales area decreased by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year, although the pace of net store closures has slowed compared to Q2 [3] - NIKE's revenue in the Greater China region has seen a neutral decline of 16%, indicating that the region is a focus for adjustments in FY26 [4]