Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Positive trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: Slightly bullish, but limited trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Asphalt: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase strategy of OPEC+ makes the supply - demand tightness from seasonality and geopolitical fluctuations unsustainable. Keep an eye on short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical disturbances are fully priced in [2] - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing remains weak, and the cracking and EFS of high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to weaken jointly. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil under the situation of weak supply and demand [3] - The supply increase of asphalt lacks resilience, the demand has a seasonal improvement, the de - stocking trend is expected to continue, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [4] - The downward space of LPG is limited after the supply pressure weakens, but the supply pressure still exists in summer, and it maintains a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC07 contract dropping 0.83% during the day [2] - Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC+ will continue to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and has lowered the official price premium of light crude oil sold to Asia in July [2] - The supply interruption caused by the wildfires in Canada has partially recovered, and the inventories of gasoline and refined oil in the EIA last week increased more than expected, indicating that demand cannot match the increase in refinery supply [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing is still weak. Although the power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa in summer provides some support, the expected power - generation demand for crude oil may exceed that for fuel oil this summer [3] - In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil flowing to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons, and the production increase of OPEC+ brings an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials [3] - The bunker volume of low - sulfur fuel oil in Fujairah dropped significantly last week, the peak season of overseas marine fuel demand is coming to an end, and the bonded inventory at domestic ports has decreased significantly under low supply [3] Asphalt - The discount quotation of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of -$6.5 per barrel, and the estimated discount quotation for July is -$6 per barrel [4] - The production of local refineries depends on crude oil quotas, and the start - up rate of major refineries is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining profit and export profit [4] - The demand has a seasonal improvement, but the real driving force still needs to be awaited [4] LPG - Domestic refineries have increased external sales and prices have generally declined. Although the supply in the Middle East is still abundant, the recent recovery of domestic chemical demand has brought about procurement demand [5] - The international market price is relatively stable. The monthly arrival volume and domestic production of LPG at the beginning of the month have both decreased, and the downward space is limited after the supply pressure weakens [5] - The supply pressure still exists in summer, and currently there is insufficient motivation for the improvement of chemical gross profit, maintaining a low - level shock [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a complex trend [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, indicating a somewhat bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated, but the analysis shows a positive trend [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of international oil prices is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical negotiations [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term, but its long - term strength is expected to be limited [2] - The asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily due to increased supply and partial demand release [3] - The LPG market is in a low - level oscillation due to supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued the corrective rebound after the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, with the S006 contract rising 0.79% [2] - Demand is resilient, and global light distillate product inventories have hit new lows, leading to a recovery in overseas gasoline cracking and comprehensive refining profits [2] - Last week, US API gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.287 million barrels [2] - The recent rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, but the upside space is not overly optimistic, with the oscillation range of Brent at $57 - 70 per barrel, WTI at $51 - 67 per barrel, and S0 at 430 - 510 yuan per barrel [2] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU stood out in the oil product futures, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widened [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under the OPEC+ production increase, and FU cracking is under pressure to fall from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuation and seasonal demand increase, but its long - term strength is limited due to factors such as the cancellation of the maintenance plan of the Nigerian Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The price of the asphalt main contract has returned above 3,500 yuan per ton, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [3] - Domestic asphalt supply has increased due to increased production by Sinopec refineries and the resumption or transfer of production by local refineries [3] - Demand in the northern market is gradually being released, while that in the southern market is suppressed by rainfall [3] - Refinery and trader inventories have slightly increased, but the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily [3] LPG - Middle - East exports have increased, and international market procurement is cautious, with import costs expected to decline [4] - The PDH gross profit is still at a low level, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. The possibility of resumption of production after the tariff reduction should be noted [4] - The domestic price has declined due to concentrated imports in the first half of May and off - season pressure, and the market is in a low - level oscillation under supply pressure [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, similar to crude oil, with a bias towards a short - term trend and limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, a slight bias towards a certain trend, but the market situation is not very clear and operability is poor [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly defined by stars in a standard way, but showing strong performance in the market [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price continued to decline under pressure during the Asian trading session, and it is recommended to hold a low - cost short - option portfolio to hedge against the downward risk of oil prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks and the OPEC+ meeting's decision on the production increase rate in June [1] - The fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil but with a smaller decline. The supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened marginally, while the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has been repaired [2] - Asphalt showed the strongest performance among oil product futures, with its cracking spread significantly strengthening and reaching a new high for the year. The improvement in supply - demand has provided obvious support [3] - The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure due to factors such as the shutdown of PDH plants and the expected import gas surplus. The market is expected to remain volatile [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian trading session, the SC06 contract dropped by 2.58%. The market focus has returned to supply - demand prospects. The US API crude oil inventory increased by 376,000 barrels last week. Before there are clear signs of improvement in the Sino - US trade war, the room for the demand - driven upward movement is limited. The marginal impact of OPEC+ production increase and the weakening of supply disruption risks due to geopolitical easing still exist. It is recommended to hold a low - cost short - option portfolio [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil but with a smaller decline. The supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened marginally as Russian fuel oil shipments increased last week and Singapore's fuel oil inventory continued to rise. The cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has been repaired due to factors such as refinery overhauls and the strengthening of gasoline cracking [2] Asphalt - The asphalt (BU) showed the strongest performance among oil product futures, with its cracking spread significantly strengthening and reaching a new high for the year. The pre - holiday downstream stocking demand increased, with the weekly asphalt shipment volume reaching 442,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 75,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons. The improvement in supply - demand has provided obvious support [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand, with only a slight downward adjustment in May's CP. However, domestic PDH plants are gradually shutting down, and there is an expected import gas surplus in the second half of the month. The domestic market is under pressure, and the market is expected to remain volatile [4]