客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 来源：能源研发中心 | | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 讲 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | 晨 | 中国SC原油期货 | 424.60 | 1.58 | 32810 | | | 每 | | | | | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 57.76 | 3.16 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 61.99 | 3.39 | 663792 | | | H | 美国RBOB汽油期货 | 1.7603 | 3.88 | 115000 | | | | 英国ICE柴油期货 | 609.25 | 1.46 | 178838 | | 后市观点 周四油价的表现让人意外，原油不但结束了二连跌走出反弹行情，凌晨结算后油价继续冲高，最高涨幅 一度突破了5%，在大宗商品普遍大幅回调背景下，昨夜原油的长阳大涨惊呆了一众看空投资者。油价 能走出这样的表现是过去几天过度悲观之后的修正性情绪宣泄。在周初市场普遍预计地缘层面升 ...

截至2025年12月30日，美元兑加元报1.3684，微跌0.0438%，当日高低点1.3695/1.3684，延续震荡下 行。汇价此前逼近12月26日五个月低点1.3642，受美联储宽松预期、加央行偏鹰及油价反弹影响，短期 承压显著。 美加央行政策分化是汇价核心驱动力。美联储2025年三次降息累计75基点，利率区间至3.50%-3.75%； 虽官方预测2026年仅再降息一次，但市场仍押注宽松。CME FedWatch显示1月维稳概率81.7%，而12月 降息遭三位官员反对，内部分歧限制美元跌幅。 加央行则中性偏鹰，年内四次降息累计100基点后，12月连续两月维持利率2.25%，行长表态当前利 率"合适"，引发2026年加息预期。加拿大三季度GDP增长2.6%，11月就业超预期、失业率降至6.5%， 经济韧性支撑政策立场。美加利差收窄成为美元兑加元承压主因。 作为商品货币，加元走势高度关联油价，加拿大作为美最大原油供应国，油价直接影响其贸易与货币估 值。近期WTI原油反弹至57.20美元/桶，中东局势提供支撑。虽2025年油价累计跌15.2%，但WCS与 WTI价差收窄及供应链担忧，推动资金流入加元资产。 技 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 周四在欧美市场休假期间国内SC原油上涨2.2元/桶，涨幅约0.5%；其中在周四夜盘开盘后一度快速冲高 1%，高硫燃料油更是大涨超2%。因欧美市场休市之际地缘层面仍有扰动，夜盘开盘前市场传出消息乌 军使用"风暴阴影"导弹袭击了俄罗斯罗斯托夫州的新沙赫廷斯克炼油厂，引发多处爆炸。乌克兰总参谋 部在Telegram平台上发布的声明中指出，该炼油厂是俄罗斯南部最大的石油产品供应商之一，并参与对 俄军部队的燃料供应。不过此前俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示俄罗斯已补充了在高需求时期使用的石油产品 库存，目前库存甚至高于一年前。 后市观点 周四中国和俄罗斯官方均对美国对委内瑞拉的封锁进行了谴责，俄罗斯外交部更是称其"复活加勒比海 盗行径"，地缘层面继续支撑油价。另外相对于油价近期的反弹，国内的贵金属及其他部分商品的大幅 波动更是引入关注，过去一段时间国内文华商品指数8连阳，大宗商品市场风险偏好整体升温，虽然原 油不是热点，但整体情绪乐观也在一定程度上推动了油价的反弹。整体来看地缘驱动的反弹已经面临上 档关键阻力，供应过剩背景下油价继续上涨空间有限 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (judged as a more distinct short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1][6] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (judged as a more distinct short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1][6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (judged as a more distinct short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not explicitly rated Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and a strategy combination of shorting crude oil and buying out - of - the - money call options should be considered [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term but may face a more abundant supply in the medium - term; low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue weak oscillations but its crack spread may get some support [3] - The "peak season" demand of asphalt is weaker than expected, and the medium - and long - term expectation of slower inventory reduction restricts its upside [3] - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas have marginally improved, providing short - term support [4] Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - Since the fourth quarter, global petroleum inventories have increased by 1.8%, with crude oil inventories up 3.5% and refined oil inventories down 1.1% [2] - The joint escalation of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US and the optimistic signals from the China - US - Malaysia talks supported the rebound of crude oil, but the easing of China - US trade game restricts the intensity of sanctions on sensitive oil and the upper limit of supply reduction. Considering the continuous inventory build - up pressure under OPEC+ continuous production increase, the rebound space of oil prices is limited [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After two days of geopolitically - driven increases, the market sentiment has been digested, and fuel oil prices declined with the cost side today [3] - In the short - term, high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the expected reduction in Russian exports and domestic feedstock demand under crude oil quota constraints, but the actual implementation of Russian export reduction needs attention. In the medium - term, supply tends to be abundant [3] - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are weak, with abundant overseas supply and high Asian arrivals. However, geopolitical factors may support it through the diesel market, and the crack spread may get some support in the fourth quarter [3] Asphalt - The BU2601 contract faced pressure near 3300 yuan/ton, and other contracts also entered a volatile trend [3] - In November, the planned production of refineries nationwide decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Terminal demand was blocked in the north due to cooling, improved in the south due to better weather, and was average in Shandong. The high year - on - year growth rate of shipments since October is hard to sustain [3] - The overall commercial inventory decreased month - on - month, and the "peak season" demand was weaker than expected, restricting the upside of asphalt [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG futures continued to oscillate today. The external price stabilized and rebounded, the commodity volume and import arrivals decreased, and demand increased due to improved chemical profits and cold weather. Port storage capacity utilization decreased by 3.3%, and refinery storage capacity utilization decreased slightly by 0.4% [4] - The marginal improvement in fundamentals provides short - term support for LPG [4]

Group 1 - The international crude oil market experienced a rebound after hitting a nearly five-month low, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $61.42 per barrel, up over 5% for the week, and Brent crude oil futures at $64.87 per barrel, up over 7% [1] - The rebound was driven by two main factors: a recovery demand following a prolonged decline in oil prices and rising geopolitical risks, particularly due to new sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU on Russian oil companies [1] - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against two major Russian oil companies, coinciding with the EU's approval of its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, leading to concerns about supply disruptions in the oil market [1] Group 2 - Recent inventory data from EIA and API indicated a decline in U.S. commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, with a slight recovery in refinery utilization and crude processing [2] - Current U.S. crude oil inventories are down 0.75% year-on-year and 4% lower than the five-year average, while gasoline and distillate inventories are also below historical levels [2] - Analysts suggest that despite predictions of a significant supply surplus in the global oil market next year, the current spot market remains relatively strong, influenced by OPEC+ production not meeting expectations and potential underestimation of demand [2] Group 3 - The oil market is currently in a phase of short-term geopolitical advantages versus long-term supply-demand fundamentals, with ongoing OPEC+ production increases not leading to a significant decline in U.S. oil output [2] - The future trajectory of oil prices will depend on the market's ability to recover from recent disruptions, including Russia's response to sanctions and the stance of buyers like India [2] - Overall, while the trend for oil prices in the fourth quarter is expected to shift downward, high volatility is anticipated, requiring traders to manage positions carefully [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly indicated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The market shows a complex situation with different trends for various chemical products. Short - term and mid - term trends vary, and investment strategies such as anti - arbitrage, long - position allocation, and short - selling at high prices are recommended according to different product characteristics [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with prices at a low level and a strong market wait - and - see mood [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also rose. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance limited transactions. For polypropylene, trading sentiment improved, but demand from downstream factories was still weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rebounded due to oil price increases. There was a risk of port inventory accumulation in the short - term, and mid - term imports were a major pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose. Although there were rumors of production cuts, high inventory limited the upside [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded with oil prices. The short - term rebound's sustainability depends on oil prices, and mid - term anti - arbitrage is recommended [5] - Ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but faces inventory accumulation pressure in the mid - term [5] - Short fiber is recommended for long - position allocation, while bottle chip demand weakens and is mainly driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices may fluctuate within a range in the short - term and tend to rise in the medium - to - long - term [6] - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly within a range in the short - term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range [7] - Caustic soda may operate at a low level within a range [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is recommended for short - selling at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass prices may have limited downward movement, and selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Styrene, PVC, Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated in the table, but with analysis in the report [3] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: The symbol in the table is unclear [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different price trends and supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and policies, and their short - term and medium - term trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with controllable enterprise inventories and stable offers. Downstream follow - up was okay, and the trading range was stable [2] - Polyethylene futures rose, but the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Sellers mostly offered small discounts [2] - Polypropylene futures rose. Although the supply pressure decreased due to more upstream maintenance, the demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the high - level inventory was slowly digested. The supply - demand contradiction may increase, and the price may remain low for a long time [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices rebounded above 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China rebounded, and the low - level transactions in Shandong improved. The short - term price may rebound, but the high import volume in the medium term is the main pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose, but there were only expected device shutdowns. The inventory remained high, and the upward price momentum was limited [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded with reduced positions. The short - term price may continue to rebound, mainly depending on oil prices. In the medium term, with the weakening demand and expected inventory accumulation, the strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with increased positions. The short - term price has a rebound expectation, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the medium term, suggesting shorting at high prices [5] - Short fiber continued to be a bullish allocation. The new production capacity was limited, the inventory was decreasing, and the downstream备货 sentiment was improved [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. The long - term pressure is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated at a low level. The short - term coastal market may fluctuate within a range, and the price may be bullish in the medium - to - long term as the import supply pressure is expected to decrease [6] - Urea futures prices rose slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, supported by the marginal improvement of supply - demand and coal prices [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating trend. The supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range due to weak domestic demand and potential export policy pressure [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated narrowly. The supply fluctuated slightly, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting due to non - aluminum downstream restocking and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. The supply was still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass fluctuated narrowly. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the downward range is expected to be limited. It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money put options [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price continued to rebound, and the SC11 contract rose 2.33% during the day. The decline in US API crude oil inventories and the US crude oil purchase plan supported the market. In the medium - term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported but may face supply pressure in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, but its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The market is in a tight - balance pattern, and the inventory is slightly decreasing [4]. - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 2.33% during the day. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 298,100 barrels last week, and the US 1 - million - barrel crude oil purchase plan supported the market. OPEC +'s production increase strategy and the decline in demand after the peak consumption season bring medium - term supply - demand pressure, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, ship - fuel demand, and feedstock improvement, but supply may be loose in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, with sufficient overseas supply. Its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The national weekly operating rate decreased, and the refinery production plan in November decreased. Terminal demand was affected by weather, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance pattern [4]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week. Chemical demand increased, while combustion demand was weak. The inventory at refineries and ports decreased, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is easing, leading to a decline in international oil prices, while the actual production capacity of OPEC+ remains low, suggesting that the demand peak season may continue to support a rebound in oil prices [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are calming, contributing to a decrease in international oil prices [1] - OPEC+ has limited actual production capacity, which may affect market dynamics [1] - The upcoming demand peak season could provide upward pressure on oil prices, indicating potential for a rebound [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary policy changes, particularly the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3][5] - Oil prices have shown a significant increase, with Brent crude futures rising by 1.8% to $66.84 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 2.1% to $63.96 per barrel, marking a recovery from previous lows [3][4] - Geopolitical factors, particularly the relationship between the U.S. and Russia regarding sanctions and military actions in Ukraine, are influencing market dynamics and adding uncertainty to oil supply and pricing [4][5] Group 2 - The interplay of macroeconomic policies, geopolitical developments, and real pressures from inventory and supply data creates a complex environment for oil prices, making it difficult to predict price movements based solely on supply and demand [5] - The market is currently in a state of uncertainty, with traders reacting to short-term price fluctuations rather than committing to long-term trends, influenced by the mixed signals from U.S. policy and Russian actions [4][5] - Investors are advised to focus on short-term support and resistance levels rather than attempting to forecast long-term price directions, given the volatility and multiple influencing factors in the current oil market [5]