Industrial Performance - In the first four months, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous period[2] - Cumulative profit for industrial enterprises rose by 1.4% year-on-year, up from 0.8% previously, with April's profit showing a 3.0% increase year-on-year[2] - Private industrial enterprises achieved a cumulative profit growth of 4.3%, recovering from a decline of 0.3% in the previous period[2] Price and Inventory Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for April showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months[3] - Cumulative inventory of finished products in industrial enterprises increased by 3.9% year-on-year, down from 4.2% previously, marking the first decline since November 2024[3] PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, slightly up from 49.0% in April, with the production index exceeding the critical threshold[3] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI in May was 49.8%, an increase from 49.2% in April, while the export orders index rose to 47.5% from 44.7%[3] Employment and Sector Performance - The employment index for manufacturing in May was 48.1%, up from 47.9% in April, indicating a slight improvement in employment conditions[4] - The construction PMI for May was 51.0%, down from 51.9% in April, while the services PMI remained stable at 50.2%[4] Economic Outlook - June 18 is identified as a critical observation point for economic and policy developments, following the release of key economic data and the Federal Reserve's meeting[5] - The report highlights risks including external uncertainties and potential delays in counter-cyclical policies[6]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data presents a mixed picture, with various sectors showing signs of weakness, indicating that the market needs time to digest the pressure [3][4][5] - Industrial enterprises' added value increased by 6.1%, but this represents a significant decline compared to the previous month, reflecting concerns at the company level [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% in April, but this is a noticeable drop from 5.9% in March, indicating a weakening demand [3][4] Group 2 - The consumption sector faces challenges, particularly due to price wars and a lack of pricing power, which is expected to persist in the short term [4] - The liquor industry, especially white liquor, is under pressure due to new government regulations aimed at reducing waste, which could lead to a long-term decline in consumption [4] - Real estate investment fell by 10.3% in April, marking a significant drag on the economy, with first-tier cities experiencing a shift from rising to falling second-hand housing prices [5]

一季度规模以上工业企业利润由降转增；资金面整体均衡，债市窄幅震荡 【内容摘要】4 月 27 日，资金面整体均衡，资金价格略有抬升；调休工作日市场交投清淡， 债市窄幅震荡。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【一季度规模以上工业企业利润由降转增】 国家统计局 4 月 27 日发布的数据显示，今年一 季度，全国规模以上工业企业利润由上年全年同比下降 3.3%转为增长 0.8%，扭转了自上年三 季度以来企业累计利润持续下降的态势。3 月份，规模以上工业企业利润由 1 至 2 月份下降 0.3%转为增长 2.6%，企业当月利润有所改善。 国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表示，随着工 业生产增长加快，带动工业企业营收继续改善。一季度，全国规模以上工业企业营业收入同比 增长 3.4%，增速较 1 至 2 月份加快 0.6 个百分点；3 月份，规模以上工业企业营收增长 4.2%， 较 1 至 2 月份加快 1.4 个百分点。工业企业营收累计增速自上年 12 月份以来持续加快，为企 业盈利恢复创造有利条件。 【离境退税政策再优化】商务部等六部门日前发布《关于进一步优化离境退税政策扩大入境消 费的通知》，旨在更好满足境外旅客购物离境退 ...

点击上图 ▲立即预约 1—2月规上工业企业利润下降0.3% 3月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1—2月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额9109.9亿元，同比下降0.3%。1—2月份，规模以上工业企 业利润降幅较2024年全年收窄3%。其中制造业改善明显，1—2月份同比增长4.8%，拉动全部规上工业利润增长3.2%。 1—2月份，规模以上工业企业实现营业收入20.09万亿元，同比增长2.8%，较2024年全年加快0.7%；发生营业成本17.10万亿元，增长2.9%；营 业收入利润率为4.53%，同比下降0.14%。2月末，规模以上工业企业每百元资产实现的营业收入为67.6元，同比减少1.5元；产成品存货周转天 数为22.3天，同比增加0.2天。（国家统计局官网） ｜点评｜ 去年全年规上工业企业利润率表现较弱，今年开年利润率略有修复，不同行业内的差异性较大。春节期间，居民对于服饰、酒饮的需 求提升，带动相关消费品量价齐升。购车政策补贴力度加大，为车企留出了利润空间，汽车行业利润率增速整体由负转正。上游行业是规上利润 率的主要拖累项，房地产市场持续回暖，然而，房企对于新房建造的积极性尚未被完全调动，建材、钢铁 ...