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冠通每日交易策略-20250924
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 11:18
Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Glass rose nearly 5%, fuel oil rose over 3%, and container shipping to Europe, polysilicon, and soda ash rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell nearly 3%, rapeseed oil fell over 1%, and lithium carbonate and soybean meal fell nearly 1%. Stock index futures of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose 1.69%, 0.94%, 3.90%, and 3.22% respectively. Treasury bond futures of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) fell 0.03%, 0.08%, 0.10%, and 0.41% respectively [5] - As of 15:31 on September 24, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Gold 2512 inflowed 1.12 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 inflowed 616 million yuan, and Shanghai Silver 2512 inflowed 424 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 1000 2512 outflowed 3.235 billion yuan, CSI 300 2512 outflowed 2.086 billion yuan, and rapeseed oil 2601 outflowed 434 million yuan [7] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong oscillation. The supply of copper concentrate and refined copper is tight. The TC/RC fees are weakly stable, and smelters' profitability is under pressure. The supply of scrap copper will decrease significantly in September, and the import of refined copper has declined. The demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, but overseas macro factors still impact copper prices, and copper prices fluctuate narrowly [9] - **Crude Oil**: The peak travel season for crude oil is over. The overall oil inventory in the US has increased, and the refinery operating rate has declined. OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment in October 2025, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The price of Saudi Aramco's flagship product has been cut. The geopolitical situation and demand concerns co - exist, and it is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt开工率 has slightly declined but is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production in September has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate downward [12] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded, and the enterprise operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded due to the oil price. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that PP will oscillate [14] - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 has declined, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that plastic will oscillate [15][16] - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The export expectation has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure and decline [17] - **Urea**: Urea opened high and moved low, with a slightly strong oscillation. The spot sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still weak. The daily production has recovered, and the demand is mainly for pre - holiday restocking. The inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The upward space of the futures price is limited [18][19]
冠通每日交易策略-20250923
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 10:00
Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) [1] Market Summary Futures Market Performance - As of September 23 closing, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Beans No. 2, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean oil, and caustic soda dropped over 3%; palm oil, polysilicon, and soda ash fell over 2.5%. Shanghai gold and silver rose over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.25%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.26%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) dropped 0.78%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.16%. 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.05%, 5-year (TF) fell 0.13%, 10-year (T) fell 0.21%, and 30-year (TL) fell 0.67% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:15 on September 23, in terms of capital inflow to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 5.797 billion, Shanghai Gold 2512 had 3.357 billion, and CSI 300 2512 had 3.343 billion. In terms of outflow, Rapeseed Oil 2601 had an outflow of 789 million, Soybean Oil 2601 had 489 million, and Palm Oil 2601 had 429 million [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, oscillating weakly. Supply of copper ore and refined copper is tight. As of September 19, China's spot TC was -40.64 dollars/dry ton, RC was -4.05 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. Many smelters had maintenance in September, with small and medium - sized ones under profit pressure. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% MoM decrease but a 15.59% YoY increase. Affected by policies, scrap copper supply will decline significantly in September, and electrolytic copper output is expected to drop sharply. In August, imported copper quantity decreased to 307,200 tons, a MoM decrease of 27,300 tons. Demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, reducing SHFE inventory. Fundamentals are tight, demand is resilient, but overseas macro factors still impact Shanghai copper, leading to narrow price fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows a significant unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories, but a larger - than - expected build in refined oil inventories, increasing overall oil product inventories and reducing US refinery operating rates by 1.6 percentage points. Starting from October 2025, OPEC+ will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, increasing pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arabian Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by 1 dollar/barrel. With geopolitical risks not escalating further, the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase, it is recommended to short on rallies [11][12] Asphalt - Last week, asphalt operating rate dropped 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In September, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.686 million tons, a MoM increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a YoY increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). Downstream operating rates rose, but road asphalt operating rate is still at the lowest level in recent years due to funds and weather. National shipments increased 31.10% MoM to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level. Refinery inventory decreased but is still at a low level in recent years. With new production and weather and fund constraints, supply surplus is intensifying, and with the recent decline in crude oil futures prices, asphalt cost support is weakening, and its futures price is expected to decline [13] PP - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. On September 23, new maintenance devices increased, and PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 80%, at a neutral - low level. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production remained around 24.5%. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, increased US distillate inventories, and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices fell. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Although downstream is entering the peak season, current peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there is no large - scale centralized procurement. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Plastic - On September 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained around 85%, at a neutral level. PE downstream operating rate rose 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, with increasing orders and raw material inventories but at a slower pace. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's rate cut and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices declined. New capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has decreased. Although the agricultural film peak season is coming, the peak - season effect is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [16] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. PVC operating rate decreased 2.98 percentage points to 76.96%, at a neutral - high level in recent years. In the peak season, PVC downstream operating rate continued to increase, exceeding last year's level but still low compared to other years. India postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. Chinese PVC exports are expected to weaken in Q4, but export orders have increased recently. Social inventory continued to rise and is still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. New capacity has been put into operation. With cost support strengthening and pre - holiday downstream stocking, but new production resuming and a low basis, PVC is expected to face downward pressure [18] Urea - Urea opened low and moved high, closing flat. The spot market remains weak, with limited improvement in sales after price cuts. Urea daily output has returned to over 190,000 tons. Before the holidays, downstream buyers stock up at low prices, and industrial demand is mainly for rigid needs. The compound fertilizer factory operating rate increased but at a slower pace, with high finished - product inventory. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than in previous years. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and it is necessary to monitor the progress and intensity of pre - holiday stocking [19][20]
原油:过剩担忧重燃,油价冲高回落
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 08:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has confirmed the start of a second - round production increase, and the off - peak demand season has arrived as expected. The pressure of crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter will further increase. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined the production increase route, once the oil price rises, it will boost the enthusiasm for production increase, which will always suppress the upside of the oil price. The medium - to - long - term strategy of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In the short term, the interest rate cut, one of the bullish drivers, has been implemented. It is expected that WTI will mainly fluctuate between $60 - $65 after a correction, waiting for further drivers to break the range. Seize the rebound trading opportunities brought by the volatile geopolitical situation [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis - **Crude Oil Price Trends**: From September 15 - 19, international oil prices rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, oil prices rose due to sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States and interest rate cut expectations. After the interest rate cut was implemented, the macro - premium began to be continuously adjusted. As of September 19, WTI and Brent settled at $63.62/barrel (+1.43%) and $67.6/barrel (+1.42%) respectively; INE SC settled at 493.22 yuan/barrel (+2.18%) [9]. - **Financial Aspects**: The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, in line with market expectations. As of September 19, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound since mid - April and reached a new high; the VIX volatility was 15.45, significantly lower than when the tariff policy was first introduced and still at a relatively low level [13]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility declined this week, and the dollar index fluctuated. As of September 19, the crude oil volatility ETF was 30.53, and the dollar index was 97.6519. Although the Fed cut interest rates this week, Powell's speech was slightly hawkish. The market priced in only one interest rate cut in each of next year and the year after, causing the dollar index to fluctuate [17]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of September 16, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 26,800 contracts to 36,800 contracts week - on - week, a weekly increase of 267.9%; the speculative net long positions decreased by 9,900 contracts to 61,900 contracts, a weekly decline of 13.8%. The market bet on the intensification of geopolitical sanctions risks, and the interest rate cut expectations boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in net long positions before the interest rate cut was implemented [20]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Overall Production**: In August, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day compared with the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the way. However, the production of the eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 154,000 barrels per day lower than the plan in August, mainly because some countries were fulfilling their submitted compensation production - cut plans [26]. - **OPEC+ Production - Cut Situation**: According to the IEA statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries in August was 23.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 190,000 barrels per day. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still over - produced significantly, but the overall over - production of the nine countries decreased compared with the previous month. Seven countries updated their compensation production - cut plans, and the concentrated production cuts were extended to the first half of next year [30]. - **Saudi and Iranian Crude Oil Production**: Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise. In August, its crude oil production increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 9.709 million barrels per day. Iran's production continued to decline. In August, its crude oil production decreased by 27,000 barrels per day to 3.218 million barrels per day, affected by sanctions and the Israel - Iran war [32]. - **Russian Crude Oil Supply**: According to the OPEC statistics, Russia's crude oil production in August was 9.173 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 barrels per day; according to the IEA statistics, it was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 barrels per day. Production is gradually recovering under the production - increase plan but remains at a relatively low level [42]. - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week of September 19, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 418, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian region has significantly decreased, and the potential for crude oil production increase may be limited [46]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of September 12, US crude oil production marginally rebounded to 13.482 million barrels per day, a decrease of 13,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 2.14%. Low oil prices in the first half of the year dampened producers' enthusiasm, compressing the potential for US oil production increase in the second half of the year. However, relatively healthy oil prices during the peak season in the third quarter and high well production efficiency will prevent production from a sharp decline [49]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Total Petroleum Product Demand**: US petroleum product demand has peaked and declined. The single - week demand for refined oil products has rebounded, but the four - week average demand has decreased. In absolute terms, the current demand level is at the upper end of historical levels, and the peak - season demand has peaked. As of the week of September 12, the four - week average total demand for petroleum products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 217,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.69% [53]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: From August 12 to September 12, US crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day (-0.10%), consumption decreased by 217,000 barrels per day (-1.04%), refinery processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day (-2.34%), and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 1.6% (-1.69%). Gasoline production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day (-1.88%), and the implied demand decreased by 8,000 barrels per day (-0.09%). Distillate production decreased by 274,000 barrels per day (-5.24%), and the implied demand decreased by 86,000 barrels per day (-2.26%) [57]. - **US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Four - Week Average Consumption**: As of September 12, the four - week average demand for gasoline decreased by 8,000 barrels per day to 8.919 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; the average demand for distillates decreased by 86,000 barrels per day to 3.727 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.77%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 69,000 barrels per day to 1.703 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.13% [60]. - **US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: This week, the US gasoline crack spread and heating oil crack spread fluctuated. As of September 19, the gasoline crack spread was $20.09 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $33.87 per barrel. The crude oil side was relatively strong due to geopolitical uncertainties, while gasoline demand showed signs of peaking, causing the crack spread to decline seasonally. The heating oil took over the demand baton, but the crack spread also declined due to unexpected inventory builds [61]. - **European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of September 19, the ICE diesel crack spread was $27.93 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.87 per barrel. Supported by the seasonal recovery of distillate demand, the crack spreads had rebounded, but the unexpected inventory build of distillates this week raised market concerns, causing the crack spreads to decline slightly [65]. - **China's Oil Products and Refinery Situation**: In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.391 million tons year - on - year to 63.46 million tons (+7.43%); the import volume increased by 392,000 tons year - on - year to 49.492 million tons (+0.8%). Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation this year, China's oil imports from the Gulf region have surged, and Russia's oil supply has also rebounded significantly compared with previous years. The import volume rebounded seasonally in August [68]. - **Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth**: Three major international institutions have become more optimistic about this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintained last month's forecast, while the IEA and EIA raised their forecasts for global oil demand growth. In September, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC expected the global crude oil demand growth rate this year to be 900,000 barrels per day (↑), 740,000 barrels per day (↑), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively, and 1.28 million barrels per day, 700,000 barrels per day, and 1.4 million barrels per day next year [72]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories declined again to a very low level in the five - year range due to the rebound in exports. As of September 12, EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.52%; SPR inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.73 million barrels; and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels to 23.561 million barrels [73]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the week of September 12, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 3.111 million barrels per day to 415,000 barrels per day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 16.424 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% [77]. - **WTI and Brent Month - Spreads**: As of September 19, the WTI M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.28 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $1.16 per barrel. The WTI month - spread maintained a backwardation structure but continued to weaken. The Brent M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.64 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $1.49 per barrel. The Brent month - spread was stronger than the WTI this week due to European sanctions on Russian crude oil, which tightened the supply outlook in Europe [80][82]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In September, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 105.54 million barrels per day, and demand would be 103.81 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.73 million barrels, an increase from last month. Although the EIA raised its demand forecast, due to OPEC+ opening a flexible production - increase window of 1.65 million barrels per day, the pressure of supply surplus this year is expected to be greater [85]. - **Term Structure**: This week, the US fundamental data indicated that the peak - season demand had peaked, and the term structure continued to flatten. Due to geopolitical factors, the supply of Brent was expected to be tighter, supporting a stronger contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure, but as the peak - season demand weakens, if OPEC+ continues to accelerate production increase in the near - term, the term structure may change [88].
原油:原油震荡下行
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 10:01
【冠通研究】 原油:原油震荡下行 制作日期:2025年9月12日 【策略分析】 空单暂时逐步止盈离场 原油逐步退出季节性出行旺季,目前EIA数据显示美国原油、汽油超预期累库,精炼油累库幅度 超预期,整体油品库存继续增加,不过,美国炼厂开工率小幅回升0.6个百分点,仍然较高。9月7日, OPEC+正式发表声明,鉴于全球经济前景稳定、市场基本面健康(反映在较低的原油库存水平上), 八国决定将自2023年4月宣布的每日165万桶额外自愿减产中,实施每日13.7万桶的产量调整,该调整 将于2025年10月起实施。此165万桶/日的产量可根据市场形势变化部分或全部恢复,且将以循序渐进 方式进行。八个欧佩克+国家将于10月5日举行下次会议,这将加剧四季度的原油压力,IEA最新月报 再度提高原油过剩幅度。沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元 /桶。美国对印度商品额外征收25%的关税,印度若放弃采购俄罗斯原油,将导致全球原油贸易流变 动,造成对中东原油现货的抢购。目前俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后,印度继续进口俄罗斯原油,印度和 美国仍在继续谈判。关注后续俄乌停火协议谈判进展及印度对于俄罗斯原油的采购情 ...
高盛:原油过剩加剧,2026年底布油或跌至50美元出头
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-27 07:20
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that due to a surge in global crude oil inventories, Brent crude prices may fall to just above $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 [1] - Starting from Q4 2025, a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day is expected in the global oil market, leading to an accumulation of nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [1] - OECD countries are projected to contribute about one-third of the inventory increase, reaching 270 million barrels, coinciding with a decline in oil demand from these countries, further pressuring oil prices [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices may remain near current forward contract levels in 2025, but this balance is expected to break in 2026 [1] - The "fair value" of Brent crude is anticipated to decrease from the current range of $70 to the $50 range, especially as inventories continue to accumulate in 2026 [1]
IEA报表:原油2026年过剩幅度创纪录,原油带动油化回落
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 03:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide a specific overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, individual product outlooks suggest a mix of trends, with many products expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation with a downward bias" in the short - term [9][11][13]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IEA monthly report indicates that in 2026, the global oil surplus will reach a record high due to slowed demand growth and increased supply. The oil market is currently under pressure, and the chemical industry chain is likely to face an oversupply situation. High - inventory varieties may experience a small - scale adjustment, and the future demand trend will determine the performance of the January contracts [2][3]. - The stock market is performing strongly, while the oil market is weak. The seasonal peak of global aviation kerosene demand is about to subside, which has a negative impact on medium - distillate products [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs A. Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure still exists. The EIA data shows that the demand at the refinery level in the US in the week of August 8th was relatively strong, but the overall inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased, which is bearish. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th may reduce concerns about Russian oil supply and the geopolitical premium [2][9]. - **Stock Market**: The US stock market has soared to a record high due to mild inflation data, and the stock markets in other regions of the world are also performing well [2]. B. Product - Specific Analysis - **Asphalt**: It has fallen below the important support level of 3500 yuan. The futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. The increase in OPEC+ production, potential tariff hikes, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are all negative factors. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and its valuation is relatively high [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak oscillatory state. The increase in supply due to OPEC+ production hikes, the increase in import tariffs in China, weak demand in the US gasoline and Middle - East power - generation sectors, and the weakening of the three driving factors (Russia - Ukraine conflict, local refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict) all contribute to the supply - demand imbalance [11][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price is oscillating weakly following the trend of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the increase in domestic refined - oil supply pressure [13]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and it is in an oscillatory state. The production profit is relatively high, but the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [29]. - **Urea**: Supported by orders and market sentiment, the futures price has temporarily stabilized and strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has slowed down, and the daily production is at a high level. The market is mainly supported by pending orders and macro - sentiment, and its future trend depends on actual demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is in an oscillatory state. The supply change is limited, and the downstream polyester load is stable, but the overall sales performance is poor [22][23]. - **PX**: The cost support has weakened again, and the entire polyester chain is in a downward trend. The supply pressure continues, and the cost support in the short - term has weakened. The short - term price will fluctuate at a low level following the upstream cost [15]. - **PTA**: The cost support has weakened, the sales performance is mediocre, and the warehouse - receipt pressure has increased. The supply has increased while the demand has weakened, and the short - term price will follow the cost for low - level consolidation [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and inventory replenishment is cautious. The upstream raw material price has declined, the cost support is weak, and the short - term price will oscillate at a low level [25][26]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The upstream polymerization cost support has declined, and the overall supply - demand situation has changed little [26][27]. - **PP**: Supply still exists, and it is in an oscillatory state. The coal and oil markets have an impact on it. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition, with a slow increase in downstream开工 [35][36]. - **Propylene**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 yuan is considered reasonable, and PL is in a short - term oscillatory state. The PDH enterprises in some areas are under maintenance, and the spot market is temporarily stable [36]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. It is in an oscillatory state. Oil prices are oscillating weakly, the macro - level has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in a slow transition from the off - season to the peak season [33][34]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import volume has decreased, and downstream production capacity has been put into operation. The buying sentiment has increased, and the market structure has changed to Back. The port inventory has decreased, which has boosted market sentiment, and the short - term fundamentals are okay [17][20]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is still weak. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The cost support from pure benzene is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak [20][22]. - **PVC**: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost is expected to rise [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the market is cautiously optimistic. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand from the alumina industry, improved export orders, and high - level production [40]. C. Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing different trends of change [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse - receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [42]. - **Inter - product Spread**: Data on inter - product spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented, which helps in analyzing the relative valuation between different products [44].