投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-20 美国可能介⼊伊以冲突，原油延续较⾼ 波动率 彭博报道，美国高层官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动袭击做准备， 涉事人员也表示，情势仍在变化，可能会有所改变。从原油的波动率看， 6月18日拐头后6月19日再度攀升。市场依旧关注霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的可 能，期权市场近期开始反映这种风险，看涨期权相对于看跌期权的溢价居 高不下，超过了2022年俄乌冲突时对俄罗斯供应减量的担忧。原油的格局 仍处于动荡中。 板块逻辑： 化工品处于上下两难的格局当中，主逻辑仍是跟随原油延续强势上 涨。化工链条公布周度数据，整体呈现终端开工下滑，上游开工攀升的格 局。以聚酯产业链为例，EG开工率升至五年最高，TA开工率周度略降， 聚酯周度开工小幅抬升，终端织造和印染开工下滑2-3%。产业链自身利好 仍略显平淡，原油延续强势，化工补涨仍是近期的主基调。 原油：地缘风险加剧，油价波动放大 LPG：成本端支撑增加，PG跟随原油反弹 沥青：地缘升级，沥青地缘溢价来袭 高硫燃油：地缘升级，高硫燃油地缘溢价来袭 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油走强 甲醇：伊以 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Nengzhiguang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has received approval for its initial public offering (IPO) on the Beijing Stock Exchange, focusing on the research, production, and sales of chemically modified functional polymer plastics [1] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 556 million yuan, 569 million yuan, and 611 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, indicating a revenue growth of 7.26% in 2024 [1] - Net profits for the same years were 21.86 million yuan, 49.81 million yuan, and 55.94 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.31% in 2024 [1] - Key financial metrics for 2024 include: - Revenue: 61,054.19 million yuan - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 5,594.09 million yuan - Basic earnings per share: 0.86 yuan - Weighted average return on equity: 15.92% [1] Investment Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to expanding production capacity for functional polymer materials, building a research and development center, and supplementing working capital [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.554 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 787 million yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from the lithium extraction project significantly declined, impacting the overall performance of the system equipment segment, while the adsorption materials business showed robust growth [2][3]. - The life sciences segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by the demand for high-quality solid-phase synthesis carriers and the performance of GLP-1 peptide drugs [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 662 million yuan, down 27.4% year-on-year, but up 10.89% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 191 million yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 577 million yuan, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year and 12.91% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit was 193 million yuan, an increase of 14.2% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The adsorption materials business generated 1.986 billion yuan in revenue, up 27.61% year-on-year, while the system equipment segment saw a revenue decline of 43.13% to 469 million yuan [2]. - The revenue from the lithium extraction system equipment was only 99 million yuan in 2024, a dramatic drop of 80.96% compared to 520 million yuan in 2023 [2]. Growth Areas - The life sciences segment's revenue reached 568 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 28% [3]. - The ultra-pure water segment achieved significant breakthroughs, with substantial orders from key semiconductor companies, indicating a growing market presence [3]. Profitability Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.127 billion yuan, 1.463 billion yuan, and 1.706 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [3].

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7000-7400 | 12.33% | 21.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 聚乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | 析 | 口 | | | 向 | | 区间 | | | 产成品 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空塑 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7350-740 0 | | | 库存偏 | | 料期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 库存管 | 高，担 | | | | | | | | 理 | 心塑料 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - V2509 rose and then fell, closing at 4,833 yuan/ton. The supply side was affected by the extended impact of previously shut - down devices such as Qilu Petrochemical and Fujian Wanhua. Last week, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.47% to 79.25% week - on - week. - On the demand side, last week, the downstream PVC operating rate decreased by 0.47% to 45.8% week - on - week. Among them, the pipe operating rate decreased by 1.44% to 42.94% week - on - week, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.5% to 37.55% week - on - week. - In terms of inventory, last week, the PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% to 573,600 tons week - on - week, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. - In June, there were many domestic PVC annual inspection devices. This week, the 200,000 - ton device of Henan Yuhang was planned for annual inspection, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to continue to decline. - The domestic downstream demand was in the off - season, and the Indian market was affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification and anti - dumping duties and the rainy season. - In terms of cost, domestic calcium carbide shut - down devices remained, and some devices had indefinite production restrictions, supporting the calcium carbide price. The import volume of ethylene decreased, and the price might be strongly sorted. PVC had weak supply and demand, and the strong cost provided support for the futures price. The daily K - line of V2509 should pay attention to the support near 4,790 and the pressure near 4,900 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4,833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The trading volume was 834,032 lots, a decrease of 360,614 lots. The open interest was 962,017 lots, a decrease of 16,925 lots. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 762,413 lots, an increase of 6,957 lots. The sell order volume was 778,513 lots, an increase of 9,691 lots. The net buy order volume was - 16,100 lots, a decrease of 2,734 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,755.38 yuan/ton, unchanged. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,822.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 79.25%, a decrease of 1.47%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.77%, a decrease of 0.54%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 72.59%, a decrease of 3.94%. - The total social inventory of PVC was 354,800 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 312,200 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons. The total social inventory in the South China region was 42,600 tons, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.1. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, an increase of 48.3938 million square meters. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.2031505 billion square meters, an increase of 66.0961 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 148.7313 billion yuan, an increase of 387.111 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 14.06%, an increase of 0.04%. The 40 - day historical volatility was 16.55%, an increase of 0.04%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.59%, a decrease of 0.18%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.58%, a decrease of 0.19% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 17, the cash - spot price of Changzhou PVCSG5 in the warehouse remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4,720 to 4,790 yuan/ton. - From June 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.25%, a decrease of 1.47% compared with the previous period. - As of June 12th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% to 573,600 tons week - on - week and decreased by 36.83% year - on - year [3].

Core Insights - Kynar PVDF (Polyvinylidene Fluoride) series materials from Arkema stand out due to their excellent weather resistance, chemical stability, and mechanical properties, making them essential in various industries such as construction, chemicals, electronics, and energy [2] Group 1: Overview of PVDF Materials - Kynar PVDF is a semi-crystalline thermoplastic fluoropolymer produced from the polymerization of vinylidene fluoride monomer, characterized by high chemical stability due to the presence of fluorine atoms in its molecular chain [3] Group 2: Characteristics of Kynar PVDF Models - Kynar PVDF 710 is known for its balanced performance, featuring high tensile strength and elongation at break, making it suitable for structural components in general industrial environments [5] - Kynar PVDF 720 enhances weather resistance, ideal for outdoor applications such as building facades and photovoltaic back sheets, with improved surface treatment for lasting color and gloss [6] - Kynar PVDF 740 is designed for high-temperature applications, maintaining stable physical and chemical properties under elevated temperatures, suitable for chemical pipelines and electronic component packaging [6] - Kynar PVDF 760, the premium model, offers superior wear resistance, scratch resistance, and self-cleaning properties, making it suitable for high-end applications like architectural facades and automotive parts [8] Group 3: Application Areas and Market Outlook - In the construction sector, Kynar PVDF materials are widely used for exterior wall cladding, roofing, and window protection due to their weather resistance and aesthetic appeal [8] - In the chemical industry, Kynar PVDF's corrosion resistance and high-temperature stability are crucial for manufacturing pipelines, storage tanks, and reactors [8] - In the electronics field, Kynar PVDF serves as an encapsulation material, providing insulation and weather resistance that enhance the reliability and lifespan of electronic products [8] - In the energy sector, Kynar PVDF is utilized in photovoltaic systems as back sheets and cable sheathing, ensuring long-term stable operation [8]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性上升，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向将主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【530-570】 | | LPG | | 成本端油价走强，基本面边际改善，液化气短线偏强。原油受伊以冲突带 | | | | 动走强，成本端利好；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE 开工率上升； | | | 偏强 | 库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：短线偏强，波动加剧，双买 | | | | 期权。PG【4300-4400】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 成本支撑好转，期现齐涨，华北基差为-18（环比-17），关注后续库存去 化力度。本周装置重启计划偏多，预计产量继续增加；社会库存转为累库， | | | | 农膜需求淡季，下游补库动力不足，后市中游存在继续累库风险。策略： | | | | 短期地缘冲突尚不明朗，空单减持。基差维持负值，上游企业可择机卖保。 | | | | ...

Economic Indicators - In May, various leading indicators from the National Information Center indicate a strong economic recovery in multiple sectors, reflecting a positive trend towards "new" growth and robust vitality [1] - Government investment has been increasing, with project approvals accelerating [1] Investment Trends - The national excavator index in May was 47.34%, with 16 provinces showing rapid construction activity, particularly Anhui, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jilin, and Liaoning [3] - The Northeast region had the highest construction rate at 60.39%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.58% and a month-on-month increase of 17.01% in workload [3] - Project bidding amounts in May increased by 21.5% year-on-year, marking a new high for the year, with significant growth in healthcare, municipal facilities, energy, and transportation sectors [3] Industrial Production - The industrial economy is exhibiting dual vitality from "traditional momentum recovery" and "new productive forces emergence" [4] - The industrial park production heat index rose by 21.2% year-on-year, indicating sustained high production activity and enhanced industrial clustering effects [6] - Traditional industries are experiencing widespread increases in operational heat, with significant improvements in textiles, chemicals, steel, and plastics [6] - Innovation among startups and technology-driven enterprises has also surged, with growth rates exceeding 20% year-on-year [6] Consumer Trends - In May, multiple consumer sector indicators showed an upward trend, indicating a steady improvement in overall consumption [8] - The offline consumption heat index increased by 25.7% year-on-year, while the life service consumption heat index rose by 14.6%, with significant growth in leisure, accommodation, and dining sectors [9] - Consumer enthusiasm has been bolstered by effective promotional policies, with home appliance online retail sales increasing by 31.0% year-on-year [9]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Runyang Technology (300920) has seen a stock price increase, reaching a recent high, while making strategic adjustments to its cash management of idle fundraising funds [1]. Company Announcements - Runyang Technology's stock closed at 47.99 yuan as of June 13, 2025, up 2.13% from the previous week, with a market cap of 4.799 billion yuan, ranking 30th in the plastic sector and 3022nd in the A-share market [1]. - The company held its 16th board meeting and 13th supervisory meeting, approving an adjustment to the cash management limit for idle fundraising funds from 100 million yuan to 180 million yuan, aimed at improving fund efficiency and increasing company returns [1][3]. - Runyang Technology has repaid 15 million yuan of idle fundraising funds that were temporarily used to supplement working capital, with the repayment period not exceeding 12 months [1][3].

Core Insights - The Chinese PS industry has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 13% since 2019, driven by profit motives, downstream demand growth, and integrated project extensions, but is now facing an oversupply situation due to demand growth lagging behind supply growth [1][3][5] - The industry is expected to continue expanding, with total PS capacity projected to exceed 8 million tons by the end of 2025 [1] Production Capacity and Utilization - From 2020 to 2024, domestic PS capacity is steadily increasing, with a CAGR of 13.36% since 2019, although the pace of new project launches is slowing down due to mismatched supply and demand growth [1][3] - The annual capacity utilization rate for the PS industry is projected to decline to 63.87% in 2024 and below 60% by the end of 2025 [5] Profitability Trends - The profitability of the PS industry has fluctuated, with a peak in 2020 due to export benefits, where GPPS and HIPS gross profit margins reached 1722 CNY/ton and 3200 CNY/ton respectively [3] - Since 2021, the industry has faced declining profitability, with average losses for GPPS and HIPS due to supply-demand imbalances, although a slight recovery is expected in 2024-2025 [3][5] Import and Export Dynamics - The import dependency of the Chinese PS market has decreased, with the import volume declining to a low of 10.65% as domestic production has increased [7] - The export volume of Chinese PS has seen a compound growth rate of 40.52% since 2019, with exports expected to reach 215,900 tons in 2024, nearly six times the volume in 2020 [7][9] Regional Export Insights - Southeast Asia remains the primary export market for Chinese PS, with Vietnam consistently accounting for 21-28% of exports from 2020 to 2025 [9] - The share of exports to Europe has increased from 4% in 2021 to 22% in 2024, driven by high costs in Europe and a demand gap [10] Future Outlook - The competition in the PS market is expected to intensify, leading to further price advantages and a stable increase in export proportions, particularly for ordinary grades of PS [12][14] - The supply of high-end PS resources remains limited, with the majority of future demand likely to be met domestically rather than through exports [14]