光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，09合约收盘价1737元/吨，跌幅1.36%。01合约收盘价 | 震荡 | | | 1757元/吨，跌幅0.96%。现货市场偏弱运行，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1780 | | | | 元/吨、1790元/吨，日环比分别跌10元/吨、持平。基本面来看，昨日尿素行业日产 | | | | 量19.40万吨，日环比增0.19万吨。需求端跟进情绪仍有放缓，昨日主流地区产销率 | | | | 仍维持低位徘徊，高成交地区产销也不足60%。印标方面，印度本轮招标最终采购 | | | | 量199.88万吨，符合采购计划但较初步确认量有所减少，中国在配额内可供印度20- | | | | 30万吨数量，利于缓 国内供需压力。整体来看，印标及出口政策落地后市场新增 | | | | 驱动不足，国内基本面支撑力度有限。短期期货盘面仍以宽幅震荡趋势为主，短期 | | | | 偏弱。后续关注出口订单兑现情况、现货成交氛围。 | | ...

长效机制赋能绿色转型。技术是降碳的手段，而将绿色低碳理念内化为企业战略与长效机制，才是持续 转型的核心动力。临猗分公司2017年至2024年持续投入巨资进行环保升级，治理触角从集中排放源延伸 至更隐蔽的无组织排放和特征污染物领域。正是这种常态化、机制化的减排，为临猗分公司探索降碳前 沿技术提供了不竭动力，确保在绿色发展中跑出转型加速度。 源头减排打造低碳内核。源头减排是实现深度降碳的根本之道，其核心在于通过技术革新削减化石能源 消耗和高碳工艺排放，构建低碳内核。临猗分公司将技术升级作为转型的核心驱动力，2017年率先投运 280T/H高效超低排放锅炉，显著提升能源转换效率；2019年完成原有220T/H锅炉及"三废"炉的全面超 低排放改造。这些举措大幅削减燃煤环节产生的颗粒物、二氧化硫、氮氧化物等，为低碳生产体系奠定 坚实根基，直接推动主要废气污染物排放量持续下降。 在全球气候治理加速推进与国家"双碳"目标刚性约束下，传统煤化工企业如何突破能耗与排放瓶颈、在 降碳行动中争当先锋?丰喜集团临猗分公司的答案是：三管齐下，以持续的降碳治理实践让传统煤化工 企业实现绿色发展。 末端治理实现深度降碳。末端治理是对源头减 ...

在全球气候治理加速推进与国家"双碳"目标刚性约束下，传统煤化工企业如何突破能耗与排放瓶颈、在 降碳行动中争当先锋?丰喜集团临猗分公司的答案是：三管齐下，以持续的降碳治理实践让传统煤化工 企业实现绿色发展。 长效机制赋能绿色转型。技术是降碳的手段，而将绿色低碳理念内化为企业战略与长效机制，才是持续 转型的核心动力。临猗分公司2017年至2024年持续投入巨资进行环保升级，治理触角从集中排放源延伸 至更隐蔽的无组织排放和特征污染物领域。正是这种常态化、机制化的减排，为临猗分公司探索降碳前 沿技术提供了不竭动力，确保在绿色发展中跑出转型加速度。 作者：丰喜集团临猗分公司尿素压缩班班长 田黎明 源头减排打造低碳内核。源头减排是实现深度降碳的根本之道，其核心在于通过技术革新削减化石能源 消耗和高碳工艺排放，构建低碳内核。临猗分公司将技术升级作为转型的核心驱动力，2017年率先投运 280T/H高效超低排放锅炉，显著提升能源转换效率；2019年完成原有220T/H锅炉及"三废"炉的全面超 低排放改造。这些举措大幅削减燃煤环节产生的颗粒物、二氧化硫、氮氧化物等，为低碳生产体系奠定 坚实根基，直接推动主要废气污染物排放量持续 ...

Core Insights - The report titled "Prospects for Low-Carbon Technologies in Industry under China's Carbon Neutrality Goals" was initiated by Tsinghua University's Carbon Neutrality Research Institute and supported by the Energy Foundation, focusing on China's industrial carbon neutrality strategy [1] Group 1: Industrial Carbon Neutrality Strategy - The report emphasizes that the industrial sector is a major source of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China, presenting significant opportunities for technological innovation and industrial upgrades [1] - By 2060, CO2 emissions from the industrial sector are expected to drop to 450 million tons, a reduction of approximately 95% compared to 2025, driven by three main factors: demand-side adjustments, technological innovations, and clean electricity substitution [1] - Four core technologies—hydrogen substitution, electrification coupled with clean electricity, raw material substitution, and waste recycling—are projected to contribute nearly 80% of the industrial decarbonization potential [1] Group 2: Development Pathways for Low-Carbon Technologies - The report outlines a "three-stage" pathway for the development of carbon neutrality technologies in the industrial sector: 1. Large-scale application of low-carbon process technologies (2025-2035), focusing on demand-side structural adjustments and short-process technologies, which are expected to contribute about 55% of the industrial carbon neutrality technology reduction [2] 2. Explosive application of disruptive technologies (2036-2050), where hydrogen technology, electrification, and CCUS will be scaled up to break the reliance on high-carbon pathways [2] 3. Deep application of carbon removal technologies (2051-2060), where the industrial sector will rely on CCUS to address hard-to-abate segments while other sectors achieve net-zero emissions [2] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To accelerate the deployment of low-carbon technologies in the industrial sector, the report suggests several policy recommendations, including the planning and deployment of strategic major projects with demonstrative effects, enhancing the role of carbon markets and carbon finance, and establishing a supportive fiscal and tax policy framework for carbon neutrality technology development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Guizhou Meijin "Coal-Coke-Hydrogen" comprehensive utilization demonstration project represents a significant advancement in the coal chemical industry, transforming traditional perceptions of coal processing by implementing a circular economy model and producing high-value products from coal [3][12][16]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project is located in Liuzhi Special District, Guizhou, and utilizes advanced technology such as a 7.65-meter top-loading coke oven and gas purification recovery systems to convert coal into metallurgical coke, hydrogen fuel, fertilizer raw materials, and clean electricity [3][12]. - The project was initiated in May 2022 when Shanxi Meijin Energy Co., Ltd. signed an investment agreement with the Liuzhi Special District government, leveraging the region's substantial coal resources, which amount to 245.28 billion tons [8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Upon full completion, the project is expected to achieve an annual output value of 20 billion yuan and create approximately 1,500 jobs [16]. - The project aims to establish a complete industrial chain of "coal-coke-gas-chemical-electricity-hydrogen energy," setting a benchmark for green low-carbon circular economy in the coal chemical industry [16]. Group 3: Environmental Considerations - The project incorporates advanced processing techniques to convert by-products such as coal tar into high-end carbon black and modified asphalt, contributing to a significant reduction in environmental impact [16]. - The implementation of carbon capture technology further enhances the project's sustainability by transforming black coal into green energy solutions [16].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the coal chemical industry, focusing on two leading companies: Baofeng Energy and Hualu Hengsheng. Baofeng represents modern coal chemical pathways, producing petrochemical products like polymers, while Hualu Hengsheng is rooted in traditional coal chemistry, producing fertilizers and organic amines, and is actively transitioning into new energy and new materials [1][2]. Key Points on Baofeng Energy - Future growth for Baofeng Energy is anticipated from the Ningxia Four Enterprises project and a 4 million ton project in Xinjiang. If approved, this will significantly increase capacity and lower costs using advanced technology, potentially doubling net profits [1][3]. - Baofeng's recent performance includes a methanol-to-olefins capacity of 5.2 million tons, with several projects launched in Yinchuan and Inner Mongolia, showing strong second-quarter results [2]. Key Points on Hualu Hengsheng - Hualu Hengsheng has successfully transitioned from a single urea business to a comprehensive chemical leader, producing various fertilizers, organic amines, acetic acid, and new materials through technological innovation and market expansion [1][4]. - The company’s core competencies include self-generated electricity and steam, integrated production advantages, cost-effective gasification technology, geographical proximity to coal sources, and efficient management practices [7]. - Hualu Hengsheng has demonstrated resilience in different market cycles, achieving a peak ROE of 33% and a net profit margin of 27% during high periods, while maintaining a 12% ROE and over 10% net profit margin during downturns [8]. Product Market Analysis - **Urea**: Hualu Hengsheng has a urea capacity of approximately 2.7 million tons, with domestic prices around 1,750 RMB/ton, significantly lower than international prices exceeding 3,000 RMB/ton, indicating a disparity in profitability [10]. - **Acetic Acid**: The company has a capacity of 1.2 million tons, with stable demand from downstream sectors. However, the industry faces challenges with new capacity additions expected in 2025 [12]. - **DMF**: With a capacity of 400,000 tons, DMF's market is currently underperforming due to low operating rates and historical price lows [13]. - **Adipic Acid**: Hualu Hengsheng's capacity is 520,000 tons, with a projected domestic consumption of 1.8 million tons in 2024. The market is expected to improve slightly due to no new capacity additions in the next two years [14]. - **DMC and Oxalic Acid**: DMC has a competitive edge due to its application in new energy, while oxalic acid is experiencing rapid demand growth, with plans for capacity expansion [16][17]. Future Growth and Investment Outlook - Hualu Hengsheng is undergoing a gasification project to reduce costs and enhance profitability, with plans for new projects in TDI and formic acid, indicating potential for future earnings growth [18]. - The company maintains a healthy cash flow, with annual profits exceeding 3 billion RMB, allowing for consistent dividends and employee stock incentives, resulting in a dividend yield of 2-3% [19]. - Overall, Hualu Hengsheng is viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to its cost competitiveness, product positioning at historical lows, and proactive expansion into new products [20].

Group 1 - The company, Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (300435.SZ), has stated that its equipment can be applied in the coal chemical industry, specifically in the separation, purification, and liquefaction stages of cryogenic processes [1] - The company primarily provides equipment and has accumulated numerous achievements in the coal chemical field, achieving a leading market share domestically [1]

| | | | 甲醇日评20250807: 焦煤仍带来情绪扰动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/8/6 | 2025/8/5 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2503.00 | 2497.00 | 6.00 | 0.24% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2453.00 | 2447.00 | 6.00 | 0.25% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2396.00 | 2397.00 | -1.00 | -0.04% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2387.50 | 2367.50 | 20.00 | 0.84% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2330.00 | 2330.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2382.50 | 2377.50 | 5.00 | 0.21% | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - As the previous policy's bullish expectations are digested by the market, the coal - chemical sector has corrected, and the cost support for methanol has weakened. The fundamental logic will dominate the futures market. With domestic methanol plants resuming production, supply pressure is rising, imports are sufficient, and port inventory is expected to increase significantly. In a weak supply - demand context, the methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Situation - Although there was concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas in early July, the spot price didn't rise significantly due to sufficient downstream inventory. Since late July, previously shut - down plants have resumed production, and the methanol operating rate will gradually increase. As of the week of August 1, the domestic average methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, a 3.28 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last month, and an 11.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The weekly average methanol output was 193.02 tons, a 3.13 - ton increase from the previous week, a 5.69 - ton decrease from the same period last month, and a 31.20 - ton increase from the same period last year. Short - term domestic methanol supply recovery is greater than maintenance losses [3] - Since the third quarter, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been sufficient. Although weather affected the arrival and unloading of imported methanol in China, the overall impact was limited, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation at ports in East and South China is strong. In July, due to typhoons, only 110.69 tons of imported methanol were unloaded, and over 20 tons were postponed to August. Longzhong Information predicts that without weather interference, China's methanol imports in August will reach 155 tons, a monthly record high [4] Demand Situation - The recent shutdown of olefin plants in Zhejiang has increased the inventory accumulation pressure at methanol ports in East China. Although inland CTO procurement has improved apparent port demand, with the expected significant increase in methanol imports in August and no increase in the load of coastal olefin plants, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has risen, possibly leading to methanol flowing from ports to inland areas. As of the week of August 1, the methanol port inventory in East and South China was about 65.03 tons, a 6.32 - ton increase from the previous week, a 15.06 - ton increase from the same period last month, and a 15.80 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory accumulation pressure, low trader purchasing willingness, weak basis, and weak supply - demand expectations have led to a significant decline in spot trading volume [5]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the intelligent chemical model 2.0Pro by Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics and iFlytek marks a significant technological advancement for China's chemical industry, facilitating the transition from laboratory to factory [1] Group 1: DMTO Technology and Its Impact - DMTO technology has been developed since the 1980s and has reached its third generation, with a single unit's methanol processing capacity now at 3.6 million tons per year [2] - The technology has signed contracts for 36 units, with a total capacity exceeding 24 million tons of olefins per year, of which 20 units are already in operation [2] - DMTO technology significantly reduces carbon emissions by about 50% compared to traditional coal combustion methods, making it a crucial direction for clean and efficient coal utilization [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The domestic petrochemical industry is accelerating its transformation towards "new chemical materials" amid rising international oil price volatility [2] - Under the "dual carbon" goals, renewable energy generation is expected to account for 35% of total power generation by 2024, leading to a predicted decline in domestic refined oil demand to 100 million tons by 2050, less than 30% of current levels [2] - DMTO technology, utilizing coal as a stable and controllable raw material, is positioned to meet the growing demand for high-end chemical products and new materials [2] Group 3: Challenges in Energy Transition - The complexity of China's energy and industrial systems poses challenges for scientific decision-making and the determination of technological pathways for energy transition [6] - The integration of artificial intelligence with scientific research and industrial development is still in the exploratory stage, indicating a need for deeper coupling to fully leverage its application value [6] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To achieve energy security, the industry should focus on "oil-chemical switching" through catalytic technology, which can facilitate the production of both oil products and chemicals [8] - In the hydrogen energy and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) sectors, a systematic layout and original breakthroughs are essential to seize technological advantages [9] Group 5: Role of Artificial Intelligence - The rapid development of artificial intelligence presents new opportunities and challenges for traditional research fields, particularly in chemical engineering, which involves complex dynamic systems [14] - The goal is to develop intelligent chemical processes that can transition from laboratory to factory in a single step, addressing the long-standing challenges of scaling up chemical technology [14]