Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. The short - term is expected to be mainly in a volatile trend. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [2][5]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2] - **Basis**: Hebei Shahe heavy - quality soda ash spot price is 1260 yuan/ton, SA2601 closing price is 1386 yuan/ton, basis is - 126 yuan, futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - **Inventory**: National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; neutral [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Soda ash fundamentals have strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive**: The peak summer maintenance period is coming, and production will decline [3] - **Negative**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5] 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1395 | 1280 | - 115 | | Current Value | 1386 | 1260 | - 126 | | Change Rate | - 0.65% | - 1.56% | 9.57% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe market is 1260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] 3.5 Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: North China ammonia - soda process profit is - 25.60 yuan/ton, East China co - production process profit is - 41 yuan/ton, and soda ash production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] - **开工率 and Production**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [21] 3.6 Demand in Fundamentals - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is stable [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Photovoltaic glass prices continue to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [33] 3.7 Inventory in Fundamentals National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, limited improvement in terminal demand, and inventory at a high level in the same period [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 2.18% to 1,214 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,200 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 65.85% to - 14 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The production profit of heavy soda ash was at the lowest level in the same period in history, with a profit of - 134.30 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 113.50 yuan/ton for the East China combined - soda process [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash was 708,900 tons, with heavy soda ash at 400,100 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were large - scale capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. The planned new capacity in 2025 was 7.5 billion tons, with an actual production of 1 billion tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 158,400 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 1.8634 million tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - **Negative factors**: High supply of soda ash, limited improvement in terminal demand, inventory at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory is at a high level in the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1241 yuan/ton, up 1.97% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis was - 41 yuan/ton, up 141.18% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1200 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method was - 113.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash was 70.89 tons, of which heavy soda ash was 40.01 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual planned production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.84 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery. The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [28][31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed the trends of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences in the soda ash industry, as well as the growth rates of capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, terminal demand improvement was limited, and inventory was at a high level in the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern had not been effectively improved [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the operating rate and production of soda ash enterprises continued to rise, and the market production - sales rate increased month - on - month. However, the inventory continued to accumulate. The current supply - demand pattern of soda ash is weak, with no improvement in downstream demand, continuous increases in supply and inventory, and a gradual decline in spot prices. The subsequent pattern of increasing supply and weak demand will continue to suppress market confidence. Although the short - term futures price rebounded at a low level due to macro - disturbances, the rebound momentum is insufficient under the weak reality. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, due to one production line being shut down for water discharge and one for hot repair, and one previously ignited production line starting to produce glass, the weekly melting volume increased slightly, and the manufacturer's inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Currently, glass supply fluctuates within a narrow range at a low level. Entering the off - season of demand, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and manufacturers' inventory remains high. Enterprises reduce prices to promote sales. Short - term demand is seasonally weak, and high inventory puts pressure on the market. The futures valuation is low and maintains a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the cold repair of production lines after losses deepen. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies Soda Ash - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [8]. - **Supply**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [8]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The current supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Glass - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [9]. - **Supply**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [9]. - **Profit**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: Currently, supply is at a low level with narrow fluctuations, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural alkali mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The product is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [11]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and additives, as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream products include float glass and other types. The downstream is mainly used in real estate (75%), automobiles (18%), and electronic appliances (7%) [12]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Glass**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1007, and the North China basis was 133 yuan/ton. The FG9 - 1 spread closed at - 58 yuan/ton [16][20]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 11573, and the North China basis was 227 yuan/ton. The SA9 - 1 spread closed at 11 yuan/ton [19][20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. There were different inventory changes in different regions [23]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [32]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Glass**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [36]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [45]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Glass**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased [52]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly oscillate at a low level. The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1212 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1252 yuan/ton, and the main basis was 40 yuan, with a basis increase of 48.15% compared to the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1252 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash was at a low level in the same period in history. The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda in East China was 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda in North China was - 10.10 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.76%, and the expected operating rate would stabilize and rebound. The weekly output of soda ash was 70.41 tons, with 38.22 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output had declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 107.66% [24]. - In terms of downstream demand, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.68 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline to 75.53%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production had rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production had stabilized [27][30]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 162.70 tons, including 83.70 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-21 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1310元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1280元/吨，基差为30元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存171.20万吨，较前一周增加0.63%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.5.6-5.9 上周纯碱期货震荡下行，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周下跌3.48%报1305元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1325元/吨，较前一周下跌0.38%。 供给方面，近期部分企业开始检修，后续仍有部分企业检修计划；上周生产利润均有所 回升，华东重碱联碱法利润195元/吨，华北地区重碱氨碱法利润-29.60元/吨；预计下周产 量 68万吨，开工 80%左右，整体供应呈现下降趋势。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求一 般，下游刚需补库，整体消费量波动不大，但下游企业对原材料的储备意向不高，基本随用 随采。截止5月8日，全国纯碱厂内库存170.13万吨，较前一周增加1.74%，库存仍处于历史 同期高位。综合来看，纯碱供 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-6 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：纯碱检修陆续复产，开工率回升，供给抬升；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量走稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1320元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1352元/吨，基差为-32元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存167.22万吨，较前一周减少1.11%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 2、风险点：下游浮法和光伏玻璃冷修不及预期，宏观利好超预期。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产 ...