8月13日，财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，消费是经济增长的重要引擎，是畅通国内大 循环的关键环节。个人消费贷款财政贴息政策，直接惠及广大人民群众，是中央财政首次对个人消费贷 款进行贴息。贴息对象为居民使用相关贷款经办机构个人消费贷款中实际用于消费的部分，包括单笔5 万元以下的日常消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训、文化旅游、家居家 装、电子产品和健康医疗等重点领域消费。贴息比例为1个百分点，大体为当前商业银行个人消费贷款 利率水平的三分之一，政策实施1年。从消费结构看，目前我国服务消费仍具有较大增长潜力，要释放 其潜力，需要有高品质的供给，因此，我们同步实施了服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，贴息对象是向消 费领域服务业消费经营主体发放的银行贷款，聚焦餐饮住宿、健康、养老、托育、家政、文化娱乐、旅 游、体育等八类主要消费服务业领域。贴息比例为1个百分点，可以贴息1年，服务业经营主体单户享受 贴息的贷款规模最高100万元，单户享受贴息最高1万元。这两项政策到期后，我们还会开展效果评估， 研究视情延长政策期限、扩大支持范围和调整贷款经办范围。（央视新闻） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to stimulate consumer spending and reduce credit costs for residents [1][2] - The subsidy policy will be effective from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, covering personal consumption loans used for various key areas such as automobiles, education, and healthcare [1][2] - The annual subsidy rate is set at 1%, with a maximum limit of 50% of the loan contract interest rate, and the total subsidy cap for each borrower is 3,000 yuan, corresponding to a cumulative consumption amount of 300,000 yuan [2] Group 2 - A separate subsidy policy for service industry loan recipients has been introduced, targeting sectors such as dining, health, and tourism, with loans issued between March 16, 2025, and December 31, 2025 [3][4] - The central government will cover 90% of the subsidy costs, while provincial governments will cover the remaining 10%, with a maximum loan amount of 1 million yuan per entity [4] - Strict regulations are in place to ensure that the loan funds are used appropriately, prohibiting misuse for real estate or speculative investments [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the manufacturing PMI declined marginally, and the economic momentum of the manufacturing industry also showed a marginal decline, indicating downward pressure on the overall economy. However, the Politburo meeting has set a positive policy tone, and the economy is expected to make steady progress. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and incremental policies may be introduced when economic data shows continuous downward pressure [3][7]. - The Fed's Powell made relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting. The Fed's core goals are employment and inflation. The inflation data in June was pushed up by rising commodity prices, slightly exceeding expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Marginal Decline, Policy Still Has Resilience 3.1.1 Manufacturing PMI Marginal Decline - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations, and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The new export order index dropped to 47.1%. The raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index increased by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Tone Continues to Be Proactive and Effective - The Politburo meeting at the end of July continued the previous policy tone and further clarified the intensity and direction of policy efforts in the second half of the year. The decision - makers are aware of the economic situation, acknowledging that while the economy has shown good performance in the first half, there are still potential risks in the second half. The consumer demand is weak, and corporate profit growth is negative, with over - capacity in some industries [9]. - The policy space in the second half of the year is sufficient, and fiscal and monetary policies will work together. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, which may be implemented when overseas interest - rate pressure eases and domestic economic pressure increases. Service consumption may become a new engine for consumption growth in the second half of the year, and the stock market's allocation value is gradually emerging [12][17][19]. 3.1.3 Focus on US Inflation and Employment Data - The inflation data in June slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by rising commodity prices. At the FOMC meeting, the Fed paused interest - rate cuts as expected, and there was internal disagreement. Powell's speech sent a hawkish signal, and the subsequent path of inflation is uncertain, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts may fluctuate with economic data [21]. 3.2 Key Economic Data and Events to Focus On 3.2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the release of the national childcare subsidy plan, market regulation of inferior and low - price competition, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaics. Key economic data shows that the total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to June was 40.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24][27]. 3.2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, the Treasury Department significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and there were internal differences. There were also issues related to tariffs, employment, and economic growth. Geopolitical events included Trump's stance on Russia, and cease - fire agreements in Thailand and Cambodia [28][34]. 3.3 Key Events and Data to Focus on Next Week - The table lists key events and data to be released next week, including US treasury bill auction rates, eurozone PPI, US export and import volumes, and Chinese CPI and PPI data [36]. 3.4 Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes - The report provides charts of domestic stock index trends, bond market trends, and various commodity index trends, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and various South China commodity indices [38].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term trend of the economy remains positive despite external shocks and challenges [2] Group 1: Economic Performance - In Q1, GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, indicating improved social confidence and progress in high-quality development [2] - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining ample liquidity and reducing social financing costs [2] - As of the end of March, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.4% and 7.0% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 265.4 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Direction - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains abundant [3][4] - The focus will be on balancing short-term and long-term goals, stabilizing growth while preventing risks, and enhancing policy coordination [4] - The central bank aims to promote reasonable price recovery and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [4] Group 3: Consumer Support Initiatives - The central bank plans to introduce a comprehensive financial policy package to boost consumption, which is crucial for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [5][6] - Specific measures include maintaining a favorable financial environment for consumption, enhancing financial services in key sectors, and optimizing consumer credit products [6] Group 4: Price Trends - The report indicates that price levels are expected to recover from low levels, with Q1 core CPI rising by 0.3% and a narrowing decline in PPI [7][8] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices [8]