Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Adjustments - 15 provinces have lowered their economic growth targets, accounting for 31.8% of national GDP, with a national weighted average target of 5.3% for 2024 [1] - Special bonds will support computing power, emerging industry equipment, intelligent transformation, and provincial industrial parks, with the capital ratio for special bonds increased to 30% [1] - Local governments are ensuring an increase in technology investment, with Shanghai setting a target for R&D spending to reach 4.5% of GDP [1] Group 2: AI Industry Developments - DeepSeek R1 model has entered the global top-tier model ranks, leading to rapid user growth and a reevaluation of the AI industry landscape [2] - 10 cloud computing giants and 12 intelligent computing companies have integrated with DeepSeek, benefiting from short-term traffic and building long-term competitive advantages [2] - Following the DeepSeek event, Chinese tech asset valuations have recovered, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 22.8% [2] Group 3: Computing Power and Investment Trends - The government is accelerating the development of domestically controlled computing power, with a target of 105 EFlops for intelligent computing construction by 2025 [3] - Internet companies are experiencing rapid growth in capital expenditures, with ByteDance's expected CapEx for 2025 reaching 160 billion yuan, doubling year-on-year [3] - Comparable companies are projected to have PS valuations of 52, 36, and 28 times from 2024 to 2026, with Cambrian expected to enjoy a valuation premium as a rare domestic AI chip player [3] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Market Insights - Solid-state batteries offer higher energy density, enhanced safety, and longer cycle life compared to traditional lithium batteries, positioning them as a key direction for next-generation power batteries [4] - Major automakers like BYD, GAC, and Changan have set timelines for solid-state battery deployment, with 2027 identified as a critical mass production year [4] - The solid-state battery market is projected to exceed 600 GWh in shipments by 2030, with a market size surpassing 250 billion yuan, indicating a period of rapid growth [4] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry Developments - By the end of 2024, SMIC is expected to have a total capacity of 421,000 wafers per month, making it the largest and most advanced foundry in mainland China [5] - SMIC operates multiple 200mm and 300mm wafer fabs in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Tianjin, with plans to add three new 12-inch production lines [5] - The domestic demand for AI chips is strong, and SMIC's advanced process capacity is expected to fill part of the domestic computing chip demand due to overseas flow limitations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential adjustments in NVIDIA's CoWoS packaging orders with TSMC, highlighting the cautious approach of TSMC regarding capacity expansion and the market's optimistic expectations for NVIDIA's chip production plans [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS expansion plan remains unchanged, with a gradual increase to approximately 70,000 wafers per month by December 2025 [1]. - TSMC's 5/4nm process is currently fully loaded, and NVIDIA's chip production volume has increased compared to earlier this year [1]. Group 2: NVIDIA's Production Plans - There are rumors that NVIDIA's CoWoS wafer allocation for 2025 has been revised down from over 400,000 to around 380,000, which may stem from overly optimistic expectations from market participants [2]. - The transition period between NVIDIA's B200 and B300 series products has been significantly accelerated, leading to changes in production plans that may be misinterpreted as order cuts [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - TSMC has been cautious about capacity expansion, and significant order cuts are not expected unless there is a drastic shift in industry trends [2]. - Historical context shows that during peak market sentiment, NVIDIA had requested TSMC to increase CoWoS capacity to 100,000 wafers per month, which was declined by TSMC [2].

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's recent earnings report did not meet market expectations, leading to a decline in AI stocks, with supply chain sources indicating a reduction in advanced packaging orders from TSMC [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Product and Market Dynamics - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong market demand for the Blackwell series, with gross margins expected to remain around 70% during the ramp-up phase [1]. - The upcoming GTC event will showcase new products like Blackwell Ultra and GB300, with expectations for faster integration based on previous experiences with GB200 [2]. - The transition from the Hopper architecture to Blackwell architecture is underway, with production challenges noted due to lower yield rates of the new CoWoS-L packaging technology [4]. Group 2: TSMC's Capacity and Order Adjustments - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity remains near full utilization, but there are indications of a potential decrease in orders as the lifecycle of NVIDIA's previous GPU generation ends [1][3]. - Reports suggest that TSMC's CoWoS average monthly capacity has dropped to 62,500 wafers, below the expected 70,000 wafers, with NVIDIA's monthly orders also reduced from approximately 42,000 to 39,000 wafers [3]. - Despite rumors of order cuts, TSMC has denied these claims, stating that demand for CoWoS remains strong and that any perceived reductions may be due to process upgrades and product transitions [2][3]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Industry Trends - TSMC is ramping up production at its newly acquired facilities to meet the growing demand for advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS-L and SoIC [4]. - The industry anticipates that the new Rubin GPU and Vera CPU developments will contribute positively to market dynamics, with production expected to begin early next year [2].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has announced a record high performance bonus and remuneration of NT$140.59 billion for 2024, reflecting the company's strong financial performance and employee compensation strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Employee Bonuses and Compensation - TSMC's board has approved a total of NT$140.59 billion for employee performance bonuses and remuneration for 2024, marking a historical high [1][2]. - Employees are expected to receive bonuses equivalent to 3.5 to 7 months of salary, with some engineers reporting bonuses as high as NT$400,000 [1]. - The performance evaluation system categorizes employees into levels such as O (Outstanding), S (Successful), I (Improvement Needed), and U (Unacceptable), with the top 10% receiving the highest ratings [1]. Group 2: Bonus Distribution Schedule - TSMC typically distributes bonuses in five installments throughout the year, specifically in February, May, August, and November, with the remaining half distributed after the annual shareholders' meeting [2].

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor industry is undergoing a dual transformation driven by AI and geopolitical restructuring, with intense competition among international investment banks regarding the strategic positioning and market outlook of SMIC [1] Group 1: Morgan Stanley's Downgrade of SMIC - In February 2025, Morgan Stanley downgraded SMIC's H-share rating from "Neutral" to "Underweight," reflecting concerns over the company's business growth momentum and profitability for 2025 [3] - The optimistic guidance for Q1 2025 is largely dependent on government subsidies and pre-tariff order rush, which are unsustainable factors [3] - The Chinese wafer foundry industry is entering a capacity release peak from 2025 to 2026, indicating a trend of supply-side overcapacity [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance and Concerns - SMIC's revenue has rapidly increased from $336 million in 2018 to $803 million in 2024, driven by market expansion and supportive domestic policies [4] - Despite record revenue, rising costs have raised concerns about "increasing revenue without increasing profit," with a gross margin of only 18% in 2024, down from 20.8% in 2023 [4][5] - The market sentiment is pessimistic about SMIC's growth momentum for 2025, with expectations that gross margins may remain below 20% due to ongoing pricing pressures in the mature process segment [5] Group 3: Goldman Sachs' Upgrade of SMIC - In February 2025, Goldman Sachs upgraded SMIC's H-share rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," reflecting optimism about the company's business under product mix adjustments and the moderate impact of pricing pressures and depreciation [6] - Goldman Sachs expects SMIC to benefit from the strategic demand for localized semiconductor production, with long-term revenue growth being highly certain [6] - The capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to remain high at $750 million, indicating a coherent long-term capacity expansion plan [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Strategic Positioning - The divergence in ratings from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs reflects the dual tensions of "cyclicality vs. growth" and "globalization vs. localization" in the semiconductor industry [8] - SMIC's valuation is increasingly tied to geopolitical factors, technological breakthroughs, and industrial policies, making it a strategic barometer for observing China's technological advancements [8] - The next five years will be critical for SMIC as it transitions from "capacity expansion" to "quality breakthroughs," necessitating a dynamic perspective on short-term fluctuations and long-term value [8]

极氪、领克整合工作继续，吉利控股和沃尔沃汽车退出股东序列。 据天眼查信息，2 月 12 日，沃尔沃、吉利控股退出了领克汽车科技有限公司股东行列。 去年 9 月，吉利集团发布《台州宣言》后，开始一系列内部整合。极氪控股领克是标志之一，去年 11 月，吉利公告，沃尔沃原持有的领克 30% 股份会出售给极氪，整合后，极氪对领克的持股比例 为 51%，成为领克最大股东。 两个品牌重新划分了产品路线，领克将主攻 20 万及以上市场，小型车聚焦纯电、中大型车聚焦混 动；极氪主攻 30 万以上市场，以中大型车为主，中型车主做纯电，大型车主做电混。2025 年，极 氪和领克的销量目标是 71 万台，要比去年增长近 40%。它们已经共享研发、供应链等资源，据我 们了解，领克即将上市的 SUV 900 的高阶智驾系统由极氪智驾团队提供。 四家中国品牌在东南亚卖了 6050 万部手机。 据 Canalys 数据，东南亚市场去年卖出了 9670 万部智能手机，大约是中国市场的三分之一，其中 约 6050 万部来自四家中国品牌，分别是 OPPO 约 1690 万部、vivo 约 1260 万部、小米约 1550 万 部、传音约 155 ...