Core Insights - The national carbon market in China experienced increased trading activity in April, with daily average trading volume of carbon allowances (CEA) reaching 233,100 tons, a nearly 50% increase from March's 158,800 tons [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notification on April 23 regarding the management of key emission units in the carbon market, which aims to enhance market expectations and promote green and low-carbon transformation in key industries [1][2] Group 1 - The trading activity in the national carbon market improved in April, with over 75% of trading days seeing volumes above 100,000 tons [1] - The notification requires that key emission units in the power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, with annual direct emissions of 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent, be included in the key emission unit directory [2] - The average closing price of CEA in April was 82.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.42% from March's average closing price of 87.90 yuan/ton [2] Group 2 - The research center forecasts that carbon market prices will continue to decline in May, with expected buy and sell prices of 78.37 yuan/ton and 82.66 yuan/ton, respectively [2] - The buy price index is projected to decrease by 7.70%, while the sell price index is expected to drop by 7.32% [2] - The notification aims to avoid duplicate management of greenhouse gas emissions by ensuring that key emission units included in the national carbon market do not participate in local carbon markets [2]

"虽受清明假期效应影响，但4月全国碳市场交易活跃度和稳定性均有所提升，3/4以上交易日的成交量 都在10万吨量能水平之上。"研究中心表示。 研究中心预计，5月份全国碳市场价格仍将走低。该中心公布的2025年5月复旦碳价指数显示，2025年5 月CEA买入价格预期为78.37元/吨，卖出价格预期为82.66元/吨，中间价为80.52元/吨；买入价格指数为 195.92，下跌7.70%；卖出价格指数为186.51，下跌7.32%；中间价格指数为190.97，下跌7.51%。 中化新网讯 受碳市场行业扩容消息提振，全国碳排放权交易市场4月份交易活跃度提升。复旦大学可持 续发展研究中心（以下简称"研究中心"）4月29日发布的数据显示，4月份全国碳市场交易升温，该月碳 配额（CEA）日均成交量为23.31万吨，较3月增幅接近50%。 但在活跃度提升的同时，全国碳市场价格依然持续走低。根据研究中心统计，4月全国碳市场CEA日均 收盘价为82.26元/吨，相较于3月的日均收盘价87.90元/吨下跌6.42%，且呈波动下降态势。 据了解，4月23日生态环境部印发《关于做好2025年全国碳排放权交易市场有关工作的通知》（以下 ...

欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第74期) 发布日期:2025-05-07 欧盟或于年底禁止俄现货天然气购买,TTF大涨带动EUA向上突破 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格67.88欧元/吨(1.86%)， 投标覆盖比1.67; 行情 2、二级:EUA期货结算价69.27欧元/吨(2.67%),成交2.72万手(0.69) 策略 短期震荡偏强 利多:(1)欧盟委员会通过逐步淘汰俄罗斯能源进口的路线图,将于6月提出措施,到 2025年底禁止现货天然气购买,到2027年底禁止所有剩余的LTC进口,TTF大涨:②欧 核心 洲中部气温低于李节平均水平,且可再生能源发电低于正常水平,或将增加履约实体 逻辑 对EUA的需求。 40 20 07-01 10-01 01-01 04-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货持仓量(万手) 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 持仓量 成交量 增减 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-06 涨跌幅 增减 32.76 69. 27 2.67% 2.72 0. 69 0. 00 67. ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China experienced increased trading activity in April, driven by news of industry expansion, with daily average trading volume of carbon allowances (CEA) reaching 233,100 tons, a nearly 50% increase from March's 158,800 tons [1][2] - Despite the rise in trading activity, carbon prices continued to decline, with the average closing price for CEA in April at 82.26 yuan per ton, down 6.42% from March's 87.90 yuan per ton [2] Group 1 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notification on April 23 regarding the management of the national carbon market, outlining key tasks and deadlines for major emitting sectors including power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting [1][2] - The notification mandates that units with annual direct emissions of 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent must be included in the key emissions unit directory, which will prevent overlapping management with local carbon markets [2] Group 2 - The research center forecasts that carbon prices in the national market will continue to decline in May, with expected buying price at 78.37 yuan per ton and selling price at 82.66 yuan per ton, indicating a downward trend in market expectations [2] - The indices for buying and selling prices are projected to decrease by 7.70% and 7.32% respectively, reflecting a broader trend of declining carbon prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As the May Day holiday approaches, EUA continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile within the range of €60 - 68, and the medium - term trend is expected to be strong [1]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting EUA. Positive factors include Trump signing an executive order to ease the impact of automobile tariffs, a decline in wind speed in the European continent suppressing wind power output, and Putin insisting on including the four eastern Ukrainian states in the armistice agreement. Negative factors include higher - than - normal temperatures in Europe and high solar power generation suppressing the remaining load [1]. - The EU will implement ETS2 in 2027 (covering the building and transportation sectors), and the first batch of EUA2 futures contracts will be launched for trading on May 6, 2025 [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Auction**: The auction price is 63.55 euros/ton (-1.01%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.45 [1]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures closing price is 64.85 euros/ton (-0.70%), with a trading volume of 24,900 lots (an increase of 0.14) [1]. - **Futures and Spot**: On April 29, 2025, the futures settlement price was 64.85 euros/ton (-0.70%), the trading volume was 24,900 lots (an increase of 0.14), the spot settlement price was 63.82 euros/ton (-0.72%), and the spot trading volume was 71 lots [3]. Strategies - Short - term: Volatile within the range of €60 - 68; Medium - term: Strong [1]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for May 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) at 78.37 CNY/ton and 82.66 CNY/ton respectively, with a midpoint of 80.52 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index decreased by 7.70%, the sell price index decreased by 7.32%, and the midpoint price index decreased by 7.51% [1] Group 2 - The research center provided price expectations for green certificates (GEC) for 2024 and 2025, with the price for centralized projects in May 2025 expected to be 5.20 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The price for distributed projects in May 2025 is expected to be 4.87 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation, it is expected to be 4.48 CNY/unit, indicating an overall increase in green certificate prices [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration announced the launch of the green certificate cancellation function, enhancing the transparency and regulation of the green power consumption management system [3] - In April, the average closing price of CEA was 82.26 CNY/ton, down 6.42% from March, while the average daily trading volume of carbon allowances increased significantly to 23.31 million tons, nearly doubling from March [3]

市场活跃度攀升,综合价格即将跌破80元 全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第60期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-04-18 今日 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口略有下调,但对供需平衡, 影响有限;扩固方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格短期支 撑位76元/吨附近。 3关注2024年度配额预分配期限前后（4月20日）的成交活跃度：强制流通配额耗尽节 点延后,强势上涨动能或出现在25Q2及以后。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废；2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 策略 建议缺口企业在76至80元/吨区间分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.5°0.6亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足,2025年市场抛压将小于2024年四季度。 核心 逻辑 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - CEA23 shows weak and stable operation, with no transactions for quotas of other years; the listed trading volume of CEA is about 100,000 tons, and there are no large - volume transactions; the listed trading volume of CCER is 0.01 million tons, with an average transaction price of 93.8 yuan/ton (-0.07%) [3] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices in the range of 76 - 80 yuan/ton [4] - In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises, with less market selling pressure than in Q4 2024 [4] - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the national carbon market gap is slightly reduced, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the short - term price support level is around 76 yuan/ton [5] - Pay attention to the trading activity around the pre - allocation deadline of the 2024 annual quota (April 20); the depletion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and strong upward momentum may appear in Q2 2025 and later [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: CEA23 runs weakly and stably, with no transactions for quotas of other years; the listed trading volume is about 100,000 tons, and there are no large - volume transactions [3] - CCER: The listed trading volume is 0.01 million tons, with an average transaction price of 93.8 yuan/ton (-0.07%) [3] - Carbon quota prices: The closing prices of carbon quotas 19 - 20, 21, 22, and 23 are 83.50, 80.44, 88.00, and 82.06 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and - 0.77% [7] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices in the range of 76 - 80 yuan/ton [4] Core Logic - In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises, with less market selling pressure than in Q4 2024 [4] - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the national carbon market gap is slightly reduced, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the short - term price support level is around 76 yuan/ton [5] - Pay attention to the trading activity around the pre - allocation deadline of the 2024 annual quota (April 20); the depletion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and strong upward momentum may appear in Q2 2025 and later [5]

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第52期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-04-09 全国温室气体自愿减排交易系统实时行情上线 今日 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.5~0.6亿吨市场需 求或由盈余企业自愿卖出来满足,2025年市场抛压将小于2024年四季度。 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口略有下调,但对供 核心 需平衡影响有限;扩围方案带来短期情绪利空，或加速强制流通配额释放，综 逻辑 合价格短期支撑位86元附近,跌破后下方看76元/吨。 (3)关注2024年度配额预分配期限前后（4月14日）的成交活跃度；强制流通配 额耗尽节点延后,强势上涨动能或出现在25Q2及以后。 1、新行业配额方案超预期宽松;2、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;3、企业 风险 不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现;4、企业2023年度、2024年度未足额履 约;5、未考虑新纳入行业配额结转。 图表 1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...