紫金矿业 20260226 摘要 持"矿业为主导"，以"提质、上产、控本、增效"为总方针；相较过去几年 强调"提质、控本、增效"，在当前金属价格较为合适的前提下，将"上产" 明确纳入新的总方针，并对主要矿产品产量规划指标进行了小幅上调。2026 年指引与前期变化不大：矿产金预计 105 吨，矿产铜预计 120 万吨，当量碳 酸锂预计约 12 万吨，其中当量碳酸锂由 2025 年的 2.5 万吨提升而来，主要源 于多个项目逐步放量。到 2028 年的三年规划目标为：矿产金约 130 至 140 吨， 矿产铜约 150 至 160 万吨，当量碳酸锂约 27 至 32 万吨；同时还包括矿产银、 铅锌，以及正在逐步开发和投产的矿产钼。2035 年远景目标是在三年规划基 础上实现更明显的跨越式增量，力争公司主要技术与经济指标较 2025 年实现 跨越式增长，部分指标达到全球首位，全面建成"绿色、高技术、超一流的国 际矿业集团"。 2026 年当量碳酸锂 12 万吨的产量目标如何拆分到具体项目，并进一步对应 到 2028 年 27 至 32 万吨的项目构成与节奏安排是什么？ 2026 年当量碳酸锂规划产量约 12 万吨。 ...

除黄金外，紫金矿业的"铜+锂"双轮驱动战略也取得突破。矿产铜产量达109万吨，当量碳酸锂产量从2024年的261吨飙升至2.5 万吨。公司通过收购藏格矿业等举措快速切入新能源赛道，2026年锂产量计划更是高达12万吨，展现出在能源转型中的战略卡 位能力。 紫金矿业通过逆周期并购构建了全球化资源版图，在15个国家拥有62座矿山。公司独创的"矿石五流五环归一"管理模式将资源 回收率提升至行业领先水平，金锭毛利率达54.39%，成本优势显著。近期280亿收购联合黄金的举措，进一步强化了其在全球 黄金行业的领导地位。 多家券商认为黄金牛市基础依然稳固，华福证券预计2026年金价将继续攀升。不过投资者需注意，紫金矿业作为典型的周期 股，其业绩与金属价格高度相关。虽然当前PE仅16倍低于国际同行，但锂价波动、海外运营等风险仍需警惕。这家"中国矿业 之光"能否持续"大象起舞"，将考验其跨周期运营能力。（IT手机金融） 紫金矿业2025年日赚1.4亿创历史新高！黄金牛市+铜锂双轮驱动解析。 紫金矿业2025年业绩创下历史新高，预计全年归母净利润510-520亿元，同比大增59%-62%，相当于日赚近1.4亿元。这一"炸 裂" ...

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - As of February 9, 2026, 271 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange have issued positive performance forecasts for 2025, with 168 expecting profit increases and 85 companies turning losses into profits [1] - In the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 391 companies have disclosed their expected performance for 2025, with nearly 60% of these companies anticipating year-on-year net profit growth, including 39 companies expecting over 100% profit growth [1] - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the "14th Five-Year Plan," showcasing resilience and structural highlights in the operations of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals Industry - The nonferrous metals industry is projected to see an industrial added value growth of 6.9% in 2025, surpassing the national average by 1.0 percentage points, with production of ten major nonferrous metals exceeding 80 million tons for the first time [2] - The total profit of large-scale enterprises in the nonferrous metals sector is expected to reach 528.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, marking a historical high [2] - Leading companies in the nonferrous metals sector are exhibiting a "volume-price resonance" characteristic, with significant increases in production and prices of key minerals like gold, copper, cobalt, and lithium contributing to profit growth [2] Group 3: Key Companies in Nonferrous Metals - Zijin Mining is expected to achieve a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, driven by rising prices of gold, silver, and copper [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum, the largest cobalt producer globally, anticipates a net profit of 20 to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.80% to 53.71% [3] - Huayou Cobalt expects a net profit of 5.85 to 6.45 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 40.80% to 55.24%, benefiting from upstream resource production and recovering downstream material business [3] Group 4: Electronics Industry - The electronics industry is experiencing significant growth driven by AI, with smart hardware becoming a primary growth engine [4] - Huaqin Technology forecasts a revenue of 170 to 171.5 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.7% to 56.1%, and a net profit of 4 to 4.05 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 36.7% to 38.4% [4] - Shengyi Technology anticipates a net profit of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% to 98%, driven by strong demand in automotive electronics and AI servers [4] - Rockchip is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.387 to 4.427 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.023 to 1.103 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71.97% to 85.42% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has announced its three-year plan (2026-2028) and long-term vision for 2035, aiming to enhance its resource reserves, production output, sales revenue, asset scale, and profit rankings, with copper and gold production entering the global top three [1] Group 1: Strategic Goals - The new management team has set ambitious targets to achieve a "green high-tech super first-class international mining group" by 2035, with significant growth in key indicators compared to 2025 [1] - The company plans to acquire three large gold mines in Africa from Canada’s United Gold and has issued $1.5 billion in zero-interest H-share convertible bonds as part of its strategic initiatives [1] Group 2: Production and Economic Indicators - The planned production outputs for key minerals by 2028 are: gold (130-140 tons), copper (150-160 million tons), silver (600-700 tons), lithium equivalent (270-320 thousand tons), and molybdenum (25-35 thousand tons), representing growth rates of 44%-56%, 38%-47%, 37%-60%, 980%-1180%, and 127%-218% respectively compared to 2025 [4] - The company aims to become one of the largest producers of lithium and molybdenum globally, in addition to advancing its global rankings in gold and copper production [4] Group 3: Operational Strategy - The company's operational strategy focuses on "quality improvement, cost control, efficiency enhancement," with an added emphasis on production increase, targeting capacity release in gold, copper, lithium, zinc (lead), silver, and molybdenum sectors [4] - The chairman emphasizes the long journey ahead to achieve the ambitious goals, highlighting the company's history of transforming the "impossible" into "possible" through perseverance and cultural values [4]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company: Zijin Mining Group Strategic Goals and Future Planning - Zijin Mining has set ambitious goals for 2026-2028 and a long-term vision for 2035, aiming to become a "green, high-tech, first-class international mining group" by 2035 [1] - By 2028, the company plans to enhance its rankings in resource reserves, major mineral product output, sales revenue, asset scale, and profits, targeting to place copper and gold production among the top three globally [1] - The company aims to establish a global operational management system and an ESG sustainable development system tailored to its characteristics by 2028 [1] Production Targets - The company has outlined specific production targets for key minerals from 2025 to 2028: - Gold production is expected to increase from 90 tons to 130-140 tons [1] - Copper production is projected to rise from 1.09 million tons to 1.5-1.6 million tons [1] - Silver production is anticipated to grow from 437 tons to 600-700 tons [1] - Lithium carbonate equivalent is expected to jump from 25,000 tons to 270,000-320,000 tons [1] - Molybdenum production is set to increase from 11,000 tons to 25,000-35,000 tons [1] - Zinc/lead production is expected to remain stable at 400,000-450,000 tons [1] Market Position and Resilience - The company focuses on three strategic minerals: gold, copper, and lithium, aiming to accelerate capacity release and efficiently convert resource advantages into long-term value [2] - There is a market concern regarding the impact of gold and copper price fluctuations on the company's performance; however, the company possesses significant systematic technical capabilities to transform "stale mines into productive mines," which serves as a long-term competitive advantage [2] - Despite global challenges such as declining copper ore grades and increased mining difficulties, the company can leverage technical output and management optimization to achieve profitability and rapid scale expansion, thereby enhancing asset value [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has raised its gold production target for the next three years, aiming to increase its gold output to 130-140 tons by 2028, positioning itself among the top three globally in gold production [2][12]. Production Targets - The company plans to increase its gold production from a previously set target of 100-110 tons in 2028 to 130-140 tons, which represents a 50% increase from the 2025 baseline [2][12]. - The production targets for other minerals include copper, which is expected to rise from 109,000 tons in 2025 to 150,000-160,000 tons by 2028, and silver, projected to increase from 437 tons in 2025 to 600-700 tons by 2028 [3][13]. Strategic Focus on Gold - Zijin Mining has shifted its focus towards gold, as evidenced by the increased weight of its gold business in its overall portfolio, leading to significant growth in profits and market value [4][11]. - The company's revenue from gold production has shown a substantial increase, with gold output rising from 56 tons to 90 tons between 2022 and 2025, marking a 61% increase [5][6]. Market Position and Competitiveness - As of 2025, Zijin Mining's gold production is expected to be significantly higher than its closest domestic competitor, Shandong Gold, and it has improved its global ranking from 9th to 5th in gold production [10][11]. - The company aims to surpass Agnico Eagle and Barrick Gold, which are currently ranked second and third in global gold production, by leveraging its high growth rate in gold output [17]. Future Growth and Projects - The company plans to support its ambitious gold production targets through various projects, including the Norton Gold Mine in Australia and the Buriticá Gold Mine in Colombia, as well as new acquisitions in Africa [18]. - A recent acquisition worth 28 billion yuan is expected to contribute approximately 12 tons of gold production by 2025, with further potential for increased output through expansion [18].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has raised its gold production target for the next three years, aiming to increase its gold output to 130-140 tons by 2028, positioning itself among the top three globally in gold production [1][11]. Production Plans - The company originally set a gold production target of 100-110 tons for 2028, but due to recent acquisitions of gold mining assets, it is likely to achieve an annual output of 100 tons by 2026, two years ahead of schedule [1][11]. - The new target requires an increase of 40-50 tons in gold production over the next three years, representing a 50% growth compared to the 2025 baseline [1][11]. Comparison with Competitors - Currently, the largest gold producer globally is Newmont Corporation, with a projected output of over 180 tons in 2025. Zijin Mining has at least 50% room for improvement to match Newmont's production levels [2]. - The company aims to surpass Agnico Eagle and Barrick Gold, which are currently ranked second and third in gold production [2][14]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue grew by approximately 28%, while its total profit surged by around 167%, indicating that the growth in the gold segment has significantly outpaced overall revenue growth [4]. - In 2022, Zijin Mining's copper production was 910,000 tons, expected to rise to 1.09 million tons by 2025, while gold production is projected to increase from 56 tons to 90 tons, marking a 61% growth [5]. Market Position - As of February 9, 2026, Zijin Mining's market capitalization reached a peak of 1.1 trillion yuan, with the overall market value of the "Zijin system" exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [9]. - The company has improved its global ranking in gold production from approximately ninth place in 2022 to fifth place by 2025 [9]. Strategic Focus - The company plans to continue focusing on its gold segment, with a production target of 130-140 tons by 2028, which is a 50% increase from the 2025 output [11][14]. - Zijin Mining is also accelerating the development of key projects in Australia, Colombia, Suriname, Ghana, and Kazakhstan to support its production goals [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has announced its three-year production plan for major mineral products from 2026 to 2028, aiming to enhance its resource reserves and production capacity, with gold and copper output expected to rank among the top three globally by 2028 [1][3] Group 1: Production Plans and Goals - The company plans to produce 105 tons of gold, 120,000 tons of copper, 520 tons of silver, 400,000 tons of zinc/lead, 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, and 15,000 tons of molybdenum by 2026 [1] - By 2028, Zijin Mining aims to further improve its rankings in resource reserves, production output, sales revenue, asset scale, and profit [1] Group 2: Performance and Capacity Expansion - Zijin Mining is focused on maximizing the production capacity of its key mineral products, particularly in the lithium sector, and is set to launch several major construction projects [3] - The company is accelerating production at several gold mines, including those in Papua New Guinea, Australia, Colombia, Guyana, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, while also enhancing domestic production capabilities [3] - In the copper sector, Zijin Mining is expediting the production capacity of its three major copper mines, including the Jilong Copper Mine and the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Forecast - Zijin Mining expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [5] - The company anticipates an increase in the production of major mineral products in 2025, including approximately 90 tons of gold and 1.09 million tons of copper [5] Group 4: Recent Acquisitions and Developments - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, has signed an agreement to acquire Allied Gold Corporation for approximately 5.5 billion Canadian dollars (about 28 billion yuan), which includes several gold mining assets [6] - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine has been completed, increasing its production capacity to 350,000 tons per day, with significant increases in annual copper and molybdenum production expected [7]

| | | 2025 年 | 2026 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 礦產金 | 順 | 90 | I 02 | | 礦產銅 | 萬噸 | 109 | 120 | | 礦產銀 | 順 | 437 | 520 | | 礦產鋅／鉛 | 萬噸 | 40 | 40 | | 當量碳酸锂 | 萬噸 | 2.5 | 12 | | 礦產鋁 | 萬噸 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 公司规划，到2028年，公司的资源储量、主要矿产品产量、销售收入、资产规模、利润等综合指标排名进一步提升，铜、金矿产品产量进入全球前3位，全 面建成高度适配且具有紫金特色的全球化运营管理体系和ESG可持续发展体系;力争到2035年，公司主要指标较2025年实现跨越式增长，部份指标达到全球 首位，全面建成"绿色高技术超一流国际矿业集团"。 智通财经APP讯，紫金矿业(02899)发布公告，2026年2月8日，公司召开第九届董事会2026年第4次临时会议，会议审议通过《公司三年(2026—2028年)主要 矿产品产量规划和2035年远景目标纲要》，明确未来3年主要矿产品产量规划指标，并提出至2035年全面建成"绿色高技术超 ...

關於三年（2026—2028 年）主要礦產品產量規劃和 2035 年遠景目標綱要的公告 重要内容提示： 一、編制背景 2023—2025 年，面對全球政治經濟和社會環境深刻變革，公司堅持「提質、控本、增效」工 作總方針，超預期完成目標任務，主要經濟指標和銅、金礦產品產量進入全球第 3—5 位。 主要財務數據 單位：人民幣億元 營業收入 利潤總額 歸母淨利潤 經營性淨現金流 資產總額 2022 年 2,703 300 200 287 3,060 2025 年 約 3,450 約 800 約 510-520 約 730 約 5,100 增長率 約 28% 約 167% 約 155%-160% 約 154% 約 67% 註：以上 2025 年數據為初步核算數據，具體以公司後續披露的經審計的 2025 年年度報告為 準。 1 ● 2026 年 2 月 8 日，紫金礦業集團股份有限公司（以下簡稱「本公司」、「公司」、「紫金」） 召開第九屆董事會 2026 年第 4 次臨時會議，會議審議通過《公司三年（2026—2028 年） 主要礦產品產量規劃和 2035 年遠景目標綱要》，明確未來三年主要礦產品產量規劃指 標，並提出 ...