Core Viewpoint - The upcoming third round of US-China trade negotiations will extend beyond economic issues to include China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran, highlighting deeper geopolitical and economic interests [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The US is not in a hurry to reach an agreement, emphasizing the importance of a "quality" deal rather than a rushed outcome, indicating a more cautious stance from the White House [1]. - Recent months have seen a slight easing in US-China relations, particularly in areas like rare earth exports and technology cooperation, but new demands are emerging as negotiations approach [1][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The US views China's oil purchases from Iran and Russia as contrary to its strategic interests, aiming to limit these transactions through trade agreements to maintain its global standing [3][5]. - Imposing such restrictions is seen as an infringement on China's sovereignty and a challenge to international trade norms, as China should have the freedom to choose its trading partners [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - The US's unilateral sanctions are deemed unacceptable under international law and could further deteriorate US-China relations, with domestic industrial interests also influencing these actions [5]. - China must remain calm and strategically firm in negotiations, defending its trade rights and leveraging its significant resources and consumer market as bargaining chips [5][7]. Group 4: Future Negotiation Dynamics - The upcoming negotiations will be a challenging game, with the US's request to limit China's oil imports from Russia and Iran affecting not only economic interests but also the international political landscape [7]. - Both parties need to find a balance that protects their interests while avoiding further conflict, as excessive pressure from the US may provoke a backlash from China [7].

Group 1 - The BRICS summit has become a battleground for various countries, with Brazil leading the charge for "de-dollarization" by urging nations to reduce reliance on the US dollar in international trade [1] - Trump's threats against BRICS nations, including a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, aim to deter countries from adopting anti-American policies, but have instead galvanized support for BRICS [3][12] - Brazil's response to US tariffs includes a potential 50% tax on US goods and a digital tax on American companies, showcasing its defiance against US pressure [5][13] Group 2 - Brazil's significant rare earth reserves of 21 million tons position it as a key player in the global supply chain, potentially allowing it to impact US access to these critical materials [7][15] - The actions taken by Brazil, including a tripling of rare earth exports to China, highlight its strategic maneuvering in response to US tariffs and threats [5][15] - The unity among BRICS nations, particularly India's unexpected strong stance against US tariffs, indicates a growing influence and resilience of the BRICS organization [12][17] Group 3 - The interest from Uruguay in joining the BRICS New Development Bank reflects the increasing appeal and influence of the BRICS organization amid US threats [12][18] - Trump's expectations of diminishing BRICS influence have been contradicted by the rising interest from other nations, reinforcing the organization's potential [18]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected shift in Trump's stance regarding high tariffs on China, acknowledging them as excessive and proposing significant reductions contingent on China's agreement to U.S. conditions, marks a pivotal moment in U.S.-China trade relations [1][5][9]. Economic Context - The U.S. federal debt is projected to exceed $36 trillion by 2025, with public debt accounting for approximately $29 trillion. The government faces an interest repayment of $1 trillion this year against an expected revenue of $5 trillion, leading to a tense fiscal situation [3]. - The U.S. trade deficit is expected to surpass $1.2 trillion by 2024, exacerbated by high tariffs that have increased import costs for consumers and businesses, resulting in a 1.4% reduction in market income [11][18]. Trade Relations and Tariff Adjustments - The tariff conflict escalated from an initial 10% tariff on China to as high as 145%, with retaliatory measures from both sides. A temporary agreement was reached in May, reducing U.S. tariffs to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10% [7][13]. - Despite the agreement, Trump retains a portion of the original high tariffs and emphasizes the need for China to increase purchases of U.S. goods and address trade imbalances [11][18]. International Relations and Strategic Moves - Japan's refusal to halt the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds adds pressure on the U.S. financial situation, prompting Trump to seek a resolution with China [5][12]. - The U.S. military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, involving allies like Japan and Australia, are seen as a strategy to maintain pressure on China while negotiating trade terms [9][14]. Future Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are complicated by the U.S.'s significant debt burden and the need for economic stability. China's economic resilience and commitment to mutual benefit in trade negotiations position it favorably in the ongoing discussions [20].

Core Points - The transatlantic trade agreement is on the verge of collapse due to the U.S. demanding harsher trade terms, including increasing the baseline tariff on most European goods from 10% to 15% or higher [1][2] - The EU is considering activating its "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) as a strong response, which would allow the EU to restrict U.S. access to its service sector, public procurement, and investment [1][4] Group 1: U.S. Demands and EU Response - The U.S. has indicated that the current 25% tariff on automobiles will remain unchanged and may impose a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals [1][2] - The EU had previously been optimistic about reaching an agreement, with plans to lower tariffs and increase purchases of U.S. energy products and advanced semiconductors [2][6] - The U.S. has rejected the EU's proposal for a "standstill" arrangement to prevent new tariffs after an agreement is reached, citing national security concerns [2][6] Group 2: Internal EU Dynamics - Germany's position has shifted towards a more hardline stance, aligning with France and other EU members who advocate for stronger measures against the U.S. [3][5] - The EU is preparing two sets of retaliatory tariff plans, one targeting $24.5 billion worth of U.S. goods and another for $72 billion, covering a wide range of American products [5] Group 3: Potential for Agreement - Despite rising tensions, EU officials still prefer a negotiated solution and do not plan to initiate retaliatory actions before the August 1 deadline [6] - The activation of the ACI reflects the seriousness of the situation, requiring support from 15 member states representing 65% of the EU population to proceed [6]

"十四五"这五年，可以说是极不寻常、极不平凡。对于我国外贸领域来说，面临着不少压力，正如商务 部相关负责人在近日国新办新闻发布会上所言，"至少可以用'风高浪急'来形容"。即便如此，我们的外 贸依然出现逆势增长，如何做到的？ 为期5天的链博会即将闭幕，102家中外企业和机构，与链博会承办单位中国国际展览中心集团有限公司 现场签署了第四届链博会参展意向。签约企业普遍认为，经过三年的精心培育，链博会国际化水平不断 提升、影响力持续增强，已经成为举世瞩目的国际经贸盛会和全球共享的国际公共产品。 第三个关键字是"韧"，外贸韧性和抗冲击能力显著提升。我们常说，朋友多了路好走。商务部相关负责 人称"西方不亮东方亮"，今天，我们的贸易伙伴更加多元。譬如，东盟已经连续5年成为我第一大贸易 伙伴；2024年，我国与共建"一带一路"国家贸易比重超过50%。另外，外贸企业有非常强大的韧性，积 极应变、主动求变。有一个细节值得关注：每天早上八九点钟，在浙江义乌，许多店主来到商城后，第 一件事并非开门迎客，而是投入到外语学习中。这种主动拥抱世界的姿态，恰恰印证了中国市场与全球 经济的深度交融——如今，中国大市场已然成为世界各国共享的大市 ...

美国贸易代表办公室数据显示，2024年美国与欧盟货物贸易总额约9759亿美元，高于与任何其他单 一经济体的货物贸易额。2024年美国对欧盟货物贸易逆差为2356亿美元，较前一年增加12.9%。（记 者：邓仙来） "不，不，那是硬启动日期。也就是说，8月1日新关税措施就将生效。"卢特尼克进一步解释说，美 方关税起征日并非贸易谈判的截止日，"没有什么能阻止其他国家在8月1日后（继续）与我们对话，但 从8月1日起这些关税还是得征"。 近日，美国总统特朗普先后致信多国领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。7月12日， 特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起对欧盟输美商品征收30%的关税，称欧盟的关税和非关税贸易壁垒导致美对 欧出现巨额贸易逆差。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩13日对媒体表示，欧盟决定推迟原定于布鲁塞尔时间14日零时实施的对美 反制措施，以期同美方达成贸易协议，但如果未能达成协议，"我们将继续准备（实施）反制措施，我 们完全做好准备"。 新华社北京7月21日电 美国商务部长卢特尼克当地时间20日说，美方有信心与欧盟达成贸易协议， 但8月1日作为美方拟向欧盟输美产品征收30%关税的起始日期是"硬性"的，此后双方仍可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S.-EU trade negotiations are at a stalemate, with the U.S. imposing a hard deadline of August 1 for new tariffs unless a trade agreement is reached [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Position - U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross emphasized that new tariffs on the EU will begin on August 1, marking a firm deadline for negotiations [1][2]. - The U.S. is pushing for a higher baseline tariff of 15% or more, which exceeds the previously accepted 10% by the EU [3][4]. - The U.S. administration has repeatedly delayed the tariff deadline, but the latest statement indicates no further extensions will be granted [2]. Group 2: EU Response - The EU is preparing for a robust countermeasure, including potential tariffs on over $100 billion worth of U.S. exports and the use of unprecedented "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) to respond to U.S. economic pressure [5]. - Germany, traditionally inclined towards a quick agreement with the U.S., has shifted its stance to support a stronger response alongside France and other member states [4][5]. - The EU had previously been close to an agreement that included a 10% baseline tariff and increased purchases of U.S. energy products and semiconductors, but negotiations have stalled due to U.S. demands for higher tariffs [3][4].

Core Insights - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) concluded successfully, showcasing the latest achievements in global industrial and supply chain cooperation [1] - The event attracted 210,000 online and offline visitors, a 5% increase from the previous year, and over 6,000 cooperation agreements were signed [1] - The expo served as a platform for international and domestic enterprises to interact, share resources, and promote the stability and optimization of global supply chains [1] Group 1: Event Highlights - The Chain Expo featured 152 new products, technologies, and services, marking a 67% increase from the last event [1] - Companies like Jiangsu Hengrui Carbon Fiber Technology Co., Ltd. showcased innovative products aimed at the commercial aircraft and low-altitude flight sectors, emphasizing a green circular composite material ecosystem [2] - Taiyuan Fulairda Logistics Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. presented AI-driven industrial robots and received inquiries from over 20 domestic and international companies on the first day [3] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The expo highlighted the application of AI and embodied intelligence in the industrial chain, with companies like Jiechuang Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. showcasing AI electromagnetic network capture products [3] - The "Beijing Initiative" released at the expo called for the acceleration of digital, intelligent, and visual supply chain development using technologies like AI, IoT, and blockchain [4] - Jiangsu Qingtian Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. introduced an AI big data solution for global supply chain reconstruction, addressing the needs for digitalization and compliance [5] Group 3: Industry Collaboration - Guangdong Zhuozhi Supply Chain Technology Group launched the "Shumaitong" cross-border supply chain management platform, integrating AI technology into international trade processes [6] - The expo emphasized long-term cooperation over immediate transactions, promoting a collaborative environment among exhibitors [6] - The event aimed to enhance connections between businesses, leveraging big data and AI to optimize enterprise interactions and foster a "find friends" model [6]

Core Insights - The trade volume between Shandong and Central Asian countries has shown significant growth, with a 36.4% increase in imports and exports in the first half of the year, reaching 14.19 billion yuan [2][3] - The cooperation between Shandong and Central Asia is expected to expand in various sectors, including modern agriculture, equipment manufacturing, and green minerals, leveraging the complementary strengths of both regions [2][3] - The establishment of the "China-Central Asia Multimodal Transport Corridor" and the exploration of new models such as "train + cross-border e-commerce" are key initiatives to enhance trade and investment [4] Trade and Economic Cooperation - In 2024, the trade volume between Shandong and the five Central Asian countries is projected to reach 21.136 billion yuan, with new contracts for foreign engineering projects amounting to 905 million USD [2] - Over 100 Chinese investment enterprises have been established in Central Asia, with approved investments totaling 736 million USD [2] - The average annual growth rate of trade between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) demonstration zone and Central Asian countries has been 14.6% over the past three years [3] Strategic Initiatives - The SCO demonstration zone aims to enhance economic, cultural, and human exchanges, positioning Shandong as a successful model for regional development [3] - The focus on building international logistics corridors and optimizing port services is intended to lower logistics costs and improve efficiency for Central Asian countries [4] - The upcoming "China Year" for the SCO is expected to bring new opportunities for cooperation among member states [4]

来源：参考消息 此前受新冠疫情影响，两地之间的客运列车服务已长期停滞。 最新央企名单来了！刚刚，国务院国资委发布今年1号公告！ 中国海关总署18日公布的数据显示，今年上半年中国对朝出口额同比增长逾30%至 10.50亿美元，自朝鲜进口额增长逾20%至2.10亿美元。 有中方贸易人士表示，室内建材出口强劲。 除了贸易，韩联社16日报道称，朝鲜国家观光总局运营的网站上公布的"国际列车时刻 表"中，新增了连接朝鲜首都平壤和中国首都北京的国际列车信息。 据《日本经济新闻》7月19日报道，中国与朝鲜之间的经济交流日趋活跃。今年1月至 6月中朝贸易额同比增长逾30%。为鼓励观光和商务出行，连接两国的国际旅客列车也 有望恢复运营。 ...