格隆汇2月13日｜由于全球市场情绪转向规避风险、对全球原油过剩的担忧以及美伊核协议谈判可能陷 入持久战，油价料将出现今年以来首次连续两周下跌。WTI原油稳定在每桶63美元下方，周四该基准原 油下跌近3%，而布伦特原油收于67美元上方。继美股再次下跌以及大宗商品普遍走低后，亚洲股市周 五也趋于下行。在伊朗问题上，美特朗普表示，他认为谈判可能会持续长达一个月，这降低了近期可能 扰乱供应的军事行动的可能性。目前，这位美国领导人正在寻求通过外交协议来遏制这一欧佩克成员国 的核野心。与此同时，国际能源署重申，2026年日均原油供应过剩将超过370万桶，这将创下年度平均 水平的历史纪录。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market is experiencing a bullish sentiment, driven by the strong performance of the metal sector, with significant gains in various commodity indices [1][3] - As of January 7, the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1630.09 points, up 20.20 points (1.25%), while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2249.33 points, up 27.87 points (1.25%) [1] - Major industrial metals showed a general increase, with nickel hitting the limit up, tin rising over 5%, while copper saw a slight increase of less than 0.2% after reaching a historical high [1][3] Group 2 - Nickel prices are supported by tightening export policies from Indonesia, which has led to expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics for nickel [3][4] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association has revised its 2026 nickel ore production target down by 34% to approximately 250 million tons, which is a significant reduction from the previous target of 379 million tons for 2025 [3] - The domestic market for nickel and stainless steel is experiencing a tightening supply, with rising prices leading to accelerated inventory depletion [4] Group 3 - Despite the bullish sentiment in the commodity market, certain sectors like SC crude oil are still facing downward pressure due to an oversupply situation [5][6] - The SC crude oil market saw a decline of over 2.57%, reflecting ongoing concerns about supply exceeding demand [5][6] - Precious metals faced profit-taking, with platinum dropping over 2% and Shanghai gold retreating below 1000 yuan per gram [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The impact of the US attack on Venezuela on crude oil is limited, and the market may return to the downward drive caused by the oversupply pressure in the first quarter. Chemical products should be treated differently in the future. Asphalt can be a key long - position variety, while styrene can be a key short - position variety to focus on. PX - PTA should be observed in the short term and wait for the end of the callback to enter long positions in the next stage [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil. Venezuela has become an edge producer with about 1% of global output and 50 - 80 barrels per day of daily exports. After the event, the market may return to the downward drive of oversupply pressure in the first quarter [2][3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The price hit a new low recently. The short - term upper pressure is at 436. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Asphalt - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has a substantial impact on domestic asphalt raw materials. With the paralysis of Venezuelan crude oil exports, the Venezuelan heavy oil (accounting for over 40% of domestic asphalt raw materials) faces a real supply cut. The asphalt market faces dual upward drives of supply reduction and cost increase. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. The volume is well - matched, and there is still an upward space after the accumulation of momentum. The short - term support is at 2990. The strategy is to hold half of the long - position in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2990 [7]. Styrene - Logic: The entire styrene industry chain has high inventory. The high inventory of pure benzene upstream drags down the price of styrene. The downstream 3S has weak demand and profits. The industry is in an oversupply state. If the expected export increase in January is false, the price of styrene will fall [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure, but the upward volume is insufficient. The 15 - minute cycle has changed from a decline to a shock. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short - positions in the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6835 [11][13]. Rubber - Logic: The seasonal inventory accumulation rate of domestic natural rubber is fast, and the inventory is higher than the same period. Coupled with the high inventory pressure of downstream tires, there is no strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price followed by a decline at the end of the session, the short - term support is moved up to 15700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Synthetic rubber maintains a high - operating state and has a slight inventory reduction due to traders' replenishment. The raw material butadiene also has an inventory reduction, but the high supply pressure of butadiene and the high inventory pressure of downstream tires limit the upward space. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 11750 [17]. PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. However, due to the low acceptance of downstream polyester in the off - season, there is a short - term callback. In the medium term, there is an opportunity for a second low - entry long - position due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 7390. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [20][23]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but there is a short - term callback due to downstream factors. There is a medium - term opportunity for a second low - entry long - position. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 5205. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is moved up to 6350. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Methanol - Logic: The methanol port inventory is at a historically high level. Although there is an expected reduction in Iranian ship arrivals, the downstream MTO profit is weakening, and the fundamental drive is still weak. The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on methanol. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume followed by a decline, the short - term support is at 2200. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. PVC - Logic: PVC has high production, weak demand, and high inventory, but the current valuation is low. Pay attention to the expected trading of policy and spring maintenance in the first quarter. The news of Shaanxi's proposed differential electricity price for the calcium carbide industry has a short - term positive impact on the market. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 4820. The strategy is to hold long - positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 4820 [34]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weak coal price on the cost side and the continuous inventory accumulation at the port, along with weakening demand, mean that the fundamentals do not provide a strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. After a decrease in volume followed by an increase in price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is at 6435. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39]. Soda Ash - Logic: The inventory pressure of soda ash has weakened slightly, but it is still high compared to the same period. The over - supply pattern caused by large - scale capacity expansion in recent years remains unchanged, and there is no expected increase in terminal demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a large increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 1215. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda has high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling at present. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. After a large increase in volume and price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant military action taken by the U.S. against Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Maduro and the intention to manage Venezuela's oil resources, which could lead to substantial investments from U.S. oil companies [1] - Venezuela has proven oil reserves of 300 billion barrels, accounting for approximately 17% of the world's total, making it the largest in the world [1] - Despite its vast reserves, Venezuela's oil production has been severely limited due to U.S. economic sanctions, with current production levels expected to recover to about 960,000 barrels per day by November 2025, still far below the previous high of 2 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - Market analysts predict that the U.S. military action, combined with recent geopolitical events, will increase volatility in the oil market [1] - Economists suggest that while short-term oil prices may rise due to the conflict, long-term prices could decrease as U.S. oil capital enters Venezuela, potentially boosting future oil export capacity [1] - The oil market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical conflicts and oversupply, with short-term price increases expected to be temporary, while mid-term pressures from oversupply may intensify [2]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for October and November showed a decline of 105,000 jobs in October and an increase of 64,000 jobs in November, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [2] - The labor market remains weak, and the Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing labor market stability and inflation control, with the non-farm report not significantly impacting gold prices [2] - Gold prices are currently consolidating and have not approached the historical high of $4,380 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The market has likely absorbed the impact of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in Russian oil exports and a subsequent decline in oil prices [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.81 million barrels as of the week ending December 5, indicating weak demand and a sluggish market [5] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including U.S. efforts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggests that the oil market will continue to experience an oversupply and a downward trend [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a range of $4,275 to $4,350, with a focus on potential breakout points [3] - Oil prices are nearing an annual low of $55.10, with key support at $54.60 and resistance at $55.80 [6] - The Nasdaq index is in a high-level consolidation phase, with support at 24,900 and resistance at 25,250 [8] - Copper prices are fluctuating between $5.20 and $5.43, suggesting a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [8]

Core Viewpoint - The oil stocks have collectively declined following a significant drop in international oil prices, marking the largest decrease since June [1] Group 1: Company Performance - CNOOC (00883) fell by 2.96%, trading at HKD 22.26 [1] - China Oilfield Services (02883) decreased by 2.86%, trading at HKD 7.82 [1] - PetroChina (00857) dropped by 1.43%, trading at HKD 8.94 [1] - Sinopec (00386) declined by 1.57%, trading at HKD 4.40 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - WTI crude oil futures for December delivery fell by 4.2%, erasing gains from the previous three trading days [1] - January Brent crude oil decreased by 3.8% [1] - OPEC's monthly oil market report indicates a slight oversupply in the oil market by 2026 due to increased global supply, contrasting previous forecasts of prolonged supply shortages [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. The OPEC monthly report confirmed an oversupply of 500,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in Q3 2025, which is different from the previous shortage forecast. The strengthening of refined oil products is reflected in both crack spreads and calendar spreads, while the calendar spreads of crude oil are gradually weakening. The rise in crude oil prices has not driven the chemical sector, and various chemical products are showing different trends [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory continued to build up last week, and the EIA short - term energy outlook report raised the forecast of US crude oil production. The OPEC monthly report adjusted its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price of asphalt is oscillating. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the calendar spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of fuel oil is oscillating. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the strength of refined oil products, low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [13]. - **PX**: Market sentiment tends to be rational. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the processing fee is strongly supported. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate slightly upwards [14]. - **PTA**: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term increase slows down, and it turns to range - bound consolidation [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port resumes inventory accumulation, and pure benzene runs weakly. The current upward driving force is insufficient, but the valuation is at a low level [16]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about inventory overflow, and styrene oscillates weakly. The pressure in November is mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot circulation is loose, and there are still production profits. The hope of reversing the downward trend in the short - term market is slim. The price will maintain a low - level range - bound operation [19]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market follows the "buy - on - dips" principle, and pay attention to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. The short - fiber price follows the upstream to oscillate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. The processing fee is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short - term [24]. - **Methanol**: The high - inventory reality suppresses, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillates and consolidates. Wait for overseas disturbance information in the short - term [26]. - **Urea**: There is still an incremental production capacity, and the futures price is under pressure in the short - term. It is in a state of high - inventory suppression and coal - cost support, and pay attention to the implementation of export quotas and coal - price trends [26]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate declines, and plastic oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the production pressure is large due to the increase in production capacity [28]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is still limited, and PP oscillates weakly. The inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and pay attention to the change and sustainability of maintenance [29]. - **PL**: The inventory needs time to be digested, and PL oscillates weakly. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm weakens, and the trading range changes little [30]. - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses, and PVC oscillates weakly. The macro - level disturbance fades, and the fundamentals are under pressure [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.27 with a change of - 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 28 with a change of - 8 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Various varieties show different basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 43 with a change of 7, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Different inter - variety spreads also have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 136 with a change of - 47 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only lists the names of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring data. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 12, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2258.82 (+0.40%), the commodity 20 index is 2563.42 (+0.48%), the industrial products index is 2223.46 (+0.58%), and the PPI commodity index is 1344.72 (+0.44%) [280]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 12, 2025, has a current value of 1169.87, with a daily increase of 1.34%, a 5 - day increase of 0.97%, a 1 - month increase of 4.26%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.73% [281].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. The first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region led to the withdrawal of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, and Brent crude fell to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and was expected to do the same in December. Since September, OPEC+ net crude oil exports increased significantly, and Russian crude oil exports also rose. Global floating storage of crude oil increased substantially. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased, and production rose while the number of drilling rigs decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the fall of diesel cracking. Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From October 10 to 16, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $58.90 to $57.46, a decrease of $0.81; Brent crude oil price decreased from $62.73 to $61.06, a decline of $0.85; Oman crude oil price decreased from $62.55 to $62.10 (data on October 16 is missing); SC crude oil price increased by $0.10; domestic gasoline price dropped by $50, and domestic diesel price decreased by $28. Other related products also showed different price changes [3] 3.2 Daily News - Affected by the weakening of Brent crude oil and firm freight rates, the price of Russian Urals crude oil fell below the EU price cap of $47.60 per barrel for the first time. Deutsche Bank believes that the UK economy is losing momentum. The US Treasury Secretary hopes that Japan will stop importing Russian energy. Indian refiners expect a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports. Trump said that Modi promised that India would stop buying Russian oil, but it would be a process [3][4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending October 10, US crude oil exports increased by 876,000 barrels per day to 4.466 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 700 barrels to 13.636 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.5 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.8%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.5% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 400,000 barrels to 408 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 878,000 barrels per day to 5.255 million barrels per day. US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels [4] 3.4 Weekly View - Due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and the trade war, oil prices declined. Crude oil supply continued to increase, and OPEC planned to increase production. Global floating storage of crude oil increased, and refinery profits declined. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. There is an oversupply of crude oil, and the absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]

Core Viewpoint - Major commodity traders indicate that signs of an oil surplus are finally emerging, which could lead to lower oil prices. Brent crude oil prices have dropped by 11% since the end of last month due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other countries, leading to a bearish outlook for the U.S. oil market next year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a surplus of approximately 4 million barrels per day by 2026, an increase of 18% from previous predictions [1]. - Traders from Gunvor Group, Vitol Group, and Trafigura Group expect oil prices to decline in the short term before recovering next year [1]. - The influx of oil into the market is attributed to steady increases in OPEC production and slight increases from non-OPEC countries like Guyana, Norway, and Brazil [3]. Group 2: Price Predictions - Vitol Group predicts that the average oil price next year will be around $60 per barrel, while Gunvor anticipates a drop followed by a recovery to $62 per barrel [2][3]. - Trafigura expects prices to fall to around $50 per barrel by the end of the year before rising to approximately $60 per barrel next year [3]. - Despite these predictions, the decline is not expected to be catastrophic, but it represents a 14% decrease compared to the average price from 2025 to date, which is disappointing for oil-dependent companies [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market situation shows an influx of oil without a corresponding increase in demand, compounded by escalating trade tensions [4]. - There are concerns that the market may be overestimating the production capabilities of Venezuela and Iran, both under sanctions, while global refineries are operating at full capacity to meet demand [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined as the first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region was reached, leading to the unwinding of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. On Friday, Trump reignited the trade war, which hit the U.S. stock market at night, worsening the macro - sentiment. Brent crude fell to $62 per barrel, with a single - day decline of over 4%. [5] - Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the market expected a further increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. Since September, OPEC+ crude net exports have increased significantly month - on - month, and Russian crude exports have also increased. [5] - Recently, global floating storage of crude oil has increased significantly. The U.S. EIA commercial crude inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels in the week of October 3, U.S. production increased again, the number of drilling rigs decreased (-4), and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the fall of diesel cracking spreads. [5] - Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume operations, and global gasoline supply will recover. The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran, affecting Rizhao Port and local refineries. The impact on refinery raw material supply needs to be evaluated, and the fourth - quarter operating rate of local refineries is slightly lowered. [5] - In the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of crude oil, and there are signs of the conversion of floating storage inventory to OECD inventory. In 2026, the surplus is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. The oversupply pattern of crude oil remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Negotiations on the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza have started. The key points of the U.S. government's "20 - point plan" include the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip and the disarmament of Hamas. However, Hamas insists on Israel ending the occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state as a precondition for complete disarmament, and the Israeli government has not clearly committed to the complete withdrawal of the army from the Gaza Strip. [3] - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports have reached a 28 - month high. In the four weeks up to October 12, the four - week average of Russia's port crude oil exports was 3.74 million barrels per day, the highest since June 2023. Due to increased production and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, some crude oil has been diverted to export terminals. [4] - TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said that if the oil price falls to $60 per barrel, non - OPEC producers will start to cut production. It is expected that from mid - 2026, non - OPEC supply will decline significantly and hardly grow, and OPEC will regain control of the market. [4] Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of October 3, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 161,000 barrels per day to 3.59 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 124,000 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day. [4] - The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.89%. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 285,000 barrels to 407 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.07%. [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.897 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.68%. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.403 million barrels per day, an increase of 570,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. [4] - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased, diesel production increased, gasoline inventory increased, and diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month. [5] Weekly View - This week, oil prices dropped due to the cease - fire in Gaza and the deterioration of the macro - environment. Brent crude fell sharply. [5] - Crude oil supply continued to increase, with OPEC's planned production increases and rising Russian exports. Global floating storage and U.S. commercial crude inventory increased. [5] - Global refinery profits declined, and the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume operations next week, increasing gasoline supply. [5] - U.S. sanctions on Iran may affect refinery raw material supply, and the fourth - quarter operating rate of local refineries is slightly lowered. [5] - Crude oil is expected to be in surplus in the fourth quarter of this year and 2026, and the absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. [5]