Core Viewpoint - Zhongji Xuchuang, a leading provider of optical module solutions in China, is planning to raise at least $3 billion (HKD 234 billion) through a potential listing in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Company Plans - The company is in the process of selecting investment banks for its Hong Kong listing, collaborating with firms such as CICC, GF Securities, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang's board has authorized management to initiate preparations for the H-share listing, with a timeframe of 12 months from the board's approval [1] - Specific details regarding the issuance scale and listing timeline are still in preliminary stages and may change [1] Group 2: Industry Position - Zhongji Xuchuang is recognized globally as a major supplier of optical modules, providing high-end optical communication transceiver modules [1] - The company offers high-speed optical modules such as 400G, 800G, and 1.6T for cloud data center clients, as well as optical modules for 5G transmission and core network applications [1] - It maintains a leading position in terms of shipment volume and market share within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongji Xuchuang, a leading provider of optical module solutions in China, is planning to raise at least $3 billion (HKD 234 billion) through a Hong Kong IPO, currently in the early stages of collaboration with investment banks [1] Group 1: IPO Plans - The company is in discussions with several investment banks, including CICC, GF Securities, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, regarding the potential listing [1] - The details regarding the issuance scale and listing timeline are still preliminary and may change [1] - The board of directors has authorized the management to initiate preparatory work for the H-share listing, with a timeframe of 12 months from the board's approval [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Zhongji Xuchuang is recognized globally as a major supplier of optical modules, integrating R&D, design, packaging, testing, and sales [1] - The company provides high-speed optical modules such as 400G, 800G, and 1.6T for cloud data center clients, as well as optical modules for telecom equipment manufacturers related to 5G transmission [1] - It maintains a leading position in terms of shipment volume and market share within the industry [1]

Core Insights - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) reported significant growth in its Q3 2025 financial results, with revenue reaching 25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, and net profit of 7.13 billion yuan, up 90.1% [1][3][4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue was 25 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.13 billion yuan, and a non-GAAP net profit of 7.08 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 44.4%, 90.1%, and 90.5% respectively [1][3] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 10.22 billion yuan, a 56.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, up 125% [3] - Cash received from sales and services reached 23.09 billion yuan, a 50.5% increase, while operating cash flow net amount surged by 314.54% to 5.455 billion yuan [4] Product Demand and Market Position - The demand for 800G orders has been consistently increasing since Q1 2025, with expectations for continued growth in shipment volumes [1][3] - The company is preparing for large-scale orders in 2026-2027 by expanding domestic and overseas production capacity [1][8] - Zhongji Xuchuang's main clients include major global tech companies such as Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft, indicating a strong market position [8] Capacity Expansion and Investment - As of Q3 2025, the company's construction projects increased significantly from 100 million yuan to nearly 1 billion yuan, primarily due to expansion investments [2][9] - Total assets reached 39.726 billion yuan, a 37.6% increase from the previous year, while net assets grew by 37.9% to 26.389 billion yuan [9] Research and Development - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to 9.45 billion yuan, a 27.41% increase, with an R&D expense ratio of 3.78% [9] - The company holds 385 patents, including 201 invention patents, maintaining its position as the world's leading optical module manufacturer [10] Stock Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang's stock price reached a historical high of 542.01 yuan per share in 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 717.51% from a low of 66.3 yuan [7]

Sector Report Summary: Technology Industry Overview - The report focuses on the technology sector, specifically the demand for optical modules in AI and cloud computing, driven by major players like Nvidia, Google, and AWS [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Demand Forecast for Optical Modules**: - Total demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is projected to reach 43 million and 30 million units in 2026, respectively, an increase from previous estimates of 37 million and 15 million [1][8]. - This growth is attributed to: - Increased demand from Nvidia, Google, and AWS for accelerators [1][8]. - Rising GPU/ASIC scale-out bandwidth, which enhances the GPU/ASIC-to-optical module ratio [1][8]. - Google's transition to large-scale clusters in 2026, which will likely adopt optical interconnects [1][8]. 2. **Nvidia's Impact**: - Nvidia's new Rubin GPU is expected to significantly increase the scale-out bandwidth, with each GPU equipped with two CX9 NIC chips, doubling the bandwidth compared to the previous Blackwell architecture [3]. - The ratio of 1.6T optical modules to GPUs has improved from 1:2.5 to 1:5 [3]. 3. **Google's Transition**: - Google is anticipated to fully transition to large-scale clusters in 2026, with a projected TPU-to-optical module ratio of approximately 1:4 [3]. - Expected TPU shipments for Google are 4 million, leading to a demand for 6 million to 10 million units of 800G/1.6T optical modules in 2026 [3]. 4. **Beneficiaries of Increased Demand**: - Companies like Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), Broadcom (AVGO), and LITE are expected to benefit from the upward revision in demand for 1.6T optical modules [4]. - LITE is well-positioned to capitalize on the transition towards scale-up architectures in optical communications [4]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: - The report highlights the expected total shipment of Optical Communication Systems (OCS) to be 15,000 and 30,000 units in 2025 and 2026, with LITE projected to capture a 30% market share in 2026 [4]. Additional Important Insights - **CPO/OIO Updates**: - Nvidia's CPO switch is expected to see shipments of 2,000, 20,000, and 35,000 units in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - Starting from 2027, both Nvidia and ASIC players are expected to introduce OIO-related solutions, which will drive demand for CW lasers and optical engines [5]. - **Risks**: - Potential risks include AI demand deceleration, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased competition within the sector [6][12]. Conclusion - The technology sector, particularly in optical modules for AI and cloud computing, is poised for significant growth driven by major players like Nvidia and Google. The upward revisions in demand forecasts indicate a robust market opportunity, although risks remain that could impact future performance.

Core Insights - As of October 27, 12 listed companies in the A-share CPO (Co-packaged Optics) sector have disclosed their Q3 2025 reports, with 9 optical module companies, including Henan Shijia Photon Technology Co., Ltd. and Jiangsu Yongding Co., Ltd., reporting an increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters [1] Financial Performance - Several listed companies reported a net profit growth exceeding 100% in the first three quarters. For instance, Shijia Photon achieved a net profit of 300 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 727.74% [1] - Yongding Co. reported a net profit of 329 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 474.30% [1] - Zhuhai Guangku Technology Co., Ltd. recorded a net profit of 115 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 106.61% [1] Growth Drivers - The significant performance growth is primarily attributed to the rising demand for AI computing power and an increase in the shipment volume of optical module products, as noted by multiple companies in their financial reports [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) has seen its stock price rise over 3% to 457.5 yuan, reaching a historical high, with a trading volume exceeding 10 billion yuan and a market capitalization surpassing 500 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of over 2.7 times year-to-date [1] Industry Summary - Demand for 1.6T optical modules continues to be revised upwards, as indicated by a recent survey from Xingzheng Communication Industry Chain [1] - Major overseas clients have recently increased their procurement plans for 1.6T optical modules for 2026, with some customers locking in production capacity for the upcoming year [1] - The total industry demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to rise from 10 million to 15 million, and recently to 20 million units, primarily driven by the accelerated deployment of GB300 and the subsequent Rubin platform, as well as the rapid growth in bandwidth requirements for AI training and inference networks [1]

Market Commentary - The market is experiencing a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.36% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.02% on October 21, 2025, supported by a trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan, an 8% increase from the previous trading day [3] - Most industries are seeing gains, particularly in telecommunications (up 4.89%), electronics (up 3.21%), and real estate (up 2.26%), while coal is the only sector declining (down 1.05%) [3] Key Insights - The expectation of interest rate cuts is increasing, with several small and medium-sized banks lowering deposit rates, indicating a potential for further monetary easing by the central bank in the fourth quarter [3] - The demand for optical modules is expected to continue growing, with Nvidia raising its shipment expectations for the new AI chip Vera Rubin, leading to significant stock price increases for key players in the optical module sector [3] - State media has published articles emphasizing that stabilizing the stock market can enhance consumer confidence and spending, which is expected to positively impact market sentiment [4] Growth Cycle Analysis - Historical data suggests that the current healthy adjustment phase in the growth industry cycle is nearing its end, typically lasting 1-2 months with maximum adjustments of 15-20% [5] - The upcoming release of Q3 earnings reports and potential high-level meetings between the US and China are seen as critical events that could validate the market's transition into a new performance-driven phase [5][7] - The report identifies two main investment themes: the ongoing growth cycle in AI infrastructure and sectors with strong performance support, such as power equipment and non-ferrous metals [7][8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the current period is an optimal time to position for the next phase of growth, with a focus on sectors like AI computing infrastructure, robotics, and military technology [7] - The second key investment theme includes sectors with robust support, such as power equipment benefiting from wind energy and storage demand, and non-ferrous metals like rare earths, which are resilient amid changing US-China relations [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.02%, driven by a significant surge in the technology sector, particularly in optical modules, consumer electronics, and chips [1] - The AI ETF (515070) experienced a rise of 4.42%, with key holdings such as Xinyisheng up by 10.99% and Zhongji Xuchuang up by 9.55%, indicating strong performance among AI-related stocks [1] - A recent survey by Xingzheng Securities revealed that overseas clients have raised their procurement plans for 1.6T optical modules for 2026 from 10 million to 20 million units, driven by the accelerated deployment of the GB300 and subsequent Rubin platforms, as well as the rapid growth in bandwidth demand for AI training and inference networks [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that the training of large AI models and the construction of data centers are becoming core drivers, leading to accelerated penetration of domestic storage chips in the enterprise market, with local manufacturers simultaneously expanding production capacity [1] - The AI ETF (515070) tracks the CS AI Theme Index (930713), focusing on companies providing technology, basic resources, and applications for artificial intelligence, including major domestic tech leaders such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyisheng among its top ten weighted stocks [2] - Related products include the AI ETF (515070), the Huaxia ChiNext AI ETF (159381), and the Huaxia Sci-Tech AI ETF (589010), indicating a growing interest in AI-focused investment vehicles [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rally on October 21, with major indices showing strong gains, indicating positive investor sentiment and market momentum [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, reclaiming the 3900-point level - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.06% - The ChiNext Index surged by 3.02% - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 141.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Highlights - Leading sectors included optical modules (CPO), consumer electronics, and optical chips, which saw significant gains - Major players in the optical module sector, referred to as the "three giants," experienced notable price fluctuations - Yuanjie Technology hit a 20% daily limit up, marking a historical high - Cultivated diamonds continued their strong performance, with Huanghe Xuanfeng achieving two consecutive limit-up days - The Apple supply chain was notably active, with Huanxu Electronics hitting the daily limit up and Industrial Fulian experiencing substantial gains - A total of 4650 stocks in the market saw an increase [1].

Core Viewpoint - The CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) sector in the A-share market is experiencing a strong performance driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, leading to significant price increases in multiple stocks [1][4]. Industry Overview - The CPO technology effectively overcomes traditional optical module limitations in bandwidth, power consumption, and density, making it well-suited for high-frequency data interactions required in AI scenarios [4]. - Recent reports indicate a positive outlook for CPO and related optical modules, with major overseas clients increasing their procurement plans for 1.6T optical modules from 10 million to 20 million units due to rising bandwidth demands [4]. - The global Ethernet optical module market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of a 35% increase to $18.9 billion by 2026 and surpassing $35 billion by 2030 [4]. Company Performance - Companies like Dongshan Precision are experiencing a significant supply shortage in the optical chip market, particularly for high-speed products (800G and above), which is expected to persist in the short term [5]. - Zhongji Xuchuang has begun shipping 1.6T optical modules and anticipates continued mass production and delivery in the upcoming quarters [6]. - Yuanjie Technology expects a substantial increase in demand for 400G/800G optical modules in the second half of the year, driven by customer transitions from GPU to ASIC chips [6]. Financial Results - Shijia Photon reported a revenue of 1.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 113.96%, with a net profit of 299 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 727.74% [8]. - Luxshare Precision's net profit for the first three quarters is projected to be between 10.89 billion and 11.34 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 20% to 25% [8]. - Zhongshi Technology expects a net profit of 230 million to 270 million yuan for the first three quarters, a significant increase of 74.16% to 104.45% year-on-year [8]. Market Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic view on the sustained growth of optical module demand, driven by the ongoing explosion in AI computing needs [9]. - Leading optical module companies are expected to maintain strong profitability and competitive advantages due to the global data center construction and upgrade wave [9]. - The increasing reliability requirements and shortened iteration cycles for optical modules are raising industry technical barriers, further highlighting the advantages of leading manufacturers [9].