英国一位内阁大臣拒绝排除对美国实施报复性关税的可能性，但坚称最好与唐纳德·特朗普政府进行"幕 后"谈判。 布里奇特·菲利普森还表示，在总统宣布征收15%的全球关税后，政府将"希望并期待"与美国达成的优惠 关税协议能够继续维持。此前，美国最高法院的一项裁决推翻了特朗普先前实施的进口征税。 美国总统的最新声明使英国的贸易战略陷入混乱，人们质疑此前与美国达成的协议是否仍然有效。 当被问及英国是否计划对特朗普最新的关税威胁进行报复时，菲利普森告诉媒体："我们始终会捍卫对 英国有利的立场。我认为首相在格陵兰问题上的处理方式已经证明了这一点。 "但现实是，如果你想做成事情，最好在幕后进行。" 当被追问英国是否可能以自身征税作为回应时，这位教育大臣表示："实际上，当你进行严肃对话时， 往往不是在镜头前或公开场合，而是在幕后、政府间紧密合作时，才能取得更多成果。" "我们与美国确实拥有非常牢固的关系，这种关系不取决于某一位总统或某一位首相。" "这是一种长期而持久的关系，这对我们国家有利，对国家安全有利，在当前全球局势显著动荡之际， 我们在国防等关键问题上合作也至关重要。" 她坚称与美国的讨论正在进行中，并表示部长们希望"为 ...

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Core Viewpoint - The EU leaders convened to address the urgent need to enhance competitiveness amid economic downturns and geopolitical risks, focusing on energy costs and internal market operations [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Competitiveness - The meeting's primary agenda was to find ways to lower energy costs and improve the functioning of the EU's internal market to help European businesses remain competitive against the US and China [1][3]. - European industrial electricity prices are reported to be more than double those in the US and China, highlighting the urgent need for a unified energy market [3][4]. - The EU is considering the "European priority" policy to support local industries in strategic sectors like clean technology, chemicals, steel, automotive, and defense [4][5]. Group 2: Divergence Among Member States - There are significant disagreements among EU member states regarding the implementation of the "European priority" policy, with countries like France advocating for it while others, including Germany and Ireland, express concerns about maintaining free trade principles [5][6]. - The meeting is expected to reveal whether member states can overcome their individual interests to reach a collective action plan [8][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges - EU leaders discussed the need to reduce excessive regulations that complicate business operations, such as differing weight limits for trucks across borders [8][9]. - The current global economic order is perceived as fragile, with calls for a shift from a confederation to a federation to enhance decision-making and unity among member states [8][9]. Group 4: Historical Context and Meeting Significance - The choice of a castle for the meeting symbolizes a retreat from public scrutiny, allowing leaders to engage in serious discussions about Europe's future [10][12]. - Historical precedents show that such secluded meetings have been used to address critical issues, indicating the importance of the current discussions for the EU's stability and competitiveness [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The "Smart Reignition" commemorative event for the Shougang Group's No. 3 blast furnace marks a significant transformation from an industrial relic to a digital cultural experience hub, showcasing the integration of technology and heritage [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event took place on December 18, 2023, exactly 15 years after the No. 3 blast furnace ceased operations, symbolizing its rebirth as a digital cultural complex [1]. - The venue spans nearly 2,000 square meters and features an immersive exhibition titled "The Age of Steel," along with various modules such as an XR theater, a coffee shop, and a cultural market [1]. - The event included performances by the Shougang "Iron Brothers Choir" and stories shared by representatives of Shougang's transformation, highlighting the connection between past and present [1]. Group 2: Technological Integration - The "Smart Reignition" ceremony involved the use of digital steel fibers to ignite the furnace core, symbolizing the revival of industrial glory through modern technology [2]. - A humanoid robot performed a Tai Chi demonstration, showcasing the successful integration of industrial heritage with technological innovation [4]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The head of Beijing Qingcheng Ruixian Digital Technology Research Institute emphasized that "Smart Reignition" represents a new starting point for the activation of industrial heritage [7]. - The future development of the RE Ruixian No. 3 Blast Furnace Digital Museum aims to deepen the application of digital technology and enhance immersive cultural experiences, serving as a model for the revitalization of global industrial heritage [7].

Core Insights - The forum discussed the role of the futures market in supporting the real economy of the non-ferrous metals industry, emphasizing its importance in ensuring supply chain security and promoting high-quality industry development [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown stable performance in 2023, with an industrial added value growth of 7.8% year-on-year and a production of 61.25 million tons, reflecting a 3.0% increase [2] - The futures market has become a crucial part of the financial system, aiding in price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation, which stabilizes production and enhances the industry's resilience [2] - The futures product system is continuously improving, with 13 non-ferrous metal futures and corresponding options available, leading to deeper integration into business operations [2] - The industry faces new challenges such as resource security and green transformation, necessitating further development of the futures market [3] Steel Industry - The steel industry has seen a significant increase in futures market participation, with nine steel-related futures and four options currently available, maintaining the largest trading scale globally [4] - There has been a notable shift in participation, with large steel enterprises that previously avoided the futures market now engaging more deeply [4] - The steel sector is currently under pressure from weak demand and a complex external environment, prompting calls for measures to reduce participation costs and enhance market regulation [4] Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical sector has advanced from initial exploration to deep collaboration in integrating production and finance, with significant progress in risk management and financing innovation [5] - In 2024, the petrochemical industry's revenue is projected to reach 16.28 trillion yuan, with a profit of 789.71 billion yuan, marking increases of 46.9% and 53.2% respectively since 2020 [5] - Despite progress, challenges remain in the petrochemical industry regarding balanced participation, risk management tools, and the need for further development of futures market functionalities [6] - Recommendations for the petrochemical industry include enhancing market supply, deepening integration, and improving risk management capabilities [6]

Group 1 - The 2025 Saudi-China Industrial and Building Materials Exhibition was successfully held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from October 12 to 15, organized by the Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce and the Shandong Provincial Council for the Promotion of International Trade [1] - The exhibition focused on the steel industry, metal processing, casting, die-casting, and non-ferrous metal industries, featuring nearly 50 enterprises from Shandong Province and covering an exhibition area of approximately 560 square meters [1] - During the four-day event, Shandong exhibitors received an average of 50-60 buyers daily, with popular products including CNC equipment, laser machines, steel coils, stainless steel plates, pipe fittings, and new materials [4] Group 2 - The total transaction amount at the exhibition reached over 6.3 million USD, with more than 800 preliminary procurement intentions valued at over 45 million USD [4] - Shandong Xinlant Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. signed contracts with four high-quality clients and connected with over 80 potential clients, establishing a solid foundation for future business expansion [4] - Shandong Yigao Building Decoration Materials Co., Ltd. gained deep insights into the Saudi market and improved brand awareness and influence through the exhibition [4] Group 3 - The exhibition also included contractor matchmaking meetings and market research activities, helping enterprises understand the local business environment and market trends [5] - The successful hosting of the exhibition provided an efficient platform for Shandong enterprises to explore the Middle East market and injected strong momentum into the internationalization of Shandong's industrial capacity [5] - Participating companies expressed intentions to deepen international cooperation and promote Shandong manufacturing's greater leap in the global value chain [5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Saudi-China Industrial and Building Materials Exhibition was successfully held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from October 12 to 15, organized by the Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce and the Shandong Provincial Council for the Promotion of International Trade [2] - The exhibition focused on the steel industry, metal processing, casting, die-casting, and non-ferrous metal industries, featuring nearly 50 enterprises from Shandong Province with an exhibition area of approximately 560 square meters [2] - During the four-day event, participating enterprises received an average of 50 to 60 buyers daily, with total on-site transactions exceeding 6.3 million USD and over 800 preliminary procurement intentions valued at more than 45 million USD [2] Group 2 - The exhibition provided a professional platform for Shandong enterprises to expand into the Middle East market, injecting new vitality into the "going out" of high-quality industrial capacity [3] - Companies participated in contractor matchmaking meetings and market research activities, gaining insights into the local business environment and market trends [3] - The event facilitated dual benefits of technological innovation and commercial cooperation through high-quality industry exchanges, with participants expressing expectations for greater commercial breakthroughs in the future [3] Group 3 - Participating companies reported that the exhibition offered an efficient platform for deep communication and connection [4] - Shandong Xilan Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. successfully connected with over 80 potential clients and signed contracts with 4 high-quality customers, laying a solid foundation for future business expansion [4] - Shandong New Zheng New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. noted that the exhibition broadened their perspective and helped them understand the sales environment and industry connections [4] - Shandong Yigao Building Decoration Materials Co., Ltd. indicated that participation enhanced their understanding of the Saudi market and customer needs, significantly increasing brand awareness and influence [4] - Jinan Guangxian CNC Technology Co., Ltd. evaluated the exhibition as an efficient means to acquire potential customers and quickly understand local supply and demand, further clarifying their future development direction [4]

Group 1: Historical Context and Significance - The speech by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes the resilience and self-reliance of the Chinese nation, highlighting the importance of industrial development for national revival [1] - The article reflects on the contributions of industrialists during the Anti-Japanese War, showcasing their efforts to save the nation through industrialization [1][19] Group 2: Company Case Study - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation's Nanjing Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (Nanjing Chemical) has a 90-year history, originally founded as Yung Lee Chemical Factory in 1934 by patriot industrialist Fan Xudong [3][4] - During the war, the company faced significant challenges, including air raids, but managed to relocate critical equipment to continue production, demonstrating resilience [4] - The company has since evolved, focusing on innovation, such as the development of electronic-grade sulfuric acid, which is crucial for chip production [5][6] Group 3: Company Case Study - WISCO Kunming Steel Co., Ltd. - WISCO Kunming Steel Co., Ltd. was established in 1939, emerging from the need for steel production during wartime, with significant contributions to the war effort [8][10] - The company faced numerous challenges, including air raids, but successfully produced over 10,000 tons of iron and 4,000 tons of steel by 1945 [11] - Today, the company has modernized its operations, focusing on green and intelligent manufacturing, and has become a leader in high-strength seismic steel production [12][12] Group 4: Company Case Study - Nanjiao Hydropower Plant - The Nanjiao Hydropower Plant, built during the war, was crucial for powering the strategic Yunnan Gejiu tin mine, showcasing the importance of energy infrastructure [13][16] - Despite facing significant challenges, including air raids, the plant was completed and significantly increased tin production, supporting the war effort [16][17] - The plant has undergone modernization, achieving a significant increase in efficiency and contributing to the local power grid [17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that six localization projects will be launched in the Sohar Industrial Area in the second half of 2025, with a total investment exceeding 27 million Omani Rials [1] - The total area of these projects will exceed 162,000 square meters, covering various sectors including oil, steel, food, marble, tiles, and wood [1] - The projects include a 25 million Omani Rials investment by the National Petrochemical Investment Company for an oil industry project [1] Group 2 - Sultan Al-Shidi Engineering is investing 1 million Omani Rials in a steel industry project [1] - Al-Soulb Trading Investment Company is investing 600,000 Omani Rials in another steel industry project [1] - ASAAS International Company is investing 400,000 Omani Rials in a marble and tile manufacturing project [1] Group 3 - Al Rawda International Trading Company is investing 150,000 Omani Rials in a food industry project [1] - United Wooden Platform is investing 150,000 Omani Rials in a wood processing project [1]

Core Insights - The integration of AI in the steel industry is seen as a crucial step towards achieving high-end, intelligent, and green development, as emphasized by industry leaders [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Transformation Initiatives - The China Iron and Steel Association has prioritized digital transformation as one of the three major projects in the industry, launching a three-year action plan for digital transformation [1]. - The association has released guidelines for the construction of intelligent manufacturing standards and digital transformation projects in the steel industry [1]. Group 2: AI Applications and Innovations - AI applications in the steel industry have shown promising results in optimizing production processes, quality control, and supply chain management [1]. - The "human-machine hybrid intelligence" model proposed by Northeast University aims to address the "black box" nature of steel production, enabling high-fidelity online predictions throughout the entire process [2]. Group 3: Environmental Sustainability - The development of AI in the steel sector is expected to promote green and sustainable practices, contributing to energy conservation and environmental protection [1]. - The establishment of a cross-enterprise and cross-industry AI ecosystem is anticipated to enhance collaboration among steel companies, upstream and downstream enterprises, research institutions, and technology service providers [1]. Group 4: Technical Advancements - The shift from experience-driven to intelligent decision-making in ironmaking is highlighted as a key trend, with mixed intelligence empowering the process [3]. - A new intelligent steelmaking system has been developed that combines knowledge-driven and data-driven approaches to address traditional challenges in steel production [3].