Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of being prepared for opportunities in investing, as articulated by Howard Marks, who believes that luck plays a significant role in success but is often a result of being ready when opportunities arise [1][54]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is not about seeking absolute certainty but making reasonable decisions amid uncertainty, with a focus on maintaining composure in emotionally driven markets [2]. - Successful investors should identify a few critical factors and conduct deep research rather than trying to grasp all available information [2]. - The ability to control oneself rather than the market is crucial for both investing and life [2]. Group 2: Early Experiences and Learning - Howard Marks reflects on his early experiences, particularly how a high school accounting course shaped his logical thinking and understanding of financial principles [9][11]. - His career began at Citibank, where he was unexpectedly moved to the bond department, leading to significant learning and growth in the convertible bond market [14][15]. - Marks highlights the importance of doing what others are unwilling to do as a key to extraordinary success in investing [16][17]. Group 3: Selling Strategies - The challenge in investing lies not in deciding when to sell but in having the patience to hold until investments begin to pay off [19][20]. - Many investors sell based on emotional reactions to price changes rather than a rational assessment of the investment's value [25][26]. - A proper sell decision should be based on a reevaluation of the investment's original assumptions and whether they still hold true [28][29]. Group 4: Market Behavior - Markets are driven by cycles of greed and fear, leading to overreactions that create investment opportunities [33]. - Emotional extremes in market perception often lead to significant price volatility, which can be exploited by calm and rational investors [34]. Group 5: Intellectual Humility - Marks advocates for "intellectual humility," recognizing the limits of one's knowledge and the unpredictability of the future [36][38]. - Acknowledging that certainty is an illusion in investing can prevent costly mistakes [36][38]. Group 6: Preparation Over Prediction - The article stresses that while predicting the future is impossible, preparing for various potential outcomes is essential for successful investing [39][40]. - Investors should build portfolios that can perform well under multiple scenarios rather than relying on a single predicted outcome [39][40]. Group 7: Private Equity Landscape - The era of private equity as a "silver bullet" investment strategy is over, particularly as interest rates rise and the favorable conditions of the past decades change [41][45]. - Marks notes that the success of private equity was largely due to a declining interest rate environment, which is unlikely to return [45]. Group 8: Key Factors for Successful Investing - Successful investing relies on superior judgment of qualitative factors and the ability to foresee future developments [46][48]. - The best investors are those who can interpret the same information differently or understand qualitative aspects that others overlook [48][50]. Group 9: U.S. Economic Outlook - Marks expresses skepticism about the sustainability of America's economic exceptionalism, noting that while the U.S. has many advantages, the likelihood of maintaining its leading position is uncertain [52][53]. Group 10: The Role of Luck - Luck is acknowledged as a significant factor in investment success, with Marks emphasizing that being prepared when opportunities arise is crucial [54][56]. - The narrative illustrates that many successful outcomes are often a result of being in the right place at the right time, combined with readiness [54][56].

作为每年全国两会后首个举办的"国家级"论坛，中国发展高层论坛着眼于释放我国坚持对外开 放的强烈信号，今年也不例外。3月2 3日至2 4日，中国发展高层论坛2 0 2 5年年会在北京钓鱼台 国宾馆召开。 值得关注的是，今年外企参会呈现出多个特点：一是参会跨国企业国家范围广，共有2 1个国家 8 6位跨国企业的正式代表出席论坛，比去年增加3个国家。其中，来自美国的企业数量最多， 共2 7家；二是首次参会的跨国企业数量创新高，是历年数量最多的，占企业总数的2 0%；三是 参会跨国企业行业覆盖全，金融保险、医药健康、能源矿产等重点行业突出。 开幕式上，国家高层释放了对外开放的坚定信号：国务院总理李强2 3日上午在大会开幕式发 表主旨演讲时表示，将坚定不移推进开放合作，倡导国际通行规则下的公平竞争，维护自由贸 易和全球产业链供应链畅通稳定，继续敞开怀抱欢迎各国企业，进一步扩大市场准入，积极解 决企业关切，帮助外资企业深度融入中国市场。 3月2 3日下午，国务院总理李强在北京人民大会堂会见来华出席中国发展高层论坛2 0 2 5年年会 的美国联邦参议员戴安斯及部分美国企业界人士。李强向美国企业发出"邀请函"。他表示，中 国 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The risk of a recession in the U.S. is high and increasing, with Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warning that Trump's tariff policies could push the economy into recession if implemented for three to five months [1][4][3] - Zandi noted that the current economic environment is fragile, with declining consumer and business confidence impacting investment plans [4][3] - The potential for a recession is described as a "designed recession," indicating that it could be a result of deliberate policy choices rather than external shocks [4] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs has raised concerns about its impact on various sectors, including agriculture and technology [3][5] - Analysts warn that tariffs could hinder the development of U.S. data centers and AI technologies, as much of the necessary hardware is sourced from abroad [5][6] - The imposition of tariffs on key components, such as semiconductors, could pose significant risks to the data center market, which relies on global supply chains [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and its characterization of inflation as "temporary" has faced criticism, particularly from Allianz's chief economic advisor, who labeled it a "major policy mistake" [6][7] - Concerns are raised that the Fed's underestimation of inflation risks could lead to inadequate responses to economic changes, similar to past misjudgments during the pandemic [7][8] - Barclays economists suggest that the Fed's confidence in the temporary nature of price pressures may hinder its ability to respond effectively to evolving economic conditions [7][8]

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何看待近期美股市场调整 ？ 3. 美国经济发生深度衰退的可能性很低。受益于过去几年的财政扩张，居民和企业部门的资产 负债表目前非常健康，财政紧缩可能使美国经济受到一定冲击，但演变为深度衰退的可能性很 低。 总的来看，我们倾向于美国本轮下跌调整（跌幅10-15%）的概率大于熊市（跌幅20%）的概 率。后续市场走势一方面取决于特朗普政府财政紧缩和关税等方面的实际动作，更重要的是观 察特朗普政府主要官员对股市评论措辞的变化，观察政策期权何时出现。 免责声明 2. 财政紧缩预期压制增长前景。马斯克主导的政府效率部DOGE冻结了大量政府外包合同，计 划大规模削减联邦雇员，其影响已经在2月美国挑战者裁员报告等数据上开始显现。 3. 政策叙事转向"经济排毒论"。特朗普政府官员近期频繁提及"美国经济需要转型期"，财长贝 森特称"过去依赖财政扩张、移民红利和全球化红利的增长模式不可持续"。这种叙事转变动摇 了市场对"高增长-高估值"逻辑的信仰。 但从现实来看，美国经济恶化速度并没有那么快。 1. 关税对消费影响有限。据测算，美国进口消费品仅占私人消费支出的4%，即便对墨、加、中 全面加征25%关税，受影 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 427.51 points (0.99%) to close at 42,579.08 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 2.61% to 18,069.26 points, officially entering a technical correction zone [1][4] - The S&P 500 Index decreased by 1.78%, closing at 5,738.52 points, marking its lowest point since early November [5] Economic Policies and Market Reactions - The recent downturn followed the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which unsettled financial markets, leading to retaliatory measures from Canada and anticipated responses from Mexico [4] - The White House announced a one-month delay in imposing tariffs on certain auto manufacturers under the USMCA agreement, which initially sparked a market rebound but ultimately failed to sustain investor confidence [4][5] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet's support for the tariff policy raised concerns about the administration's long-term commitment to these controversial measures, contributing to market volatility [5] Sector Performance - In the Chinese stock market, the Direxion 3x Bull China Daily ETF (YINN) rose by 1.03%, while the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) fell by 0.55% [3] - The semiconductor sector faced significant declines, particularly Marvell Technology, which dropped nearly 20% due to mixed first-quarter financial forecasts, impacting other semiconductor companies as well [5] Economic Indicators - Recent economic reports indicated potential negative impacts of Trump's policies on the U.S. economy, with rising costs due to tariffs and a surge in layoff announcements reaching the highest level since 2020 [6] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book and ISM manufacturing data highlighted increased cost pressures on businesses due to tariffs [6] European Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%, as part of ongoing efforts to stimulate a sluggish economy [8][9] - Despite a slight increase in inflation, overall inflation rates in the Eurozone remain below 3%, with GDP growth in the last quarter showing only a 0.1% increase [9][10] - The ECB's decision comes amid uncertainties related to potential U.S. tariffs on European goods, complicating the monetary policy landscape [9][10]

Group 1 - The article announces a dialogue event featuring Shitai Feng, a partner at Chongyang Investment, and Peng Kaiping, a professor at Tsinghua University, focusing on finding happiness in the era of intense competition [1] - The event is scheduled for March 5th at 8 PM, inviting interested individuals to follow and make reservations [1] Group 2 - The material is published by Chongyang Investment Management Co., Ltd., and is intended for informational and investor education purposes [2] - The information is sourced from public channels and internal research, deemed reliable but not guaranteed for completeness or accuracy [2] - The content does not constitute an advertisement or investment advice, and any referenced entities or products are for research analysis only [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in "land kings" in the real estate market is driven by a combination of policy changes, market supply and demand dynamics, and strategies adopted by real estate companies [1] Supply Side: Improved Land Quality and Policy Relaxation - Local governments are optimizing land supply structures to enhance market activity, focusing on core locations and low plot ratio land, such as in Shanghai and Beijing, which are attractive to developers due to their scarcity and high added value [2] - Cities like Nanjing and Chengdu are raising land prices by planning large luxury homes with lower plot ratios, while many regions have lifted new home price caps, allowing developers to achieve premiums through improved product quality [2] Demand Side: Release of Pent-Up Improvement Demand - Since 2017, price control policies have suppressed genuine improvement demand in core cities, leading to a decline in the quality of new homes delivered over the past six to seven years [3] - The relaxation of price controls has resulted in a concentrated release of improvement demand, providing developers focused on quality with a broader market space [3] Market Structure: Increasing Divergence in Land and Housing Markets - Since the fourth quarter of last year, high-premium land and "land kings" have been concentrated in a few core first- and second-tier cities, while third- and fourth-tier cities continue to see land transactions at base prices [4] - Developers view core city land as a "hard currency" to withstand economic downturns, creating a feedback loop of "limited supply + quality premium" [4] - The rapid improvement in new home quality in core cities has led to a divergence between new and second-hand housing markets, with high-quality new homes enjoying significant premiums while second-hand home prices remain weak [4]

GOLDSTREAM INVESTMENT LIMITED 金涌投資有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：1328） 自願公告 與邁富時之戰略合作 香港交易及結算所有限公司以及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對 其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 有關邁富時的資料 邁富時是全球領先的SaaS智能營銷雲平台，聚焦數字化與智能化，通過提供有競爭力的 產品與服務，覆蓋營銷雲、銷售雲、商業雲、分析雲、智能雲、組織雲六大產品矩陣， 擁有Tforce營銷領域大模型，持續為客戶創造價值。累計服務超20萬家企業，涵蓋零售 消費、汽車、金融、B2B、醫藥大健康、企服、跨境電商、製造業等行業領域。 –2– 本公告乃由金涌投資有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司統稱「本集團」）自願作出， 以通知本公司股東及潛在投資者有關本公司最近期之業務發展。 戰略合作備忘錄 董事會欣然宣佈，有鑑於（其中包括）本集團與弘毅投資集團間的深厚關係，以及與邁富 時，一家於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司，其已發行股份於聯交所主板上市 ...

从本质上来说，任何投资决策都是预测未来。无论你决定购买股票，卖出债券，或者坐拥现金，其实都是基于你对未来做出的判断之上的决策。因此有很多 人认为，如果想要获得好的投资回报，投资者一定要有超凡的预测未来的能力。那么问题来了：事实确实是这样么？ 在分析这个问题之前，我们先来看张图。 图表 1 ：市场对美联储基准利率的预测总是错 数据来源：彭博社，Apollo Chief Economist 上图展示了自2008年以来美联储基准利率的历史（绿色实线）。站在现在回头看，我们可以看到一条非常清晰的历史路径：美联储在2008年金融危机后，立 刻大幅度降息至零，并将零利率水平一直保持到2016年。在2016到2020年间，美联储慢慢逐步升息。然后到了2020年，COVID疫情发生后，美联储再次将利 率降到零。从2022年开始，为了应对通胀压力，美联储又快速将基准利率提到5%左右。 很多人可能没有意识到的是，市场对于美联储未来利率的预测（上图中虚线）， 从来没有正确过 。举例来说，在2008到2016年间，美联储利率始终保持在 零，然而同期市场的共识是：美联储很快就会升息。很少有人会预料到，零利率会整整持续8年。 接下来，让 ...

股东参与投票的积极程度发展较为平缓，但仍有越来越多的中小股东在积极行权。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜罗宾 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，近日，富达国际与紫顶联合发布2024年《中国公司投后管理报告》，报告显 示，随着中国持续推动资本市场高质量发展，在新"国九条"、新《公司法》等一系列改革政策出台 的背景下，少数股东已成为A股上市公司决策中一股不容忽视的力量。尽管少数股东数量和投票参与 率增幅近年来趋于平稳，但他们在投后管理上更有的放矢，倾向于就更具争议的议案发声。而适时的 监管政策出台将有望进一步助推中小股东力量的发展壮大，推动中国公司治理和投后管理水平的持续 提升。 自2020年发布首份报告以来，这是富达与紫顶合作编写的第三份报告。该报告持续关注并跟踪了A 股股东投票情况以及中国公司治理方面的变化，研究涵盖了截至2024年6月30日，MSCI中国A股在 岸指数成分股的626家公司（其中99家为A、H两地上市公司），从2022年到2024年上半年召开的 5,088次股东会议上的46,266项决议，旨在为国内外投资者提供了解中国投后管理进展的窗口。 投票参与率增长趋于平稳 但意见 ...