证券研究报告 | 2025年07月01日 网易云音乐（09899.HK） 优于大市 领先的年轻人音乐社区，付费用户数提升驱动订阅业务增长 领先的年轻人音乐社区。网易云音乐是中国领先的在线音乐流媒体平台， 核心业务涵盖在线音乐服务、社交娱乐服务及创新增值服务。依托 UGC 社区氛围与"乐评文化"沉淀，公司持续强化自制内容与原创音乐人扶 持体系，构建平台独有内容壁垒。丁磊持股比例约 60%。截至 2024 年， 网易集团持有公司控股权，持有股权约 60%；新加坡政府投资公司（GIC） 合计持股超 6%，是第二大机构股东。阿里巴巴当前持股比例低于 5%。 竞争格局：聚焦年轻人，竞争稳定，版权逐步回归。网易云音乐与腾讯音 乐构成双寡头格局。腾讯音乐市占 66%，网易云音乐约 27%。音乐平台 集中度高主要系：1）音乐平台当前主要系音乐播放器，用户重复播放 需求较高。用户在一个平台上收藏歌曲，并形成歌单和个性化推荐，形 成用户平台粘性；2）中游音乐平台需要支付高额的音乐版权费用。腾 讯音乐与网易云音乐的市场定位是用户需求自然分层的产物，网易云音 乐聚焦年轻人。根据 21 年招股书，网易云音乐活跃用户中约 90%是 90 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music has signed an acquisition agreement to purchase Ximalaya, marking a significant development in the audio content industry, with Ximalaya becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Music after the deal closes [4][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves a cash payment of $1.26 billion and a stock component where Ximalaya shareholders will receive up to 5.1986% of Tencent Music's Class A common stock and an additional 0.37% of Class A common stock for the founding shareholders [4][5]. - Ximalaya will undergo a business restructuring post-acquisition, but it will maintain its brand, product independence, core management team, and strategic direction [4][5]. Group 2: Ximalaya's Market Position - Founded in 2012, Ximalaya is a leading online audio platform in China, having faced challenges in its IPO journey, including multiple failed attempts to list on U.S. and Hong Kong exchanges [5][8]. - Ximalaya's revenue sources include subscriptions, advertising, and live streaming, with reported revenues of 5.857 billion yuan, 6.061 billion yuan, and 6.163 billion yuan for 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively [5][8]. Group 3: Industry Context - The online audio market is perceived as having a limited business model, especially with the rise of short video platforms, leading to a less favorable view from capital markets [8][9]. - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move for Tencent Music to enhance its non-music content offerings and potentially explore new business avenues with Ximalaya [6][8].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 14.69 | 美元 | 美元 17.00 | +15.7% | | | 腾讯音乐 (TME US) | | | | | | | | SVIP | 运营及利润释放 | | | 聚焦高质量会员增长，关注 | | | | | 我们小幅上调 2025 年经调整净利润 3%至 89 亿元（人民币，下同），维持 SOTP 目标价 17 美元/66 港元（1698 HK），其中：1）音乐 14 美元，参考可比 优质音乐平台及版权公司平均 20 倍市盈率；2）社交 1 美元，基于 8 倍市盈 率；3）现金 2 美元。我们持续看好在线音乐稳健增长，预计 ARPPU 提升拉动 效果将会高于会员数增加，关注会员权益、粉丝经济及长音频拉动SVIP增长， 看好订阅及广告收入增长、自制内容增加持续促进毛利率优化，股东回馈持 续，维持买入。 盈利预测变动 | | | | —————2025E————— —————2026E————— | | | | | ...