热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 封帆 重要数据 铝 截至2025-12-12，伦铝收盘于2875.0美元/吨，沪铝主力收盘于22170元/吨，华东现货升贴水-50元/吨， 中原地区现货升贴水-120元/吨，佛山地区现货升贴水-160元/吨。 LME铝现货升贴水（0-3）-26.7美元/ 吨。 供应：截至2025-12-12，电解铝建成产能4527.2万吨，周度环比+2.0万吨，运行产能4446.4万吨，周度环 比+2.0万吨，行业开工率98.22%。 需求：根据钢联数据统计，铝棒周度产量36.06万吨，周度环比变化-0.17万吨，铝板带箔周度产量37.14 万吨，周度环比变化-0.21万吨。根据上海有色数据统计，铝线缆龙头企业开工率62.40%，周度环比变 化+0.00%，铝板带龙头企业开工率65.00%，周度环比变化+0.00%，铝箔龙头企业开工率70.40%，周度 环比变化+0.00%，铝型材开工率53.00%，周度环比变化+1.00%。 库存：截至2025-12-11，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存58.4万吨，周度变化-1.2万吨，铝棒库存11.7 万吨，周度 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石供应恢复， 氧化铝供应变动不大 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 12 月 14 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿石供应恢复，氧化铝供应变动不大 有 色 金 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 698 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。国产矿市场呈现明显的"以矿定产" 特征，春节前夕国产矿生产节奏将保持平稳有序状态。进口方面， 几内亚主流报价稳定于 CIF 71 美元/吨。一季度长单定价预期 CIF 69-70 美元/吨。几内亚大型矿企将于几内亚时间 12 月 13 日 恢复生产，集港与海运同步重启，1-7 月该企发货量约 1700 万湿 吨。期内新到矿石 354.4 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 291.4 万吨， 澳大利亚资源 62.9 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 22 美元/吨，价格明显下行。 属 氧化铝： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rainy season in Guinea is over, and the AXIS mine is resuming production, so the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost level of Guinea's ore. - The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. - The current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, so the expectation of subsequent production cuts is increasing. The overall non - ferrous metal sector is showing strong performance, so the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on December 12, the alumina index dropped 2.42% to 2544 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 35,000 lots to 638,000 lots. Supply surplus, falling ore prices, and approaching delivery of expired warehouse receipts drove the alumina futures price down continuously. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The delivery game led to a large discount of the futures price. The spread between the first and the third consecutive contracts closed at - 155 yuan/ton, and the spread was widening [11]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline of alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 57,000 tons to 5.061 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 16,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 62,000 tons, and decreased by 11,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.16 million tons to 254,900 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 258,800 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week [11]. - **Mineral End**: Recently, domestic bauxite production has declined due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south. The price of domestic ore remains firm, but alumina plants' willingness to push down prices has increased due to shrinking profits. For imported ore, after the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume has increased. The AXIS mine, which stopped operation in May this year, has gradually resumed production, which may further exacerbate the bauxite surplus situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - **Supply Side**: As of December 13, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 1.859 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week [12]. - **Import and Export**: As of December 12, the FOB price in Australia remained at $312 per ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 58 yuan/ton. The import window was closed [12]. - **Demand Side**: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.64 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The decline of alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed this week. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on December 12, the alumina index dropped 2.42% to 2544 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 35,000 lots to 638,000 lots. Supply surplus, falling ore prices, and approaching delivery of expired warehouse receipts drove the alumina futures price down continuously. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The delivery game led to a large discount of the futures price. The spread between the first and the third consecutive contracts closed at - 155 yuan/ton, and the spread was widening [24]. - **Bauxite Price**: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ore, the CIF price of Guinea decreased by $0.5 to $70 per ton, and that of Australia decreased by $0.5 to $67.5 per ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume has increased. The AXIS mine, which stopped operation in May this year, has gradually resumed production, which may further exacerbate the bauxite surplus situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In November 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 55.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. Affected by environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production has been decreasing month by month [31]. - **Bauxite Import**: In October 2025, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. The total imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 171.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11%. From the perspective of import sources, in October 2025, China imported 900 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. The cumulative imports from Guinea in the first ten months of 2025 were 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, the imports decreased, and it is expected to gradually recover. In October 2025, China imported 3.82 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The cumulative imports from Australia in the first ten months of 2025 were 31.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [33][35][37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In November, China's bauxite inventory increased by 0.78 million tons to 53.29 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 0.27 million tons, and that in Henan decreased by 0.47 million tons in November. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In November 2025, alumina production was 7.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 82.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19%. In terms of operating capacity, in November 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 95.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%. As of December 12, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 1.859 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week [42][45]. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The alumina spot price has declined. Although the raw material prices have also decreased, the profits of alumina plants are still under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on December 12, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic ore, the current production profit can reach 100 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian ore and Guinea ore in Shandong are 20 yuan/ton and - 50 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The transportation cost of imported ore from ports for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the gross profits of using overseas ore in Shanxi and Henan have dropped to 170 yuan/ton and 100 yuan/ton respectively [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, the net import of alumina was 13,600 tons. The opening of the previous import window led to the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 60,000 tons last month to 189,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 246,400 tons to 175,700 tons. The total net export in the first ten months of 2025 was 1.4375 million tons. As of December 12, the FOB price in Australia remained at $312 per ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 58 yuan/ton [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In November 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 57.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.42% [54]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 40.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.67% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.64 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The document provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated) and the cumulative data for 2025, including information on the supply - demand gap, total demand, net exports, total supply, export volume, import volume, electrolytic aluminum consumption of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity [65]. 3.6 Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 57,000 tons to 5.061 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 16,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 62,000 tons, and decreased by 11,000 tons respectively [70]. - **Alumina Futures Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.16 million tons to 254,900 tons this week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 258,800 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week [71].

（记者 王晓波） 南山铝业（600219.SH）12月12日在投资者互动平台表示，公司氧化铝产品分为国内和印尼两部分，印 尼氧化铝均对外销售；国内氧化铝大部分为公司内部自用，仅少量用于外销。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：在南山铝业2024年报中收入与成本分析中显示氧化铝 粉年销售额为840,499.15万元。那么印尼公司2024年实现营业收入728,673.45万元中，有多少是氧化铝粉 实现的营业收入？除了氧化铝粉还有什么产品销售收入？如果印尼公司的全部营业收入来自于氧化铝 粉，则推算出销售单价728,673.45∕219.98=3312元/吨，但是国内氧化铝粉销售单价为（840,499.15- 728,673.45）∕154=726元/吨。这显然是错误，请问这里可能造成投资者误解的原因是什么？ ...

Core Viewpoint - Weiqiao's entry into the automotive industry is driven by stagnation and profitability pressures in its traditional textile and aluminum sectors, prompting a strategic shift towards new growth opportunities in the automotive market [3][4][5]. Group 1: Company Background and Transition - Weiqiao, originally a textile giant, has expanded into aluminum production and is now venturing into the automotive sector, marking a significant cross-industry transformation [2][5]. - The company has a history of strategic expansion, starting from its foundation in 1951 as a cotton processing plant to becoming the world's largest cotton textile enterprise by 2003 and the largest aluminum producer by 2014 [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Traditional Industries - Both the textile and aluminum sectors are facing growth bottlenecks, with the textile division experiencing losses since 2022 due to adverse international trade conditions and supply chain disruptions [3][4]. - Regulatory pressures in the aluminum industry, including a crackdown on illegal production capacities, have further strained Weiqiao's profitability [3]. Group 3: Strategic Shift to Automotive - Weiqiao plans to invest at least 60 billion yuan (approximately 8.4 billion USD) over the next three years in the automotive sector, focusing on new energy vehicles and integrating its aluminum production capabilities into vehicle manufacturing [5][6]. - The company aims to leverage its aluminum expertise to enhance vehicle lightweighting, which is crucial for improving electric vehicle efficiency and range [8]. Group 4: Investment and Partnerships - Weiqiao's automotive strategy includes acquiring stakes in traditional car manufacturers and investing in new energy vehicle startups, such as a 10 billion USD investment in Shanghai Luoke Intelligent Technology [6][7]. - The establishment of the Shandong Weiqiao New Energy Vehicle Technology Group will oversee Weiqiao's automotive operations, consolidating its investments in various vehicle manufacturing and design companies [7]. Group 5: Product Development and Market Positioning - Weiqiao is developing a diverse range of vehicles, including fuel, hybrid, and electric models, with a focus on creating a brand cluster that spans multiple market segments [9]. - The company is positioning its new MPV brand, Ruisheng, to compete in the crowded market, aiming to establish itself as a leader by 2030 [9][10]. Group 6: Brand and Market Challenges - Weiqiao faces brand identity issues with its Beijing Automotive Manufacturing Plant, which is embroiled in a trademark dispute that could undermine its market position [10]. - The new Ruisheng brand must build recognition and credibility in a competitive MPV market, where it currently lacks visibility [10]. Group 7: Future Considerations - The transition from a B2B manufacturer to a consumer-facing brand poses significant challenges for Weiqiao, particularly in understanding and responding to consumer needs in the automotive sector [11].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in China's alumina production, indicating a positive trend in the industry with a projected increase in output and a detailed analysis of the market dynamics from 2026 to 2032 [1] Industry Summary - As of October 2025, China's alumina production reached 7.87 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative alumina production in China was 76.344 million tons, reflecting an 8% growth compared to the previous year [1] - The report provides insights into the development patterns and future prospects of the alumina industry in China, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning for stakeholders [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the alumina sector include China Aluminum (601600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), and others, indicating a diverse market landscape [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting serves as a comprehensive resource for industry analysis, offering tailored consulting services to support investment decisions in the alumina sector [1]

Group 1 - The company held its sixth extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on December 12, 2025, with no proposals rejected [1][2] - A total of 588 shareholders attended the meeting, representing 316,296,319 shares, which is 26.5305% of the total voting shares [8][10] - The meeting was conducted in compliance with relevant laws and regulations, and the chairman of the board, Mr. Yu Xuchun, presided over the meeting [7][8] Group 2 - The meeting approved the appointment of the auditing firm for the 2025 fiscal year, with 99.2632% of the votes in favor [14] - The proposal for a 400,000-ton annual production capacity recycling aluminum project was also approved, receiving 98.8377% of the votes in favor [15] Group 3 - The company plans to increase its alumina procurement from Zhejiang Jinlian International Trade Co., Ltd. to a maximum of 480,000 tons in 2026, with an estimated transaction amount of 1,392 million yuan [59][60] - The company also plans to sell up to 60,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum liquid to Jiaozuo Wanfang Group Co., Ltd. in 2026, with an estimated transaction amount of 1,222.82 million yuan [43][30] Group 4 - The company is in the process of issuing shares to acquire a 99.4375% stake in Cayman Aluminum (Sanmenxia) Co., Ltd., which constitutes a related party transaction and a major asset restructuring [36][40] - The transaction is subject to approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [37]

证券日报网讯 12月12日，南山铝业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司始终将投资者回报置于重 要战略位置，已通过公告明确2024-2026年现金分红比例不低于当年可分配利润的40%，并稳步推进股 份回购注销工作，以切实行动回馈股东信任。未来，公司将持续聚焦主业深耕，不断优化盈利结构，凭 借稳健的经营作风与清晰的发展路径，为股东创造长期、可持续的投资价值。 ...

研究所 几内亚矿企复产带来成本下降预期 氧化铝预计低位运行 多头情绪与基本面支撑犹在 沪铝预计震荡偏强 ——国信期货有色（铝产业链）周报 2025年12月12日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1 行情概览 研究所 宏观面：12月10日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从3.75%至4.00%下调至3.50%至 3.75%。至此，美联储连续第三次FOMC会议降息，每次均降25个基点，今年累计降75个基点。会后公布的点阵图显示，美联 储决策层的利率路径预测和三个月前公布点阵图时一致，依然预计明年会有一次25个基点的降息，意味着，明年的降息动作 将较今年明显放缓，亦符合市场预期。据最新CME"美联储观察"，美联储2026年1月降息25个基点的概率为22.1%，维持利 率不变的概率为77.9%。 重要消息：根据外网消息，隶属于几内亚国际集团（Guinea International Corporation）的几内亚本土企业 ——几内亚 铝矾土、氧化铝及铝业联盟（AGB2A-GIC ...

12月18日，海南自由贸易港将迎来全岛封关运作的历史性时刻。值此关键节点，12月11日至13日，每日 经济新闻与海南国际经济发展局联合主办的2025第十四届上市公司发展年会暨海南自贸港开放机遇交流 大会系列活动在海口举行。 当前，中国贸易顺差已突破万亿美元大关，出海成为经济增长的核心引擎之一。新背景下，企业出海如 何超越传统模式？在12月12日举行的主题为"新出海范式：产业链协同与中国优势的全球再造"的圆桌对 话上，南山铝业董事长吕正风、吉峰科技董事长田刚强、盛新锂能总经理邓伟军三位产业代表，与主持 人方正证券研究所副所长李鲁靖展开深度对话。 《每日经济新闻》记者现场了解到，中国企业出海已从"产品与成本"的竞争，跃升为"产业链能力与标 准体系"的协同输出。从铝业巨头的全链条海外产业园，到农业科技企业的"低空经济生态"出海，再到 锂电巨擘以ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）标准链接全球客户，一幅以"中国优势全球再造"为蓝图的出 海新画卷正在展开。 这场圆桌对话，不仅揭示了龙头企业们的战略升维，也为海南自贸港封关后如何成为出海"超级枢纽"提 供了关键注脚。 中企新出海范式：从单点突破到产业链与标准协同 宾坦岛位于印度 ...