Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report [1] - Date: April 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - No information provided Group 4: Price and Production Data - **Coke Prices**: - Shanxi quasi - first wet - quenched coke is priced at 1376.08, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 54.19, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.63% [2] - Hebei quasi - first wet - quenched coke is priced at 1655.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 25.00, a monthly increase of 180.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 24.43% [2] - Shandong quasi - first dry - quenched coke is priced at 1570.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 29.60% [2] - Jiangsu quasi - first dry - quenched coke is priced at 1610.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 29.07% [2] - Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is priced at 1100.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 50.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.25% [2] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: - The blast furnace operating rate is 90.15, with a weekly decrease of 0.04, a monthly increase of 1.45, and a year - on - year increase of 7.26% [2] - The daily average iron water output is 244.35, with a weekly increase of 4.23, a monthly increase of 7.07, and a year - on - year increase of 6.83% [2] - The coking plant capacity utilization rate is 73.41, with a weekly increase of 0.42, a monthly increase of 2.24, and a year - on - year increase of 13.90% [2] - The daily average coke output is 50.29, with a weekly decrease of 0.51, a monthly decrease of 1.44, and a year - on - year increase of 1.19% [2] Group 5: Inventory Data - **Inventory Quantities**: - Coking plant inventory is 68.82, with a weekly increase of 0.86, a monthly decrease of 0.87, and a year - on - year increase of 35.74% [2] - Port inventory is 243.58, with a weekly decrease of 2.52, a monthly increase of 28.47, and a year - on - year increase of 15.83% [2] - Steel mill inventory is 666.35, with a weekly increase of 1.95, a monthly decrease of 1.77, and a year - on - year increase of 20.32% [2] - **Inventory Days**: - Steel mill inventory days are 12.06, with a weekly decrease of 0.23, a monthly decrease of 0.66, and a year - on - year increase of 12.82% [2] Group 6: Futures Data - **Futures Prices**: - Futures contract 05 is priced at 1590, with a daily increase of 21.00, a weekly increase of 46.50, a monthly decrease of 4.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 27.26% [2] - Futures contract 09 is priced at 1586.5, with a daily increase of 20.50, a weekly increase of 32.00, a monthly decrease of 60.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 30.78% [2] - Futures contract 01 is priced at 1600.5, with a daily increase of 15.50, a weekly increase of 11.00, a monthly decrease of 97.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 30.74% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: - The 05 basis is 72.45, with a daily decrease of 21.00, a weekly decrease of 46.50, a monthly increase of 62.27, and a year - on - year increase of 95.01 [2] - The 09 basis is 75.95, with a daily decrease of 20.50, a weekly decrease of 32.00, a monthly increase of 118.77, and a year - on - year increase of 204.51 [2] - The 01 basis is 61.95, with a daily decrease of 15.50, a weekly decrease of 11.00, a monthly increase of 155.77, and a year - on - year increase of 209.51 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is 10.50, with a daily decrease of 5.50, a weekly decrease of 35.50, a monthly decrease of 93.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 114.50 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 3.50, with a daily increase of 0.50, a weekly increase of 14.50, a monthly increase of 56.50, and a year - on - year increase of 109.50 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is - 14.00, with a daily increase of 5.00, a weekly increase of 21.00, a monthly increase of 37.00, and a year - on - year increase of 5.00 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose later, while the CSI 300 Energy Index fell by 0.82% to 2106.64 points, with a trading volume of 4.239 billion yuan. The CSI 300 Energy Index has decreased by 0.31% over the past month, 5.24% over the past three months, and 13.23% year-to-date [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 300 Energy Index has shown a decline of 0.31% in the last month, 5.24% in the last three months, and 13.23% year-to-date [1]. - The top ten holdings in the CSI 300 Energy Index include China Shenhua (25.01%), China Petroleum (17.54%), and China Petrochemical (16.09%) [1]. Group 2: Market Composition - The CSI 300 Energy Index is composed of 96.30% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 3.70% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2]. - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Energy Index includes coal (50.97%), integrated oil and gas companies (33.62%), and fuel refining (10.16%) [2]. Group 3: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]. - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples [2].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for small and medium-sized comprehensive energy shows a decline in performance over various time frames, indicating potential challenges in the energy sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for small and medium-sized comprehensive energy closed at 1901.11 points, with a decline of 6.73% over the past month, 6.43% over the past three months, and 10.19% year-to-date [1]. - The index is categorized into 11 industries based on the classification standards of the China Securities Index series, reflecting the overall performance of different industry securities [1]. Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten holdings in the index include companies such as China Coal Energy (8.65%), Yongtai Energy (8.55%), and Jereh Oilfield Services (5.15%) [1]. - The index's market composition shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 54.91%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 22.93%, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for 22.16% [2]. Group 3: Industry Composition - The index's industry composition reveals that coal accounts for 31.95%, coke for 26.40%, and oil refining for 13.43% [2]. - Other significant sectors include oil and gas extraction (10.52%), oilfield services (7.66%), and oil and gas circulation (5.27%) [2]. Group 4: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. - Adjustments to the weight factors occur simultaneously with sample changes, and special circumstances may lead to temporary adjustments [2].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...