Core Viewpoint - The Guinean government has revoked 51 mining licenses, including those for bauxite, gold, diamonds, graphite, and iron ore, which significantly impacts the global supply of bauxite, a critical raw material for aluminum production [2][3]. Group 1: Mining Policy Changes - Guinea, as the world's second-largest bauxite producer, holds about 25% of global reserves, making its mining policies crucial for the industrial metal market [2]. - The Axis mining area, which has a projected bauxite output of approximately 23 million tons in 2024, has been ordered to halt operations, raising concerns about supply shortages [2][3]. - The Guinean transitional authorities have designated several mining areas, including Axis, as strategic reserve zones, indicating a long-term suspension of mining activities [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The revocation of mining licenses has led to panic in the market regarding bauxite supply disruptions, particularly affecting Chinese imports, which account for over 60% of Guinea's bauxite exports [5]. - Following the announcement, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite dropped to $70 per ton, while domestic alumina futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a limit-up increase of over 6% shortly after the news [5]. - The SMM alumina index rose to 2988.65 yuan per ton on May 19, reflecting a 3.19% increase from earlier in the month, indicating rising production costs for aluminum [6]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The increase in alumina prices is expected to compress profit margins for electrolytic aluminum producers in China, potentially impacting 45 million tons of production capacity [6]. - The changes in Guinea's mining policies are seen as a move to secure more benefits for the local government ahead of the upcoming elections in December 2025, reflecting a trend of resource nationalism [7]. - Chinese companies, such as Tianshan Aluminum, are adapting by securing local mining rights and establishing production capabilities in Guinea to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions [7][8]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The aluminum industry must navigate the risks posed by resource nationalism and the changing political landscape in Guinea, which could lead to increased operational uncertainties [8][9]. - Companies are advised to enhance their assessment of the impacts of mining policy changes on their operations and to diversify their resource acquisition strategies to ensure supply chain stability [9].

5月22日晚间，宏创控股（002379）(002379.SZ)正式披露了收购大股东旗下铝业优质核心资产山东宏拓 实业有限公司(以下简称"宏拓实业")的草案，公司拟通过发行股份的方式收购宏拓实业100%股权，交易 对价金额约635亿元，创下了近年来A股上市公司并购交易规模的新纪录。 交易结束后，宏创控股将彻底摆脱过去长期以来盈利能力不足的局面，有望成为一家营收与市值双超千 亿元、具备全球竞争力的铝业新航母，其主营业务将涵盖铝产品全产业链，注入资产2024年利润规模超 过百亿元。目前，相关交易草案已获上市公司董事会通过，尚需获得上市公司股东大会及监管机构的批 准。 优质资产注入催化盈利跃升百亿，高股息基因重塑铝业股东回报新高度 根据公告，此次交易标的宏拓实业的资产评估价为约635亿元，宏创控股将以每股5.34元的定价，向宏 拓实业的股东山东魏桥铝电有限公司(以下简称"魏桥铝电")等交易对方发行约118.95亿股新股，以支付 本次交易的对价。交易完成后，宏创控股资产规模将突破千亿，净利润由负转正并大幅提升至百亿元以 上。 公开资料显示，宏拓实业为港股上市公司中国宏桥(1378.HK)旗下的核心资产。本次交易完成后， ...

证券代码：000612 证券简称：焦作万方 焦作万方铝业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | 编号：2025（投）-001 | | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研□分析师会议 | | 类别 | □媒体采访√业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会□路演活动 | | □现场参观 | | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称及 | 投资者网上提问 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 2025 | 年 5 月 22 日 (周四) 下午 14:30~17:40 | | 地点 | 公司通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台"（https://ir.p5w.net） | | | 采用网络远程的方式召开业绩说明会 | | 上市公司接待人 | 1、总经理谢军 | | 员姓名 | 2、财务总监焦纪芳 | | | 3、董事会秘书吴永锭 投资者提出的主要问题及公司回复情况 | | | 公司就投资者在本次说明会中提出的主要问题进行了回复： 1、本次重组进度如何呢? | | | 您好，目前标的公司的审计、评估等工作正在进行中，请您 | | | 关注公司公告，谢谢。 | | | 2、对于 ...

工业金属 2025 年 05 月 22 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 有色金属/ 新疆铝产业白皮书 看好 —— 资源禀赋筑成本优势，能源转型谱绿色新篇 本期投资提示： 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 新疆是国内电解铝主产地之一，电力成本优势突出。受益于新疆煤炭资源丰富、开采成 本较低，新疆地区电力成本稳定，是我国目前电解铝主产地中电价最具优势的区域之 一。新疆煤炭资源预测储量达 2.19 万亿吨，占全国总量约 40%，开采成本低。而电解 铝生产需 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-22 现货升水走强，消费不减热度 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20310元/吨，较上一交易日上涨100元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于80元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20240元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日持平于0元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录20210元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨5元/吨至-30元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-05-21日沪铝主力合约开于20135元/吨，收于20190元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨130元/ 吨，涨幅0.65%，最高价达20220元/吨，最低价达到20120元/吨。全天交易日成交116735手，较上一交易日增 加10293手，全天交易日持仓200224手，较上一交易日增加458手。 库存方面，截止2025-05-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存58.5万吨。截止2025-05-21，LME铝库存388900 吨，较前一交易日减少2025吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-05-21 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3125元/吨，山东价格录得3050元/吨，广西价格录得 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of Guinea's mining policy changes on the alumina market, particularly the withdrawal of mining licenses, which raises concerns about reduced supply and increased production costs for alumina [1][2][4] - Guinea's government has declared several mining rights, including bauxite, iron ore, and gold, as strategic reserve areas, which means these resources will not be available for regular commercial mining in the short term [2][3] - In April 2025, China's alumina imports reached a record high of 20.68 million tons, with Guinea being the largest supplier, accounting for 16.73 million tons, reflecting a 25.67% month-on-month increase and a 45.44% year-on-year increase [3][4] Group 2 - The recent disruptions in Guinea's mining sector are expected to support alumina prices in the short term due to supply concerns, although the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to potential overcapacity in the alumina industry [6][8] - Analysts suggest that if the situation in Guinea does not stabilize, the ongoing supply disruptions could lead to further price increases for alumina, with each $1 increase in bauxite prices potentially raising alumina costs by 30 CNY per ton [9] - The market is closely monitoring the recovery of production capacities and the impact of Guinea's mining policies on alumina and aluminum prices, as any prolonged supply issues could significantly affect the industry [7][8]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 2 2 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝大涨分析及后市展望 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年5月21日氧化铝大涨，主要源于几内亚矿端扰动。几内亚是全球第一大铝土矿生产国、我国第 一大铝土矿进口国 ，当地时间5月16日上午，几内亚矿业局对Axis矿区下达停工指令，该矿区涉及 产能约4000万吨/年，2024年实产2300万吨，目前恢复时间不明。这是继5月15日几内亚政府吊销46 家矿业公司采矿证后，铝土矿供给扰动的进一步升级。 从基本面来看，当前国内氧化铝企业开工率下滑，处于年内低位，检修产能较多，供应压力减弱， 现货货源收紧，库存出现明显下滑。下游电解铝企业的开工率却保持在97%的高位，且季节性特征 显示，电解铝的高开工会持续到9月份。 短期来看，铝土矿扰动叠加供给端收缩，氧化铝市场情绪回暖，有利于价格反弹修复。 但从中期视角， ...

铝土矿氧化铝后市展望 20250521 摘要 氧化铝行业经历高开工后，随着新产能释放，供过于求压力增大，导致 价格从高利润向亏损边际转变。近期价格反弹主要因前期行业减产导致 供应紧张，提货困难和现货短缺支撑了价格。 氧化铝与电解铝运行比值是评估市场供应状况的关键指标，超过 2.05 表明过剩，低于 2.05 趋紧，低于 2 则供应紧张。2024 年进口矿使用比 例显著上升至 70%-80%，国产矿大幅减少，几内亚矿石占比高，影响 全国成本。 几内亚矿石价格波动直接影响国内氧化铝生产成本，运输周期约为两个 月。若能使用 70 美元/吨的矿石，山西、河南等地成本或降至 2,900 元/ 吨，沿海地区降至 2,700 元/吨，成本降幅预计 300-400 元/吨。 氧化铝行业利润快速下滑至亏损，企业通过检修式和战略性减产应对。 4 月底全国 21 家企业停工或检修涉及 900 万吨产能，部分已恢复，总 运行水平将从 8,600 万吨向 9,000 万吨递增。 今年国内氧化铝新项目投产进展显著，文峰、华生等项目预计新增产能 约 1,000 万吨，魏桥集团产能置换也在推进。电解铝需求稳定增长，但 受设备维护和价格回升影 ...

晨报 铝锭 几内亚事件对当地铝土矿供应的具体影响有待评估，短期在情绪上给 予成本端支撑。步入淡季库存面临积累压力，短期铝价预计区间偏强运行。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 21 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间震荡。宏观方面，受美联储对经济的谨慎态度拖累， 美元在周二再次下跌；国内释放货币政策宽松信号，改善 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral. Arbitrage: Long the near contract and short the far contract for SHFE aluminum [4] Core View - The conflict between Israel and Iran may escalate, and the EU's approval of sanctions against Russia could drive up aluminum prices. However, the approaching traditional off - season, the possible end of the rush to export, and the slowdown of social inventory destocking may limit the upward momentum of aluminum prices. For alumina, although the spot follows the strong trend of the futures, the supply surplus expectation remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On May 20, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,140 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,100 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,050 yuan/ton, closed at 20,075 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton or - 0.45% from the previous trading day [1] Alumina Spot and Futures - On May 20, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,075 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,000 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,075 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract opened at 3,149 yuan/ton, closed at 3,134 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.42% from the previous trading day [2] Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 585,000 tons. As of May 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 390,925 tons, down 2,525 tons from the previous trading day [1] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas factors may push up aluminum prices, but the approaching off - season and weakening fundamentals may limit the upward movement. Aluminum rod production is still strong, and the production of aluminum sheets, strips and foils is slightly weaker but still at a high level. Attention should be paid to social inventory changes and overseas interference [3] - **Alumina**: The spot price follows the strong trend of the futures. The futures price rises due to disturbances at the Guinean ore end. Although the supply of bauxite is expected to be sufficient even if the Axis mine stops production, there are concerns about the expansion of restrictions. The supply surplus expectation of alumina remains unchanged [3]