12月的俄乌博弈再添变数：11日乌克兰总统泽连斯基抛出重磅提议，称乌领土问题的妥协需靠全民公投决定；次日俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫就强硬回 应，直言俄方要的是"真和平"而非"临时停战"，警告乌方别想借公投喘息。一边是泽连斯基试图用公投规避政治风险，一边是俄方坚守和平底线不让步， 这场隔空交锋看似是俄乌的领土之争，实则暗藏冲击中国能源供应、搅乱贸易秩序的风险，值得咱们密切警惕。 先把这场博弈的核心信息拆明白，别被表面的"和平话术"带偏。 与中国无直接关联的是"内部流程博弈"：比如泽连斯基提议的公投需先修改乌戒严期法律，仅选民投票筹备就需两千万美元资金；佩斯科夫强调的"可靠和 平保障"，具体涉及俄方对顿涅茨克等地区的控制权主张。这些是俄乌基于自身利益的细节拉扯，咱们当个背景了解即可。 真正关乎中国的是两大核心风险。一是能源供应波动风险，当前俄军在顿巴斯持续推进，乌军已开始袭击俄里海采油平台等能源核心设施，12日就有俄采 油平台因袭击暂停作业。俄罗斯是中国第一大原油供应国，若博弈升级导致俄能源出口受阻，国际油价大概率会跟风暴涨，咱们的加油、化工生产成本都 会直线上升。二是贸易合作受阻风险，乌克兰是中国重要的粮食和化 ...

转自：新华财经 精准滴灌港口粮贸，畅枢纽、保流通 围绕辽宁在"北粮南运"格局中的枢纽定位，农行辽宁省分行持续加强对港口粮食贸易、仓储物流等关键 环节的金融支持，创新专属信贷产品，优化服务流程，全力保障粮食供应链高效运转，让优质东北玉米 更快、更好地抵达南方市场。9月以来，农行辽宁省分行粮食流通领域贷款累计投放28亿元，同比多增 18亿元。 农行沈阳分行客户经理走进粮食领域 农行锦州开发区支行客 中国农业银行辽宁省分行（简称农行辽宁省分行）积极发挥国有大行作用，围绕粮食收购、仓储、流通 等环节全力保障"北粮南运"通道畅通。 重点服务龙头企业，稳收购、保安全 农行辽宁省分行深入对接重点龙头企业和大型收储主体的生产计划和产业布局，制定综合服务方案、提 供大额信贷支持，助力企业从容应对长周期、大规模的收购任务。9月以来，农行辽宁省分行已向农业 产业化龙头企业累计投放贷款17亿元。 重点客户十月稻田了解融资需求 农行沈阳分行持续加大对十月稻田等重点龙头企业信贷支持力度，建立深度稳固的银企合作关系。同时 依托龙头企业的产业辐射与聚合效应，推出"稻米产业集群"整体授信服务模式，为45家区域稻米加工骨 干企业提供整体授信额度 ...

Group 1 - Recent domestic high-quality corn prices have shown an upward trend, particularly since November 20, with Dalian corn futures main contract price increasing by approximately 100 yuan/ton as of December 3 [1] - The significant price increase is attributed to lower quality and yield of new season corn in regions like Henan, along with unmet market expectations for inventory wheat auctions [1] - Factors such as reduced storage difficulties due to lower temperatures and increased transportation costs for corn from Northeast China have supported corn prices [1] Group 2 - The domestic corn market is experiencing a clear divergence, with high-quality corn being scarce and expensive, while low-quality corn is abundant and cheaper [2] - Adverse weather conditions during the corn harvest season have led to decreased yield and quality across several provinces, contributing to the overall tight supply of high-quality corn in Northeast China [2] - The failure of expected inventory wheat auctions has kept wheat prices high, preventing wheat from entering the feed market and alleviating selling pressure on corn, thus boosting market confidence [2] - Despite the current price increases, there is an expectation of sufficient supply of high-quality corn in the future due to increased production in Northeast China and higher anticipated imports [2]

Group 1: Inland Transportation - Wheat prices have fluctuated, returning to a high level, with a steady pace of grain shipments from holders, while the supply of autumn grains like rice is increasing, supporting high inland grain shipping rates [1] - The overall market for circulating grain is relatively tight due to low levels of reserve wheat releases, while the arrival of autumn grains provides additional shipping demand, maintaining high inland shipping rates [1] - Upstream drought conditions have tightened shipping capacity, and the influx of northeastern corn has further increased shipping costs, with maintenance at some local locks exacerbating the pressure on shipping capacity [1] Group 2: Coastal Transportation - In coastal grain transportation, the volume of wheat shipments from the Jiangsu and Anhui regions has not significantly increased, but shipping rates remain high due to strong demand from the northern market and adverse weather conditions [3] - The shipping cost from Anning Port to Guangdong for a 5000-ton vessel is 80-85 yuan/ton, while to Fujian it is 70-75 yuan/ton, indicating sustained high shipping rates despite a lack of significant volume increase [3] - The efficiency of ship turnover at northern ports has decreased, and rising costs for rail and road transport have stimulated water transport demand, leading to tight shipping capacity on southern routes [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The pace of autumn grain listings is expected to accelerate, keeping inland shipping demand active, with close attention needed on the dynamics of wheat and autumn grain sales and shipping capacity changes [2] - Coastal shipping rates are currently at a two-year high, influenced by rising costs in shipping operations, and there is potential for a price correction as weather improves and port operations in the north become more efficient [4] - Future market focus will be on the coordination of purchasing and sales between northern and southern regions as the traditional consumption peak approaches [4]

原标题：11月28日河南省贸易小麦成交结果 来源：南方小麦网 | | 2025年11月28日河南省贸易粮成交结果 | | | | | 单位:数量,吨;比率:%;价格:元/吨 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 委托单位 | | 交易类型 粮食性质 品种 | 生产年限 | 计划数量 | 成交数量 | 成交比率 起报价 最高价 最低价 平均价 | | | | | 五得利集团新乡面粉有限公 采购 E | | 贸易 小麦 | 2020- 2024 | 3000 | 1500 | 50% 2566 | 2566 | 2566 | 2566 | | 合计 | | | | 3000 | 1500 | 50% | 2566 | 2566 | 2566 | （来源：南方小麦网） 来源：市场资讯 ...

大家都知道，中国粮食库存，尤其是稻谷储备，一直稳坐全球头把交椅，手里攥着超过1亿吨的存量，差不多占全世界一半多。 可偏偏在2025年上半年，海关总署的数据一出炉，就让人有点摸不着头脑：1到5月，大米进口量同比猛涨86.8%，单月最高增幅甚至冲到77.6%。库存那么 多，还进口干啥？ 有人说中国在扫荡全球粮食，有人担心国内粮仓是不是出问题了。其实，这是中国在国际粮食市场上玩的一手聪明牌，利用低价机会搞套利，顺带调整国内 供应结构。 中国稻谷库存高企，这点没争议。农业农村部的统计显示，储备量超1亿吨，主要用来调控市场，不是天天扔到流通环节。2025年进口大米均价3545元一 吨，同比跌17.2%，比华南地区本地米还划算。 企业算账算得精明，越南、印度、泰国这些出口国为了抢中国市场，互相压价，中国坐收渔翁之利。数据上看，越南进口量从去年同期几乎为零，跳到近10 万吨，印度和泰国也跟上。 人民币汇率稳稳的，在7.15到7.21区间晃悠，企业敢签长单囤货。反观其他地方，阿根廷比索贬值超100%，土耳其里拉跌60%，出口商宁愿用人民币结算， 避开风险。中国就这样成了全球粮食贸易的稳定锚。 玉米和小麦进口量几乎腰斩，大米却 ...

（来源：每日粮油） 以粮油仓储贸易企业为例，目前全国粮食标准仓房完好仓容超过7.3亿吨，比"十三五"时期末增加5800 万吨，如果加上这几年民间资本建立的粮仓数量，该数据预计至少仍有30%以上的增长。 来源：每日粮油 关注每日粮油，了解全球市场最新动态。 近年来，随着全球国际形势的变化，各国在对包括粮食、原油、稀土、镍等大宗原料商品市场的争夺愈 加激烈，并传导至下游生产贸易企业层面，跨国性商品贸易集团的合并重组也愈加快速，在此期间，代 表我国走向世界粮食市场的中粮国际也快速成长为全球粮商巨头。 但由于此前中国在国际商品市场的失败案例，从2003年的第一次大豆危机，再到原油宝、中航油套保巨 亏等案例，让不少投资者对国际大宗商品交易工具——期货市场仍心有余悸。 在最近一次的内部讨论中，每日粮油就期货对粮食产业的风险规避问题也进行了简单的交流，特别是针 对当前国内玉米市场面临产量、需求不确定性，实体企业该如何利用期货工具避险？ 据悉，今年玉米市场走势较为复杂，部分网友认为今年黄淮地区遭遇历史罕见的持续阴雨天气，无论对 玉米的品质和产量都构成了极大的影响，且造成大面积的小麦冬播延迟，加上玉米价格已经跌至近10年 的低 ...

贸易商指出，此次招标允许从不同产地发运小麦，预计供应来源可能包括黑海地区或欧盟国家，后续可 能还会公布新的价格与采购数量。 《曙光报》网站11月12日报道，欧洲贸易商透露，阿尔及利亚通过一项仅限于穆斯塔加奈姆和提奈斯两 港口卸货的有限招标，采购了未披露数量的面粉小麦。采购价格预估以263至264美元/吨的价格运至穆 斯塔加奈姆港，而运往提奈斯港的价格则为270至271美元/吨。 ...

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign companies to explore the Chinese market and reflects their intentions and expectations [1][2] - American companies are increasing their presence in the Chinese market despite trade challenges, with significant participation in the CIIE, showcasing over 50,000 square meters of exhibition space [2] - Companies like Cargill and GE Healthcare are demonstrating their commitment by presenting a wide range of innovative products and aiming for substantial new collaborations, with Cargill targeting over $3 billion in new partnerships [2] Group 2 - The American Grain Association emphasizes the CIIE as a bridge for understanding and trust, aiming to explore sustainable grain and energy systems with Chinese partners [2] - The American Soybean Export Association highlights the potential for growth in the Chinese market and expresses a desire to maintain strong relationships and trust with Chinese consumers [2] - Qualcomm and JLL are committed to aligning their technological visions and services with the needs of the Chinese market, indicating a long-term investment strategy in China [3]

Group 1 - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign companies to explore the Chinese market and indicates foreign investment trends [1][2] - American companies are increasing their presence in the Chinese market despite trade challenges, with significant participation from major firms like Cargill and GE Healthcare [2] - Cargill plans to achieve over $3 billion in new cooperation at the expo, showcasing over 100 innovative products, while GE Healthcare launched 18 new products, setting records for both new product quantity and global debuts [2] Group 2 - The expo facilitates understanding and trust between international and Chinese businesses, with American agricultural associations highlighting innovative applications of U.S. grains in food and feed [2] - American soybean exporters express confidence in the Chinese market's growth potential, emphasizing the importance of maintaining trust and relationships in ongoing trade [2] - Qualcomm and JLL reaffirm their commitment to integrating global technology with China's industrial needs, aiming to assist multinational companies in transforming exhibits into commercial opportunities [3]