交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 今日焦点 | 卓胜微 300782 CH 关注产能爬升后利润率水平；维持中性 评级: 中性 | | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价: 人民币 80.02 潜在涨幅: -10.0% 人民币 | 目标价: | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | | | 72.00 | | 恒指 | 25,339 | 0.97 | 23.53 | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 国指 | 9,080 | 1.17 | 24.56 | | 1H25 同比由盈转亏，产能爬升对成本压力或接近峰值：2Q25 营收 9.48 亿 | | 上 A | 4,010 | 1.45 | 14.15 | | 元（人民币，下同），同比降 13%。2Q25/1H25 分别录得亏损 1.01/1.47 亿 | | 上 B | 267 | 0.25 | -0.26 | | 元。管理层提到，随着芯卓产品持续上量，产线运转效率提升，降本拐点 | | 深 A | 2,504 ...

点击按钮▲立即报名 美国Markit制造业PMI创三年新高 8月22日消息，多地土地市场已涌现出一批"调规再出让"的地块，调整规划后的地块市场表现显著提升。据悉，地块"调规"主要通过降低容积 率、降低商业比例、放宽计容规则等方式，增加项目开发价值与市场吸引力。以深圳宝安区一宗宅地为例，该地块原起始价为86.27亿元，地块 住宅部分占比49%，但无房企报名。今年7月，该地块重新挂牌，地块不仅大幅降低商业用地配比，还提高居住用地面积占比，并将起始价定为 64.09亿元。 据不完全统计，2024年以来，包括上海、深圳、广州、武汉、宁波、长沙等多个一线、二线城市已有地块通过调整规划重新入市。据悉，目前 土地"调规再出让"主要分为两类：一类地块是通过调规增加地块吸引力，使其顺利出让，另一类则主要是收储地块。（澎湃新闻） ｜点评｜ 近几年土拍市场持续遇冷，多地政府不仅拿出优质地块吸引房企，还在地块建筑规划上放松了限制。例如深圳宝安区的地块，地理位 置优质，只是原先地块商业规划占比过多。现在写字楼、购物中心等商业地产市场供大于求，地块上开发过多商业建筑，房企的最终盈利将面 临较大不确定。提高居住用地面积占比，降低容积率，房 ...

文｜财华社 8月21日（美东时间），哔哩哔哩（BILI.US）跳空大跌6.11%，成交量也有所放大；而到了8月22日（北京时间），哔哩哔哩-W（09626.HK）同样遭遇跳空 下跌，其股价一度大挫近8%，成交量也有所放大。 值得注意的是，就在8月21日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩（以下简称"B站"）披露了2025年第二季度及中期业绩，表现不俗。 第二季度及中期业绩不俗 公告显示，2025年上半年，B站的日均活跃用户（日活用户）为1.08亿，同比增加6%；月活用户则为3.65亿，同比增长8%。上半年，每位活跃用户的日均使 用时长达106分钟，高于去年同期的102分钟。 另外，上半年，月均付费用户达3180万，同比增长10%；上半年，约有200万名内容创作者透过多种变现工具在平台上获得了收入，内容创作者人均收入同 比增长20%。 在此基础之上，上半年，B站的营收同比增长21.6%至143.4亿元（人民币，下同）；期内净利润为2.1亿元，去年同期则是亏损13.7亿元；非公认会计准则 下，经调整净利润为9.2亿元，去年同期录得经调整净亏损7.3亿元。 | | 截至6月30日止六個月 | | | | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Company Ratings and Performance - Citic Securities maintains a buy rating for Airbnb (ABNB.O), highlighting its leading position in the global short-term rental market with nearly half market share, benefiting from inflation easing and rising travel demand [1] - CMB Securities maintains a buy rating for Alphabet (GOOG.O) with a target price of $221.0, reporting Q2 2025 revenue of $9.64 billion (+14% YoY) and net income of $2.82 billion (+19% YoY), driven by strong performance in Google Search and Google Cloud [2] - Haitong International maintains a buy rating for Bronco Billy o Ltd (BRBYF.F), noting a narrowing decline in same-store sales and a three-year high sell-through rate for the Autumn 25 series [3] - Haitong International maintains a neutral rating for Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH.O), reporting Q2 revenue of $363 million, but Q3 guidance is below market consensus [4] - Huachuang Securities gives a buy rating to NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.O), reporting Q2 revenue and profit exceeding expectations, with a stable automotive business and inventory levels normalizing [5] - Haitong International gives a buy rating to Baker Hughes (BKR.A), reporting Q2 EBITDA of $1.212 billion, exceeding expectations, with strong performance in both business segments [6] - Huatai Securities maintains a buy rating for Bilibili (BILI.O) with a target price of $37.1, reporting Q2 revenue and adjusted net profit exceeding expectations [7] - Citic Securities maintains an overweight rating for Texas Instruments (TXN.O) with a target price of $217, reporting Q2 performance exceeding expectations driven by industrial market demand [8][9] - CMB Securities maintains a buy rating for Coca-Cola (KO.N) with a target price of $75, reporting Q2 revenue of $12.62 billion, exceeding market expectations [15] Group 2: Strategic Developments and Future Outlook - CMB Securities raises the target price for Sands China (LVS.N) to $61.20, citing a 24% YoY increase in EBITDA driven by improved gaming win rates in Singapore [14] - CMB Securities maintains a buy rating for General Motors (GM.N) with a target price of $60, indicating a low current valuation and strong long-term fundamentals despite short-term pressures [17] - Haitong International gives a buy rating to New Oxygen (SY.O) with a target price of $10.1, highlighting the high growth potential in the light medical beauty chain industry [18] - CMB Securities maintains a buy rating for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N) with a target price of $51.60, reporting Q2 performance exceeding expectations due to cost optimization and copper price premiums [19]

Company Analysis - Bilibili (BILI US) is expected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 7.38 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5% [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 36% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 493 million, aligning with consensus expectations [2] - The strong performance in advertising and mobile gaming is supported by a well-established commercial infrastructure, contributing to the improvement in profit margins [2] - The FY25 total revenue forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards by 1% due to a more conservative outlook for value-added services in the second half of 2025, considering intense industry competition [2] - Despite the downward adjustment, the company’s profit growth outlook remains positive due to enhanced commercialization capabilities and operational leverage [2] - The target price for Bilibili has been raised to USD 28.8 from USD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Market Overview - Global market sentiment has improved due to agreements between the US and Japan, and nearing agreements between the US and Europe, which has positively impacted Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a continuation of upward trends, led by sectors such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and financials, while industrials and utilities declined [3] - A shift in capital from new consumption to the internet sector was noted, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 1.32 billion [3] - In the A-share market, there was a pullback after reaching highs, with declines in sectors like building materials, defense, and machinery, while non-bank financials, beauty care, and home appliances saw gains [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of China's anti-involution policies, with expectations that this round of capacity reduction may affect a broader range of industries, including steel, coal, building materials, photovoltaic, new energy equipment, lithium batteries, and pig farming [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the A-share and Hong Kong stock market for quality media companies, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustainability of the current market trend for quality media companies, driven by global resonance in AI application commercialization and the self-consumption trends of Generation Z [2]. - It highlights the global competitive strength of sectors such as gaming, trendy toys, and AI tools, along with differentiated competition based on category and tone [2]. - The report identifies specific opportunities within the AI application chain, particularly in areas like AI advertising, education, and productivity tools, which are expected to see accelerated commercialization [2]. Summary by Sections AI Application - The report notes that the globalization and commercialization of AI applications are progressing rapidly, with significant potential in AI advertising, education, programming, and enterprise-level AI [2]. - Specific companies like Meitu and Kuaishou are highlighted for their strong growth potential in AI applications, with Meitu being noted for its unique global positioning and Kuaishou for exceeding commercialization expectations [2]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is experiencing short-term volatility; however, the fundamentals of key companies remain strong. New product launches are expected to stabilize performance [2]. - Companies like Giant Network and G-bits are mentioned for their upcoming releases and strong market positions [2]. Cloud Computing - AI is driving a recovery in cloud computing revenue growth, with a focus on internet cloud computing firms that have clear advantages in their own scenarios [2]. - Alibaba is specifically mentioned for its cloud computing direction, which is expected to continue to deliver value [2]. Consumer Trends - The report continues to recommend consumer brands like Pop Mart and NetEase Cloud Music, which are expected to benefit from market expansion and increasing paid user growth [2]. Valuation Table - A detailed valuation table is provided, showing the market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for key companies in the gaming, film, and entertainment sectors, indicating growth rates and PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 [4].

Group 1 - Bilibili's stock price increased by over 4%, reaching 195.5 HKD with a trading volume of 377 million HKD [1] - On July 11, Bilibili held its 2025 Investor Day in Shanghai, discussing themes such as gaming, advertising, commercialization, and AI with investors [1] - Bank of America reiterated a "buy" rating for Bilibili, citing the company's focus on high-quality content, AI-enabled monetization, and long-lifecycle games [1] Group 2 - CICC highlighted Bilibili's focus on the long-term operation of its game "Three Strategies," with expectations of a 20% year-on-year increase in gaming revenue for 2025 [2] - The advertising business is expected to grow by approximately 15% year-on-year in 2025, with potential improvements in ad load levels and eCPM due to AI [2] - CICC forecasts a gross margin of about 37% for 2025, with long-term potential to increase to 40%-45% [2]

Group 1: JD Logistics - The company is expected to meet its Q2 performance expectations, with revenue continuing to show double-digit growth and profit increasing in the single digits year-on-year [1] - JD Logistics will provide full-time delivery services for the group's food delivery segment, settling at cost price, which will have limited short-term profit impact but aims for long-term synergy [1] - The target price is set at HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 40.4% from the closing price of HKD 13.18, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Bilibili - The focus is on enhancing advertising commercialization efficiency and long-term operation of core game IPs [2] - The company aims to strengthen its infrastructure capabilities, leveraging AI to reconstruct recommendation algorithms and improve advertising efficiency across multiple screens and scenarios [2] - The gaming segment is concentrating on long-term operations of core IPs, with new game launches expected to target niche markets and younger demographics [2] Group 3: Battery Industry - In the first half of 2025, China's power battery production and sales were robust, with a total installed capacity of 299.6 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.3% [4] - Exports of batteries showed a significant year-on-year increase of 56.8%, totaling 127.3 GWh, which accounted for 19.3% of total sales [4] - The overseas market for Chinese battery companies is expanding, with a market share of 43% among the top ten companies, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [5] Group 4: Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, with expectations of a month-on-month increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year increase of 2.40% [6] - The Industrial Producer Price Index for June is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 0.10% [6] - Retail sales for June are anticipated to decline by 0.90% month-on-month [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $26, representing a potential upside of 21.2% from the current price of $21.46 [6][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes Bilibili's focus on enhancing advertising commercialization efficiency and long-term operation of core game IPs. The company aims to expand its advertising ceiling while exploring diversified monetization models primarily targeting C-end users, supplemented by B-end strategies [1]. - Bilibili's advertising strategy involves deepening the value of mid-to-long video content, with a significant increase in advertising revenue from the content consumption and consumer goods sectors, showing a year-on-year growth of 90% and 30% respectively in the first half of the year [1]. - In gaming, Bilibili is concentrating on the long-term operation of core IPs, with successful titles like "Three Kingdoms" achieving record daily active users and maintaining strong revenue contributions from various platforms [1]. Summary by Sections Advertising Strategy - Bilibili is implementing a dual strategy in advertising, focusing on both content quality and market share expansion. The company is leveraging AI to enhance its advertising capabilities, including recommendation systems and intelligent ad placements [1]. - The report highlights that the advertising revenue from the gaming sector is expected to grow as Bilibili assists leading game companies in user retention and marketing budget allocation [1]. Gaming Operations - The report outlines Bilibili's successful game titles, including "Three Kingdoms," which has consistently ranked in the top three of the iOS bestseller list. The company plans to launch new versions and expand its gaming ecosystem [1]. - Upcoming game releases include a new PVE game and expansions for existing titles, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [1]. Financial Projections - The report projects an adjusted net profit of 2.3 billion RMB for 2025, with expectations for improved gross margins and profit release driven by scale effects and revenue structure optimization [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and success of the gaming company 点点互动 (DianDian Interactive) under the leadership of CEO 陈琦 (Chen Qi), highlighting its significant achievements, particularly with the game 《无尽冬日》 (Endless Winter), and its impact on the gaming industry and the parent company 世纪华通 (Century Huatong) [3][6][32]. Group 1: Company Background and Leadership - 点点互动 faced significant challenges in 2020, including a cash flow crisis and lack of hit games, yet maintained the trust of its chairman, 王佶 (Wang Ji) [3][6]. - 陈琦, with nearly a decade of experience in the gaming industry, has been pivotal in shaping the company's strategy and product development, focusing on overseas markets and self-developed games [5][20]. - The acquisition of 点点互动 by 世纪华通 in 2014 is noted as a significant event in Chinese gaming history, positioning the company for future growth despite initial skepticism [10][12][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Impact - By 2025, 世纪华通's stock price had increased nearly fivefold from its lowest point, driven by the success of 点点互动's products, particularly 《无尽冬日》 [7][32]. - The market valuation of 点点互动 approached 100 billion yuan, reflecting its substantial contribution to 世纪华通's overall financial health [7][32]. - The projected net profit for 世纪华通 is around 50 billion yuan, with 35-40 billion yuan expected from 点点互动, indicating its critical role in the parent company's financial performance [31]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Strategy - 点点互动's strategy involved a dual approach of overseas game publishing and self-development, with a focus on creating innovative gameplay that appeals to a broader audience [23][27]. - The game 《无尽冬日》 successfully combined casual gameplay with SLG mechanics, attracting a diverse player base and achieving significant revenue [34][37]. - The company adopted a flexible and data-driven approach to product development, allowing for rapid iteration and adaptation to market demands [26][42]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The success of 《无尽冬日》 has led to increased competition in the ice and snow survival genre, with many companies attempting to replicate its model [34][36]. - The article emphasizes the importance of innovation in gameplay and marketing strategies to maintain a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market [38][47]. - The shift towards lighter, more accessible gaming experiences is highlighted as a potential growth area for the industry, allowing smaller developers to compete with larger firms [47][48].