摘要 1、今天，A股成功收红，半导体板块回暖，中药、医疗等板块涨幅居前。 2、刚刚，央行指出将根据国内外经济金融形势择机降准降息。外资集体看好，后市会怎么走？ 3、即将迎来的"四月决断"会如何演绎？复盘历史，这些板块在4月上涨概率超过80%！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1325 篇白话财经- - 在昨晚美股大跌的背景下，A股港股走出了独立行情，集体收涨。 但是仅有不足1.2万亿的成交额让今天的A股有些"食之无味"了。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/3/27，不作投资推荐） 分析人士认为，随着国内宏观调控、促增长政策持续落地推进，A股短期调整后将重拾升势，风格将进入再平衡阶段。 A股回暖，两大利好来袭！ 对于今天市场的回暖，分析人士认为，主要有两大原因。 一个，是在外围不确定性下，外资集体看好中国市场。 昨晚，特朗普宣布对所有进口汽车征收25%关税，引发美股市场回调。 分析人士认为，由于美联储缩表还在持续，全球资产现在似乎都处于一个存量博弈的状态，在美股表现出色的时候，中国资产往往相对落后，反之亦然。 而外资集体唱多中国股市，也超出了预期，让市场情绪开始回暖。 高盛在最新的报告中 ...

财政部发布2024年中国财政政策执行情况报告（简称"报告"）。 原文如下： 2024年中国财政政策执行情况报告 综述 报告指出，2025年财政政策要更加积极，持续用力、更加给力，具体体现在五个方面： 报告还指出，支持全方位扩大国内需求。大力提振消费。加大民生保障力度，多渠道增加居民收入。推进实施提振消费专项行动，加大消费品以旧换新支持 力度。适当提高退休人员基本养老金，提高城乡居民基础养老金和城乡居民基本医疗保险财政补助标准等。推进实施国家综合货运枢纽补链强链提升行动、 公路水路交通基础设施数字化转型升级，推动降低全社会物流成本。积极扩大有效投资。统筹用好各类政府投资资金，聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节加大投资力 度。合理安排政府债券发行，加快政府债券资金预算下达，尽早形成实物工作量。 2024年是实现"十四五"规划目标任务的关键一年。面对外部压力加大、内部困难增多的严峻复杂形势，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区 各部门深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精神，按照党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实 推动高质量发展，全年主要发展目标顺利完成，中国式现代化 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights two key timing points for investment opportunities in 2025: the first is in early April when external risks are expected to materialize, creating trading opportunities, particularly in the technology sector due to its weak macroeconomic correlation and strong industrial catalysts [1] - The second key timing point is mid-year when the economic and policy cycles of China and the U.S. are expected to synchronize, potentially leading to a fourth round of economic stimulus in China since 2013, which could alleviate valuation pressures on core Chinese assets [1] - The article suggests that the market may experience a significant style shift as traditional core assets begin to show performance inflection points, marking one of the most important style transitions since 2021 [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-position themes with stable performance, such as low-position consumption themes, AI+ themes, and commercial aerospace, as high-position themes are expected to experience volatility [3] - It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of consumption stimulus policies and the upcoming AI platform and product meetings by internet companies, which could serve as catalysts for investment [3] - The article outlines a thematic recommendation portfolio consisting of ten stocks for investors to consider, focusing on those with strong order certainty and relatively low valuation levels [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the impact of the AI revolution on China's economy, noting that short-term capital expenditures related to AI are expected to significantly boost macro demand, with a projected increase of 149.8 billion yuan in capital expenditures from major domestic firms by 2025 [5] - It highlights that the current wave of AI capital expenditure could serve as an additional driving force for traditional economic cycles, enhancing productivity across various industries [5] - In the medium to long term, the AI revolution is anticipated to increase overall productivity growth by 1-2%, although it may reduce the number of jobs created per unit of GDP growth [5] Group 4 - The article identifies three major opportunities in the real estate sector, including sufficient supply-side reform, unprecedented positioning of large-scale consumption, and consistently positive market transaction data [15] - It draws parallels between the automotive industry's previous policy measures and future expectations for real estate policies, suggesting that insights from the automotive sector could inform the direction of the real estate market [15] - The article indicates that the overall demand for traditional Chinese medicine is expected to remain strong due to policy support and an aging population, with industry consolidation likely to favor leading companies [20]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are seen as having strategic allocation value, particularly in high-end manufacturing, AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and smart vehicles, referred to as "new core assets" [1][2] - The domestic economy is expected to experience marginal slowdown in the second quarter, with a focus on the allocation value of ultra-long bonds [1][16] Equity Market - CITIC Securities believes that A-share "new core assets" are gearing up for an upward trend, suggesting a focus on high-end manufacturing, AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and smart vehicles [2] - CITIC Jiantou emphasizes that "AI+" remains a core theme in the medium term, with the A-share market showing independent performance despite declines in the US market [3] - UBS predicts that the US stock market will underperform compared to European and emerging markets in the next 1-3 months, with risks of further declines in the S&P 500 index [4] Industry Research - Huashan Fund suggests a cautious approach to gold investments, emphasizing the need for rational investment strategies amid uncertain future market conditions [8][9] - Yinhua Fund highlights the promising prospects of the AI healthcare market, projecting a growth rate exceeding 25%, with the market size approaching 30 billion yuan by 2028 [10] - Zhonggeng Fund notes that the home appliance sector has seen significant gains, driven by government support for consumption and the integration of AI technologies [11] Macro and Fixed Income - Huaxia Fund indicates that the bond market's fluctuations are tied to the re-evaluation of economic recovery and policy rhythms, advocating for a diversified approach to bond investments [14] - Huashang Fund points out improvements in the supply-demand dynamics for convertible bonds, suggesting a defensive strategy while capturing structural opportunities [15] - Boshi Fund anticipates a marginal slowdown in the domestic economy in the second quarter, recommending a focus on the allocation value of ultra-long bonds [16] Asset Allocation - Fuguo Fund observes a shift from a "technology bull" market to a "consumption bull" market, driven by policy stimuli that encourage investment in consumer sectors [18]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of digital technology with traditional industries, focusing on the application of large models in various sectors, particularly in smart connected vehicles and intelligent manufacturing equipment [10][13] - It highlights the importance of safety as a prerequisite for new technologies, advocating for a self-controllable AI ecosystem [14][16] - The report outlines the trends of AI model capability enhancement, the deployment of 5G-A and 6G as foundational technologies for large-scale AI applications, and the fusion of AI with traditional industries to drive efficiency and cost reduction [25][31][37] Summary by Sections Government Work Report - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the need to boost domestic demand, integrate digital technology with traditional industries, and promote the empowerment of large models [10] - It outlines key tasks such as fostering emerging industries, enhancing traditional industry upgrades, and stimulating digital economy innovation [12][18] Industry Trends - Trend 1: The enhancement of model capabilities is shifting the industry focus towards applications and edge computing [25][30] - Trend 2: The commercialization of 5G-A and 6G will provide the necessary communication infrastructure for large-scale AI applications [31][34] - Trend 3: The integration of AI with traditional industries is expected to lead to significant cost savings and efficiency improvements [37][47] - Trend 4: The improvement of domestic model capabilities and data security will promote the prosperity of edge hardware [60][63] AI Applications - The report discusses specific applications of AI in sectors such as healthcare, agriculture, and manufacturing, showcasing successful case studies that demonstrate efficiency gains and cost reductions [40][41][51][56] - It highlights the role of AI in enhancing product quality and accelerating innovation in manufacturing, with projections indicating substantial growth in the sector due to AI adoption [54][58]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the technology sector, suggesting potential weakness in the near term due to declining trading volumes and mixed performance across various sectors [1][14]. Core Insights - The market experienced slight declines with major indices showing a downward trend, particularly in the TMT sector, which is expected to face further weakness [1][2]. - There is a notable shift in capital flows, with significant inflows into power, automotive parts, and general equipment sectors, while communication equipment, components, and semiconductors saw outflows [3]. - The report highlights the government's initiatives to enhance vocational education in healthcare and the development of a humanoid robot innovation center, indicating a focus on technology and healthcare sectors [4][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On March 19, the market showed fluctuations with major indices declining slightly, with the North Stock 50 Index dropping nearly 3% [2]. Capital Flow - On March 19, the Shanghai Stock Exchange saw a net inflow of 1.488 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange experienced a net outflow of 6.550 billion [3]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Education and the National Health Commission are working together to strengthen vocational education in healthcare, aiming to meet the diverse health and elderly care needs [4][7]. - The establishment of a humanoid robot innovation center is set to launch a general embodied intelligence platform, enhancing the robotics sector [8][9]. Fund Dynamics - The rise of index funds is reshaping the public fund distribution landscape, challenging the traditional dominance of banks in fund sales [11]. - Public fund research activities have intensified, with a focus on "double innovation" companies, indicating a trend towards more dynamic investment strategies [12][13]. Buyer Perspectives - Recent trends show increased divergence within the technology sector, with a shift towards value stocks and a focus on upcoming financial reports for investment insights [14].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining at the close, while the ChiNext and Northbound 50 indices remained strong [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12% to 3316.93 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.36% to 10649.59 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.2% to 2196.52 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Northbound markets was 166.45 billion yuan, a decrease of over 240 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] Sector Performance - The solid-state battery concept surged, with companies like Wuhan Blue Electric, Liwang Co., and Lijia Technology hitting the 30% limit up [9] - The non-ferrous metal sector also performed strongly, with stocks like Yuanhang Precision and Yongsan Lithium Industry seeing gains of over 10% [5] - The AI medical sector was active, with stocks such as Qidi Pharmaceutical and Beirui Gene reaching their daily limit [13] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metal sector saw significant gains, with Yongsan Lithium Industry and Guocheng Mining both hitting the limit up [5][6] - The global cobalt market is expected to improve significantly due to the Democratic Republic of the Congo's announcement to suspend cobalt exports for four months, potentially reducing global supply by nearly 50,000 tons [7] Solid-State Battery Development - Major battery manufacturers are aligning their timelines for solid-state battery production, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 and mass production by 2030 [11] - The solid-state battery industry is anticipated to see significant investment opportunities, particularly in battery materials, equipment, and resources [11] AI Medical Innovations - The launch of AI health models by Guangdong Second People's Hospital and Huawei marks a significant step in the commercialization of AI in healthcare [15] - The "Guanxin" AI heart model developed by Fudan University and Shanghai Institute of Science and Technology is expected to enhance early screening and diagnosis of heart diseases [15][16] - The commercialization of AI medical models is projected to create new growth points for the healthcare industry, attracting more capital and technological investment [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of AI technology on investment opportunities and challenges, highlighting the emergence of new investment strategies and sectors driven by AI advancements. Group 1: AI Technology and Investment Opportunities - The emergence of DeepSeek is reshaping the localization logic of AI in China, with historical precedents indicating that each technological breakthrough creates a new wave of successful companies [3] - DeepSeek is seen as a pivotal moment for China, potentially transforming weak applications into strong AI applications, leading to significant growth stories worth trillions of dollars [3] - Investment strategies are focusing on two main logics: AI+X, where AI serves as infrastructure empowering various industries, and X+AI, which targets upgrades in smart hardware [4] Group 2: AI in Healthcare and Other Sectors - The introduction of DeepSeek is expected to democratize technology, allowing traditional software companies to adopt AI, thus lowering the barriers for enterprises and individuals to utilize AI services [5] - AI applications in healthcare are anticipated to create new business models, particularly for companies that can help pharmaceutical firms reduce R&D costs and time [5][6] - Current AI applications are in a rapid iteration phase, with sectors like humanoid robots and AI healthcare poised for significant growth [6] Group 3: Investment Dynamics and Market Trends - The rapid development of AI models like DeepSeek is leading to an era of investment democratization, enabling ordinary investors to leverage complex models for stock analysis and asset allocation [8] - The market is currently experiencing a phase where investors are enthusiastic about AI, but there is a need to match asset quality with pricing to avoid volatility [9] - As the market matures, the focus will shift from thematic investments to fundamental-based investments, with a need for caution as valuations may reach their limits [10]

下一个黄金赛道。 作者 I 岳笑笑 报道 I 投资界PEdaily 黄仁勋又出手了。 本周，黄仁勋现身越南，期间宣布一则消息：英伟达已收购越南医疗保健初创公司 Vi nBr a i n。 这一笔交易看似意外，却又有迹可循。今年以来，黄仁勋在多个公开场合强烈表示了对AI医疗的狂热。这一次，他买下越南明星AI医 疗大模型公司——Vi nBr a i n，成为押注AI医疗的又一注脚。如今打开Vi nBr a i n的官网，"Vi nBr a i n is now a pa rt of NVIDIA"的通知 已经出现在主页。 买了一个AI医疗团队 被黄仁勋看中，Vi nBr a i n有何来头？ 资料显示，Vi nBr a i n的创始人是St e ve n Tr u on g。他曾在人工智能和软件行业工作了26年，就职于霍尼韦尔、I n t e lliCommuniti e s等顶 级技术公司，还是微软人工智能产品平台的关键发起人。 图源官网 2019年，St e ve n Tr uong回到越南，在照顾中风的年迈母亲时，他感受到到医院过度拥挤给患者及其家人带来的不便。结合自身经 历，他产生了将AI与医疗结合创业的 ...

我的房贷是2016年打85折的时候批的，曾经我以为30年都不会提前还，但最近我也在重新判断这件事。 美国国会大厦降半旗，网传拜统领染冠状病毒去世，已经辟谣，死的是另一个黑人女议员。但即便如 此，把今日大跌归因这个不合理，因为今日全球有涨有跌，其中a股跌幅遥遥领先，还是内部流动性出 了问题。 现在每天都有大量资金流出a股，跌到2900都无法动摇他们卖出的决心，人各有志，没啥说的。 之前2900+我说值博率低，要连续出现像今天这种跌法，跌到股市鬼哭狼嚎，跌到股民破口大骂，骂天 骂地骂社会骂政府骂大v骂自己，集体出现极端情绪的时候可能会考虑加一点指数期货做个短线反弹， 不然宁可错过也不愿伸手。 a股没有那种不能错过的投资机会，提醒自己不要为了拣几颗豆子吃一嘴巴的屎。 …… 1、长江证券出的一份研报罗列了一个数据，就是今年的二季度（4-6月）公募一共发行了232亿主动权 益基金，但同期内赎回了2634亿，也就是说整个二季度净赎回了2401亿，每个月800亿。这个规模不小 了，我觉得可以在某种程度上解释抛盘的来源。基民们哀莫大于心死，就算大幅亏损也决意离开不回 头。有些诈骗只会上一次当，我觉得这些割肉离去的投资者这辈子 ...