Core Viewpoint - The current market for tin futures is influenced by macroeconomic factors, policy changes, and industry dynamics, with a focus on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and its impact on interest rate expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight, London tin prices fell by 1.17%, closing at $49,230, a decrease of $585, with a trading volume of 460 contracts and an open interest increase of 5 contracts [1]. - In contrast, the domestic Shanghai tin futures market saw a significant rise, with the main contract closing at 386,250 CNY/ton, up 4,050 CNY, reflecting a 1.06% increase [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a contraction due to domestic smelters entering maintenance ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to tight circulation of refined tin and high premiums, while overseas supply remains stable [2]. - Demand from downstream sectors such as electronics and photovoltaics is tapering off as pre-holiday stockpiling concludes, resulting in limited overall support for prices, although some replenishment is still occurring [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Sentiment - Global tin inventories are at low levels, maintaining a tight supply situation that supports prices [2]. - The market sentiment is characterized by a "weak external, strong internal" dynamic, with short-term price expectations fluctuating between 387,000 and 392,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for continued upward movement in the overall metal market [3]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - The company suggests adopting a cautious and defensive strategy with light positions, focusing on tin, nickel, and silver, which are in a tight supply-demand balance, while also considering longer-term investments in gold and copper due to expected liquidity easing and industrial upgrades [3].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 ◼ 市场表现回顾： ◼ 事件驱动盘点： ◼ 指数后市展望： ◼ 风险提示： 1)行业政策或监管环境突变；2)宏观经济不及预期；3)发生重大预期外的事 件。 金融产品深度报告 20260202 纳斯达克 100ETF，1 月复盘与 2 月展望 2026 年 02 月 02 日 [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 2026-02-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 走势复盘：2026 年 1 月，纳斯达克 100 指数月度上涨 1.20%，整体震荡 向上。上旬弱经济数据强化宽松预期，推动指数上行；中旬因 PPI 超预 期、鲍威尔遭调查及特朗普地缘言论等风险集中爆发，引发指数调整； 下旬政治危机缓和，财报季验证 AI 与半导体需求强劲，但高位 PPI 及 特朗普提名鹰派美联储主席候选人重燃政策疑虑，导致指数回调。 ...

Market Performance - The market showed mixed performance from January 19 to January 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11%[5] - The average daily trading volume was 2.80 trillion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week[5] Healthcare Sector - At the JPM 2026 conference, over 20 Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies showcased their advancements, with significant business development (BD) transactions reported[16] - In 2025, the value of China's innovative drug patent licensing transactions reached approximately $135.7 billion, a 143% year-on-year increase, with 157 total transactions[20] Consumer Sector - The Qianwen APP integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem, achieving over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, marking its entry into the "billion-level club"[25] - This integration allows for a seamless process from search to decision-making and payment, establishing a comprehensive AI application ecosystem[26] Hard Technology Sector - The supply of storage and logic chips remains tight, leading to widespread price increases across the industry[32] - The price of enterprise SSDs continues to rise due to increased demand from AI servers, with NAND Flash supply expected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026[35] High-end Manufacturing - The State Grid announced a total fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), a 40% increase from the previous period, averaging 800 billion yuan annually[42] - By 2030, renewable energy generation is expected to account for approximately 30% of total power generation, indicating significant growth potential in the solar and wind sectors[46]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "super earnings week" will see major tech companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla, as well as storage giants Samsung and SK Hynix, release their earnings reports, with a focus on AI technology and the semiconductor cycle [1] Group 1: Earnings Reports - Major tech companies including Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla are set to report earnings, highlighting the significance of AI technology and semiconductor cycles [1] - Storage giants Samsung and SK Hynix will also release their financial results during this period [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates, while the market is watching for potential delays in rate cuts [1] - Key economic data from both the US and China will be released, including US durable goods orders and China's industrial profits [1] Group 3: Geopolitical and Political Events - Geopolitical risks, the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair, and the potential for another government shutdown in the US are expected to continue affecting global risk sentiment [1] - Upcoming events include the EU-India summit, which may announce a trade agreement, and a visit by the UK Prime Minister to China [1]

Core Insights - The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has achieved returns of 35-40% since the initiation of a Buy recommendation, benefiting from a market recovery following the lows caused by tariffs in April 2025 [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, focusing on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization [1] - Previous experience includes serving as Vice President at Barclays, leading teams in model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, which has developed expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis [1] - The analyst collaborates with a research partner to co-author investment research, combining strengths to provide high-quality, data-driven insights [1] Group 2: Research Focus - The research approach emphasizes rigorous risk management and a long-term perspective on value creation [1] - There is a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis, aiming to deliver actionable ideas for investors [1]

美银最新亚洲基金经理调查显示，区域市场情绪正在经历显著重构。日本连续第27个月蝉联投资者最青睐市场，而印度则从上月的轻微超配转为 轻微低配，中国市场的长期结构性叙事出现反转，投资者对其前景的乐观情绪升至调查启动以来最高水平。 半导体板块继续主导投资者偏好，54%的受访者超配该板块，为所有行业之首。在中国市场，AI和半导体主题的受欢迎程度创下调查新高，66% 的受访者将其列为最青睐主题。这一趋势在日本和韩国、台湾等市场同样显著，预期半导体周期将走强的受访者比例接近三年高点。 印度市场的降温可能反映出投资者对其与美国贸易协议延迟的失望。相比之下，除日本外，投资者对台湾和韩国保持建设性态度，受益于对半导 体周期强化的坚定预期。 日本持续领跑，政策预期温和 日本以54%的净超配比例继续占据投资者偏好榜首，自2023年10月纳入调查以来，每月都稳居区域首选。投资者正在上调市场回报预期，关注焦 点集中在高市政府通过积极投资增长领域来实现经济增长和财政整固的潜在生产力提升政策。 据追风交易台，在这份覆盖112位管理2800亿美元资产的基金经理的1月调查中，亚太区除日本市场的回报预期飙升至历史92%分位数，创两年新 高。全球 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a resurgence in the semiconductor and memory sectors, driven by a "super cycle" in memory demand, leading to significant stock price increases for several memory companies and semiconductor equipment firms [1][3]. - The first annual report forecast indicates a substantial net profit growth of 427.19%-520.22% for 2025, boosting market sentiment in the memory sector [3]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) saw a 3.26% increase, with a trading volume exceeding 1.4 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest in the sector [1][3]. Group 2 - The demand side is driven by the launch of new storage platforms, particularly NV's new Rubin AI platform, which is expected to significantly increase NAND demand due to enhanced memory capabilities [4]. - On the supply side, a supply-demand mismatch is causing continuous price increases for storage products, as leading storage chip manufacturers shift production towards high-end chips suitable for AI and data centers while reducing output of traditional memory chips [5]. - TrendForce forecasts that by Q1 2026, the contract prices for general DRAM will increase by 55-60%, and NAND Flash products will see price increases of 33-38% [3][6]. Group 3 - The domestic storage leader is set to receive IPO approval, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan for technology upgrades and next-generation production lines, which is expected to enhance domestic equipment demand and market share [6]. - The localization rate of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in China is currently low, with projections indicating an increase from 25% in 2024 to 30% by 2026 [6][7]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) focuses on the upstream segment of the semiconductor industry, which has the highest technical barriers and value concentration, with nearly 60% equipment content [7].

周一，美股三大指数集体小幅收涨，标普500指数和道琼斯指数双双创历史新高。截至收盘，道指涨 86.13点，涨幅为0.17%，报49590.20点；纳指涨62.56点，涨幅为0.26%，报23733.90点；标普500指数涨 10.99点，涨幅为0.16%，报6977.27点。 热门中概股多数收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨4.26%，阿里巴巴涨超10%；哔哩哔哩、小鹏汽车涨超 8%，百度、微博涨超6%，蔚来、网易、京东涨超4%，理想汽车涨超2%。 美国司法部威胁要对美联储主席鲍威尔提起刑事诉讼，再度引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，金属价格 普遍上涨，黄金和白银价格攀升至纪录高位，现货黄金价格升破4600美元/盎司；现货白银价格一度上 涨8%，突破86美元/盎司；LME基准铜期货价格一度上涨2.5%，至13323美元/吨，之后回吐部分涨幅。 伊朗局势动荡引发投资者对伊朗供应中断的担忧，原油价格升至2025年12月初以来的最高水平。WTI 2 月原油期货价格收于59.50美元/桶，涨幅为0.64%，此前三个交易日累计上涨超过6%；布伦特3月原油期 货价格收于63.87美元/桶，涨幅为0.84%。 贵金属价格再创历史新高 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector has shown strong bullish momentum at the beginning of the year, with gold making a significant upward gap that has not been filled, serving as a springboard for further price increases [1][4] - Spot gold is making a strong push towards the psychological barrier of $4500 per ounce, driven by sudden fluctuations in geopolitical situations that have led to a surge in safe-haven investments in the commodity market [1][4] - Silver has outperformed gold, with a cumulative increase of over 10% since the beginning of the week, closing above the important level of $80 per ounce [4] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are also participating in the upward trend, with platinum and palladium rising in high correlation with silver [4] - Copper futures have reached a historical peak of $6 per pound, supported by expectations of global infrastructure and industrial recovery [4] Group 3: Energy Market - The energy market is experiencing a divergence in price trends, with Brent crude oil falling to around $60 per barrel, influenced by unexpected supply increases from Venezuela [2][4] - Major energy companies like Chevron have seen their stock prices quickly retreat after initial surges, indicating a cautious attitude from investors towards the oil sector [2][4] Group 4: Equity Market - The U.S. stock market shows high risk appetite, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching historical highs and closing above 49,000 points [2][5] - The S&P 500 index has also set new records, while the semiconductor sector, particularly companies like SanDisk and Micron Technology, has seen significant gains of 28% and 10% respectively, indicating positive changes in demand within the semiconductor cycle [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including December ADP employment figures and ISM services PMI, to assess whether the U.S. economy can support current high valuations [3][5] - The current market environment is characterized by a coexistence of high returns and high volatility, prompting the need for strict risk control measures while pursuing opportunities in metal price rebounds and U.S. stock trends [3][5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "spring market excitement" has begun early, characterized by a clear "structural lead and opportunity rotation" feature, with technology remaining dominant [2][3][16] - The current market adjustment was primarily driven by three factors: overseas liquidity disturbances, concerns over AI bubble risks during the US earnings window, and relatively mild economic data, all of which are now diminishing [14][15][16] - The A-share market is entering a pre-heating and layout window for the "spring market excitement" of 2026, with structural opportunities emerging in sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals [3][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the rise in non-ferrous metals is driven by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry fundamentals, capital allocation, and geopolitical issues, rather than a single cause [4][29] - The report notes that the current Chinese consumer market shows a clear characteristic of "total pressure but structural recovery," with structural highlights in both traditional and emerging consumption sectors [5][31][32] - The investment strategy suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, emphasizing the importance of PPI improvements and the benefits of "anti-involution" policies in sectors like non-ferrous metals, photovoltaics, chemicals, steel, and machinery [6][34][35]