2025.08. 01 本文字数：889，阅读时长大约2分钟 8月1日，市场早盘冲高回落，三大指数小幅下跌。截至午间收盘，上证指数报3566.55点，跌 0.19%，深成指报10992.87点，跌0.15%，创业板指报2324.5点，跌0.16%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3566.55 | 10992.87 | 1424.46 | | -6.66 -0.19% -16.90 -0.15% | | +1.58 +0.11% | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1039.02 | 2324.50 | 5562.10 | | -8.85 -0.84% -3.82 -0.16% -5.00 -0.09% | | | 盘面上热点较为杂乱，个股涨多跌少，全市场超2900家个股上涨。 深圳德讯证券顾问有限公司投资顾问刘奎军认为，A股指数呈现月线三连阳的强势特征，积累较大的 获利盘，8月指数持续上行面临获利盘回吐以及3600点上方前期高点的技术性压力位，8月震荡难 免，宜逢低关注热点板块的轮动机会。 国金证券投顾邱于认为，本周三周四A股主要 ...

本文源自：金融界 耀才证券金融集团有限公司主要提供全面而专业的经纪服务，包括各类股票、期货、新股认购以及股票 融资等。公司以其稳定的在线交易平台、低佣金、高融资比率和低融资利息赢得了客户的青睐，目前拥 有近300名员工，14个营业点，客户资产最高接近600亿，客户户口总数近41万。 8月1日，耀才证券金融(01428)盘中下跌8.13%，截至11:57，报13.56元/股，成交3.05亿元。 截至2024年年报，耀才证券金融营业总收入12.55亿元、净利润5.7亿元。 作者：行情君 ...

| 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国企指数 | Valla ---------- | 8882.04 | -0.01% | | 800100 | | | | | 恒生科技指数 | 1 | 5446.61 | -0.12% | | 800700 | | | | | 恒生指数 | Varia | 24727.78 | -0.18% | | 800000 | | | | 物流股涨幅居前，中通快递涨超8%。交通运输部7月31日召开2025年半年工作会，分析上半年交通运输 形势，部署下半年重点工作。会议强调，要加快推动国家综合立体交通网建设，加快推进重大项目建 设，用好用足各类资金支持政策，服务国家重大战略实施，谋划一批重大项目。要统筹谋划"十五五"交 通运输发展，高质量编制"十五五"规划，深入研究重大问题，大力推进交通强国建设试点。有分析指， 近期物流行业迎来多项政策利好和市场机遇，主要集中在新能源物流车推广、智慧交通建设、跨境物流 调整、老旧车辆淘汰补贴等方面。 8月1日消息，港股三大指数集体下跌。截至午间收盘，恒生指数跌0.18%，报24727. ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, impacting market sentiment and leading to declines in major stock indices across Asia-Pacific [1] - The South Korean stock market has been particularly affected, with the composite index dropping nearly 4% due to both the tariff impacts and the government's plan to increase capital gains tax [7] - Japan's officials are closely monitoring the effects of U.S. tariffs on their economy, with expectations of potential pressure on exports and overall economic performance [4] Group 2 - The South Korean government has proposed a comprehensive tax reform that includes raising corporate tax rates and expanding the capital gains tax, which is expected to increase annual tax revenue significantly [7] - Despite the negative market reactions, some analysts believe that recent trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea may mitigate the impact of the tariffs, suggesting that the tariff levels could be renegotiated in the future [6] - The Japanese central bank is maintaining its current interest rates but is open to future increases, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions influenced by U.S. trade policies [4]

创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），当日涨跌幅可达20%。该指数从中国 深圳证券交易所创业板市场中选取市值较大、流动性较好的50家企业作为指数样本，覆盖信息技术、医 疗保健等多个创新性较强的行业，以反映创业板市场具有成长风格与科技创新特点的上市公司证券整体 表现。 民生证券指出，证监会年中工作会议强调激发多层次市场活力，将推出深化创业板改革的一揽子举措， 包括在创业板正式启用第三套标准以支持优质未盈利创新企业上市。科创板与创业板新规的稳步落地实 施，有助于提升资本市场包容性，更好满足成长初期企业的融资需求。在此过程中，券商投行业务收入 有望修复，尤其在科创领域深耕布局且储备项目丰富的头部券商或更加受益。资本市场回稳向好态势 下，交投活跃度持续提升，券商业绩修复趋势有望延续。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

【#腾讯减持中金公司# ，两大资管巨头刚增持】对于中金公司，科技巨头腾讯与国内外两大资管巨头 出现分歧。近日，港交所披露，腾讯出手减持中金公司H股496万股，卖出均价21.16港元/股，套现约 1.05亿港元。值得一提的是，全球资管巨头贝莱德和易方达基金分别在7月22日和7月25日对中金公司进 行了增持，增持后贝莱德持有中金公司H股比例升至5.01%，易方达基金持有中金公司H股比例升至 5.13%。（每日经济新闻，泽塔）#贝莱德增持中金公司H股# ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 07 31 年 月 日 固定收益定期 缓慢的修复——8 月信用策略 上周债市出现大幅调整，跌幅排序：二永债>普信债>利率债。7/18-7/25， 债市超预期回调，3Y 以上利率债普遍上行 7-9bp，信用债下跌幅度大于利率 债，城投债和产业债下跌幅度多在 8-12bp，中长端跌幅大于普信债，3Y 及 以上二级资本债上行 12-15bp。 造成市场下跌的主要原因是：权益和商品上涨，资金面偏紧，赎回压力加大。 首先，4 月以来，权益触底反弹持续走强，近期上证综指触及 3600 点，叠加 反内卷政策出台，以及预期的发酵，商品价格大幅上涨，市场风险偏好提升， 对债市产生资金分流，压制债市表现。其次，7/18-7/24，央行公开市场操作 持续净回笼，导致市场资金面收紧，并且造成对后续资金面的担忧。此外， 在债市的连续调整中，理财可能采预防性赎回债基，导致基金抛售债券，从 而加剧债基赎回-债券调整的负反馈。 市场调整中，信用债 ETF 规模下降，科创债 ETF 增速放缓，部分样本券超 跌。630 过后，信用债 ETF 增速明显放缓。近期伴随债市调整，部分 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 2025 年 08 月 01 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060004 何申昊（研究员） 证书编号：S0790122080094 蒋 韬（研究员） 证书编号：S0790123070037 相关研究报告 《资产配置月报（2025 年 8 月）—金融 工程定期》-2025.7.31 《因子切割论与深度学习的结合应用— 市场微观结构研究系列（28）》-2025.7.26 《主动权益增持通信、非银，债券型基 金规模大幅回升—公募基金 2025 年二 季报全扫描》-2025.7.21 开源交易行为因子绩效月报（2025 年 ...

晨会纪要（2025/08/01） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.01） 宏观及策略研究 受季节性等因素影响，制造业景气有所回落——2025 年 7 月 PMI 数据点评 政策强调落实落细，增量政策适时加力——中共中央政治局会议点评 市场短期出现整固，中期存在向上机会——A 股市场投资策略周报 行业研究 天津铸就都市型奶业产业，海河引领全国花色奶风潮——天津乳制品行业专 题报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/08/01） 宏观及策略研究 受季节性等因素影响，制造业景气有所回落——2025 年 7 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、事件： 2025 年 7 月 31 日，统计局公布了 PM ...