Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, with increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - end warehouse receipt pressure is relatively large, and the market is starting to follow the delivery logic. There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is approaching delivery, causing trading to return to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price is forecasted to be between 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high glass inventory, sell FG2509 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs. For low glass inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1000 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high soda ash inventory, sell SA2509 futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For low soda ash inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the glass 05 contract was at 1295 (down 0.23% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1102 (down 1.34%), and the 01 contract was at 1224 (unchanged). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 193 (up 12), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 122 (down 15), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 71 (up 3) [6]. - **Glass Spot**: The average price of glass in the Shahe area on August 1, 2025, was 1248, down 19.4 from the previous day. Prices in most regions decreased slightly [7]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was at 1379 (up 0.07% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1256 (up 0.72%), and the 01 contract was at 1333 (up 0.6%). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 123 (down 8), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 77 (up 1), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 46 (up 7) [8]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged on August 1, 2025. The heavy - alkali price in Shahe was 1246, down 1 from the previous day [9].

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 2025/7/24 | | 2025/7/30 | | 2025/7/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/7/24 | 2025/7/30 | | 2025/7/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 | 1250.0 5mm大 板 | 1301.0 | 1284.0 | 34.0 | -17.0 | FG09合约 | 1307.0 | 1191.0 | 1117.0 | -190.0 | -74.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1258.0 5mm大板 | 1233.0 | 1233.0 | -25.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1402.0 | 1320.0 | 1224.0 | -178.0 | -96.0 | | 沙河5mm大 | 1241.0 板低价 | 1233.0 ...

近期，玻璃、纯碱期货价格波动加剧。在"反内卷"政策的影响下，玻璃、纯碱产业正经历着深刻的市场 变革。这轮由政策预期主导的市场波动，既让部分企业暂时缓解了经营压力，也暴露了行业供需格局中 的深层次问题，产业链各环节都在预期与现实中寻找新的平衡。针对供需调整、产业驱动因素、企业应 对策略等话题，期货日报记者通过对湖北、河北、山东等地的产业企业的电话调研，深入剖析"反内 卷"背景下玻璃、纯碱行业的真实生态与发展趋势。 把握"反内卷"政策机遇 从情绪驱动到现实检验 近期，在玻璃、纯碱市场，政策与供需预期的博弈，成为市场走势的核心驱动因素。从产能淘汰政策的 推进，到下游需求结构的动态变化，再到短期追涨行为与长期行业整合趋势的交织，市场参与者的情绪 在乐观与谨慎之间频繁切换。对玻璃、纯碱产业企业而言，如何在价格起伏中坚守理性，在诸多不确定 性里锚定经营决策的确定性，已成为当下亟待解决的问题。 "'反内卷'政策的核心，是解决违背经济运行规律的低质量、同质化竞争问题。"中信寰球商贸有限公司 玻璃、纯碱期现业务总经理范国圣表示，这一政策信号的释放，迅速在玻璃、纯碱市场掀起波澜。 2025年6月，玻璃与纯碱价格处于历史低位，玻璃 ...

近期，玻璃、纯碱期货价格波动加剧。在"反内卷"政策的影响下，玻璃、纯碱产业正经历着深刻的市场 变革。这轮由政策预期主导的市场波动，既让部分企业暂时缓解了经营压力，也暴露了行业供需格局中 的深层次问题，产业链各环节都在预期与现实中寻找新的平衡。针对供需调整、产业驱动因素、企业应 对策略等话题，记者通过对湖北、河北、山东等地的产业企业的电话调研，深入剖析"反内卷"背景下玻 璃、纯碱行业的真实生态与发展趋势。 从情绪驱动到现实检验 近期，在玻璃、纯碱市场，政策与供需预期的博弈，成为市场走势的核心驱动因素。从产能淘汰政策的 推进，到下游需求结构的动态变化，再到短期追涨行为与长期行业整合趋势的交织，市场参与者的情绪 在乐观与谨慎之间频繁切换。对玻璃、纯碱产业企业而言，如何在价格起伏中坚守理性，在诸多不确定 性里锚定经营决策的确定性，已成为当下亟待解决的问题。 "'反内卷'政策的核心，是解决违背经济运行规律的低质量、同质化竞争问题。"中信寰球商贸有限公司 玻璃、纯碱期现业务总经理范国圣表示，这一政策信号的释放，迅速在玻璃、纯碱市场掀起波澜。 2025年6月，玻璃与纯碱价格处于历史低位，玻璃行业亏损面持续扩大。 "从往年玻 ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/31 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/30 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/23 | 2025/7/29 | | | | | 2025/7/23 | 2025/7/29 | | 2025/7/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1240.0 | 1301.0 | 1301.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1211.0 | 1188.0 | 1191.0 | -20.0 | 3.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1248.0 | 1280.0 | 1233.0 | -15.0 | -47.0 | FG01合约 | 1309.0 | 1313.0 | 1320.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant increase in soda ash spot prices has led to improved profitability for some production companies, although most remain in a loss position [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Downstream companies show low acceptance of the recent price increase, primarily focusing on depleting existing inventory with limited procurement intentions [1] - Supply expectations indicate a potential reduction in maintenance among companies in August, which may lead to a recovery in operational load for soda ash producers; however, if anti-involution policies are not implemented, supply is likely to remain ample in August [1] - Demand has seen a notable increase in pending orders due to significant price hikes and speculative trading activity, although profit improvements in float and photovoltaic glass remain limited, weakening the marginal support for soda ash demand [1] - The overall supply-demand balance suggests that the mid-term oversupply situation in the soda ash industry may not change, with ongoing supply pressure [1]

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/30 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/28 | | 2025/7/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/28 | | 2025/7/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1220.0 | 1301.0 | 1301.0 | 81.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1249.0 | 1223.0 | 1188.0 | -61.0 | -35.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1220.0 | 1280.0 | 1280.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1342.0 | 1300.0 | 1313.0 | -29.0 | 13.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板 ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/21 | | 2025/7/25 | | 2025/7/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/7/21 | 2025/7/25 | | 2025/7/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1280.0 | 1430.0 | 1300.0 | 20.0 | -130.0 | SA05合 约 | 1390.0 | 1539.0 | 1417.0 | 27.0 | -122.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1200.0 | 1340.0 | 1280.0 | 80.0 | -60.0 | SA01合约 | 1354.0 | 1516.0 | 1387.0 | 33.0 | -129.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1400.0 | 1450.0 | 1450.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1295.0 | 1440.0 | 1316.0 | 21.0 | -1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, demand will continue to decline, and prices will remain under pressure. It's recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract [2] - The probability of a correction in the glass market has increased. Although the fundamentals of glass have improved, the terminal demand has not improved. It's advisable to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1316 yuan/ton, down 124 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1223 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 soda ash traders was -290077, an increase of 8272; the net position of the top 20 glass traders was -176305, an increase of 8320 [2] - The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was -76 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan; the glass 9 - 1 contract spread was -64 yuan, an increase of 31 yuan [2] - The soda ash basis was -50 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan; the glass basis was -150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash was 1390 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the price of Central China heavy soda ash was 1325 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2] - The price of East China light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan; the price of Central China light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2] - The price of Shahe glass sheets was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets was 1230 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants was 83.02%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 75%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points [2] - The in - production capacity of glass was 15.89 million tons/year, an increase of 0.11 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines was 223, unchanged [2] - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 178.36 million tons, a decrease of 8.1 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises was 6189.6 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 304.3 million heavy boxes [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new construction area in the real estate industry was 30364.32 million square meters, an increase of 7180.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of completed area was 22566.61 million square meters, an increase of 4181.47 million square meters [2] Industry News - The State Council deployed measures to gradually implement free preschool education [2] - The CSRC aimed to consolidate the market's stable and positive trend and improve the market - stabilizing mechanism [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures [2] - The CSRC solicited public opinions on the revised "Corporate Governance Guidelines for Listed Companies" [2] - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 34365.0 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the stamp duty revenue was 1953 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%; the securities trading stamp duty was 785 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 54.1% [2]

【产业库存】本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6189.6万重箱，环比下降304.3万重箱或4.69%，同比减少7.74%，连 降5周创今年2月份以来新低，折库存天数26.6天，较上期下降1.3天，尤其库存前期累积明显的华中地区，降幅最为 明显，进一步提振市场情绪。 【成本利润】成本方面，石油焦制、煤炭制、天然气制玻璃成本分别为1052、1008、1438元/吨，环比变化分别为-1 、+4、-4元/吨；生产利润分别为53.4、128.9、-168.4元/吨，环比变化分别为+58.18、+7.4、+10.54元/吨。 玻璃：政策预期热度降温，价格波动放大 纯碱：交易所发布风险函，警惕价格回调 分析师：何慧 咨询账号：Z0011420 中辉期货研究院 2025.07.25 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 F03104066 李 倩 F03134406 玻璃：政策预期热度降温，价格波动放大 【供应端】本周浮法玻璃行业开工率为75%，周环比下降0.34个百分点；产能利用率为79.48%，周环比增加0.57%， 日产量为15.9万吨，周环比小幅增加0.73%；周产量110.81万 ...