Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $26.00, indicating a potential upside of 43.3% from the current price of $18.15 [4][24]. Core Insights - The first quarter profits exceeded expectations, driven by growth in gaming and advertising, with a revenue of 7 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% [2][7]. - The report highlights that the company's monthly active users (MAU) increased by 28 million quarter-on-quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [7][19]. - The gaming revenue saw a significant year-on-year increase of 76%, primarily due to the success of the game "Three Kingdoms" [7][19]. - Advertising revenue also grew by 20% year-on-year, benefiting from increased traffic and improved marketing efficiency through AI technology [7][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 22,528 million RMB - 2024: 26,832 million RMB - 2025E: 30,321 million RMB - 2026E: 32,245 million RMB - 2027E: 34,465 million RMB - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, with estimates of 2,316 million RMB, 3,298 million RMB in 2026, and 4,145 million RMB in 2027 [3][25]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at 2,316 million RMB, with an adjusted earnings per share of 5.47 RMB [3][25]. User Engagement Metrics - The report indicates that the number of paid users reached 32 million, with a stable payment rate [12][14]. - The average daily usage time per user has shown consistent year-on-year growth, contributing to overall user engagement [9][10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high growth in gaming, with a projected increase of 59% in the second quarter of 2025, driven by upcoming game updates and new releases [7][19]. - The advertising revenue is anticipated to grow by 18% year-on-year, supported by traffic growth and product optimization [7][19]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's content positioning and user value enhancement, which are expected to drive user engagement and commercialization [7][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price of $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of $14.69 [1][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on high-quality membership growth and the release of operational and profit potential. It anticipates that the increase in Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) will have a greater impact than the growth in membership numbers. The report emphasizes the importance of member benefits, fan economy, and long audio content in driving SVIP growth [1][5]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased by 3% to 8.9 billion RMB, with a maintained SOTP target price of $17.00 (66 HKD) [1][16]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 31.177 billion RMB, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates. The online music segment is expected to generate 25.417 billion RMB, with subscription revenue anticipated to reach 17.729 billion RMB, a 1% increase [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 8.905 billion RMB, representing a 3% increase from prior estimates, with an adjusted net profit margin of 28.6% [2][10]. - The report projects a steady growth in ARPPU, expecting it to rise to 12.2 RMB by the end of 2025, driven by high-quality membership growth [5][10]. Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, Tencent Music reported revenues of 7.356 billion RMB, with online music revenue at 5.804 billion RMB, and a net profit of 4.388 billion RMB, which was 25% higher year-on-year [9][10]. - The number of paying music subscribers reached approximately 122.9 million, with a monthly ARPPU of 11.4 RMB, showing an 8% year-on-year increase [5][9]. Market Position - Tencent Music's market capitalization is approximately 20.062 billion USD, with a year-to-date stock price change of 29.43% [4][10]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned within the online music industry, with expectations for continued growth in subscription and advertising revenues [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all covered companies in the internet and education sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [4]. Core Insights - The fundamental aspects of the internet and education industries continue to support valuation, with a focus on service platform opportunities. The report anticipates a potential increase in market expectations due to low base effects in the first half of 2025 [1][3]. - The report highlights the expected growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for major e-commerce players, with projections of +6% for the industry, +6% for Alibaba, +10% for JD.com, +13% for Pinduoduo, and +15% for Kuaishou [3]. - The report notes that the valuation of most companies is currently lower than the average level for 2024, presenting opportunities for companies with stable performance and potential for business expansion, particularly those leveraging AI [3]. Company Performance - In April 2025, the stock price performance of covered companies showed significant variation, with notable increases for companies like Cloud Music (+22%) and Youdao (+17%), while companies like TAL Education saw a decline of -34% [5]. - The report indicates that the proportion of Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings for covered companies has increased, with Alibaba's holding rising to 8.7% as of April 2025 [3][6]. - The report anticipates a small wave of companies returning to Hong Kong for listing, as nearly 30 companies meet the conditions for such a move [3]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies, including projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for FY25E and FY26E. For instance, Tencent is projected to have a P/E of 17.4 for FY25E, while Alibaba is expected to have a P/E of 10.7 [4]. - The average P/E ratio across the covered companies is projected to be 16.0 for FY25E, indicating a generally favorable valuation environment [4][9]. Market Trends - The report notes that the market for Chinese concept stocks listed in the U.S. is facing potential delisting risks, but the impact is expected to be less severe than in previous years [3]. - The report highlights the increasing trading volume of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong, with a significant rise in trading activity since the introduction of dual-class share structures [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for iQIYI (IQ US) with a target price of $2.40, indicating a potential upside of 28.3% from the current price of $1.87 [1][18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the improvement in long series and the effectiveness of investments in micro-short dramas. iQIYI is focusing on high-quality content while adapting to changing viewer attention spans by increasing micro-short drama investments and reducing the number of long series [2][6]. - The company is exploring content e-commerce based on its content ecosystem and user base, currently in a trial operation phase [6]. - The report anticipates a decline in brand advertising revenue due to market pressures, projecting a decrease of 11% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter to approximately 1.3 billion RMB [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for iQIYI are as follows: - 2023: 31,873 million RMB - 2024: 29,225 million RMB (down 8.3% YoY) - 2025E: 29,118 million RMB (down 0.4% YoY) - 2026E: 31,063 million RMB (up 6.7% YoY) - 2027E: 32,583 million RMB (up 4.9% YoY) [3][19] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: 2,838 million RMB - 2024: 1,512 million RMB (down 46.5% YoY) - 2025E: 1,643 million RMB (up 9.5% YoY) - 2026E: 2,158 million RMB (up 31.3% YoY) - 2027E: 2,719 million RMB (up 25.9% YoY) [3][19]. - The report notes a projected adjusted net profit of 3.0 billion RMB for Q1 2025, reflecting a decrease due to increased micro-drama investments [6]. Market Position and Performance - iQIYI's market share in the top 20 series and online variety shows is highlighted, with a 38% share in series and a 14% share in online variety shows for Q1 2025, showing a 14% increase and a 5% decrease respectively compared to the previous year [6][10]. - The company is expected to maintain its revenue expectations for 2025, although adjusted net profit expectations have been lowered by 11% to 1.6 billion RMB due to increased content and promotional investments [6]. Upcoming Content - iQIYI has announced over 400 upcoming long and short series, focusing on high-quality content and leveraging popular IPs for commercial value [6][7]. - The report lists several anticipated series and variety shows set to launch in 2025, indicating a robust content pipeline aimed at attracting viewers [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 36.90 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the study company is experiencing pressure in its study abroad business while maintaining stable performance in K12 education. The revenue for non-selective business is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin declining by approximately 2.5 percentage points due to slower growth in study abroad-related services and investments in cultural tourism [2][8]. - The company plans to allocate more resources to youth study abroad services, and with cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures taking effect, there is still potential for long-term profit margin improvement [2][8]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for FY25E have been slightly adjusted to USD 4,902 million, a decrease of 0.9% from previous estimates. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is projected at USD 5,670 million and USD 6,420 million, reflecting decreases of 2.2% and 3.9% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25E is forecasted at USD 503 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.3%. For FY26E and FY27E, the adjusted operating profit is expected to be USD 656 million and USD 771 million, with margins of 11.6% and 12.0% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at USD 474 million, with a net profit margin of 9.7%. For FY26E and FY27E, net profit is expected to be USD 519 million and USD 620 million, with margins of 9.2% and 9.7% respectively [3][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue sources, indicating that the study abroad consulting and preparation services are expected to generate USD 1,182 million in FY25E, while high school education is projected at USD 1,295 million. New business segments are expected to contribute USD 1,268 million [3][8][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 56.80 [4][27]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 35.4 billion and RMB 4.7 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9% and 8% [2][8]. - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization for the company's AI product, "可灵", which has generated RMB 100 million in revenue as of February [8]. - Revenue growth is projected to continue, with expectations of a 12% increase in 2025, driven by e-commerce GMV growth of 13% and online marketing revenue growth of 14% [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 113.47 billion in 2023, RMB 126.90 billion in 2024, RMB 141.64 billion in 2025, RMB 152.94 billion in 2026, and RMB 164.07 billion in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 11.8%, 11.6%, 8.0%, and 7.3% [3][28]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.59 billion in 2027, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 20.16 billion in 2025 [3][28]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from RMB 2.31 in 2023 to RMB 6.55 in 2027, with a significant jump to RMB 4.60 in 2025 [3][28]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 37.36% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 202.49 billion [6][8]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 66.35 and HKD 38.15 respectively, indicating a strong recovery from its lows [6]. Business Segments - E-commerce GMV grew by 14% year-on-year, with the number of active merchants increasing by over 25% [8]. - Online marketing revenue increased by 13%, primarily driven by external advertising, while live streaming revenue saw a slight decline of 2% [8]. - The local life services segment reported a significant increase, with monthly payment users and GMV growing by 52% and 100% respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 56.80 [4][27]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter performance met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 35.4 billion and RMB 4.7 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9% and 8% [2][8]. - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization for Kuaishou's AI capabilities, with a focus on increasing investment in inference computing power and R&D talent, which may impact profit margins by 1-2 percentage points [8]. - Revenue growth projections for 2025 are maintained at 12%, driven by e-commerce GMV growth of 13% and online marketing revenue growth of 14% [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 113.47 billion in 2023 to RMB 164.07 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [3][28]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.59 billion in 2027, with adjusted net profit margins remaining stable around 14% [3][28]. - The report notes a decrease in the forecasted EPS for 2025 by 8% to RMB 4.60, reflecting adjustments in profit expectations [8]. Business Segments - E-commerce GMV grew by 14% year-on-year, with a significant increase in the number of active merchants [8]. - Online marketing revenue increased by 13%, primarily driven by external advertising, while live streaming revenue saw a slight decline of 2% [8]. - The local life services segment showed strong growth, with monthly payment users and GMV increasing by 52% and 100% respectively [8]. Valuation and Market Performance - The report maintains a valuation premium for Kuaishou based on its leading AI video generation capabilities, applying a 13x P/E ratio for the 2025 estimates [8]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 37.36%, with a 52-week high of HKD 66.35 and a low of HKD 38.15 [6][27].

Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that consumption policies are driving growth across multiple categories, with a continued positive impact on Q1 performance expected [1][2]. - E-commerce growth is projected to continue, with an estimated GMV growth of 5% for the industry in 2025, driven by expanded subsidy programs and recovery in demand for home appliances [2][12]. - Specific company forecasts include Alibaba's GMV growth of 4%, JD's at 7%, Pinduoduo's at 13%, Kuaishou's at 12%, Douyin's at 25%, and WeChat Video's at 26% for 2025 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Valuation Overview - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 165.0, current price at 141.1, and FY25E EPS of 86.3 [1]. - Pinduoduo (PDD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 144.0, current price at 122.5, and FY25E EPS of 104.4 [1]. - JD (JD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 62.0, current price at 43.2, and FY25E EPS of 35.1 [1]. - Kuaishou (1024 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 54.0, current price at 64.9, and FY25E EPS of 5.0 [1]. - The average P/E ratio for the covered companies is projected at 13.4 for FY25E [1]. E-commerce Performance - The adjusted year-on-year growth for physical e-commerce retail sales in January-February 2025 is 5.0%, compared to 3.8% in December 2024 [2][5]. - The expansion of the trade-in subsidy program for mobile phones has led to a 26% increase in communication equipment sales, while home appliances continue to show double-digit growth at 11% [2][6]. - The report notes a 22% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in January-February 2025, attributed to e-commerce activities during holidays [10][11]. Company Updates - Alibaba's Taotian is focusing on growth through new product incentives and enhanced merchant support, with measures including high exposure traffic and commission rebates [2]. - Kuaishou's e-commerce data shows a 25% year-on-year increase in active merchants and a significant rise in GMV across various categories [2]. - JD's food delivery service has expanded to 126 cities, with over 300,000 restaurant partners, indicating a strong focus on enhancing retail synergy [2].