高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降 温，为政策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。 "明年的风险倾向于进行更多次降息，因为核心通 胀方面的消息一直有利，而就业市场的恶化……可能难以通过我们预期的温和的周期性增长加速来遏 制。"高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联邦基金利率降至3.00%– 3.25%的区间。 该行的基准观点是，美联储将越来越相信，通胀放缓的趋势将持续下去，货币政策无需 继续维持在明显具有限制性的水平。 11月25日，金价上摸4152美元后回落， 黄金期货价格目前交投于4140美元附近，黄金相关产品涨幅收 窄，截至14点41分，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨1.68%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨1.86%，有色金属ETF 基金（516650）涨2.04%。 相关分析指出，得益于持续强劲的投资需求，黄金市场当前正试探每盎司4150美元附近的阻力关口，对 金价起到较强支撑，避免了剧烈下滑。相比之下，虽然黄金价格较上个月创下的约4360美元每盎司的历 史高点回落了大约6%，但这种回调显得相对温和，并未引发恐慌 ...

| 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 668109 | 紫等处,不 | 2.78% | 16.32% | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | -0.15% | 6.60% | | 603993 | 洛阳辑业 | 1.61% | 5.96% | | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 3.23% | 5.22% | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 1.83% | 3.85% | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 6.04% | 3.72% | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 1.95% | 3.53% | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 2.20% | 3.44% | | 6009888 | 赤峰黄金 | 1.16% | 2.67% | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | 6.91% | 2.66% | 统计显示，有色金属ETF基金近3天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"2.34亿元，截至11月18日，产品最 新规模19.72亿元。 截至11月18日，有色金属ETF基金近2年净值上涨83.42%，指数股票型基金排名42/2406，居 ...

Core Insights - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, while gold prices continued to fluctuate, leading to declines in gold-related products [3] - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) saw a net inflow of funds for 12 consecutive days, totaling 595 million yuan [3] - As of November 14, the Huaxia Gold ETF reached a record high of 986 million shares since its inception [3] Performance Metrics - Over the past two years, the net value of the Huaxia Gold ETF has increased by 99.30% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 11.49%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 6 months and a maximum gain of 16.34% [3] - The ratio of up months to down months stands at 42 to 24, with an average return of 3.37% during up months and an annual profit percentage of 75.00% [3] - The probability of monthly profitability is 63.46%, and the historical probability of profit over a 3-year holding period is 99.53% [3] Fee Structure - The management fee for the Huaxia Gold ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it one of the lowest fee structures available [3]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant performance and growth of the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850), which has seen substantial inflows and returns in recent months. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of November 13, 2025, the Huaxia Gold ETF has increased by over 54% year-to-date [3] - The fund has experienced continuous net inflows for 11 days, totaling 539 million yuan, reaching a new high in shares at 980 million and a total scale of 9.047 billion yuan [3] - Over the past two years, the net value of the Huaxia Gold ETF has risen by 102.41%, ranking first among comparable funds and in the top 2.22% of precious metal funds [3] Group 2: Historical Performance - The highest monthly return since inception was 11.49%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 6 months and a maximum increase of 16.34% [3] - The fund has a gain-loss month ratio of 42:24, with an average return of 3.37% in up months and an annual profit percentage of 75.00% [3] - The probability of profit over a 3-year holding period is 99.52% [3] Group 3: Fee Structure - The management fee for the Huaxia Gold ETF is 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [3]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight pullback in afternoon trading, with copper prices strengthening during the session [1] - Citigroup's copper consumption tracking indicated a mild year-on-year growth of 1% in global copper consumption for September [1] - Citigroup forecasts a continued weak year-on-year growth in copper consumption for Q4 2023, citing a stronger base in 2024 and sluggish manufacturing activity as limiting factors [1] Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) saw its gains narrow to 4.06%, while the gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.52%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.07% [1] - Long-term support for copper prices is attributed to increased market liquidity due to expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce more detailed measures to boost consumption and expand openness, indicating potential further stimulation of domestic copper consumption [1] Future Outlook - Citigroup anticipates a recovery in copper demand by 2026, supported by more accommodative fiscal policies in the U.S. and a globally looser monetary environment [1]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 1.4% [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $4,155 before slightly retreating, closing around $4,135 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.40%, while the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) fell by 1.22%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.65% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate passed a funding and extension bill with a vote of 60 in favor and 40 against, which will end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1] - Following the end of the shutdown, the Federal Reserve officials have released dovish statements, increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 64.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 35.9% [1] Group 3 - Bloomberg analysis suggests that the end of the government shutdown will lead to the release of delayed economic data, which is expected to show a deteriorating economic outlook [1] - This anticipated economic decline may prompt the Federal Reserve to further ease monetary policy, which would benefit non-yielding assets like gold [1]

金价高位回调目前在4100美元附近震荡，产品持续获资金布局，统计显示，黄金ETF华夏（518850）连 续8个交易日持续获资金净申购，累计净申购达3.92亿元；截至11月10日，产品最新份额9.64亿份，最新 规模86.72亿元，较年初规模增长超5倍。（魏昭宇） 中证网讯 11月11日，受隔夜金价大涨影响，金价延续强势，期货黄金价格突破4150美元/盎司后陷入震 荡，截至14:13，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨1.43%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌1.16%，黄金股ETF （159562）跌0.61%。 有机构分析称，美国政府结束停摆后，将公布长期滞后的经济数据，为经济状况提供至关重要的"体温 检测"，预计数据显示经济前景将恶化，引发经济担忧，这反过来又会促使美联储进一步放松货币政 策，这将利好无息资产黄金。市场普遍认为，美联储可能在今年12月降息 25 个基点。CME FedWatch 工具显示，当前市场已计入约 67% 的降息概率，并进一步将明年1月累计降息可能性提高至约 80%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a rise in interest rate cut expectations, which in turn supports the upward trend in gold prices [1][2] - Gold ETFs have shown mixed performance, with 华夏 (518850) rising by 1.53% and recording three consecutive gains, while 黄金股ETF (159562) fell by 0.42% during intraday trading [1] - The comments from Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, suggest that the U.S. economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, and inflation appears to be under control, prompting a call for an open attitude towards further rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to normalize the release of government data, which may support further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, contributing to an increase in gold futures [2] - Analysts from 中信建投证券 express a bullish long-term outlook on gold due to weak economic indicators, increased market volatility, and geopolitical threats [2] - 南华期货 highlights that central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand, driven by expectations of monetary easing and temporary safe-haven trading, will continue to push precious metal prices higher in the medium to long term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, influenced by falling COMEX gold futures prices and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a pullback in gold-related ETFs and stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 4, A-share indices collectively fell, with COMEX gold futures dropping to a low of $3,975 [1] - By the close of the Asian market, gold futures were trading around $3,989 per ounce [1] - Gold ETFs such as Huaxia (518850) fell by 0.62%, the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) dropped by 3.3%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 3.49% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Multiple Federal Reserve officials discussed interest rate cuts, but the clarity on a potential December cut remains uncertain due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting data releases [1] - Inflation data continues to be a focal point for several officials, with the likelihood of a December rate cut now reduced to 67.3% according to CME's FedWatch tool [1] Group 3: Gold Demand Outlook - UBS analysts suggest that gold investment demand could further increase, with central bank gold purchases remaining high [1] - Global gold demand is projected to reach approximately 4,850 metric tons this year, the highest since 2011 [1] - If private investors follow the central bank trend and diversify their holdings from U.S. Treasuries to gold, spot prices may rise further [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices has positively impacted gold-related ETFs, with significant movements observed in various funds following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and end balance sheet reduction, creating a favorable environment for precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 9:41 AM, the 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.31%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.17%. In contrast, the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) saw a decline of 0.34% [1] - The liquidity easing expectations have contributed to a rebound in precious metals, despite potential technical pullback pressures after surpassing the $3,700 mark [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Wang Yanqing, Chief Analyst of Precious Metals at CITIC Futures, noted that the current environment indicates a third round of a bull market for gold, with central bank gold purchases reshaping the long-term price center [1] - The report from the Gold Research Institute of Jinyafo suggests that while there may be short-term technical pressures, the overall trend remains bullish for gold [1] Group 3: Cost Efficiency - The management and custody fees for 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) and Gold Stock ETF (159562) are combined at 0.2%, which is among the lowest in similar products, enabling investors to participate in the gold market at a lower cost [1]