（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 安粮期货表示，尽管短期内可能因技术性超买和流动性波动面临回调压力，但在全球主要经济体财政扩 张难以逆转、美元信用体系持续承压，以及全球央行战略性增持黄金的趋势下，黄金的长期配置价值凸 显。 华源证券认为，高铜价短期对需求有所抑制，电解铜杆周度开工率48.83%，环比减少11.90%。中长期 看，铜矿资本开支不足，供给端扰动频发，铜矿供需格局或将由紧平衡转向短缺，同时铜冶炼在反内卷 背景下利润周期有望见底，叠加美联储进入降息周期，铜价有望突破上行。 Wind数据显示，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跟踪的细分有色指数金铜铝（申万三级）含量达61.4%， 在所有的有色相关指数（有色矿业、工业有色、国证有色、中证有色、申万有色）中含量最高，该ETF 近10日累计"吸金"54.1亿元。 1月8日，COMEX黄金期货、期铜价格午后跳水，COMEX黄金期货价格跌至4426美元/盎司，较日内高 点回撤超50美元/盎司，有色黄金相关产品纷纷回调，截至发稿，黄金ETF华夏（518850）跌0.4%，黄 金股ETF（159562）跌0.86%；有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌幅扩大至2.39 ...

2026年1月6日，受美国推动格陵兰岛方案及美联储官员释放鸽派言论影响，金价震荡走强，现货黄金价 格重回4500美元上方。截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.22%报4505.70美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏 （518850）涨0.93%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨2.8%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨4.16%。 消息面上，近日，美联储理事米兰表示，预计后续经济数据将继续支持"降息是合适的"这一政策方向， 他认为美联储今年应降息超过100个基点。 相关分析指出，全球对美元体系的担忧加速非美元支付布局，美联储降息预期提升贵金属投资吸引力。 ...

即将过去的2025年，可谓中国资产的大年。 春夏秋冬，四季皆有不同领涨主题和行情亮点，先是科技重估"春天的故事"，再到红利板块"盛夏的果实"，继 而是金秋时节成长与周期"稻花香里说丰年"，以及年底起伏行情中的"价值锚点"。 这一年，春晚上穿着东北花棉袄的宇树机器人，灵巧的手指转起的不仅仅是那块手绢，更是机器人ETF （562500）超200亿元的规模增长；这一年，AI叙事不断强化，涨幅最大的却是通信板块，5G通信ETF （515050）涨幅接近翻倍；这一年，黄金的信仰比黄金更"贵"，金价摸高4500美元，年内涨幅超60%，黄金 ETF华夏（518850）规模冲破百亿；这一年，中国ETF出海越来越频繁，在巴西、泰国等多国交易所敲响了上 市钟声，标志着创业板ETF华夏（159957）、科创50ETF（588000）等中国核心科技资产成为"全球标配"…… 这一年，伴随着波澜壮阔的行情，ETF突破6万亿元大关，华夏基金稳居"ETF一哥"宝座，无论是逼近万亿的权 益ETF总规模，还是3000多亿元的规模正增长，以及日均成交额，规模和流动性都是行业第一。 在保持国内领先的同时，华夏基金ETF业务国际排名亦稳步提升。根据晨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced significant volatility on December 29, with a peak of $4581 per ounce followed by a sharp decline to $4316, reflecting a drop of over $265 during the trading session [1] Market Performance - COMEX gold futures closed down 4.45% at $4350.2 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.87%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 2.27%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) dropped by 1.96% [1] Market Influences - The increase in margin requirements by CME Group for gold, silver, and lithium futures contributed to market pressure, potentially triggering short-term adjustments [1] - The meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, which both parties described as having made "great progress," may have influenced market sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent price correction in gold may be a technical adjustment following a rapid increase, compounded by the upcoming New Year holiday and stricter risk control measures from exchanges [1] - Despite short-term volatility, market analysis indicates strong support for gold prices in the range of $4350 to $4400 per ounce, suggesting limited downside potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, has experienced a significant surge in 2023, with gold reaching a historic high of $4500 per ounce, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors [1]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been a key driver, with expectations of a shift from tightening to easing, culminating in a rate cut in September 2023, which ignited the gold rally [2]. - Geopolitical and economic risks have increased, with ongoing tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. economic pressures, leading investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with annual acquisitions doubling from 508 tons (2013-2021) to 1058 tons (2022-2024), indicating strong demand for gold [2]. - The acceleration of "de-dollarization" has heightened the demand for gold, as the U.S. dollar index has fallen nearly 10% this year, raising concerns about the dollar's creditworthiness [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investment sentiment towards gold has surged, with global gold ETFs seeing a net inflow of approximately $40 billion in the first half of 2025, and domestic gold ETF assets rising from 73 billion yuan to 236.1 billion yuan, a 223% increase [3]. - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, predict continued bullish trends for gold, with potential prices reaching $4900 per ounce by 2026, indicating a possible upside of 0.3% to 11.5% from current levels [3]. - The World Gold Council suggests that if geopolitical and economic conditions remain unfavorable, gold prices are likely to continue rising in the coming year [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are maintaining high volatility, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4542 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of nearly 0.9% [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs are showing strong performance, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) up by 0.79% and a year-to-date increase of over 62% as of December 25 [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (159562) has risen by 1.97%, while the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) has increased by 4.25% [1] Group 2: Economic and Policy Influences - U.S. President Trump stated that anyone who disagrees with him will never become the Federal Reserve Chairman, emphasizing his desire for the new chairman to lower interest rates in a favorable market environment [1] - According to a report from CITIC Securities, gold prices are expected to benefit from the liquidity easing atmosphere due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1] Group 3: Future Projections - The inflow into global gold ETFs is anticipated to be a significant buying force for gold, with ongoing risk aversion supporting gold prices [1] - Long-term trends such as de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases are expected to provide a solid foundation for rising gold prices, with projections indicating that gold could reach $5000 per ounce in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a decline, with various gold-related products also retreating, while the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to fundamental factors such as global monetary credit restructuring and rising U.S. debt risks [1][2] - As of December 24, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) has seen a year-to-date increase of 63.24%, with its latest scale reaching 11.532 billion yuan, growing over 1 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, representing a growth of more than 6.9 times [1] - Experts suggest that the strong performance of gold is driven by geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and expectations of Federal Reserve easing, which may limit the downside for gold prices [2] Group 2 - The management and custody fees for the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) and gold stock ETF (159562) are at a competitive rate of 0.2%, which is among the lowest in similar products [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been rising, with COMEX gold futures reaching a peak of $4,555 before a slight pullback, indicating strong market interest in gold assets [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of December 24, gold prices have shown volatility, with the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) narrowing its gains to 0.42%, while the colored metal ETF (516650) and gold stock ETF (159562) turned negative by 0.05% and 0.39% respectively [1] - In December, international gold prices have been on an upward trend, with 15 out of 17 trading days seeing net inflows into the Huaxia gold ETF, accumulating a total of 987 million yuan [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) has attracted over 233 million yuan in investments over the past 14 trading days, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Funi Futures analysis indicates that while U.S. non-farm employment data has slightly improved, the unemployment rate exceeded expectations, and CPI was lower than anticipated, leading to increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with a neutral stance on future guidance, suggesting a marginal increase in liquidity expectations, which is likely to support precious metals and colored metal sectors in the short term [1] Group 3: Cost Efficiency of ETFs - The management and custody fees for Huaxia gold ETF (518850) and gold stock ETF (159562) are combined at 0.2%, the lowest among similar products, facilitating lower-cost participation for investors in the gold market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold futures prices, driven by escalating tensions in Venezuela and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 23, gold futures prices surged past the $4,500 mark, reaching a peak of $4,530, marking a new historical high [1] - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures increased by 1.02% to $4,515 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.41% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) gained 1.15% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent week saw heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, which enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. has intensified pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government by blocking oil tankers, contributing to the geopolitical uncertainty [1] - Traders are betting on the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts, creating a low-interest-rate environment that supports precious metal prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a consensus among institutions that gold prices are expected to continue rising, despite differences in views on the extent, timing, and target price [1] - Structural demand from global central banks is viewed as a crucial and solid support for gold prices [1] - Cyclical benefits are anticipated as the market expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [1] - Demand for gold is also driven by geopolitical uncertainties, concerns over the dollar's credibility, and the need for diversified asset allocation [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged on December 22, with COMEX gold futures exceeding $4,430, marking a daily increase of over 1% and setting a new historical high [1] - Gold-related ETFs saw significant gains, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rising by 1.51% and a year-to-date increase of over 60%, while Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.45% with a cumulative year-to-date rise of 92.46% [1] - The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in 2026 has intensified due to weak U.S. employment data and slowing inflation, alongside increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2 - ANZ Bank analysts predict that deteriorating global economic growth prospects, escalating trade tensions, and potential damage to the Federal Reserve's independence could lead gold prices to possibly exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [1] - Gold stocks have shown a higher elasticity compared to gold prices, with a beta of approximately 1.07 over the past three years, indicating a "gold price amplifier" effect [1] - The combination of heightened risk aversion and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts is expected to sustain a strong performance in gold stocks [1]