高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降 温，为政策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。 "明年的风险倾向于进行更多次降息，因为核心通 胀方面的消息一直有利，而就业市场的恶化……可能难以通过我们预期的温和的周期性增长加速来遏 制。"高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联邦基金利率降至3.00%– 3.25%的区间。 该行的基准观点是，美联储将越来越相信，通胀放缓的趋势将持续下去，货币政策无需 继续维持在明显具有限制性的水平。 11月25日，金价上摸4152美元后回落， 黄金期货价格目前交投于4140美元附近，黄金相关产品涨幅收 窄，截至14点41分，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨1.68%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨1.86%，有色金属ETF 基金（516650）涨2.04%。 相关分析指出，得益于持续强劲的投资需求，黄金市场当前正试探每盎司4150美元附近的阻力关口，对 金价起到较强支撑，避免了剧烈下滑。相比之下，虽然黄金价格较上个月创下的约4360美元每盎司的历 史高点回落了大约6%，但这种回调显得相对温和，并未引发恐慌 ...

Core Points - The Industrial Metal R Index (480043) closed at 3146.58 points, up 1.82%, with a trading volume of 41.581 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.85% [1] - Among the index constituents, 30 stocks rose, led by Zhongjin Gold with an 8.76% increase, while 20 stocks fell, with Haomei New Materials leading the decline at 3.49% [1] Summary by Category Index Performance - The Industrial Metal R Index reported a gain of 1.82% on the day, closing at 3146.58 points [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 41.581 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.85% [1] Constituents Performance - Top performing stocks included: - Zhongjin Gold: +8.76% - Xiyuan Mining: +2.96% - China Aluminum: +2.14% [1] - Notable declines included: - Haomei New Materials: -3.49% - Dongyangguang: -1.66% [1] Market Capitalization and Weighting - The top ten constituents by weight and their market capitalizations are as follows: - Rongyang Aluminum: 12.30% weight, market cap of 339.742 billion yuan - China Aluminum: 8.17% weight, market cap of 188.369 billion yuan - Yun Aluminum: 4.90% weight, market cap of 83.647 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the index constituents totaled 461 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 227 million yuan [1] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Zhongjin Gold: 17.2 million yuan net inflow from main funds - China Aluminum: 81.544 million yuan net inflow from main funds [2]

证券之星消息，11月19日，深证国企股东回报R（470064）指数报收于2242.6点，跌0.16%，成交197.28亿元，换手率0.87%。当日该指数成份股 中，上涨的有11家，山金国际以5.08%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有36家，天健集团以6.77%的跌幅领跌。 资金流向方面，深证国企股东回报R（470064）指数成份股当日主力资金净流出合计14.88亿元，游资资金净流入合计1.81亿元，散户资金净流入 合计13.07亿元。成份股资金流向详情见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 | 游资净流入(元) | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002128 电投能源 | | 5997.69万 | 9.63% | -3467.61万 | -5.57% | -2530.08万 | -4.06% | | 000630 | 铜陵有色 | 2338.48万 | 3.17% | -1364.89万 | -1.85% | -973.59万 | -1.32% | | 000728 ...

| 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 668109 | 紫等处,不 | 2.78% | 16.32% | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | -0.15% | 6.60% | | 603993 | 洛阳辑业 | 1.61% | 5.96% | | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 3.23% | 5.22% | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 1.83% | 3.85% | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 6.04% | 3.72% | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 1.95% | 3.53% | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 2.20% | 3.44% | | 6009888 | 赤峰黄金 | 1.16% | 2.67% | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | 6.91% | 2.66% | 统计显示，有色金属ETF基金近3天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"2.34亿元，截至11月18日，产品最 新规模19.72亿元。 截至11月18日，有色金属ETF基金近2年净值上涨83.42%，指数股票型基金排名42/2406，居 ...

Core Insights - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, while gold prices continued to fluctuate, leading to declines in gold-related products [3] - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) saw a net inflow of funds for 12 consecutive days, totaling 595 million yuan [3] - As of November 14, the Huaxia Gold ETF reached a record high of 986 million shares since its inception [3] Performance Metrics - Over the past two years, the net value of the Huaxia Gold ETF has increased by 99.30% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 11.49%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 6 months and a maximum gain of 16.34% [3] - The ratio of up months to down months stands at 42 to 24, with an average return of 3.37% during up months and an annual profit percentage of 75.00% [3] - The probability of monthly profitability is 63.46%, and the historical probability of profit over a 3-year holding period is 99.53% [3] Fee Structure - The management fee for the Huaxia Gold ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it one of the lowest fee structures available [3]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight pullback in afternoon trading, with copper prices strengthening during the session [1] - Citigroup's copper consumption tracking indicated a mild year-on-year growth of 1% in global copper consumption for September [1] - Citigroup forecasts a continued weak year-on-year growth in copper consumption for Q4 2023, citing a stronger base in 2024 and sluggish manufacturing activity as limiting factors [1] Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) saw its gains narrow to 4.06%, while the gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.52%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.07% [1] - Long-term support for copper prices is attributed to increased market liquidity due to expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce more detailed measures to boost consumption and expand openness, indicating potential further stimulation of domestic copper consumption [1] Future Outlook - Citigroup anticipates a recovery in copper demand by 2026, supported by more accommodative fiscal policies in the U.S. and a globally looser monetary environment [1]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 1.4% [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $4,155 before slightly retreating, closing around $4,135 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.40%, while the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) fell by 1.22%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.65% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate passed a funding and extension bill with a vote of 60 in favor and 40 against, which will end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1] - Following the end of the shutdown, the Federal Reserve officials have released dovish statements, increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 64.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 35.9% [1] Group 3 - Bloomberg analysis suggests that the end of the government shutdown will lead to the release of delayed economic data, which is expected to show a deteriorating economic outlook [1] - This anticipated economic decline may prompt the Federal Reserve to further ease monetary policy, which would benefit non-yielding assets like gold [1]

金价高位回调目前在4100美元附近震荡，产品持续获资金布局，统计显示，黄金ETF华夏（518850）连 续8个交易日持续获资金净申购，累计净申购达3.92亿元；截至11月10日，产品最新份额9.64亿份，最新 规模86.72亿元，较年初规模增长超5倍。（魏昭宇） 中证网讯 11月11日，受隔夜金价大涨影响，金价延续强势，期货黄金价格突破4150美元/盎司后陷入震 荡，截至14:13，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨1.43%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌1.16%，黄金股ETF （159562）跌0.61%。 有机构分析称，美国政府结束停摆后，将公布长期滞后的经济数据，为经济状况提供至关重要的"体温 检测"，预计数据显示经济前景将恶化，引发经济担忧，这反过来又会促使美联储进一步放松货币政 策，这将利好无息资产黄金。市场普遍认为，美联储可能在今年12月降息 25 个基点。CME FedWatch 工具显示，当前市场已计入约 67% 的降息概率，并进一步将明年1月累计降息可能性提高至约 80%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a rise in interest rate cut expectations, which in turn supports the upward trend in gold prices [1][2] - Gold ETFs have shown mixed performance, with 华夏 (518850) rising by 1.53% and recording three consecutive gains, while 黄金股ETF (159562) fell by 0.42% during intraday trading [1] - The comments from Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, suggest that the U.S. economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, and inflation appears to be under control, prompting a call for an open attitude towards further rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to normalize the release of government data, which may support further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, contributing to an increase in gold futures [2] - Analysts from 中信建投证券 express a bullish long-term outlook on gold due to weak economic indicators, increased market volatility, and geopolitical threats [2] - 南华期货 highlights that central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand, driven by expectations of monetary easing and temporary safe-haven trading, will continue to push precious metal prices higher in the medium to long term [2]

Core Points - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2264.6 points, down 1.32% with a trading volume of 27.876 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.09% [1] - Among the index constituents, 14 stocks rose while 34 stocks fell, with Guangdong Expressway A leading the gainers at 3.31% and Shanjin International leading the decliners at 3.9% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index are as follows: - BOE Technology Group (sz000725) has a weight of 9.31%, latest price of 4.00 yuan, down 1.48%, and a market cap of 149.656 billion yuan [1] - Hikvision (sz002415) has a weight of 7.97%, latest price of 31.79 yuan, down 2.48%, and a market cap of 291.351 billion yuan [1] - Wuliangye Yibin (sz000858) has a weight of 7.71%, latest price of 117.16 yuan, down 1.53%, and a market cap of 454.769 billion yuan [1] - Luzhou Laojiao (sz000568) has a weight of 6.59%, latest price of 133.10 yuan, down 1.44%, and a market cap of 195.917 billion yuan [1] - XCMG Machinery (sz000425) has a weight of 5.75%, latest price of 10.75 yuan, up 1.13%, and a market cap of 126.344 billion yuan [1] - Changan Automobile (sz000625) has a weight of 3.88%, latest price of 12.29 yuan, down 1.05%, and a market cap of 121.844 billion yuan [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan (sz000166) has a weight of 3.84%, latest price of 5.46 yuan, down 0.18%, and a market cap of 136.718 billion yuan [1] - Yunnan Aluminum (sz000807) has a weight of 3.81%, latest price of 23.67 yuan, down 2.55%, and a market cap of 82.087 billion yuan [1] - Yanghe Brewery (sz002304) has a weight of 3.37%, latest price of 70.56 yuan, down 0.48%, and a market cap of 106.295 billion yuan [1] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (sz000630) has a weight of 3.18%, latest price of 5.04 yuan, down 2.70%, and a market cap of 67.584 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The index constituents experienced a net outflow of 2.414 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.911 billion yuan [1] - The detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - XCMG Machinery had a net inflow of 64.0524 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Guangdong Expressway A had a net inflow of 21.2567 million yuan from retail investors [2] - Other stocks like Huazhu Group and New Media Group also showed varying net inflows and outflows [2]