期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货纯碱玻璃周报 宏观情绪扰动，玻碱反弹承压 20260111 孙伟涛 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核人：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 库存端 4 供给端 5 需求端 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 纯碱观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 库存：截止到2026年1月8日，当周国内纯碱厂家总库存157.27万吨。其中，轻质纯碱83.65万吨，重质纯碱 73.62万 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 9 日 【基本面分析】 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性 较大。 纯苯方面：截至 12 月 29 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量 30 万吨，较 上期库存 27.3 万吨上升 2.7 万吨，环比增加 9.89%；较去年同期库存 19.22 万 吨累库 10.78 万吨，同比上升 56.09%。12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日，不完全统计到 货约 3.95 万吨，提货约 1.25 万吨。周期内，所统计库区中，3 个库区上升，4 个库区持稳。 苯乙烯方面：截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.23 万吨，较上周期减 0.65 万吨，幅度-4.68%。商品量库存在 7.73 万吨，较上周期 减 0.6 万吨，幅度-7.20%。 部分银行短期大额存单利率进入"0 字头"，与普通定存相差无几。 国家统计局：2025 年 12 月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨 0.8%。中国 12 月 CPI 年率 0.8%，预期 0.9%，前值 0.70%。 【期现行情分析】 纯苯 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-01-09 下游仍处于淡季低开工状态 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-102元/吨（+57）。纯苯港口库存31.80万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费138美元/ 吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费130美元/吨（+6美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差165.8美元/吨（-1.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-190元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-540元/吨（-60），酚酮生产利润-729元/吨（+111），苯胺生产利润909元/吨（+64）， 己二酸生产利润-706元/吨（-32）。己内酰胺开工率74.22%（-1.30%），苯酚开工率85.50%（+4.50%），苯胺开工率 61.31%（+1.50%），己二酸开工率67.60%（-0.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差103元/吨（+56元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润138元/吨（+5元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存132300吨（-6500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存77300吨（-6000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率70.9%（ ...

1月7日消息，商务部发布公告，决定自2026年1月7日起， 对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅进行反倾销 立案调查！ 根据公告内容，商务部去年12月8日收到唐山三孚电子材料有限公司代表中国二氯二氢硅产业正式提交 的反倾销调查申请，申请人请求对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅进行反倾销调查。 商务部依据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》有关规定，对申请人的资格、申请调查产品有关情况、中国 同类产品有关情况、申请调查产品对中国产业的影响、申请调查国家有关情况等进行了审查。 根据申请人提供的证据和商务部的初步审查，申请人二氯二氢硅产量符合《中华人民共和国反倾销条 例》第十一条和第十三条有关国内产业提起反倾销调查申请的规定。 同时，申请书中包含了《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》第十四条、第十五条规定的反倾销调查立案所要 求的内容及有关证据。 根据上述审查结果，依据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》第十六条的规定，商务部决定自2026年1月7日 起对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅进行反倾销立案调查。 据了解，二氯二氢硅主要用于芯片制造过程中的薄膜沉积（如外延膜、碳化硅膜、氮化硅膜、氧化硅膜 和多晶硅膜等），用于生产逻辑芯片、存储芯片、模拟芯片和其他类 ...

（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网1月7日讯 ，齐翔腾达在接受调研者提问时表示，近期原油价格持续下降，对公司整体生产 成本形成一定利好，尤其在原料端采购成本上有所缓解。但由于化工品价格与原油价格存在传导时间 差，且终端需求恢复相对温和，产品价格亦承压运行，部分抵消了原料降价带来的收益。公司积极把握 低油价窗口期，优化库存策略，适度增加经济性原料的批量采购，同时通过新加坡子公司拓展海外低成 本原料采购渠道，强化境内外资源调配能力，进一步夯实一体化运营优势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported dichlorodihydrosilane (DCS) from Japan, which is expected to directly benefit domestic DCS production companies and accelerate the domestic substitution in semiconductor manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Industry Chain - The anti-dumping investigation period is set from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, while the industry damage investigation period spans from January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2025 [3][4]. - This policy is anticipated to promote domestic DCS production and indirectly benefit upstream raw material suppliers [3][4]. Group 2: Beneficiary Classification - Key beneficiaries include midstream core DCS manufacturing companies, upstream raw material suppliers, and downstream application fields such as chip manufacturing and display panels [10]. - Specific companies identified as beneficiaries include: - Midstream: companies like Sanfu Co., and Hoshine Silicon Industry [10]. - Upstream: companies such as Dongyue Group and Jiangsu Huachang Chemical [10]. - Downstream: firms like SMIC and Changjiang Storage [10]. Group 3: Industry Overview - The upstream segment consists of essential raw materials like silicon powder, hydrogen chloride, and hydrogen, which are characterized by high technical barriers [11]. - A critical parameter for production is maintaining metal impurities below 0.1 ppb [11].

商务部新闻发言人就对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅发起反倾销调查答记者问 有记者问：我们关注到商务部对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅发起了反倾销调查，能否介绍相关情况？ 本次调查自2026年1月7日起开始，通常应在2027年1月7日前结束调查，特殊情况下可延长6个月。 二氯二氢硅主要用于芯片制造过程中的薄膜沉积（如外延膜、碳化硅膜、氮化硅膜、氧化硅膜和多晶硅 膜等），用于生产逻辑芯片、存储芯片、模拟芯片和其他类芯片，也可用于合成硅基系列前驱体和聚硅 氮烷等。 1月7日，据商务部网站，商务部公告，对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅进行反倾销立案调查，本次调 查确定的倾销调查期为2024年7月1日至2025年6月30日，产业损害调查期为2022年1月1日至2025 年6月30日。 答：此次调查是应国内产业申请发起的。申请人提交的初步证据显示，2022年至2024年，自日本进口 的二氯二氢硅数量总体呈上升趋势，价格累计下跌31%，自日倾销进口产品对我国内产业生产经营造 成了损害。 调查机关收到申请后，根据中国有关法律法规并遵循世贸组织规则对申请书进行了审查，认为申请符合 反倾销调查立案条件，决定发起调查。 调查机关将依法开展调查 ...

中华人民共和国商务部（以下简称商务部）于2025年12月8日收到唐山三孚电子材料有限公司（以下称 申请人）代表中国二氯二氢硅产业正式提交的反倾销调查申请，申请人请求对原产于日本的进口二氯二 氢硅进行反倾销调查。商务部依据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》有关规定，对申请人的资格、申请调 查产品有关情况、中国同类产品有关情况、申请调查产品对中国产业的影响、申请调查国家有关情况等 进行了审查。 根据申请人提供的证据和商务部的初步审查，申请人二氯二氢硅产量符合《中华人民共和国反倾销条 例》第十一条和第十三条有关国内产业提起反倾销调查申请的规定。同时，申请书中包含了《中华人民 共和国反倾销条例》第十四条、第十五条规定的反倾销调查立案所要求的内容及有关证据。 根据上述审查结果，依据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》第十六条的规定，商务部决定自2026年1月7日 起对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅进行反倾销立案调查。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、立案调查及调查期 自本公告发布之日起，商务部对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅进行反倾销立案调查，本次调查确定的倾 销调查期为2024年7月1日至2025年6月30日，产业损害调查期为2022年1月1日 ...

Market Performance - On January 6, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.50% to 4083.67 points, marking a ten-year high [1] - The market's total trading volume exceeded 2.83 trillion yuan, an increase of over 260 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with more than 4100 stocks rising [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a 13-day consecutive rise, setting a historical record, surpassing the previous 12-day record held for 33 years [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector continued to surge, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Lushin Investment, which achieved six limit-ups in eight days [1] - The brain-computer interface concept maintained its strong performance, with stocks like Sanbo Brain Science and Meihao Medical achieving consecutive limit-ups [1] - The financial sector collectively rose, with Huayin Securities and Dazhihui hitting the daily limit [1] - The intelligent driving sector also showed strength, with multiple stocks like Wanjitech and Luchang Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The chemical sector saw gains, with stocks such as Zhongtai Chemical and Luhua Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs [1] Market Outlook - Factors supporting the current bull market remain unchanged, including policy support and a shift of household savings to the capital market, with increasing foreign investment interest in China's technological innovation [2] - Goldman Sachs has recommended overweighting Chinese stocks for 2026, predicting a 15% to 20% annual increase in the Chinese stock market for 2026 and 2027 due to significant valuation discounts compared to global peers [2] - The market is expected to transition from a cross-year trend to a spring offensive, with increased credit issuance in January likely to bring additional funds into the capital market [3] - The overall sentiment suggests that 2026 will be a year of significant opportunities, with expectations of improved market performance and investor sentiment [3] Policy Environment - Future policies may include more proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle, creating favorable conditions for China's central bank [5] - In a declining interest rate environment, equity assets are likely to perform well, and the renminbi is expected to appreciate, attracting more foreign capital into Chinese assets [5] Investor Sentiment - The spring offensive has begun, and investors are encouraged to maintain confidence and patience, focusing on quality stocks or funds to capitalize on the slow bull market opportunities [6] - The number of new A-share accounts has continued to rise, reflecting the market's vitality, with 27.44 million new accounts opened in 2025, a 9.75% increase from 2024 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].