证券研究报告 | 2025年06月06日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-05 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3384.09 | 10203.50 | 3877.55 | 11566.37 | 2875.21 | 996.40 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.23 | 0.58 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 1.08 | 1.04 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4982.41 | 7921.63 | 2317.49 | 2960.32 | 3700.15 | 216.30 | 晨会主题 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 固定收益周报:政府债务周度观察-本周特别国债发行 1760 亿 行业与公司 纺服行业专题:关税影响专题三：美国对等关税暂缓期，国际品牌表述与 供应链梳理 银行行业专题:稳定币步入大众视野——中国香港《稳定币条例》点评 建筑建材双周报（2025 年第 10 期）：长三角熟料价格推涨，化债进 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月05日 重点板块数据跟踪： 1）水泥：上周全国水泥价跌 0.8%，沪苏浙粤桂黔降 10-20 元/吨，云南 昆明涨 20 元/吨。5 月底需求略增，出货率升至 47.8%。需求偏弱致多 地价格续跌，但长三角熟料涨价，计划 6 月水泥涨价，鄂赣等地跟涨， 后期价格或企稳反弹。2）玻璃：上周国内浮法玻璃均价 1270.96 元/吨， 环比跌 0.58%，供应端新增产线加剧市场观望，需求受高温多雨抑制， 行业亏损扩大，短期价格或继续承压。光伏玻璃市场交投清淡，终端需 求疲软致组件开工率下滑，厂家库存累积，2.0mm/3.2mm 镀膜面板价格 分别跌至 13 元/㎡和 21 元/㎡，环比跌幅扩大。纯碱价格走弱使成本支 撑不足，利润空间进一步压缩，市场整体维持弱势运行态势。3）玻纤： 上周无碱粗纱市场延续跌势，2400tex 缠绕纱主流价 3500-3800 元/吨， 均价 3696.5 元/吨，周跌 0.62%，同比降 4.3%。北方低价成交增多，市 场灵活议价。电子纱 G75 报价 8800-9200 元/吨，电子布 3.8-4.4 元/米。 投资建议： 建材方面，国际贸易冲突加剧 ...

德国5月建筑业PMI 44.4，前值45.1。 ...

此外，买卖合同虽然约定"付款前需先开具发票"，但支付货款与开具发票是不同性质的合同义务，前者 属于主要义务，后者仅是附随义务，二者不具有对等关系。同时，民法典和批复的规定也明确支持卖方 的诉讼请求，A建设公司无权在B新材料公司已经依约履行主要义务的情况下，仍然以第三方未向其付 款为由拒绝支付货款。 最终，法院判决支持了某新材料公司要求某建设公司支付剩余货款的诉讼请求。宣判后，双方均未提起 上诉，现一审判决已经生效。 A建设公司庭上辩称，合同中两条"特别约定"：卖方依据买方认可的金额先开具增值税发票，卖方未提 供发票或发票不符合规范的，买方可以拒绝付款且不承担违约责任；买方应向卖方支付的所有合同款项 均需在本工程的发包方向买方支付相应款项后，方能支付给卖方。因发包方尚未付款，且B公司有部分 发票未开，故其拒付"于约有据"。 北京市西城区人民法院经审理认为，对于买卖合同约定A建设公司在收到发包方向其支付货款后方能向 B新材料公司支付的内容，自2024年8月27日起施行的《最高人民法院关于大型企业与中小企业约定以 第三方支付款项为付款前提条款效力问题的批复》(以下简称"批复")规定：大型企业在建设工程施工、 采购货 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [5][77]. Core Viewpoints - The price of cement clinker in the Yangtze River Delta has increased by 30 CNY/ton, with plans for a similar increase in cement prices in early June. This price hike is expected to stabilize market expectations and lead to price recovery in the following months [1][3]. - The issuance of special bonds reached 1.63 trillion CNY from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%, completing 37.1% of the annual quota. The issuance in May alone was 443.17 billion CNY, a month-on-month increase of 92.6% [1]. - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from domestic demand expansion policies amid escalating international trade conflicts, with limited further deterioration anticipated in the sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices fell by 0.8% last week, with regional variations showing declines of 10-20 CNY/ton in several areas, while prices in Kunming, Yunnan, increased by 20 CNY/ton. The average shipment rate rose to 47.8% due to slight demand increases [2][23]. - The Yangtze River Delta's clinker price increase may lead to a stabilization or slight rebound in cement prices in the near future [24]. Glass - The average price of domestic float glass was 1270.96 CNY/ton, down 0.58% from the previous period. The market remains weak due to high temperatures and rain affecting demand, leading to increased industry losses [2][35]. - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing weak trading activity, with prices for 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels dropping to 13 CNY/m² and 21 CNY/m², respectively [43]. Fiberglass - The market for non-alkali fiberglass continues to decline, with mainstream prices for 2400tex winding yarn at 3500-3800 CNY/ton, averaging 3696.5 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.62% [2][45]. - The electronic yarn G75 is priced between 8800-9200 CNY/ton, with stable pricing expected in the short term [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders, particularly those benefiting from second-hand housing and renovation demands, such as Sanke Tree, Beixin Building Materials, and others [3][4]. - The report highlights potential opportunities in the construction sector, particularly for state-owned enterprises involved in major engineering projects, such as China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction [4].

Overall Economic Activity - Economic activity in the U.S. is generally experiencing a slight to moderate decline, with half of the regions reporting a downturn, while three regions are stable and three show slight growth [2][3] - Manufacturing activity is broadly contracting, and consumer spending is mixed, with retail and dining sectors showing weakness, although some categories like automobiles are seeing increased demand due to tariff expectations [2][3] - The housing market is sluggish, with new home construction slowing down and existing home sales remaining flat, while inventory pressures are rising [2][3] Labor Market - Employment conditions are relatively stable, with most regions reporting flat employment rates, although some sectors like manufacturing and construction are seeing layoffs or hiring freezes [4] - Wage growth is moderate, with over 70% of businesses adopting a cautious approach to future hiring, and many have prepared for potential layoffs [4][11] - Job openings have unexpectedly increased, but the number of voluntary resignations has dropped significantly, indicating weakened confidence in the job market [11][12] Inflation and Pricing - Prices have been rising at a moderate pace, with tariffs exerting upward pressure on costs and prices, leading manufacturers to raise prices or reduce profits [5][6] - The real estate market remains stable, but new construction activities are either flat or slowing down due to uncertainty and high costs [6] - Service industries are facing limitations in pricing power, with some businesses delaying price adjustments to maintain demand [5][6] Regional Economic Highlights - Boston reports slight declines in consumption and housing prices, with businesses delaying hiring due to tariffs [7] - Atlanta sees growth in the energy sector, particularly LNG exports, while manufacturing is noticeably declining [8] - San Francisco's technology and financial services remain stable, but retail is shrinking, and the agricultural and real estate markets are softening [9] Policy and Economic Outlook - The intertwining of tariff disputes and interest rate cut expectations is creating a dual challenge for the U.S. economy, with markets anticipating at least two rate cuts within the year [14][15] - Recent data has led to increased speculation about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with a significant probability now assigned to cuts occurring in September or earlier [14] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitical risks continues to weigh on economic outlooks, with many regions maintaining a cautious stance [9][10]

Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 5, 2025, the State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF (159719) increased by 0.26%, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 1.52 yuan [1] - The trading volume for the State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF was 1.81%, with a transaction value of 2.0078 million yuan, and the average daily transaction over the past year was 17.5677 million yuan [1] - The China Securities Index for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development (931000) rose by 0.34%, with significant increases in constituent stocks such as South Network Energy (9.92%) and Shenghong Technology (6.61%) [1] Group 2: Corporate Restructuring - On June 5, multiple companies disclosed the restructuring progress of China Weaponry Equipment Group Co., Ltd., which received approval from the State Council to implement a split, with its automotive business becoming an independent central enterprise [2] - The restructuring is expected to enhance Changan Automobile's focus on its core automotive business and improve its competitive edge, allowing for a more flexible operational mechanism and stronger resource integration capabilities [2] - Dongfeng Motor Corporation has postponed its restructuring, likely due to its own business integration needs and market strategy considerations, retaining more autonomy for adjustments [2] Group 3: Index Composition - The Greater Bay Area ETF closely tracks the China Securities Index for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 53.21% of the index [4] - The State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF tracks the FTSE China State-Owned Enterprises Open Win-Win Index, which consists of 100 constituent stocks, including 80 A-share companies and 20 Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [4] - The top ten constituent stocks of the State-Owned Enterprise Win-Win ETF are all "Chinese state-owned" stocks, including China Petroleum, China Sinopec, and China Construction [4]

若厂商无法吸收成本，势必会转嫁到自家产品价格上。瑞典钢铁巨头SSAB的美国法人的高级副总裁6月 2日警告："关税对美国国内供应链是积极的，但依赖全球供应链的企业将面临更大负担"。 美国总统特朗普5月30日主张"巩固美国的钢铁产业"，呼吁保护国内产业。美国钢铁协会主席Lourenco Goncalves在6月3日表示："关税措施将纠正贸易不平衡，吸引大量投资回流美国"，对提高关税表示欢 迎。 但钢铁行业的设备投资需要数年时间，新建钢铁厂的费用高达数万亿日元。美国是全球最大的钢材进口 国。在2023年的钢材消费中，进口产品占到3成。在设备投资取得进展之前，美国仍需依赖进口，短期 内成本将持续上升。 美国的钢材价格已达到全球平均的2倍。根据钢铁基准（SteelBenchmarker）的数据，截至5月26日，美 国的钢材平均价格为每吨901美元。由于进口钢材占比较高，提高关税可能会进一步推高美国的钢材价 格。 在汽车、建筑等行业，对成本上升的警惕加剧。 美国福特汽车预计，因进口关税造成的成本增加将导致15亿美元的利润减少。零部件中使用的钢铁和铝 受到关税的影响，导致成本上升。福特汽车的首席财务官谢丽·豪斯5月表示，" ...

Group 1: Job Market Overview - The private-sector payrolls report from ADP for May shows a weak job creation of +37K, significantly below the projected +110K, marking the lowest tally since March 2023 [1][2] - The average job creation over the past four months is only +82K, compared to +197K in the previous four months, indicating a substantial decline in job growth [2] - Goods-producing jobs decreased by -2K, while services added a modest +36K jobs, reflecting ongoing challenges in the labor market [3][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The Leisure & Hospitality sector gained +38K jobs, followed by Financial Services with +20K and Construction with +6K, while Education & Health Services lost -13K and Professional/Business Services saw a decline of -27K [4] - Medium-sized companies (50-499 employees) led job gains with +49K, while large firms lost -3K and small businesses dropped -13K, highlighting the vulnerability of small-sized companies in the current labor market [5] Group 3: Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced a +4.5% year-over-year wage increase, while Job Changers saw a +7.0% increase, indicating a generally healthy wage environment despite lower levels compared to previous periods [6] - Wages are stabilizing at robust levels, but there are no strong sectors driving significant hiring, leading to a hesitant job market [7] Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the ADP report, pre-market indexes shifted from positive to negative, with the Dow down -44 points, S&P 500 down -4, and Nasdaq down -20 [8] - Year-to-date performance shows the Dow at -0.7%, S&P at +0.7%, Nasdaq at +2.2%, and Russell 2000 at -6.5%, indicating mixed market sentiment [8]

新订单指数暴跌5.9点至46.4，创近一年最大降幅；反映业务活跃度的指标骤降3.7点至50，为五年最低 美国服务业活动近一年来首次陷入萎缩区间，需求突然回落的同时，价格压力加速攀升——新一轮对等关税的冲击波正在全美经济中扩散。 美国供应管理协会（ISM）周三表示，美国非制造业PMI降至49.9，跌破50大关，也是自2024年6月以来的最低水平。这一数值弱于彭博调查中除两位经济学 家外的所有预测，新订单指标创下2024年6月以来最大跌幅，而支付价格指数则飙升至2022年末以来的最高水平。 数据显示，需求"急冻"与通胀"高烧"并存： 数据公布后，美国2年期至10年期国债收益率跌至5月9日以来的最低水平。标普500指数涨幅收窄。 ISM调查委员会主席史蒂夫·米勒（Steve Miller）表示："当前指数并非严重萎缩的信号，而是反映了企业对长期关税不确定性的普遍焦虑。受访者持续抱怨 难以制定计划，许多公司正推迟或减少订单，直至政策影响明朗化。" 随着企业重构供应链，供应商交货时间延长，但库存情绪指数却飙升至62.9（近11个月高点），预示未来数月制造业可能承压。就业指数微升1.7点至50.7， 显示招聘近乎停滞。" ...