Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of precious metals, specifically gold, silver, and platinum, highlighting market trends and price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Precious Metals Overview - Gold prices are influenced by various economic factors, including inflation and interest rates, which are critical for investors [1]. - Silver and platinum also show significant price fluctuations, often correlated with industrial demand and investment trends [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Recent data indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty [1]. - The performance of silver and platinum is closely monitored, with analysts noting their potential for growth based on market conditions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, highlighting the impact of U.S. economic indicators and investment strategies from notable investors like Warren Buffett, indicating a potential bullish phase for gold despite recent price corrections [2][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. PPI data exceeded market expectations, contributing to a softening of gold prices, while the U.S. clarified that there would be no tariffs on Swiss-processed precious metals [2][23]. - The increase in short positions in precious metals by U.S. futures funds reflects a bearish sentiment in the market [2][25]. - The article notes that despite a decline in gold prices, many financial leaders are entering the gold market, suggesting a consolidation phase in a broader bull market for gold [2][25]. Group 2: Fund Positioning and Market Data - As of August 12, managed net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 4.7% to 480 tons, marking a continuous net long position for 97 weeks [3][7]. - Silver's managed net long positions fell to 4,394 tons, the lowest in 16 weeks, with a year-to-date price increase of 31.2% [3][7]. - Platinum and palladium markets showed mixed signals, with platinum's net long positions slightly increasing, while palladium remained in a prolonged net short position for 136 weeks [8][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Warren Buffett's recent investments in homebuilders suggest a belief in declining U.S. interest rates, which could influence the precious metals market positively [2][25]. - The article raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential actions if inflation pressures rise again after interest rate cuts, indicating a critical period ahead for monetary policy [26]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has seen a significant decline, suggesting that mining stocks may lag behind gold prices, which could be a warning sign for investors [20][18].

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Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.84% [1] - The North Star 50 Index saw a significant increase of 6.79% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,091 billion yuan, an increase of 5,363 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Over 4,000 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] - The film and media sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Huayi Brothers and CMC Inc. hitting the daily limit [1] - The liquid cooling server sector also performed well, with Shuguang Digital Technology hitting the daily limit of 30% and companies like High Cloud Technology and Qiangrui Technology rising by 20% [1] - Several stocks, including Chuanrun Co. and Jintian Co., also reached the daily limit [1] - The Huawei HiSilicon concept stocks gained traction, with Jinsai Technology hitting the daily limit of 30% and Shenzhen Huaqiang and Haoshanghao also reaching the daily limit [1] - The precious metals sector experienced a pullback, with Shandong Gold and Zhaojin Mining both declining by over 1% [1]

1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The platinum - group metals market was previously trading on US tariff risks, with CME platinum and palladium inventories increasing significantly. As tariff trading receded and US inflation data exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts declined, putting pressure on platinum - group metal prices. - Before the Fed's monetary policy shows a clear dovish turn, platinum - group metal prices are expected to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now and wait for Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If there is a clear dovish stance, one can consider buying on dips at support levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 8.21%; the open interest of the main contract increased 3.23%; the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 6.87%; the net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 503 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 60 lots; the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.14% [9]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 18.36%; the open interest of the main contract decreased 14.53%; the NYMEX palladium inventory increased 13.28%; the net short position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2219 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 482 lots; the palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.23% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The NYMEX platinum price is approaching the upward trend line, and attention should be paid to its reaction around the trend line. The NYMEX palladium price is at the trend - line support, and whether it can stabilize and rebound around the trend line needs attention [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The NYMEX platinum main contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1179 lots to 81726 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 2.52% to 323.8 yuan per gram, and the internal - external price difference rebounded. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 14.65%, and the overseas spot shortage eased. As of August 12, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 503 lots to 12689 lots [21][27][31][36]. - **Palladium Price**: The NYMEX palladium main contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1148 lots to 20191 lots. As of August 12, the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 4896 lots [24][39]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of August 15, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.6 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased 1007 kg to 18.1 tons, with registered inventory decreasing and unregistered inventory increasing [50][57]. - **Palladium**: As of August 15, the total palladium ETF holdings were 13.21 tons. The CME palladium inventory increased 464.7 kg to 3963.9 kg, with both registered and unregistered inventories increasing [53][62]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 platinum mines is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease compared to 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [68]. - **Palladium Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 palladium mines is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease compared to 2024, showing a slight contraction [71]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May; palladium imports in June were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77]. - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are provided, but no specific supply - demand conclusions are drawn from these data in the report. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum supply - demand balance in 2025F shows a deficit of 14.29 tons, while the global palladium supply - demand balance in 2025 shows a surplus of 3.50 tons [88][89]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [93][94][96][98]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [100][102][104][105]. - **London Spot - NYMEX Spreads**: Data on the spreads between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107].

Summary of J.P. Morgan Commodity Market Positioning & Flows Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global commodities market, specifically analyzing market positioning and flows as of August 11, 2025. Key Points and Arguments Market Positioning - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest increased by 0.7% week-over-week (WOW) to approximately $1.49 trillion, which is still at the lower end of the 2025 range but up 10% year-to-date (YTD) as of August 8 [3][9][10]. - Contract-based inflows returned to 10-year average levels at $14.6 billion WOW, primarily driven by gold markets, which saw inflows of $12.4 billion WOW due to US tariff risks [3][4]. Tariff Risks and Economic Events - The US-China tariff truce is expected to end on August 12, with President Trump likely to extend it for another 90 days. This uncertainty is influencing market dynamics [3]. - A scheduled summit between President Trump and President Putin regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine is also noted, which may impact commodity prices [3]. Investor Positioning - The net investor position across global commodity futures markets decreased by 6.1% WOW, reaching $128 billion as of August 5 [3][15]. - Notional investor positioning in base metals decreased by 26% WOW, while energy markets saw a 50% decrease in positioning [3][15]. Precious Metals - The estimated value of open interest in precious metals surged by $17 billion WOW to $263 billion, driven by significant inflows into gold markets [3][27]. - Managed Money net length in COMEX Gold futures increased by 19.7k contracts to approximately 154k contracts net long, indicating strong bullish sentiment [4][17]. Energy Markets - The estimated value of open interest in energy markets declined by $19.5 billion WOW to $622 billion, marking a return to ten-week lows amid price weakness [3][22]. - Contract-based flows were muted, with outflows from refined product markets offset by inflows to natural gas markets [3]. Agricultural Markets - The estimated open interest value in agricultural markets increased by 1.7% WOW to $326 billion, driven by net contract-based inflows of $2 billion WOW [3][29]. - Trade uncertainty is highlighted, particularly regarding US soybean orders from China, which remain at zero for the new crop [3]. Price Momentum - Price momentum across commodities was mixed, with increases in most metals and agricultural markets, while energy prices declined [3][50]. - Specific trading signals indicate a positive momentum for COMEX Gold and Silver, while NYMEX Palladium has turned negative [3][50]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of geopolitical events on commodity markets, particularly the influence of tariffs and international relations on investor sentiment and positioning [3]. - The dynamics of supply and demand in various sectors, such as energy and agriculture, are crucial for understanding future price movements and investment opportunities [3][4][5]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state of the commodities market, highlighting key trends, risks, and potential investment opportunities.

Group 1 - Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE: FNV) utilizes a royalty and streaming model, allowing it to benefit from rising gold prices without direct exposure to mining risks [1] - The company's unique position in the precious metals sector distinguishes it from traditional mining companies [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics related to Franco-Nevada Corporation [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices due to political statements and potential tariffs, highlighting the impact of U.S. monetary policy and the shift towards digital currencies as a means to sustain financial prosperity [2][25][26]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Price Movements - Trump's announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss gold bars led to a nearly $100 increase in gold prices, but this was later clarified as a misunderstanding, stabilizing the market [2][25]. - Gold prices experienced volatility with a significant drop followed by a rebound, reflecting market uncertainty regarding geopolitical events and U.S. policy [2][25]. - The gold price has accumulated a 28.9% increase year-to-date as of August 5, while silver prices have risen by 31.0% in the same period [7][10]. Group 2: Fund Positions and Market Sentiment - Managed positions in COMEX gold saw a net long position increase of 13.3% to 503 tons, marking the highest level since September 2019 [3][7]. - In contrast, COMEX silver experienced a 29.8% decrease in net long positions, dropping to 4,762 tons, the lowest in 11 weeks [3][7]. - The article notes that palladium has been in a net short position for 135 weeks, indicating a bearish sentiment in that market [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The article highlights the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts, with a significant probability of maintaining rates in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [23]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio fell by 9.3%, indicating a potential divergence between gold prices and mining stocks, which may signal caution for investors [21]. - The gold-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, was reported at 88.673, reflecting ongoing high risk awareness in the market [22]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Implications - The article suggests that U.S. policy changes may be aimed at diverting investment from commodities to digital currencies, which are closely tied to the dollar [26]. - The geopolitical landscape is expected to become more complex, particularly with Trump's focus on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which may have broader implications for global markets [25][26].

Group 1 - In July, U.S. inflation indicators showed a gradual recovery, leading to a slight increase in international gold prices, with COMEX gold rising by 0.11% [1] - Gold-related ETFs experienced gains, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) up by 0.16% and Gold Stock ETF (159562) rising by 0.91%. Notably, Jiangxi Copper's stock surged over 5%, while Huayu Mining, Zijin Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals also saw significant increases [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) rose by 1.03%, with holdings like Bowei Alloys hitting the daily limit, and other stocks such as Huayu Mining, Huafeng Aluminum, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals showing strong performance [1] Group 2 - Gold mining companies are reporting strong performance in their 2025 semi-annual reports, with notable growth in companies like Western Gold, Hunan Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, attributed to high gold prices [1] - Despite increasing expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, analysts from Galaxy Futures suggest that the gold market lacks sufficient upward momentum, indicating potential for further adjustments and a high-level range-bound trading pattern in the future [1] - As market consensus on long-term gold price increases solidifies, the investment logic for gold stocks is shifting from short-term production growth to a greater focus on company reserves, highlighting the value of companies with larger reserves [1]

Market Impact - The president's statement clarified confusion regarding potential tariffs on gold bars, particularly those coming from Switzerland [2] - The initial confusion stemmed from Customs and Border Protection documents that suggested gold bars might be tariffed [2] - The market was surprised because gold bars are traditionally considered currency and not subject to export tariffs [3] Policy & Regulation - The president stated that "gold will not be tariffed" [2][5] - An executive order is expected to clarify the point that gold will not be tariffed [4] - The White House plans to instruct Customs and Border Protection to reverse the decree indicating potential tariffs on gold [5]