11月24日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜企稳，交易商称市场预期美国下月将降息以及美元 走软支撑了市场人气。 伦敦时间11月24日17:00(北京时间11月25日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌4.5美元，或0.04%，收报每吨 10,773.0美元。10月29日一度触及11,200美元的历史新高，因对供应和短缺的担忧加剧。 | | 11月24日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张紫幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,773.00 ↓ | -4.50 ↓ -0.04% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.812.00 ↑ | +26.00 ↑ +0.93% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,000.00 ↑ | +11.00 ↑ +0.37% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,984.00 | -1.00 J -0.05% | | 三个月期镇 | 14,699.00 ↑ | +244.00 ↑ +1.69% | | 三个月期锡 | 37,384.00 ↑ | +489.00 ↑ +1.33% | 数据来源：文华财经 从技术角度来看，铜价阻 ...

WisdomTree大宗商品策略师Nitesh Shah表示，对需求疲软的担忧持续存在。 周四的海关数据显示，中国2025年10月精炼铜进口量为323,144.72吨，环比下降13.62%，同比下降 16.32%。 | | 11月20日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 张跃 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,738.50 = -14.00 ↓ -0.13% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.814.00 ↑ +13.00 ↑ +0.46% | | 三个月期锌 | 3.016.00 ↑ +35.00 ↑ +1.17% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,010.50 -4.50 ↓ -0.22% | | 三个月期镇 | 14,501.00 - - 149.00 -1.02% | | 三个月期锡 | 37,068.00 ↑ +115.00 ↑ +0.31% | 数据来源：文华财经 LME期铜今年以来上涨约22%，但从10月29日创下的11,200美元纪录高位回落。 11月20日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜下跌，受累于美元走强和对需求疲软的担忧。 美元持坚， ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices increased slightly, while other base metals mostly declined, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the reopening of the U.S. government [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On November 13, LME three-month copper rose by $12, or 0.11%, closing at $10,956 per ton [2]. - During the trading session, copper prices briefly surpassed the psychological threshold of $11,000, reaching $11,018 per ton for the first time this month before retracting [1]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum increased by $2, or 0.07%, closing at $2,896.50 per ton [2]. - In contrast, three-month zinc decreased by $20, or 0.65%, to $3,055.00 per ton, and three-month lead fell by $17.50, or 0.84%, to $2,078.00 per ton [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Analysts emphasize that strong demand, particularly from major consumer countries, is crucial for sustaining price increases [4]. - Investors are awaiting key economic data from China, including new home prices, retail sales, and industrial output [5]. - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President noted mixed economic signals, with inflation around 3% and pressures in certain labor market sectors [5]. Group 4: Aluminum Price Forecast - ANZ raised its short-term aluminum price target from $2,700 to $2,900 per ton due to strong demand from manufacturing, construction, and automotive sectors [5]. - The bank forecasts aluminum prices could reach $3,000 per ton by June 2026, driven by tightening supply against rising demand [5].

Group 1 - LME copper prices continued to decline due to weak demand expectations, a strong dollar, and profit-taking after reaching record highs [1] - As of October 31, LME three-month copper fell by $29.5, or 0.27%, closing at $10,887.5 per ton, marking a drop for the second consecutive day after hitting $11,200 [1][2] - In October, copper prices have increased by $619, or 6.03%, marking the third consecutive month of gains [3] Group 2 - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0% in October, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1% [5] - ING's commodity strategist noted that the sentiment in the base metals market is poor, with supply disruptions expected to keep prices around $10,000 per ton, but strong demand growth is needed for further price increases [5] - Citigroup analysts remain optimistic about copper prices, predicting an increase by 2026 due to cyclical demand expectations and constrained mine supply [5] - A stronger dollar index has added pressure to the market, making dollar-denominated assets more expensive for holders of other currencies [5] - Marex warned that copper prices may further decline, suggesting caution as some indicators hint at potential price corrections [5]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw most base metals decline, with copper hitting a one-week low, influenced by concerns over credit pressures in U.S. regional banks, leading to a negative sentiment in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 17, LME three-month copper fell by $42.5, or 0.4%, closing at $10,604.5 per ton, with an intraday low of $10,430, marking a 2% drop and the lowest since October 10 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $11.00 (0.39%), zinc down by $39.50 (1.33%), and tin down by $735.00 (2.05%) [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Copper is viewed as a barometer for the global economy, with recent supply concerns pushing prices to a 16-month high of $11,000 per ton last week [1]. - Recent reports indicate a temporary easing of supply concerns, as copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 550 tons, reaching the highest level since April [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The environment is characterized by a general risk aversion, with high-risk assets under pressure due to concerns over the U.S. economic situation [4]. - The spread between spot copper contracts and three-month forward contracts widened, indicating a decrease in immediate demand for copper [4].

Core Insights - LME copper prices experienced a slight increase, supported by a weaker dollar, but market sentiment was dampened by trade tensions and ongoing U.S. government shutdown uncertainties [1][4] - Concerns over supply tightness due to mining disruptions pushed copper prices to a 16-month high of $11,000 per ton last week [1] Price Movements - LME three-month copper rose by $6, or 0.06%, closing at $10,647 per ton [2] - Other base metals also saw price changes, with three-month aluminum increasing by $42.5 (1.55%) to $2,788.5 per ton, and three-month zinc rising by $25 (0.85%) to $2,973 per ton [2] Economic Impact - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown could lead to economic losses of up to $15 billion per week, putting pressure on the dollar [4] - Concerns regarding manufacturing growth and demand have led some companies betting on rising copper prices to reduce their positions [4] Market Outlook - Analysts from Goldman Sachs expect the market to remain in a temporary surplus, with current high copper prices reflecting investor optimism for 2026, driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence [4] - Significant increases in copper demand are anticipated in data centers and power infrastructure investments over the coming years [4] Aluminum Market - Concerns about tightness in the LME aluminum market have led to spot contracts trading at a premium over three-month aluminum, with premiums rising to over $21 per ton, the highest since February [4]

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices increased by $232.5, or 2.28%, closing at $10,414.0 per ton on September 29, driven by a weaker dollar and concerns over global supply due to an incident at the Grasberg copper mine [1][3] - The Grasberg mine has been suspended since September 8 following a fatal landslide, leading analysts to lower supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The copper market is expected to remain supported due to tightening conditions caused by disruptions at the Grasberg mine [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum prices rose by $23.5, or 0.88%, to $2,679.0 per ton, while zinc prices increased by $52.0, or 1.80%, to $2,940.5 per ton [2] - Tin prices surged by $987.0, or 2.86%, closing at $35,490.0 per ton, reaching a high not seen since April 4 [4] Group 3: Industry Growth Projections - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The plan includes goals for a 1.5% average annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals, with significant progress expected in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $56, or 0.56%, closing at $9,940.00 per ton, marking the lowest level since September 10 [1] - The decline in copper prices was attributed to profit-taking by traders following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement and the subsequent strengthening of the US dollar [1][4] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 97.46, although it remains down approximately 10.2% year-to-date, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies [4] Group 2 - Among base metals, aluminum was the only one to see an increase, rising by $1.50, or 0.06%, to $2,684.50 per ton due to supply tightness [4] - LME three-month zinc prices decreased by $27, or 0.92%, closing at $2,916.50 per ton [5] - LME three-month lead prices fell by $6.50, or 0.32%, to $2,006.00 per ton [6] - LME three-month nickel prices dropped by $133, or 0.86%, to $15,272.00 per ton [7] - LME three-month tin prices decreased by $634, or 1.85%, to $33,711.00 per ton, reaching the lowest level since August 22 [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - On September 17, LME copper prices fell to a one-week low as traders reduced positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with demand from major metal-consuming countries being suppressed due to recent copper price increases [1][4] - LME three-month copper dropped by $130.5, or 1.29%, closing at $9,996.0 per ton, still above the 21-day moving average support level at $9,912 [1][2] - The copper price had previously reached a 15-month high of $10,192.50 per ton on Monday [1] Group 2: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum decreased by $34, or 1.25%, closing at $2,683.0 per ton, after hitting a six-month high of $2,720 [2][5] - LME three-month zinc fell by $48.5, or 1.62%, closing at $2,943.5 per ton [2][6] - LME three-month lead increased by $2.5, or 0.12%, closing at $2,012.5 per ton [2][7] - LME three-month nickel declined by $23, or 0.15%, closing at $15,405.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month tin dropped by $536, or 1.54%, closing at $34,345.0 per ton [2][9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influences - Alastair Munro from Marex noted that China acted as a seller in the copper market this week, with a lack of systemic buying and bearish mean reversion sell signals contributing to the overall weakness in copper prices [4] - Neil Welsh from Britannia Global Markets indicated that traders are not only focused on the expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve but are also awaiting clarity on future policy directions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a five-month high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and concerns over potential supply shortages [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On September 12, LME three-month copper rose by $16, or 0.16%, closing at $10,067.50 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,126, the highest since March 26 [1][2]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by approximately 15%, but have struggled to maintain levels above the psychological threshold of $10,000 [4]. - Concerns over supply are significant, particularly with the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remaining suspended due to ongoing rescue operations for trapped workers [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum increased by $16, or 0.6%, closing at $2,689.50 per ton [2][6]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $57, or 1.97%, closing at $2,957.00 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21, or 1.05%, closing at $2,017.50 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $241, or 1.59%, closing at $15,391.00 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month tin increased by $277, or 0.8%, closing at $34,975.00 per ton [2][10]. Group 3: Production Insights - Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, saw a 2% year-on-year decline in copper production in July, dropping to 228,007 tons [5].