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大行评级丨花旗:上调洛阳钼业AH股目标价 上调2025至27年净利润预测
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-10-27 09:04
Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for the first three quarters of this year increased by 73% year-on-year to 14.3 billion yuan, achieving 72% and 84% of Citigroup and market's full-year forecasts respectively [1] Financial Performance - The recurring net profit and EBIT for the first three quarters were 14.5 billion yuan and 24.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 70% and 33% [1] - The estimated EBIT for the third quarter reached 9 billion yuan, showing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% and 2% respectively, surpassing Citigroup's expectations, primarily due to higher copper production and sales [1] Future Projections - The net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 19.5%, 36.6%, and 19.6% to 19.8 billion yuan, 25.2 billion yuan, and 27 billion yuan respectively [1] - The target price for H-shares has been increased from 13.4 HKD to 20.6 HKD, and for A-shares from 12.6 CNY to 19 CNY, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]
花旗:上调洛阳钼业AH股目标价 上调2025至27年净利润预测
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 09:04
Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for the first three quarters of this year increased by 73% year-on-year to 14.3 billion yuan, achieving 72% and 84% of Citigroup and market's full-year forecasts respectively [1] Financial Performance - The recurring net profit and EBIT for the first three quarters were 14.5 billion yuan and 24.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 70% and 33% [1] - The estimated EBIT for the third quarter reached 9 billion yuan, showing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% and 2% respectively, surpassing Citigroup's expectations, primarily due to higher copper production and sales [1] Future Projections - Citigroup has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 19.5%, 36.6%, and 19.6% respectively, projecting profits of 19.8 billion yuan, 25.2 billion yuan, and 27 billion yuan [1] Target Price Adjustments - The target price for H-shares has been increased from 13.4 HKD to 20.6 HKD, while the target price for A-shares has been raised from 12.6 yuan to 19 yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]
新股前瞻|智汇矿业二次递表:凭矿“吃饭”,毛利率维持在30%-40%
智通财经网· 2025-10-27 08:53
Core Viewpoint - Zhihui Mining, a mining company from Tibet, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, providing an opportunity to observe the growth logic of zinc concentrate enterprises and industry trends [1] Company Overview - Zhihui Mining operates in the mining sector, covering exploration, mining, and production of zinc, lead, and copper concentrates, ranking fifth, fourth, and fifth in Tibet for these products respectively [1] - The company has two mining operations: an open-pit mine in commercial operation since 2007 and an underground mine that began operations in the second quarter of 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and profit have shown significant volatility, with revenues of 482 million, 546 million, and 301 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, and net profits of 118 million, 155 million, and 55.85 million yuan during the same period [3] - In 2024, revenue decreased by 44.8% and net profit dropped by 63.9% due to production delays caused by weather and temporary halts in production lines for upgrades [3] - Despite a rise in average selling prices, total sales volume of concentrates fell sharply, with a 56.33% decrease in the quantity sold in 2024 [3] Revenue Structure - The company's revenue primarily comes from the sale of zinc concentrates, which accounted for approximately 61.4%, 50.1%, and 71.6% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024 [4] - Following the resumption of full operations and completion of processing upgrades in April 2025, revenue increased significantly to 257 million yuan, a 253.4% year-on-year growth [4] Industry Context - The zinc industry is experiencing strong demand driven by infrastructure and construction, with domestic consumption of refined zinc reaching 6,642 thousand tons in 2024 [6] - China faces a supply shortage in the zinc concentrate market, necessitating imports due to domestic production declines, which presents a favorable opportunity for Zhihui Mining [7] Strategic Challenges - The company must focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to maintain competitiveness amid market fluctuations and high production costs [6][8] - The mining sector is influenced by various factors, including global economic conditions, commodity prices, and regulatory policies, which can impact profitability and cash flow [8]
瑞银:洛阳钼业第三季业绩胜预期 目标价20.5港元 予“买入”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 07:44
该行指,第三季钴销量达5,000吨,较市场预期高,对比第二季为2,200吨。此外,有效税率由第二季的 37%大幅降第三季的27%,意味期内税务支出较上季减少9亿元。 瑞银发布研报称,洛阳钼业(603993)(03993)表现胜预期,预期投资者将有正面反应,现予目标价20.5 港元及"买入"评级。洛阳钼业今年首三季归属股东净利润达143亿元人民币(下同),同比增长73%,已达 市场全年预期的87%,以及该行预期的80%。单计第三季,净利润为56亿元,同比增长96%,按季增长 19%,较市场预期高约10亿元。 ...
高盛:一举升洛阳钼业目标价至19港元 料受惠于铜价及产量上升
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 07:28
高盛发布研报称,维持对洛阳钼业(603993)(03993)的"买入"评级,目标价从10.8港元升至19港元。洛 阳钼业按中国会计准则计算第三季纯利同比增长96%至56.1亿元人民币,首三季经常性净利润为141亿 元人民币,胜预期,并相当于该行全年预测的约75%及市场预期的约82%。 因应首三季表现及该行对铜价的最新预测,该行将洛钼2025至2027年经常性盈利预测上调8%至32%, 同时将2028至2030年铜产量预测上调30%至100万吨,预期铜价上升及钴价复苏将推动洛钼2025至2026 年经常性利润年均复合增长率达38%,加上2028年实现100万吨铜产量及Cangrejos金铜项目投产的预 期,将驱动2028至2029年盈利增长。 ...
高盛:一举升洛阳钼业(03993)目标价至19港元 料受惠于铜价及产量上升
智通财经网· 2025-10-27 07:27
因应首三季表现及该行对铜价的最新预测,该行将洛钼2025至2027年经常性盈利预测上调8%至32%, 同时将2028至2030年铜产量预测上调30%至100万吨,预期铜价上升及钴价复苏将推动洛钼2025至2026 年经常性利润年均复合增长率达38%,加上2028年实现100万吨铜产量及Cangrejos金铜项目投产的预 期,将驱动2028至2029年盈利增长。 智通财经APP获悉,高盛发布研报称,维持对洛阳钼业(03993)的"买入"评级,目标价从10.8港元升至19 港元。洛阳钼业按中国会计准则计算第三季纯利同比增长96%至56.1亿元人民币,首三季经常性净利润 为141亿元人民币,胜预期,并相当于该行全年预测的约75%及市场预期的约82%。 ...
国信证券:维持中国有色矿业(01258)“优于大市”评级 经营业绩保持平稳
智通财经网· 2025-10-27 07:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth for 2025-2027 with expected revenues of $3.632 billion, $4.730 billion, and $4.950 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $480 million, $518 million, and $631 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - In the third quarter, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $35.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $12.3 million, $14.0 million, and $9.3 million for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The company produced approximately 54,200 tons of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper remained stable at approximately 63,900 tons [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SM Minerals through a share subscription, with the funds primarily allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights hold approximately 1.5 million tons of copper metal, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]
国信证券:维持中国有色矿业“优于大市”评级 经营业绩保持平稳
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 07:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 with expected revenues of $36.32 billion, $47.30 billion, and $49.50 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $4.80 billion, $5.18 billion, and $6.31 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $3.56 billion for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $1.23 billion, $1.40 billion, and $0.93 billion for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The production of copper from the company's own mines was approximately 54,200 tons for crude copper and anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SMMinerals through a share subscription, with the subscription price mainly allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights owned by SMMinerals have an estimated copper metal reserve of approximately 1.5 million tons, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]
赤峰黄金(600988):矿金采选方案持续优化,公司业绩加速上行
Dongxing Securities· 2025-10-27 06:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Chifeng Gold [2][12]. Core Views - Chifeng Gold's performance is accelerating due to continuous optimization of mining and gold selection plans, with significant growth in revenue and net profit [3][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 8.644 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.91%, and a net profit of 2.058 billion yuan, up 86.21% year-on-year [3][12]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of 3.372 billion yuan, reflecting a 66.39% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 951 million yuan, up 140.98% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the total gold production was 10,705.28 kg, a slight decrease of 0.41% year-on-year, while sales were 10,669.23 kg, down 2.56% year-on-year [4]. - The third quarter's gold production was 3,951 kg, an increase of 23.55% year-on-year, driven by improved production lines and mining operations [4][5]. - The average selling price of gold increased by 44.13% year-on-year, leading to a rise in gross margin from 41.96% in Q3 2024 to 49.89% in Q3 2025 [5][6]. Cost and Profitability - The all-in sustaining cost for gold production was 356.37 yuan per gram, up 24.81% year-on-year, with domestic costs at 256.88 yuan per gram [5][6]. - The company's profitability improved significantly, with the return on equity (ROE) rising from 16.66% to 20.14% [6][12]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.319 billion yuan, 15.631 billion yuan, and 17.654 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.244 billion yuan, 3.969 billion yuan, and 4.701 billion yuan [12][13]. - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% for gold production from 2025 to 2027 [4][12].
大行评级丨高盛:大幅上调洛阳钼业目标价至19港元 料受惠于铜价及产量上升
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-27 05:09
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Luoyang Molybdenum (3993.HK) achieved a 96% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, reaching 5.61 billion RMB, with recurring net profit for the first three quarters at 14.1 billion RMB, exceeding expectations [1] Financial Performance - The recurring net profit for the first three quarters is approximately 75% of Goldman Sachs' full-year forecast and about 82% of market expectations [1] - The company’s Q3 net profit growth is attributed to rising copper prices and a recovery in cobalt prices [1] Earnings Forecast - Goldman Sachs has raised its recurring profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum for 2025 to 2027 by 8% to 32% [1] - The copper production forecast for 2028 to 2030 has been increased by 30% to 1 million tons [1] Growth Drivers - The expected average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for recurring profits from 2025 to 2026 is projected to be 38% due to rising copper prices and cobalt price recovery [1] - The anticipated production of 1 million tons of copper in 2028 and the launch of the Cangrejos gold-copper project are expected to drive profit growth from 2028 to 2029 [1] Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum, raising the target price from 10.8 HKD to 19 HKD [1]