（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 安粮期货表示，尽管短期内可能因技术性超买和流动性波动面临回调压力，但在全球主要经济体财政扩 张难以逆转、美元信用体系持续承压，以及全球央行战略性增持黄金的趋势下，黄金的长期配置价值凸 显。 华源证券认为，高铜价短期对需求有所抑制，电解铜杆周度开工率48.83%，环比减少11.90%。中长期 看，铜矿资本开支不足，供给端扰动频发，铜矿供需格局或将由紧平衡转向短缺，同时铜冶炼在反内卷 背景下利润周期有望见底，叠加美联储进入降息周期，铜价有望突破上行。 Wind数据显示，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跟踪的细分有色指数金铜铝（申万三级）含量达61.4%， 在所有的有色相关指数（有色矿业、工业有色、国证有色、中证有色、申万有色）中含量最高，该ETF 近10日累计"吸金"54.1亿元。 1月8日，COMEX黄金期货、期铜价格午后跳水，COMEX黄金期货价格跌至4426美元/盎司，较日内高 点回撤超50美元/盎司，有色黄金相关产品纷纷回调，截至发稿，黄金ETF华夏（518850）跌0.4%，黄 金股ETF（159562）跌0.86%；有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌幅扩大至2.39 ...

2026年1月6日，受美国推动格陵兰岛方案及美联储官员释放鸽派言论影响，金价震荡走强，现货黄金价 格重回4500美元上方。截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.22%报4505.70美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏 （518850）涨0.93%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨2.8%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨4.16%。 消息面上，近日，美联储理事米兰表示，预计后续经济数据将继续支持"降息是合适的"这一政策方向， 他认为美联储今年应降息超过100个基点。 相关分析指出，全球对美元体系的担忧加速非美元支付布局，美联储降息预期提升贵金属投资吸引力。 ...

相关分析指出，本次回调或是金价此前快速上涨后存在技术性调整需求，临近元旦假期，交易所加强风 控措施促使部分获利盘了结；同时白银等其他贵金属价格波动也对金价产生连带压力。尽管短期波动可 能加剧，但市场分析认为金价在每盎司4350至4400美元区间具备较强支撑，回调空间或有限。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 12月31日，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中跳水，目前交投于4322美元附近，黄金有色相关产品表现分化， 截至14:05，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌1.49%，黄金股ETF（159562）跌0.13%，有色金属ETF基金 （516650）涨0.96%。 在新年假期临近之际，整体市场交投仍偏清淡。今日公布的美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示， FOMC 在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重，市场预计1月降息概率约15%；CME上调贵金属期货保证 金，短期可能抑制投机性资金情绪。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced significant volatility on December 29, with a peak of $4581 per ounce followed by a sharp decline to $4316, reflecting a drop of over $265 during the trading session [1] Market Performance - COMEX gold futures closed down 4.45% at $4350.2 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.87%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 2.27%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) dropped by 1.96% [1] Market Influences - The increase in margin requirements by CME Group for gold, silver, and lithium futures contributed to market pressure, potentially triggering short-term adjustments [1] - The meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, which both parties described as having made "great progress," may have influenced market sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent price correction in gold may be a technical adjustment following a rapid increase, compounded by the upcoming New Year holiday and stricter risk control measures from exchanges [1] - Despite short-term volatility, market analysis indicates strong support for gold prices in the range of $4350 to $4400 per ounce, suggesting limited downside potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are maintaining high volatility, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4542 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of nearly 0.9% [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs are showing strong performance, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) up by 0.79% and a year-to-date increase of over 62% as of December 25 [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (159562) has risen by 1.97%, while the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) has increased by 4.25% [1] Group 2: Economic and Policy Influences - U.S. President Trump stated that anyone who disagrees with him will never become the Federal Reserve Chairman, emphasizing his desire for the new chairman to lower interest rates in a favorable market environment [1] - According to a report from CITIC Securities, gold prices are expected to benefit from the liquidity easing atmosphere due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1] Group 3: Future Projections - The inflow into global gold ETFs is anticipated to be a significant buying force for gold, with ongoing risk aversion supporting gold prices [1] - Long-term trends such as de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases are expected to provide a solid foundation for rising gold prices, with projections indicating that gold could reach $5000 per ounce in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a decline, with various gold-related products also retreating, while the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to fundamental factors such as global monetary credit restructuring and rising U.S. debt risks [1][2] - As of December 24, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) has seen a year-to-date increase of 63.24%, with its latest scale reaching 11.532 billion yuan, growing over 1 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, representing a growth of more than 6.9 times [1] - Experts suggest that the strong performance of gold is driven by geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and expectations of Federal Reserve easing, which may limit the downside for gold prices [2] Group 2 - The management and custody fees for the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) and gold stock ETF (159562) are at a competitive rate of 0.2%, which is among the lowest in similar products [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been rising, with COMEX gold futures reaching a peak of $4,555 before a slight pullback, indicating strong market interest in gold assets [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of December 24, gold prices have shown volatility, with the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) narrowing its gains to 0.42%, while the colored metal ETF (516650) and gold stock ETF (159562) turned negative by 0.05% and 0.39% respectively [1] - In December, international gold prices have been on an upward trend, with 15 out of 17 trading days seeing net inflows into the Huaxia gold ETF, accumulating a total of 987 million yuan [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) has attracted over 233 million yuan in investments over the past 14 trading days, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Funi Futures analysis indicates that while U.S. non-farm employment data has slightly improved, the unemployment rate exceeded expectations, and CPI was lower than anticipated, leading to increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with a neutral stance on future guidance, suggesting a marginal increase in liquidity expectations, which is likely to support precious metals and colored metal sectors in the short term [1] Group 3: Cost Efficiency of ETFs - The management and custody fees for Huaxia gold ETF (518850) and gold stock ETF (159562) are combined at 0.2%, the lowest among similar products, facilitating lower-cost participation for investors in the gold market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold futures prices, driven by escalating tensions in Venezuela and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 23, gold futures prices surged past the $4,500 mark, reaching a peak of $4,530, marking a new historical high [1] - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures increased by 1.02% to $4,515 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.41% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) gained 1.15% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent week saw heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, which enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. has intensified pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government by blocking oil tankers, contributing to the geopolitical uncertainty [1] - Traders are betting on the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts, creating a low-interest-rate environment that supports precious metal prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a consensus among institutions that gold prices are expected to continue rising, despite differences in views on the extent, timing, and target price [1] - Structural demand from global central banks is viewed as a crucial and solid support for gold prices [1] - Cyclical benefits are anticipated as the market expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [1] - Demand for gold is also driven by geopolitical uncertainties, concerns over the dollar's credibility, and the need for diversified asset allocation [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged on December 22, with COMEX gold futures exceeding $4,430, marking a daily increase of over 1% and setting a new historical high [1] - Gold-related ETFs saw significant gains, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rising by 1.51% and a year-to-date increase of over 60%, while Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.45% with a cumulative year-to-date rise of 92.46% [1] - The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in 2026 has intensified due to weak U.S. employment data and slowing inflation, alongside increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2 - ANZ Bank analysts predict that deteriorating global economic growth prospects, escalating trade tensions, and potential damage to the Federal Reserve's independence could lead gold prices to possibly exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [1] - Gold stocks have shown a higher elasticity compared to gold prices, with a beta of approximately 1.07 over the past three years, indicating a "gold price amplifier" effect [1] - The combination of heightened risk aversion and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts is expected to sustain a strong performance in gold stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise on December 19, with fluctuations in the precious metals sector and mixed performance among gold-related ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices rose collectively, while the precious metals sector showed volatility [1] - Gold ETF products exhibited varied performance, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.13% and Gold Stock ETF (159562) down 0.69%, whereas Non-ferrous Metal ETF (516650) increased by 0.81% [1] - Notable stock performances included Yun Aluminum Co., which surged over 5%, along with gains in Shenhuo Co., Western Superconducting Technologies, and Tianshan Aluminum [1] Group 2: Silver Supply and Demand - Global mined silver supply is projected to be approximately 813 million ounces in 2025, remaining roughly flat year-on-year, with a slight increase of about 1% in recycled supply [1] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to be a long-term support factor for silver demand, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an addition of 4,000 GW of solar capacity from 2024 to 2030 [1] - This indicates that by 2030, solar energy alone could drive an annual increase in silver demand of nearly 150 million ounces, representing a 13% rise from the physical demand of 1.169 billion ounces in 2024 [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - According to Ruida Futures, with silver's cumulative increase nearing 130% for the year, investor sensitivity to news may rise significantly in the short term [1] - Any data or policy that falls short of expectations could amplify the risk of a correction in the precious metals market [1] - However, due to persistently low silver inventories and resilient industrial demand, silver prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend [1]