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研选 | 光大研究每周重点报告 20250517-20250523
光大证券研究· 2025-05-23 14:03
Group 1 - The core driver for the formation of a bull market is the recovery of the fundamentals, with liquidity easing and industrial trends often creating a resonance effect [3] - When the fundamentals improve comprehensively, it typically leads to a full bull market; during structural improvements, a bull market may also emerge if combined with liquidity easing and industrial trends [3] - The future outlook suggests a gradual and moderate recovery process for fundamentals, with macro and micro liquidity resonance and industrial upgrades expected to drive market growth [3] Group 2 - In 2024, coal enterprises experienced a decline in operating income, a decrease in operating cash flow, and significant net outflows in investment cash flow [4] - Financing cash flow continues to show a net outflow, with high leverage levels and growing debt, although overall debt repayment capability remains strong [4] - It is anticipated that coal enterprise profitability will still be supported in 2025, with operating cash flow remaining relatively ample and investment cash flow showing relative rigidity [5] Group 3 - The rapid development of AI is significantly increasing its electricity demand, despite short-term concerns regarding market changes and computing power investments [5] - The emergence of DeepSeek has further boosted AI investment confidence outside the United States, presenting development opportunities for server power supplies [5] - The market size for NVIDIA's AI server AC-DC power supply is expected to reach between 35.1 billion to 45.5 billion yuan by 2025, with chip iterations benefiting BBU and supercapacitors [5]
浙商证券浙商早知道-20250521
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 23:30
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.5%, the STAR 50 went up by 0.2%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 0.8%, the ChiNext Index gained 0.8%, and the Hang Seng Index surged by 1.49% [2][3] - The best-performing sectors included Beauty Care (+2.5%), Comprehensive (+2.1%), Media (+2.0%), Home Appliances (+1.7%), and Pharmaceutical Biology (+1.6%). The worst-performing sectors were Defense Industry (-0.5%), Coal (-0.3%), Steel (-0.1%), Real Estate (-0.1%), and Building Materials (+0.1%) [2][3] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,169.7 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.33 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [2][3] Key Recommendations Company: Jin Zai Food (003000) - Jin Zai Food is a leading brand in the snack food sector, with a clear growth path for its major products. The company is expected to exceed market revenue expectations in 2025, with a net profit margin slightly above market forecasts [3] - The company is expanding into new high-potential channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets, which are anticipated to drive significant revenue growth. The introduction of new products like short-shelf-life tofu and enriched konjac products is expected to contribute to sustained growth [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2,890.06 million yuan, 3,434.12 million yuan, and 4,104.14 million yuan, with growth rates of 19.82%, 18.83%, and 19.51% respectively. Net profits are projected at 343.32 million yuan, 418.22 million yuan, and 515.16 million yuan, with growth rates of 17.85%, 21.82%, and 23.18% respectively [3] Company: Oulutong (300870) - Oulutong is a leading supplier of high-power server power supplies, expected to benefit from the surge in demand driven by AI and domestic market expansion [4] - The company is positioned to capture increased market share as major internet companies ramp up AI-related capital expenditures, leading to a higher penetration rate of high-power server power supplies [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4,616.23 million yuan, 5,514.58 million yuan, and 6,501.19 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.56%, 19.46%, and 17.89% respectively. Net profits are projected at 354.04 million yuan, 465.43 million yuan, and 570.25 million yuan, with growth rates of 32.11%, 31.46%, and 22.52% respectively [5]