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兴业证券:内需政策有望持续加码 建材行业有望核心受益
智通财经网· 2025-05-19 03:41
Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from domestic demand policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on post-completion projects and renovation of second-hand homes [1] - As of April 30, the overall PB (Price to Book) for the construction materials sector is at 1.0x, indicating a historical low valuation, while the PE (Price to Earnings) for various segments shows significant differences [1] - In Q1 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 20 major cities reached 521,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 26.88%, indicating a resilient real estate market [1] Cement Sector - The cement market is experiencing a weak recovery in demand, with a projected year-on-year decline of 1.4% in Q1 2025 production, but municipal infrastructure is providing some support [2] - Central government policies promoting production optimization and price maintenance have improved the profitability of cement companies, with gross and net profit margins expected to rise in 2024 [2] - The overall average price of cement is anticipated to continue its upward trend in 2025, leading to a potential recovery in industry profits [2] Glass Sector - Demand for glass remains resilient, primarily driven by the progress in housing completion projects, although prices are under pressure due to overall weak demand [3] - Seasonal demand is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with fewer production lines expected to resume operations, leading to a more stable industry environment [3] - The recommendation for investment focuses on companies like Qibin Group, which are expected to see a reversal in profitability and valuation [3] Consumer Building Materials - Retail business is becoming a key growth driver, with leading companies accelerating their retail development in response to the renovation cycle of second-hand and existing homes [4] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies increasing their market share, particularly in the waterproofing materials sector [4] - The consumer building materials sector is currently undervalued, with a low allocation in public fund holdings, suggesting potential for growth [4] Glass Fiber Sector - The glass fiber industry is seeing a recovery in prices due to improved demand from wind energy and consumer electronics, with the average price reaching 3,812.5 yuan/ton as of April 18, 2025 [5] - Inventory levels have decreased, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance, which is favorable for long-term industry growth [5] - Leading companies in the glass fiber sector are expected to benefit from valuation and profit recovery opportunities [5]
建筑材料行业周报:预计需求延续旺季不旺,淡季不淡
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 16:00
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 建筑材料 预计需求延续旺季不旺,淡季不淡 2025 年 5 月 12 日至 5 月 16 日建筑材料板块(SW)下跌 0.49%,其中 水泥(SW)下跌 0.96%,玻璃制造(SW)下跌 0.88%,玻纤制造(SW) 上涨 2.01%,装修建材(SW)下跌 0.92%,本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益-0.45%。本期建筑材料板块(SW)资金净流入额为 0.76 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 根据 wind 统计,2025 年 4 月地方政府债总发行量 6932.91 亿元,发行金 额同比 2024 年 4 月增长 101.6%,截至目前,2025 年一般债发行规模 0.65 万亿元,同比-0.04 万亿元,专项债发行规模 3.18 万亿元,同比+1.71 万亿元。化债下加码政府财政压力有望减轻,企业资产负债表也存在修复 的空间,市政工程类项目有望加快推进,市政管网及减隔震实物工作量有 望加快落地,关注龙泉股份、青龙管业、中国联塑、震安科技。玻璃需求 季节性环比改善,但供需仍有矛盾:2025 年后玻璃需求持续下滑,3 ...
预计需求延续旺季不旺,淡季不淡
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 09:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Puhua Co., China Jushi, Beixin Building Materials, and Yuhua Co. [8] Core Insights - The construction materials sector is experiencing a mixed demand environment, with seasonal demand not significantly boosting activity, leading to a decline in stock performance [1][13] - The report highlights a significant increase in local government bond issuance, which is expected to alleviate fiscal pressure and potentially accelerate municipal engineering projects [2] - The glass market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a marginal improvement in demand observed since March 2025, but overall demand is expected to decline post-2025 [2][35] - The cement industry is in a bottoming phase, with companies increasing production cuts to stabilize prices, while the fiber glass market shows signs of recovery due to rising demand in the wind power sector [2][3][18] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of May 16, 2025, the national cement price index is 374.69 CNY/ton, down 0.5% week-on-week, while cement output increased by 7.48% to 3.5835 million tons [3][18] - The cement market is characterized by strong infrastructure demand but weak residential construction demand, leading to a "price for volume" strategy [18] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1306.73 CNY/ton, down 0.82% from the previous week, with inventory levels rising [35] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with weak demand and declining prices affecting sales [35] Fiber Glass Industry Tracking - The fiber glass market is stabilizing after a price war, with demand from the wind power sector expected to increase significantly in 2025 [2][6] - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology due to their growth potential [2] Other Construction Materials - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer building materials benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies [2] - Key stocks recommended include Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials, with a focus on companies with strong growth potential [2][8]
行业周报:央行降准降息助楼市企稳,关注建材投资机会-20250511
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 13:55
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The central theme of the report emphasizes that the recent reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates by the central bank is expected to stabilize the real estate market, thereby creating investment opportunities in the construction materials sector. The measures aim to support rigid housing demand and alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers, which could lead to a recovery in construction materials demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The construction materials index increased by 2.55% during the week of May 5 to May 9, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.55 percentage points. Over the past three months, the construction materials index rose by 1.77%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.88%, indicating a 3.65 percentage point outperformance [5][14]. - In the past year, the CSI 300 index increased by 4.91%, whereas the construction materials index decreased by 4.27%, resulting in a 9.18 percentage point underperformance [5][14]. Cement Sector - As of May 9, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 323.68 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.75% decrease from the previous period. The clinker inventory ratio was 63.24%, down by 0.56 percentage points [7][24]. - Regional price trends showed mixed results, with Northeast China experiencing a 5.83% increase, while other regions like East China saw a decrease of 6.84% [24]. Glass Sector - The average price of float glass as of May 9 was 1319.00 yuan/ton, down by 0.90%. The inventory of float glass increased by 199 million weight boxes, marking a 3.54% rise [7][84]. - The average price of photovoltaic glass was 135.16 yuan/weight box, reflecting a 2.81% decrease [87]. Fiberglass Sector - The report highlights that the fiberglass sector is gaining attention, particularly in relation to applications in 5G communication and AI, with companies like China Jushi being recommended [4]. Consumer Building Materials - The report recommends several companies in the consumer building materials sector, including Sankeshu (for channel expansion) and Dongfang Yuhong (for waterproofing) [4]. Valuation Metrics - As of May 9, the average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the construction materials sector was 26.28 times, ranking it 17th lowest among all A-share industries. The price-to-book (PB) ratio was 1.11 times, ranking it 5th lowest [20][23].
预计建材需求旺季不旺,淡季不淡
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 06:49
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 建筑材料 预计建材需求旺季不旺,淡季不淡 2025 年 5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日建筑材料板块(SW)上涨 0.92%,其中水泥 (SW)上涨 0.57%,玻璃制造(SW)上涨 0.38%,玻纤制造(SW)下 跌 0.39%,装修建材(SW)上涨 1.85%,本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超 额收益-0.07%。本期建筑材料板块(SW)资金净流入额为-0.14 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周国新办发布会发布一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期,总量方面,降 低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点,下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点,地产方面, 降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点,5 年期以上首套房利率由 2.85%降至 2.6%,其他期限的利率同步调整,此外,会议还指出加快 出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度,助力持续巩固房地产市 场稳定态势。根据 wind 统计,2025 年 4 月地方政府债总发行量 6932.91 亿元,发行金额同比 2024 年 4 月增长 101.6%,截至目前,2025 年一般 债 ...
4月地产销售热度回落,预期后续政策走强
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-07 05:57
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][68] Core Viewpoints - In April, the real estate sales heat has declined, but there are expectations for stronger policies in the future. The central bank's vice governor disclosed that personal housing loans increased by 220 billion yuan in Q1, which is over 200 billion yuan more than the previous year. Various cities have introduced new housing policies to support home purchases, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the real estate market [3][13]. - Short-term factors include the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate sector during the April Politburo meeting, the urgency to expand domestic demand and promote investment amid escalating global trade tensions, and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [3][13]. - Long-term factors suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the US may provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China. The Politburo meeting in September 2024 explicitly stated the need to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for policies such as lowering existing mortgage rates and transaction taxes to support demand [3][13]. Summary by Sections Recent High-frequency Data - As of April 30, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 395.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8% from last week, but a year-on-year increase of 13.0%. The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1275.7 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from last week and down 25.2% year-on-year [4][22]. Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.49%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index remained unchanged. The building materials index dropped by 2.14%. Among sub-sectors, refractory materials increased by 1.61%, while cement manufacturing decreased by 2.25% [5][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality blue-chip stocks benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [6]. 2. Undervalued stocks benefiting from the alleviation of B-end credit risks, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [6]. 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [6].
建筑材料行业周报:政治局会议巩固地产稳定态势,关注建材投资机会
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-04-27 12:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to create investment opportunities in building materials [3] - The report highlights the importance of local government bond issuance and the acceleration of urban renewal actions to support the industry [3] - Recommendations for consumer building materials include companies like Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware, while beneficiaries include Beixin Building Materials [3] Market Performance - The building materials index increased by 0.22% in the week from April 21 to April 25, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.38% [4][13] - Over the past three months, the building materials index has risen by 3.00%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.19% [4][13] - In the past year, the building materials index has increased by 2.03%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.63% [4][13] Cement Sector - As of April 25, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 332.84 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.03% [6][26] - The clinker inventory ratio reached 63.80%, an increase of 2.46 percentage points [6][26] - Regional price variations were noted, with Northeast prices increasing by 7.14% while prices in other regions like North China and South China saw declines [26][28] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass remained stable at 1331.00 RMB/ton as of April 25, 2025, while the price of photovoltaic glass was 139.06 RMB/weight box, also stable [6][90] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 6,000 weight boxes, a decline of 0.11% [84][85] Fiberglass Sector - The report indicates a growing interest in the LowDk electronic cloth supply chain, which is primarily used in 5G communication and AI applications [3] - Recommendations for the fiberglass sector include China Jushi, with beneficiaries being Zhongcai Technology and Changhai Co [3] Valuation Metrics - The average PE ratio for the building materials sector is 27.25, ranking it 17th lowest among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.10, ranking it 5th lowest [21][24]
行业周报:政治局会议巩固地产稳定态势,关注建材投资机会-20250427
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-04-27 10:57
建筑材料 2025 年 04 月 27 日 政治局会议巩固地产稳定态势,关注建材投资机会 ——行业周报 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《提振内需预期加强,关注建材投资 机会—行业周报》-2025.4.20 《对等关税利空落地,内需刺激值得 期待—行业周报》-2025.4.13 《建材出口区域多元化,"对等关 税"实际影响有限 —行业周报》- 2025.4.6 张绪成(分析师) zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790520020003 政治局会议巩固地产稳定态势,关注建材投资机会 4 月 25 日,中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作,会议强 调,要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。兜牢基层 "三保"底线。会议并指出,继续实施地方政府一揽子化债政策,加快解决地方政 府拖欠企业账款问题。加力实施城市更新行动,有力有序推进 ...
建筑材料行业周报:持续关注二手房对建材需求的影响
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-27 10:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Puhua Co., China Jushi, Beixin Building Materials, and Yuhua Co. [8] Core Insights - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 1.27% from April 21 to April 25, 2025, with specific segments like glass manufacturing and fiberglass manufacturing performing well [1][12] - The report emphasizes the impact of second-hand housing transactions on the demand for building materials, suggesting a positive correlation with consumption stimulus policies [2] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the cement industry, with prices fluctuating around breakeven levels due to increased production cuts [3][17] - Seasonal improvements in glass demand are noted, but there are still supply-demand contradictions, particularly with expectations of declining demand post-2025 [2][28] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential and solid performance, such as Puhua Co. and Yuhua Co. [2][8] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of April 25, 2025, the national cement price index is 388.22 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.17% week-on-week [3][17] - The cement output reached 3.5205 million tons, an increase of 4.85% from the previous week, indicating some recovery in demand [3][17] - The report notes a current market structure of "infrastructure support, housing drag, and civil supplement," with short-term demand unlikely to see significant improvement [17] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1331.75 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24% [28] - Inventory levels for raw glass in 13 provinces decreased by 60,000 boxes, indicating a slight improvement in demand [28] - The report anticipates price fluctuations in the short term due to stable supply and weak demand [28] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is experiencing a stabilization in prices, with the report suggesting that the price war has ended and prices are beginning to recover [2][6] - The demand for wind power fiberglass is expected to increase significantly in 2025, driven by a surge in installation capacity [2][6] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a recommendation for companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials [2][8] - The report indicates a weak recovery in demand for consumer building materials, with upstream raw material prices showing mixed trends [7]
持续关注二手房对建材需求的影响
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-27 09:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Puhua Co., China Jushi, Beixin Building Materials, and Yuhua Co. [8] Core Insights - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 1.27% from April 21 to April 25, 2025, with specific segments like glass manufacturing and fiberglass manufacturing performing well [1][12] - The report emphasizes the impact of second-hand housing transactions on the demand for building materials, suggesting a positive correlation with consumption stimulus policies [2] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the cement industry, with prices fluctuating around break-even levels due to increased production cuts and a focus on cost advantages among leading firms [2][3] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of April 25, 2025, the national cement price index is 388.22 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.17% week-on-week, while the cement output increased by 4.85% to 352.05 million tons [3][17] - The cement market is characterized by strong infrastructure demand but weak residential construction, leading to a challenging environment for cement producers [17][23] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1331.75 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24%, with inventory levels showing a slight decrease [28][31] - The report notes a seasonal improvement in glass demand, although supply-demand imbalances persist, particularly with expectations of declining demand post-2025 [2][28] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is showing signs of recovery, with prices stabilizing after a period of decline, and demand from the wind power sector is expected to increase significantly in 2025 [2][6] - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology due to their growth potential in the fiberglass market [2][8] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is experiencing a weak recovery, with prices of upstream raw materials like asphalt remaining stable [7] - The report suggests that consumer building materials will benefit from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies [2][7] Carbon Fiber Market - The carbon fiber market is stabilizing, with production rates improving and a slight increase in demand expected from sectors like wind energy and hydrogen storage [2][6] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price stabilization in the context of economic recovery [2][6]