Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the historical significance of tin mining in Malaysia's Perak state, particularly in the Kinta Valley, and the contributions of Chinese miners to the industry and local economy [1][3][6]. Group 1: Historical Context - The discovery of tin ore in 1848 marked the beginning of a significant mining industry in the Kinta Valley, attracting merchants, capital, and labor [1][2]. - By the late 19th century, the tin production in the Malay Peninsula reached the highest global output, with Perak being the heart of this mining activity [3]. Group 2: Contributions of Chinese Miners - Chinese miners played a crucial role in the development of the tin mining industry, bringing advanced mining techniques and a steady labor supply [2][3]. - The integration of Chinese capital and labor, along with support from local Malay leaders, transformed the region into the world's largest tin mining area by the late 19th century [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Decline - The tin mining industry significantly contributed to the economic development of Malaysia, transitioning it from a jungle-covered land to a prosperous economy [3]. - The 1980s saw a decline in the tin industry due to global economic downturns and the rise of alternative materials, leading to mine closures and unemployment [3]. Group 4: Cultural Significance - The legacy of tin mining is being preserved through cultural initiatives, including the establishment of museums and the promotion of tin-related crafts [6][7]. - Local narratives emphasize the importance of remembering the contributions of miners, with efforts to document their history for future generations [7].

Market Overview - Tin is a globally priced commodity, but it is considered a small commodity compared to copper and aluminum due to its limited presence in the Earth's crust [1] - The global distribution of tin resources is concentrated in China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Australia, with limited new mines in recent years leading to low supply elasticity [1] - The supply disruptions, particularly after Myanmar's ban on tin mining in August 2023, have significantly impacted the market [1] Price Trends - In the first phase from January to early April 2025, tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose from 240,000 yuan/ton to a peak of 299,990 yuan/ton, marking a 25% increase due to supply disruptions from Africa and Myanmar [2] - Following this, prices fell over 13% to around 260,000 yuan/ton due to negative market sentiment and the announcement of tariffs by the U.S. [2][4] - The lowest price recorded in 2025 was 235,000 yuan/ton, influenced by the resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][4] Supply Dynamics - Myanmar is the third-largest tin producer globally, contributing 15%-20% of the total supply, with the Wa region accounting for 90% of its production [4] - After the ban on mining in Myanmar, China's tin ore imports have significantly declined, with May 2025 imports at 13,400 tons, a 36.39% month-on-month increase but a 36.51% year-on-year decrease [5] - The supply situation remains tight, with domestic smelting fees declining and production affected by raw material shortages [7] Recovery Challenges - The recovery of tin mining in Myanmar has faced delays due to various factors, including rising costs of essential materials and a decrease in ore quality [10] - The resumption of operations in Myanmar is crucial for supply recovery, but the process is slow and complicated by external factors such as natural disasters and policy changes [9][10] Demand Factors - The global semiconductor market is experiencing cyclical changes, with a slowdown in growth expected in 2025, impacting demand for tin in electronics [13] - Domestic consumption of electronic products is also weak, with smartphone shipments showing only modest growth [15] - The overall demand for tin is being suppressed by high prices and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [17] Future Outlook - The core issue in the tin market remains the supply side, with a tight supply situation expected to persist in the short term due to slow recovery in Myanmar [21] - The second half of 2025 will be critical for assessing the recovery of tin supply, particularly from Myanmar and Africa [21] - Short-term price stability is anticipated, but a downward trend may emerge as supply conditions improve [21]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is currently experiencing supply tightness due to various factors, including the suspension of mining in Myanmar and geopolitical tensions affecting production in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The market is sensitive to any supply-related news, which can lead to significant price fluctuations. Supply Situation - The tin supply has been under pressure since the suspension of mining in Myanmar on August 1, 2023, leading to a tight global supply situation. The import volume of tin ore to China has sharply declined since the second quarter of last year due to depleting inventories [1][3] - The Alphamin Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is a significant source of tin for China, has faced production interruptions due to local conflicts, resulting in a supply gap of approximately 2,000 to 3,000 tons [3][4] - The processing fees for tin concentrate in China are at historical lows, indicating severe profit margin pressures for smelting companies [4][6] Production and Processing Challenges - The production of refined tin in China has decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year as of May 2025, with smelting plants operating at reduced capacity due to raw material shortages [6][7] - The operating rate of smelting enterprises in key tin-producing provinces like Yunnan and Jiangxi remains low, with some companies entering seasonal maintenance or production cuts due to raw material shortages and cost pressures [6][7] Demand Dynamics - The demand for tin is expected to face challenges as the market enters a seasonal slowdown, with potential declines in consumption in the second half of the year [8][13] - The semiconductor industry, which has been a significant driver of tin demand, is experiencing cyclical changes, with sales expected to slow down after a peak in late 2024 [9][13] - The solar energy sector has seen increased demand for tin solder, but the growth rate may slow down after the implementation of new market rules for distributed solar projects [11][12] Future Outlook - The tin market is anticipated to remain slightly tight in the short term, with limited increases in supply expected in June. However, the situation may improve as the supply from African mines and the resumption of mining in Myanmar are monitored [7][13] - Long-term demand for tin may see an uptick if the AI industry continues to grow, potentially leading to a mismatch between supply growth and demand resilience [13]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Overall, there are not many new tin mine projects outside Asia, and the incremental output is lackluster. The main variable for tin mine supply in 2025 still lies in whether the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar can resume production smoothly. Currently, it seems only a matter of time for the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines. In 2025, tin mine production in Indonesia is also expected to further recover, and tin mine supply may gradually shift from shortage to abundance within the next year [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Africa's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Africa's total tin mine production exceeded 40,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 23%. The increment was mainly contributed by the Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa). Tin mine production in other African regions also increased, with year - on - year growth rates of 41% and 59% in Nigeria and Rwanda respectively [4]. - The Bisie mine operated by Alphamin in Congo (Kinshasa) achieved a stable annual output. After the new Mpama South concentrator was put into production in May 2024 and gradually reached full capacity, the annual output is expected to reach about 8,500 tons in the next few years. In 2024, Congo (Kinshasa)'s tin mine production reached 25,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the company's tin output is expected to be reduced from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons, with the annual total output remaining basically the same as last year [4]. - The Uis tin mine in Namibia is one of the world's largest tin mines. After being acquired by Afri Tin in 2018, it was rebuilt in two phases. Currently, the annual output is about 1,000 tons. In 2024, with investment from Orion Resource Partners, the company plans to expand tin production to 1,600 metal tons per year [5]. South America's Major Tin Mine Projects - In the 20th century, South America was a major tin - producing region globally. The main tin - producing countries are Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. In 2024, Peru's tin mine production exceeded 32,000 tons, a 23.2% year - on - year increase, thanks to a 17% increase in the output of the San Rafael mine of Minsur [9]. - Brazil's Pitinga mine has a large resource volume, but its output has been declining in recent years due to environmental policies and the crackdown on illegal mining. Bolivia mainly has state - owned smelting, and in 2024, its tin mine production increased by 8.6% year - on - year to 20,000 tons [9][13]. - Peru's San Rafael tin mine is the world's third - largest. In 2024, its tin mine output reached 24,400 tons. In 2025 Q1, the cash cost per ton of tin decreased significantly, by 34% year - on - year to $7,235 per ton [13]. - Brazil's tin mine output ranked sixth in the world in 2024, with 19,000 tons. The Pitinga tin mine has a resource reserve of 585,700 tons. In 2024, its tin output was 6,497 tons. Bolivia's tin production has remained stable around 20,000 tons since the 21st century, and in 2025, it was 21,000 tons [14]. Australia's Major Tin Mine Projects - In 2024, Australia's tin concentrate production increased by 17% to 11,000 tons, thanks to the good performance of the Renison mine of Metals X. The Ardlethan tailings project is in pilot production, and the annual output is expected to reach 1,000 - 2,000 tons after full capacity [19]. - The Renison tin mine is a joint - venture between Metals X and Yunnan Tin Group. The average full - life - cycle cost per ton of tin is estimated to be A$26,247. The Ardlethan tin mine is owned by EOE, a subsidiary of ATR. If the pilot production of the tin tailings project is successful, the company plans to expand the processing plant's capacity to 150 tons per hour, and the annual output is expected to reach 2,000 tons [19][21]. Overall Global Tin Mine Supply Outlook in 2025 - The total global tin mine production in 2024 was 278,700 tons, and it is expected to reach 294,100 tons in 2025, with an increment of 15,400 tons. The main variables affecting supply are the resumption of the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar and the recovery of production in Indonesia [24][25].

Group 1 - Indonesia's progress in converting illegal tin mining assets to legal operations may help alleviate global supply tightness for tin, a critical material for lithium-ion batteries [1] - The Indonesian government seized five smelting plants involved in illegal mining in April, which accounted for half of the country's refining capacity [1][2] - The expected resumption of operations at these smelting plants is anticipated to increase supply in the tight market, with production projected to recover through 2025 and beyond [1][4] Group 2 - Due to the seizures, Indonesia's refined tin production is expected to decline by 30.7% in 2024, reaching 49,900 tons, marking a 20-year low [2] - Prior to the crackdown, Indonesia's annual refined tin production was at least 72,000 tons from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The government has expanded the SIMBARA tracking platform to monitor tin from mines to exports, indicating a significant shift in the industry [4] Group 3 - Analysts emphasize that while the government's recent actions are a positive step, sustained and effective enforcement will be crucial for lasting impact [5] - Regulatory hurdles are limiting producers' ability to increase output, as the new RKAB system has slowed the approval process for mining production and sales quotas [5][6] - The developments in Indonesia are expected to increase volatility in the tin market, with a projected global refined tin supply deficit of 7,600 tons by 2025 [7][8] Group 4 - Despite the recovery in Indonesian supply, other regions still face supply disruptions, indicating ongoing challenges in the global tin market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The International Tin Association's chief representative announced that the Wa State in Myanmar has been officially permitted to fully resume tin mining operations by late April 2025, and the industry is currently in a gradual recovery phase [1] Group 1 - The Wa State in Myanmar has received official approval to restart tin mining operations [1] - The resumption of tin mining is expected to contribute to the gradual recovery of the industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming period [4]. Core Insights - The tin ore production in Q1 2025 decreased by 40% year-on-year to 3,215 tons, with a guidance for 2025 indicating a 10.6% increase in tin ore production to 21,500 tons [1][6]. - The average selling price of refined tin increased by 20% to $32,495 per metric ton compared to $27,071 per metric ton in the previous year [2][7]. - The company achieved a net profit of 116.86 billion Indonesian Rupiah in Q1 2025, exceeding its target by 20% [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In Q1 2025, the total production of tin ore was 3,215 tons, down from 5,360 tons in Q1 2024, with onshore production at 1,598 tons (down 51%) and offshore production at 1,617 tons (down 23%) [1][7]. - The production of refined tin was 3,095 tons, a decrease of 31% from 4,475 tons in the same quarter last year [2][7]. - Refined tin sales were 2,874 tons, down 18% from 3,524 tons year-on-year [2][7]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 21 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, a 2.1% increase from 20.6 trillion Indonesian Rupiah in Q1 2024, attributed to the rise in average tin prices [3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was 148 billion Indonesian Rupiah, up from 93 billion Indonesian Rupiah in Q1 2024 [3]. - The company's total assets decreased by 2% to 12.49 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, while liabilities fell by 9% to 4.85 trillion Indonesian Rupiah [5]. 2025 Guidance - The company anticipates that the average price of tin metal in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, driven by increased demand from electronics and advancements in digital technology [6]. - Key targets for 2025 include tin ore production of 21,500 tons (up 10.6%), refined tin production of 21,545 tons (up 13.9%), and sales of refined tin at 19,065 tons (up 8.9%) [6].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The tin ore supply in Asia may shift from shortage to surplus within the next year as projects come online, but in the short term, the supply situation depends on the resumption of production at the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar [2][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Tin Ore Distribution - In 2023, the world's publicly disclosed tin ore reserves were about 4.3 million tons, mainly concentrated in a few countries. China ranked first with 1.1 million tons, accounting for about 26% of the world's known reserves; Myanmar followed with 700,000 tons, accounting for about 16.3%. Australia and Russia had reserves of 620,000 tons and 460,000 tons, respectively, accounting for 14.5% and 10.8% [4]. - In 2024, global tin ore production was 296,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. Asia, Africa, and South America were the main tin ore - producing regions. China, Indonesia, and Myanmar produced 69,000 tons, 50,000 tons, and 34,000 tons respectively, accounting for 23%, 17%, and 12% of the global supply [4]. China's Major Tin Ore Projects Yinman Mining - Yinman Mining, a subsidiary of Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxing Mining Co., Ltd., has tin ore resources of 195,600 tons with an average tin grade of 0.74%. After a technical transformation in 2023, the ore grade increased from 0.76% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023, and the beneficiation recovery rate increased from 50% to 60%. In 2024, the company's tin metal output reached about 8,900 tons [6][11]. - The Yinman Phase II project was approved at the beginning of this year. The project scale will be expanded from 1.65 million tons/year to 2.97 million tons/year. After completion, the production capacity and output are expected to double, with silver reaching over 360 tons and tin over 16,000 tons [11]. Huaxi Non - ferrous - Huaxi Non - ferrous is the only state - owned non - ferrous metal listed platform in Guangxi. It operates three mines, with a total of 238,000 tons of tin metal reserves [16]. - The Tongkeng Mine, the company's main mine, is promoting a project to develop tin - zinc ore resources, with a new production capacity of 1.65 million tons/year, mainly producing zinc, and the total mine production capacity will exceed 3 million tons in the future [16]. - The Gaofeng Tin Mine is promoting the deep - mining project of the 105th ore body. After completion, the production capacity of the 105th ore body will increase to 450,000 tons/year. In 2023, the mine produced 4,451 tons of tin concentrate [17]. Indonesia PT Timah - In 2024, after obtaining the export license, PT Timah's production recovered rapidly. As of the third quarter of 2024, its tin ore output was 15,189 tons, a 36% increase compared to the same period in 2023; tin metal output increased by 25% to 14,440 tons; and tin metal sales increased by 21% to 13,441 tons. In 2025, the company plans to increase ore output from 19,437 tons to 21,500 tons and tin metal output from 18,915 tons to 21,545 tons [21]. Myanmar Manxiang Tin Mine - Myanmar's tin ore resources are mainly concentrated in the W邦 Manxiang Mining Area, which accounted for over 90% of the country's output. The mine has been shut down for nearly 20 months. A symposium on resuming production was held on April 23, 2025. It is estimated that it will take at least two months to fully resume normal mining [22][26][27]. Malaysia MSC - Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) is an important integrated producer of tin metal and tin - based products in Malaysia. In 2023, the tin concentrate output of its RHT project was nearly 26,000 tons, and the tin ingot output of the Pulau plant was 20,700 tons. Since the RHT project is mature and has no expansion plan, there will be no significant increase in tin supply in the short term [28][31]. Kazakhstan Syrymbet Mine - The Syrymbet Mine in Kazakhstan has total resources of 483,000 tons and reserves of 145,000 tons, with an average grade of 0.4%. The project is expected to have an annual output of about 6,500 tons of tin concentrate. It is expected to be completed, commissioned, and even launched in 2025, but the actual commissioning time is unknown [32].