Core Viewpoint - The rebound in polyethylene prices is limited due to insufficient fundamental support, primarily driven by capital market dynamics and geopolitical tensions [5][18]. Supply Side - Domestic polyethylene supply showed a slight increase in operating rates and production, with an operating rate of 84.67%, up 3.08% week-on-week, and a weekly production of 69.89 million tons, an increase of 2.91 million tons [8][27]. - The industry is experiencing a gradual release of capacity as major facilities restart operations, which may continue to exert pressure on prices [8][27]. - The import and export windows for polyethylene remain closed, with domestic imports expected to decline further [10][29]. Demand Side - The demand side is characterized by a traditional consumption off-season, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream sectors [11][30]. - The overall operating rate in downstream industries is 39.53%, down 1.4% week-on-week, primarily due to the upcoming Spring Festival [11][30]. - Specific sectors like agricultural films are experiencing reduced operating rates, with the agricultural film sector at 36.32%, down 0.61% [13][32]. Inventory - Domestic polyethylene inventory continues to decrease, but the rate of reduction has slowed down [14][33]. - As of January 13, production enterprise inventory was 335,000 tons, down 1.53 million tons week-on-week, while trader inventory was 26,600 tons, down 0.26 million tons [14][33]. Cost Side - Rising raw material prices, influenced by geopolitical factors, are providing some support to the market, although the overall oil market remains weak [16][35]. - The recent increase in propylene and methanol futures prices has not significantly improved the spot market transaction atmosphere [16][35]. Summary - Short-term polyethylene prices are expected to maintain a "cost support + capital-driven" oscillating strong trend, but the upside is constrained by fundamental factors [18][37]. - With strong cost support and positive capital market sentiment, polyethylene prices may continue to rise slightly, but the overall volatility is likely to be limited due to high price levels and low acceptance from downstream buyers [18][37].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for both PE and PP is "oscillation", indicating that in the short - term, the market is expected to have an amplitude between - 5% and 5% [3][4] 2. Report's Core View - The short - term market for both PE (LLDPE) and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the market will mainly move in an oscillatory pattern [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes Supply - This week, China's total polyethylene production was 69.89 tons, a 4.34% increase from last week, and the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, a 3.07 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Although there were new maintenance plans in some enterprises, the restart of 10 previously shut - down units led to an increase in capacity utilization [3] Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period, and the average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.3%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 13.407 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.21%. In December 2025, the import volume was 1.3299 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.62% and a month - on - month increase of 25.21% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous period, and the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from the previous period. The inventory decline was mainly due to production enterprises' price cuts to reduce inventory [3] Cost - The oil - based production cost increased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, while the coal - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production costs decreased by 33, 129, 244, and 66 yuan/ton respectively [3] Profit - The import profit of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased compared with the previous period. The overall profit of PE was lower than the same period last year [3][26] Import and Export - PE exports were better than the same period last year [29] PP Fundamental Changes Capacity and Production - This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 784,900 tons, a 0.53% increase from last week and a 9.36% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 76.02%, a 0.40% increase from the previous period [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 2.21% from the previous period, the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased by 6.15%, and the inventory of sample port enterprises decreased by 7.51%. Overall, the inventory at various levels was higher than the same period last year, except for port inventory which was lower [4][47][54] Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PP showed significant divergence. The average operating rate of polypropylene increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87%. As the temperature dropped, the demand in downstream industries such as plastic weaving and transparent PP entered a seasonal off - season [4] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production were restored, while the profit of PP production from externally purchased propylene declined. The average import profit of Chinese polypropylene samples was - 352.61 yuan/ton, a 44.60% decrease from last week. The production profit was similar to the same period last year [4][82]

Core Viewpoint - A total of 934 companies in the A-share market have released performance forecasts for 2025, with 506 companies expecting varying degrees of net profit growth, and 16 companies anticipating a net profit increase of over 500% [1] Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - The significant net profit growth is attributed to factors such as expanding domestic and international markets, cost reduction, and enhancing product value [1] - Different companies have unique drivers for their performance growth, including low previous performance baselines, stable long-term operations, and substantial changes in their main business sectors [1] - In the oil, chemical, plastic, and polymer industries, 51 out of 78 companies forecast net profit increases, with 22 companies expecting over 100% growth [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics is a key factor, with supply constraints due to the end of capacity expansion cycles and high-cost production exiting the market, leading to price recovery [2] - Domestic growth policies are boosting demand in sectors like new energy, home appliances, and automotive, while export markets remain resilient [2] - Companies in the oil, chemical, plastic, and polymer sectors are experiencing profit margin improvements due to rising product prices, as highlighted by specific companies like Limin Holdings, which expects a net profit increase of 471.55% to 514.57% [2][3] - Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit growth of 80% to 101% due to rising prices of core products and stable production volumes [3] - The current upcycle in high-demand industries is expected to be more prolonged than previous cycles, particularly benefiting leading companies with global market presence [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 23, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a moderately high level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price dropped. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and plastic will fluctuate in a range. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 23, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price dropped due to increased inventory. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and the terminal demand has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and plastic will fluctuate in a range. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a closing price of 6865 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.87%. The position increased by 3532 lots to 519056 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets rose, with a price change range of -0 to +150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6720 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6860 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 23, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons week-on-week to 500,000 tons, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but average recently. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week-on-week at $710/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week-on-week at $690/ton [4].

Group 1 - The company, Jusalong, has been focused on the modified plastics sector since its establishment [1] - The main products include PP, PC/ABS, PA, PBT, and ABS, which are widely used in various fields such as home appliances, automotive industry, electronic communication, and medical supplies [1]

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a rise of 1.68% on January 23, with Ruihua Tai leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] - Ruihua Tai's stock price increased by 20.01% to 25.91, with a trading volume of 192,300 shares and a transaction value of 470 million [1] Group 2 - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 137 million from institutional investors and 308 million from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 446 million [2] - The stock "Puli Te" had a net inflow of 1.47 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 1.61 million from retail investors [3] - "Nengzhiguang" had a significant net inflow of 673.1 million from institutional investors, indicating strong interest [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded. From a fundamental perspective, the market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the transmission of macro factors to commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices also supports chemicals at the cost - end. Overall, the current spot drive for polyolefins is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6865, 6814, and 6845 respectively, with price increases of 145, 148, and 151, and percentage increases of 2.16%, 2.22%, and 2.26% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 96, 515971, and 24588, and the open interests were 123, 515524, and 53810, with increases of 35, 11162, and 1329 respectively [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6599, 6624, and 6649 respectively, with price increases of 106, 139, and 130, and percentage increases of 1.63%, 2.14%, and 1.99% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 1226, 422990, and 30196, and the open interests were 1525, 486782, and 90621, with increases of 881, 18459, and 4985 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 51, - 31, and - 20 respectively, compared to previous values of 54, - 28, and - 26. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 25, - 25, and 50 respectively, compared to previous values of 8, - 34, and 26 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2261 yuan/ton, 6175 yuan/ton, 620 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6370 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2211 yuan/ton, 6170 yuan/ton, 600 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6270 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market**: The current prices in the LL East China, North China, and South China markets are 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, the same as before. The current prices in the PP East China, North China, and South China markets are 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, the same as before [2] News - On Thursday (January 22), the settlement price of the March 2026 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.36 per barrel, down $1.26 or 2.08% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.96 - $60.82. The settlement price of the March 2026 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.06 per barrel, down $1.18 or 1.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.56 - $65.38 [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The risk preference of LLDPE continues to spill over, and the basis weakens significantly. The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, the mid - stream order placement improves, but the basis weakens. The downstream product profit is compressed, resisting high prices. The external quotation rises, and the long - term import profit is opened. The raw material end oil price strengthens, the ethylene monomer weakens, and the PE process profit is repaired. The supply side has new capacity trial - production and the maintenance plan decreases, and there is supply - demand pressure in the medium term[1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6814, with a daily increase of 2.22%. The trading volume is 567,632, and the position changes by 11,162[1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract is - 164 (previous day: - 146), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 31 (previous day: - 28)[1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot price in North China is 6650 yuan/ton (previous day: 6520), in East China is 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6650), and in South China is 6750 yuan/ton (previous day: 6700)[1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, and the mid - stream order placement improves again. The production of standard products continues to rise, the trading volume weakens significantly, and the basis weakens sharply. The downstream product profit is compressed and resists high prices. The external quotation rises, the LL supply is scarce, the long - term import profit is opened, and the importer's trading volume increases. The downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Geopolitical intensification may support the US dollar market to run strongly[1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end oil price strengthens, the Middle East geopolitical risk is not released, the ethylene monomer link weakens, and the PE ethylene and ethane process profits are repaired. The PE futures market continues to rebound, the trading volume is mostly concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising price to replenish goods. The downstream agricultural film is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but after the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, the factory inventory decreases slightly, and the basis is weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial - production, the maintenance plan in January decreases month - on - month, some FD switches back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high inventory capacity and weakening demand in the medium term still needs to be concerned[2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to fluctuate in a range recently. Due to new plastic production capacities coming on - stream, a higher plastics operating rate than PP, and a continuous decline in agricultural film orders, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow. The improvement in the plastics supply - demand situation is limited, and downstream operating rates are expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - On January 22, new maintenance units such as the second line of Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93% compared to the previous week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The recent rebound in crude oil prices was driven by factors such as the temporary shutdown of a Kazakhstan oilfield, the postponed restart of CPC3 SPM, and increased heating oil demand due to cold weather. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream operating rates are expected to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make purchases based on刚需 [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased in position, fluctuated, and rose. The lowest price was 6,666 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,818 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,814 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.62%. The open interest increased by 11,162 lots to 515,524 lots [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - Most prices in the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6,600 - 6,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,820 - 8,040 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On January 22, new maintenance units such as the second line of Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 90%, at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand side: As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93% compared to the previous week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 540,000 tons compared to the previous day, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65 per barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $710 per ton compared to the previous period, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $690 per ton compared to the previous period [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company has pioneered a specialized BOPA film for solid-state batteries, addressing the industry's need for high energy density, lightweight, flexibility, and safety in packaging solutions [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Xiamen Changsu, has developed the first solid-state battery-specific BOPA film in the industry [1] - The company is collaborating with industry chain enterprises to draft, publish, and implement industry standards for aluminum-plastic composite films used in solid-state batteries [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The new BOPA film is compatible with soft-pack stacking processes, making it a crucial solution for the packaging of soft-pack solid-state batteries [1] - The film meets the current demands of the solid-state battery market, which emphasizes high energy density, lightweight design, flexibility, and safety [1]