1月8日，步入2026年1月，全球金融市场呈现出极为活跃的交易态势。Radex Markets 瑞德克斯观察到， 贵金属板块在新年伊始便展现出强劲的"多头势能"，周一开盘留下的巨大向上跳空缺口不仅未被回补， 反而成为了价格进一步攀升的踏板。目前，现货黄金已第二次向 4500 美元/盎司的关键心理关口发起强 力冲击，地缘局势的突发波动促使避险资金如潮水般涌入大宗商品市场。 在这种避险情绪的带动下，白银的表现甚至盖过了黄金的光芒。Radex Markets 瑞德克斯表示，白银自 本周初以来的累计涨幅已超过 10%，昨日收盘更是稳稳站上 80 美元/盎司的重要关口。与此同时，工业 金属也并未缺席这场盛宴，铂金与钯金正以极高的相关性跟随白银上行。而在全球基建预期与工业复苏 的逻辑支撑下，铜期货价格也于昨日触及 6 美元/磅的历史巅峰。 针对能源市场的疲软表现，原油价格与金属价格的走势背离反映了市场对供需基本面的不同定价。尽管 外界扰动不断，但布伦特原油（BRENT）已回落至 60 美元/桶附近。随着美国宣布将从委内瑞拉接收 多达 5000 万桶的原油交付，这种"超预期供应"无疑给市场蒙上了阴影。Radex Marke ...

证书编号：S0790524030002 jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 春季躁动提前开启，结构先行特征鲜明，科技占优条件依然未变 2026 年 01 月 04 日 掘金 1 月春季躁动的机会 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 我们在 11.30 的报告《提前布局春季躁动》当中指出：近期市场出现了一定的调 整，但我们认为当下已经可以更加积极。我们在 12.21 提出，当前可以进一步积 极的原因还有：前期市场调整的 3 大因素影响都在减弱：其一为海外流动性扰动， 美联储降息对冲了日本加息的冲击；其二为美股财报窗口下 AI 泡沫论的风险溢 出得到改善，无需恐慌；其三为近期出炉的经济数据相对温和，叠加中央经济工 作会议并未有显著超预期的点，但我们认为，人民币汇率持续升值或代表全球投 资者对中国经济信心仍然充足，证伪此担忧。 当前 A 股市场已正式进入 2026 年"春季躁动"的预热与布局窗口。与过往普涨 行情不同，本轮躁动在宏观经济数据尚待验证、增量资金稳步入场的背景下，呈 现出鲜明的"结构先行、机会 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index and its ETF, indicating a positive trend with a 0.87% increase in the index and a 0.83% rise in the ETF, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - The top-performing stocks within the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index include Jiewa Technology, Huafeng Technology, and Zhongke Feimeng, with respective increases of 13.31%, 11.77%, and 6.78% [1] - Samsung has launched the world's first 2nm process smartphone application processor, the Exynos 2600, which features a new 10-core CPU design and claims a performance improvement of up to 39% [1] Group 2 - The technology sector remains the core theme of the current bull market, with the semiconductor cycle showing an upward resonance pattern driven by sustained demand for AI computing power [2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index ETF has seen a significant scale increase of 1.46 billion yuan over the past week, ranking second among comparable funds [2] - The ETF has also experienced a notable increase in shares, with a growth of 1.14 million shares over the past two weeks, again ranking second among comparable funds [2] Group 3 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index account for 26.72% of the index, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor and East China Semiconductor leading the list [3] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index ETF is closely tracking the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index, which selects 100 securities with medium market capitalization and good liquidity from the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that the traditional DRAM market is experiencing a significant shift due to a supply squeeze, leading to enhanced pricing power and profitability for traditional DRAM, which is expected to surpass HBM margins starting in Q2 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in industry capacity towards HBM has resulted in a tightening supply of traditional DRAM, while demand remains robust, creating a mismatch that drives up pricing power [7]. - UBS forecasts that traditional DRAM gross margins will reach 67% in Q2 2026, surpassing HBM's 62% for the first time, with margins expected to further increase to 71% in Q3 and 75% in Q4 [5][11]. Group 2: Financial Projections - For Q1 FY2026, traditional DRAM revenue is projected to be $8.22 billion, with a mere 1% increase in shipment volume but a significant 16% rise in average selling price [5]. - UBS's revenue and EPS forecasts for Micron in Q1 FY2026 are significantly higher than management's guidance, driven primarily by improved pricing [12]. Group 3: HBM Business Outlook - Although HBM remains a core growth story for Micron, UBS anticipates a slowdown in HBM revenue growth due to capacity constraints, with Q1 FY2026 HBM revenue expected to grow approximately 35% quarter-over-quarter [8]. - For the full year, UBS estimates HBM revenue will reach $13.05 billion in FY2026 and increase to $21.24 billion in FY2027, with HBM's share of total revenue rising from 17% in FY2025 to 26% in FY2027 [11]. Group 4: Long-term Market Trends - UBS emphasizes that the current semiconductor cycle may last longer than market expectations due to HBM's significant consumption of wafer capacity, effectively creating a "crowding out" effect on the traditional storage market [11][12]. - The report indicates that the structural supply shortage provides a durable competitive advantage for major players like Micron [11].

到2026年第二季度，这一历史性逆转将发生，传统DRAM毛利率预计达67%，首次超越 HBM的62%。此后这一优势将持续扩大，第三季度传统DRAM毛利率将达71%，第四季度 更是高达75%。 瑞银表示，尽管市场对美光HBM业务的关注度极高，但传统的DDR内存正因产能挤压而迎来前所未有 的利润率爆发。 据追风交易台，瑞银在最新的报告中表示，内存行业正迎来结构性转变。在AI热潮席卷全球之际，由 于产能挤压，美光"旧时代"的DDR内存业务的盈利能力即将反超其明星产品HBM（高带宽内存）。 具体来看，瑞银表示，管理层最新表态显示供应紧张程度较三个月前加剧并延长，这将持续支撑定价能 力，传统DRAM毛利率有望达到67%的历史高位。 瑞银预计2026财年第二季度毛利率将达60.8%，较公司指引高出260个基点。此外，瑞银重申了对美光 的"买入"评级，并将目标价维持在275美元。 2026年第二季度传统DDR毛利率将反超HBM 市场普遍认为HBM是存储芯片制造商的利润引擎，但瑞银通过供应链调查发现了新的趋势。由于全行 业将大部分新增产能分配给HBM，导致传统DRAM供应极度紧张，从而推高了其定价权。瑞银大胆预 测，这一供需 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of semiconductor stocks, particularly related to Moores Threads and the semiconductor equipment sector, with significant price increases expected due to rising demand driven by AI [1][2][3] - Moores Threads announced that its stock will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on December 5, with its issuance price being the highest among new stocks this year [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) saw a daily increase of 3.63%, leading its peers, and the underlying index, the CSI Semiconductor, had the highest single-day gain among similar indices [1][3] Group 2 - The global semiconductor equipment sales are projected to grow by 11% year-on-year, reaching $33.66 billion by Q3 2025, indicating strong growth in the sector [1] - The storage industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand situation, with AI becoming a core driver of future storage demand, particularly for HBM, large-capacity DDR5, and enterprise SSDs [2] - The anticipated supply-demand gap for NAND is expected to reach -14.20% and -14.25% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, while DRAM supply-demand gaps are projected at -9.38% and -8.84% for the same years [2] Group 3 - Historical cycles in the storage market have been driven by emerging technologies that promote product upgrades and innovations, suggesting that the industry may be at the beginning of a new storage cycle driven by AI [3] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks an index where over 50% is composed of semiconductor equipment, with a significant concentration in leading companies such as Zhongwei Company and North Huachuang [3] - As of December 3, the CSI Semiconductor index has seen a year-to-date increase of 54%, with a maximum increase of over 80%, ranking first among major semiconductor indices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) surged by 3.63% in a single day, driven by the listing of a domestic GPU leader and strong growth in global equipment sales, alongside a favorable cycle in storage prices and technology [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) outperformed its peers, ranking first among eight similar indices with a notable single-day increase [1]. - The index tracking the semiconductor equipment has shown a year-to-date increase of 54%, with a maximum increase exceeding 80% during the period [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The listing of GPU companies like Moer Thread and Muxi is expected to channel significant funds into upstream industries through technology R&D and capacity expansion [3]. - According to SEMI, global semiconductor equipment sales are projected to grow by 11% year-on-year by Q3 2025, reaching $33.66 billion, indicating robust growth [3]. - The storage chip sector is experiencing a favorable cycle, with NAND Flash prices expected to rise by 20%-25% in Q4, driven by tight supply and increasing demand from AI applications [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand gap for NAND and DRAM is projected to remain tight, with deficits of -14.20% and -9.38% respectively in 2026-2027, suggesting ongoing market pressure [4]. - The storage sector is characterized by a resonance of price and technology cycles, which is likely to lead to higher-than-expected capital expenditures in storage [4]. - Historical analysis indicates that storage cycles are influenced by emerging technologies that drive product upgrades and market expansion, with AI demand potentially marking the beginning of a new storage cycle [4].

12月3日，沪锡期货主力2601合约日盘高开高走，盘中最高触及31.41万元/吨，涨幅达2.72%，创下2022 年5月以来新高；收盘报31.23万元/吨，上涨2.15%。自今年6月启动上涨行情以来，沪锡主力合约累计 涨幅已攀升至23.3%。 此轮锡价上行主要受矿端供应收缩与宏观预期改善双重驱动。供应端方面，缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度显著 慢于市场预期，当地锡精矿出口量持续处于低位，加剧了市场对原料短缺的担忧；宏观层面，美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.2%（据CME FedWatch工具），宽松政策预期升温对大宗商品整体形 成提振。此外，新兴领域需求的快速增长为锡价提供了坚实支撑。当前锡消费结构中，半导体与消费电 子仍是锡焊料的核心应用场景——作为锡消费占比超65%的主力领域，半导体行业的景气度回升直接拉 动了锡焊料需求。据半导体行业协会（SIA）最新数据，2024年全球半导体销售额达6276亿美元，较 2023年的5268亿美元大幅增长19.1%；机构预测，2025年半导体封装用锡焊料需求增速将进一步攀升至 5%-7%，成为锡价中长期的重要支撑因素。 现货市场同步走强，锡均价站稳30万元/吨关口，W ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][39] Core Views - Alibaba's AI product revenue continues to grow significantly, with a quarterly revenue increase of 5% to 247.795 billion yuan, and a 15% increase on a same-store basis [8][9] - The adjusted EBITA for Alibaba decreased by 78% to 9.073 billion yuan, primarily due to investments in instant retail, user experience, and technology [8] - The cloud intelligence group's revenue grew by 34% to 39.824 billion yuan, driven by an increase in public cloud business and AI-related product adoption [9] - Dell Technologies reported a quarterly revenue of $27 billion, an 11% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in its infrastructure solutions group [10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Alibaba's revenue from its international digital commerce group increased by 10% to 34.799 billion yuan, while its cloud intelligence group saw a 34% revenue increase [9] - The AI-related product revenue for Alibaba maintained strong momentum, achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth [9] - Dell's infrastructure solutions group revenue reached $14.1 billion, a 24% increase, with server and networking business revenue growing by 37% [10] Market Review - The electronic industry saw a weekly increase of 6.05% from November 24 to November 28, with the communication sector leading the gains [10][13] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose from 6,703.20 points to 7,025.15 points during the same period [16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI PCB industry chain, recommending stocks such as Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and others [37] - It also highlights a favorable view on the entire storage industry chain, with key stocks including Zhaoyi Innovation and Demingli [37] - The report emphasizes the transformative potential of general artificial intelligence over the next decade, predicting a 100,000-fold increase in total computing power by 2035 [37]

Group 1: US Economy and Market - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is losing independence, caught in a "trilemma" due to high government debt, requiring bond purchases to finance fiscal deficits, which complicates decision-making regarding economic growth, high inflation, and financial stability [1] - The US economic cycle is entering a late stage, with a divergence between the semiconductor cycle and the broader economy, as private credit defaults rise and consumer confidence hits historical lows, indicating risks of economic slowdown [2][3] - The global trade war initiated by Trump has not improved the US trade deficit, and the increasing fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $40 trillion, is expected to benefit precious metals and commodities [3] Group 2: Chinese Economy and Market - Positive signals in the Chinese macro economy include industrial profits growing over 20% for two consecutive months, with high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors emerging as new growth engines, offsetting real estate sector declines [4] - Policy shifts are evident, with liquidity and exchange rate support emerging as the government aims to reverse negative economic expectations, leading to a potential capital inflow and RMB appreciation [5] - The Chinese market is entering a strong phase, with listed company profit growth recovering and valuations remaining at historical lows, suggesting that the market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations [6][7] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - Precious metals like gold and silver remain important long-term hedges against dollar depreciation, while oil prices are expected to strengthen in the next three to six months, reflecting the late stage of the economic cycle [8] - The US stock market is at a 35-year cyclical peak, increasing the risk of bubbles, while the Chinese market, due to economic transformation, improved liquidity, and valuation advantages, is becoming a key focus for global asset allocation [8]