随着美国宣布将对进口铜产品征收50%关税，近几个月推动纽约伦敦两地铜溢价持续飙升的关税预期落 地，由此引发纽约铜价周三（7月30日）盘中重挫超20%，终盘收跌近18%。 美国"铜关税"落地美铜回吐溢价 根据美国白宫网站30日发布的事实清单，美国总统特朗普当日签署公告，从8月1日起将对进口的铜半成 品和铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的关税。 不过，从30日的市场表现来看，一方面，此前推动美铜升水飙升的美国进口铜关税政策的预期落地。另 一方面，从公告内容看，这一公告也与特朗普7月9日宣布的将从8月1日起对"所有进口到美国的铜征收 50%的关税"存在差异。在部分海外分析师看来，新宣布的铜关税与市场担心的普遍关税相去甚远。这 也引发了COMEX期铜大幅回吐溢价。 正因为如此，尽管美铜30日重挫，但伦敦3个月期铜则仅小幅收跌不足1%，31日亚洲电子盘交易时段， 伦铜更是一度冲高涨近1%。 随着美国铜关税预期落地，分析人士预计，铜市场价格将回归"理性"。法国兴业银行商品研究主管就表 示，如果电解铜被排除在外，"那么套利空间就没了，（铜）市场价格应会趋于一致"。 五矿期货也在早盘观点中提到，美国铜关税不及预期使得沪铜、伦铜 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on certain imported copper products, effective August 1, which includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [1][3] - The announcement led to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper prices falling over 18% to $4.60 per pound, and major copper producers Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper saw declines of approximately 10% and 6% respectively [1][3] - The new regulations are expected to disrupt global copper trade flows, as refined copper (electrolytic copper) is excluded from the tariff list, which may lead to a re-export of large quantities of copper previously shipped to the U.S. [4][5] Group 2 - Copper is the third most consumed metal globally, following iron and aluminum, with about half of the copper used in the U.S. being imported, primarily from Chile [5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the first half of the year, global iron ore shipments decreased by 0.96% year-on-year. Australian and Brazilian shipments were affected by weather in Q1 and increased in Q2. Non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments decreased significantly year-on-year, and non-mainstream shipments were more affected by ore prices compared to mainstream shipments from Australia and Brazil [2]. - It is expected that the output and shipments of the four major mines will increase in the second half of the year. Rio Tinto and Vale's output/shipments in the first half of the year did not reach half of their guidance targets, while FMG and BHP raised their guidance targets for fiscal year 2026 [2]. - The main contradiction in the black sector lies in the terminal demand for steel, which depends on policy support. The bargaining power of imported iron ore is relatively strong. It is expected that the downside space for iron ore in the second half of the year is limited, and the upside space depends on the trend of steel prices [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron ore shipments in the first half of the year - In H1 2025, the cumulative global iron ore shipments were 778 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.96%. Affected by cyclones in Australia and rainfall in Brazil in Q1, the cumulative shipments were 362 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%. In Q2, shipments increased to make up for the previous shortfall and due to the end - of - quarter rush by Australian mines [3]. - From the source of shipments, the total shipments from Australia and Brazil in H1 were 648 million tons, accounting for 83% of global shipments, with a year-on-year increase of 0.84%. Non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments were only 130 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.09%. Iron ore prices have a greater impact on non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments, and Australian and Brazilian shipments show obvious seasonal patterns [5]. 2. Expected increase in shipments of the four major mines in the second half of the year 2.1 Supply summary in the first half of the year - According to SteelHome data, the cumulative shipments of the four major mines in H1 2025 were 529 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%. Structurally, Rio Tinto and BHP's shipments decreased, FMG's shipments increased significantly, and Vale's shipments increased steadily [6]. - Rio Tinto's 2025 production guidance target remained unchanged. Affected by cyclones and capacity replacement in Q1, its H1 shipments decreased by 5% year-on-year. The Pilbara mine achieved its highest Q2 output since 2018, and the first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was advanced to around November 2025. The品位 of PB mixed ore decreased [8][11]. - FMG's Q2 output and shipments increased significantly quarter-on-quarter. In fiscal year 2025, it shipped 198 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year increase of 4%, achieving its fiscal year target. It raised its 2026 fiscal year guidance target by 5 million tons to 195 - 205 million tons [12][13]. - BHP's Q2 2025 output was 77 million tons, and its fiscal year 2025 output was 290 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%. It raised its 2026 fiscal year guidance target by 2 million tons. It increased shipments in Q2 by optimizing operations [14][15]. - Vale's Q2 output was 83.6 million tons, a significant increase, mainly due to the strong performance of the Southeast and Northern systems. It adjusted its 2025 iron ore pellet target output downwards by 7 million tons due to weak demand [16][18]. 2.2 Supply outlook in the second half of the year - It is expected that the iron ore shipments of the four major mines will increase in the second half of the year. Rio Tinto is expected to speed up production and shipments, with the Xipo and Simandou projects as key sources of growth. FMG is expected to have some room for shipment growth. BHP's output and shipments are expected to remain sufficient. Vale's production is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year [19]. 3. Fundamental analysis 3.1 Domestic ore supply - In H1 2025, China's raw iron ore output was about 509 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. The cumulative output of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 138 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%. Domestically sourced iron accounted for about 19.0% of the total supply [20]. 3.2 Demand - More than half of the steel mills were profitable in H1. The total profit of规上 steel enterprises in H1 was 46.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7 times. However, the revenue of the steel industry decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative crude steel output was 515 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. Steel mills' profits came from cost reduction. High steel mill profits supported high pig iron production and thus iron ore demand [21]. 3.3 Inventory - In H1, the inventory pressure on steel mills and ports was small. Steel mills' inventory was below 100 million tons after the Spring Festival, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was around 30. The inventory of imported iron ore decreased by about 3 million tons year-on-year. The inventory at 47 ports decreased from about 156 million tons at the beginning of the year to 144 million tons by July, 14 million tons lower than last year [24][26]. 4. Future outlook - In Q1, iron ore prices were relatively firm. In Q2, coking coal prices rebounded, but iron ore price increases were limited. In July, affected by policy expectations, funds flowed into coking coal. The main contradiction in the black sector lies in steel terminal demand, which depends on policy support. In the second half of the year, iron ore supply is expected to be strong, demand depends on policies, and inventory pressure is not large. The downside space for iron ore is limited, and the upside space depends on steel prices [27][30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive domestic macro - policies, market sentiment remains cautious in the short - term due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Low domestic inventory limits the decline of copper prices, but the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand expectations. Short - term copper prices are expected to show a volatile trend, pending the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic spot TC stabilizes at a low level of - 43. Japanese smelters are having difficult negotiations with Antofagasta on processing fees and cannot accept the extremely low conditions reached by Chinese smelters and Antofagasta. Domestic enterprise operating rates are declining, and the spot market is sluggish due to high prices. Last week, the copper rod operating rate was 69.4%, a 4.9% week - on - week decrease, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate was 70.83%, a 2.0% week - on - week decrease. Copper price increases suppress purchasing sentiment, and orders decrease in the off - season. Enterprises mainly rely on previous long - term orders to maintain operations, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly this week [4] 2. Inventory - Domestic inventory is being depleted. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is 11.4 tons, a 20.3% week - on - week decrease [4] 3. Macro - environment - On July 25, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in July rebounded to 49.8%, rising for two consecutive months, and the production index reached 51.7%. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to local areas last week to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones. The US plan to impose tariffs on copper is approaching on August 1, and market trading is cautious. US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that China and the US will hold a new round of trade negotiations in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday [4] 4. Market Trends - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, it continued the upward trend driven by the macro news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the previous Friday, and declined slightly in the second half of the week. The closing price on Friday was 79,250 yuan/ton, about 1% higher than the previous week [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in chemical coke and manganese ore prices are impacting the cost structure and market performance of manganese silicon production, with expectations of significant price volatility in the near future [1] Price Changes and Cost Analysis - Chemical coke prices increased by 100 yuan/ton, while port manganese ore prices saw a slight uptick, leading to higher immediate costs [1] - Estimated production costs as of July 25 are approximately 5710 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5800 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (with a loss of about 100 yuan/ton), and 6460 yuan/ton in Guangxi (with a loss of about 740 yuan/ton) [1] - Actual costs in production areas may be reduced by 100-200 yuan/ton due to adjustments in manganese ore ratios and tail gas power generation [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From July 19 to July 24, Tianjin Port received 451,924 tons of manganese ore, with a slight inventory increase of 989.7 tons, totaling 3,336,474 tons, which is below expectations [1] - Anticipated arrivals from July 25 to July 31 are 607,041 tons, with an estimated inventory increase of 100,000 to 200,000 tons based on typical outflow rates [1] - National daily production of silicon manganese as of July 25 is reported at 26,640 tons, with increases noted in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan [1] Market Pricing and Export Data - Hebei Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,850 yuan/ton for July, with the first round of inquiries at 5,600 yuan/ton and a purchase volume of 14,600 tons, an increase from June [1] - In June 2025, China exported 1,151.6 tons of silicon manganese alloy and imported 685.73 tons [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The black metal sector is experiencing upward pressure due to rising coking coal prices, while manganese silicon prices have shown mixed reactions, with significant inflows of capital observed [1] - The market is currently driven more by speculative factors rather than fundamental changes, with profit margins encouraging manufacturers and traders to hedge [1] - The overall market sentiment remains uncertain, with expectations of significant price fluctuations for manganese silicon on July 28, necessitating caution among investors [1]

Core Insights - The company, First Quantum, shipped 8,248 tons of copper inventory from Panama in June [1] Company Summary - First Quantum's copper shipment volume indicates active production and distribution capabilities [1]

Market News - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.04%, the Nasdaq up 0.38%, and the S&P 500 up 0.14%. The metals and mining sectors saw significant gains, with Century Aluminum rising over 9% and Americas Silver and Pan American Silver up nearly 5% [1] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.55% at $3410.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.02% at $39.24 per ounce. International oil prices slightly declined, with WTI crude down 0.41% at $65.78 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.36% at $69.03 per barrel [1] - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX up 0.08% at 24307.8 points, France's CAC40 down 0.31% at 7798.22 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.23% at 9012.99 points [1] Industry Insights - The implementation of cross-border asset management pilot business in Hainan Free Trade Port aims to enhance cross-border securities investment and exchange convenience for foreign investors. This initiative supports investment in various financial products and is expected to attract asset management institutions to Hainan [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that Yushu Technology has begun its listing guidance with CITIC Securities as the advisor. Several leading robotics companies are planning to go public, which may drive technological innovation and capacity expansion in the sector [3] - The first International Low Altitude Economy Expo will be held from July 23 to 26 in Shanghai, showcasing over 300 exhibitors and revolutionary breakthroughs in low-altitude technology, particularly in drones and eVTOLs. The event will feature numerous global and national product launches [4][5] - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, driven by applications in logistics, tourism, and emergency services. This sector is becoming a new growth engine for urban economies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to continue using part of its temporarily idle raised funds for cash management to improve fund management efficiency without affecting the construction of fundraising projects [1][6]. Fundraising Basic Situation - The company issued 693,009,118 shares at a price of 3.29 RMB per share, raising a total of approximately 2.28 billion RMB, with a net amount of about 2.27 billion RMB after deducting issuance costs [1][2]. Reasons for Idle Funds - As of June 2025, the company had a balance of 565 million RMB in raised funds, with cumulative usage of 1.736 billion RMB, including 1.114 billion RMB for previous projects and 70 million RMB for 2025 projects [3][5]. Previous Cash Management - By the end of June 2025, the company had used 445 million RMB of temporarily idle funds for cash management, which was within the approved limit of 450 million RMB [3][4]. Current Cash Management Plan - The company aims to use up to 450 million RMB of idle funds for cash management, with a usage period of 12 months from the board's approval date [5][6]. Investment Products and Safety - The company will invest idle funds in low-risk products such as time deposits, large certificates of deposit, and 7-day notice deposits to ensure safety [5][6]. Decision-Making Process - The board of directors approved the cash management plan, and the sponsor provided a special verification opinion confirming compliance with regulations [6][8].

Group 1 - The company expects a significant loss in the first half of 2025, with total profit estimated to be a loss of 190 million to 230 million yuan, compared to a profit of 168.53 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 180 million to 220 million yuan, down from a profit of 137.31 million yuan in the previous year [1] - The operating revenue is expected to be between 4.13 billion and 4.20 billion yuan, a decrease from 7.16 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to a decrease in the prices of vanadium and titanium products compared to the previous year, with a net profit decrease of approximately 317 million to 357 million yuan [1] - The company is actively responding to market changes by adjusting its product mix to mitigate the impact of falling prices [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.06%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.76% [1] - The innovative drug sector saw significant gains, with Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) rising over 15% and China Biologic Products (01177.HK) increasing by more than 10% [1] - Education stocks strengthened during the midday session, with China Oriental Education (00667.HK) up over 3% [1] Group 2 - Rare earth stocks rebounded towards the end of the trading day, with Jinli Permanent Magnet rising over 2% [1] - Other sectors such as cement and building materials, biomedicine, environmental protection, and oil saw gains [1] - Gold, stablecoins, nuclear power, non-ferrous metals, and chips experienced declines during the day [1] Group 3 - On the individual stock front, Lens Technology (06613.HK) rose 9% on its first trading day, while "Jay Chou concept stock" Superstar Legend (06683.HK) surged 94%, surpassing a market capitalization of 10 billion HKD [1] - Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) fell by over 5% [1]