赵超 长江证券煤炭分析师: 各位领导下午好。今天是复工第一天，然后恭祝大家马年大吉，马上来财。然后本场是长 江金属和煤炭共同举办的马年开门红会议，煤炭上市公司第二场。华阳股份的专场交流， 然后我们也是非常荣幸的应邀请到了公司董秘路总，然后以及正在兼证券部部长的赵志新 赵总来跟大家一起交流公司的一个近况。然后也请大家，也请赵总跟大家打个招呼。 华阳股份董秘赵志新: 尊敬的各位投资者，大家新年第一天上班。也是在这里给大家拜一个晚年，祝大家就是马 年大吉。就是借用宋总的马年大吉，新年事业事业有成吧。 赵超 长江证券煤炭分析师: 感谢赵总，然后因为现在时间比较特殊，然后我想就是简单这样开完场之后，大家可以直 接进入到一个互动问答的环节。然后有请小助理帮我们开启一下这样一个互动，的一个提 问，看线上投资者有没有什么样的一个问题。 华阳股份董秘赵志新: 欢迎各位投资者，有什么问题可以尽管的问。 赵超 长江证券煤炭分析师: 赵总，就是因为刚开始，然后我想先抛砖引玉，提几个问题。对，然后因为公司最近的整 体的关注度也比较高，然后我想就也是提前收集了一些读者的消息，然后以及一些问题， 然后第一个就是关于因为现在 25 年也过完 ...

Group 1: Transportation Industry Insights - The Spring Festival travel peak has shown a significant increase in passenger volume and ticket prices, indicating an industry turning point. The total inter-regional passenger flow reached 5.08 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [3][4] - During the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the civil aviation passenger volume increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with an average ticket price of 943 yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [3][4] - The civil aviation industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in passenger volume for 2026, supported by a recovery in business travel and a high seat occupancy rate [5] Group 2: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is entering a favorable cycle with rising prices due to the upcoming peak season and a global trend of reducing overcapacity. The focus is on the recovery of demand and the potential for increased dividend yields from leading companies [6][8] - Key sectors to watch include coal chemical, oil refining, and agricultural chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for their strong performance potential [8][9] - The industry is expected to benefit from a reduction in supply and increased demand, particularly in sectors like PTA and tire manufacturing, as well as in the context of AI-driven demand [8][9] Group 3: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has risen to 718 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 23 yuan, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from power plants [45][46] - The competitiveness of imported coal has diminished, leading to a favorable outlook for domestic coal prices as supply tightens and demand remains stable [45][46] - The overall coal mining industry is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to rising operational costs and regulatory pressures, with a focus on maintaining high-quality assets and cash flow [47]

摘要 建筑业新签合同总额去年同比下降 6.6%至 31.5 万亿元，但八大央企市 占率逆势提升约 10 个百分点，达到 51%，上游材料商市占率提升可能 更为显著，行业正经历供给出清和业务重组。 尽管建筑总需求大幅增加难度大，但结构上"两栋"项目比例上升，利 好头部央国企及其合作的头部材料商。今年作为"十五"开局之年，重 大项目资金倾斜，专项债提前下达，施工工作量有望由负转正。 有色金属方面，春节期间海外金属价格普遍上涨，带动国内有色金属股 票走强。尽管美联储鹰派会议纪要压制贵金属价格，但伊朗局势紧张提 供上涨催化，有色板块短期调整后具备基本面支撑，能源金属标的值得 关注。 煤炭行业，印尼减产计划仍在落实，国内春节后淡季可能继续推进减产。 春节前价格倒挂导致海外进口煤减少，国内供应量下降。港口库存低于 去年同期，电厂、钢厂、焦化厂或面临补库行情，看好节后国内煤炭价 格上涨。 春节期间，多地试点国企收购存量商品房用于保障性租赁住房，新房市 场开发商推出优惠活动。重点城市二手房成交稳中有升，但需观察元宵 周期板块节后开工及行情展望 20260223 节后数据。地产板块总体仍需摸底，看好现金流稳健的商管类公司及基 ...

叶如祯 长江证券分析师: 尊敬的各位投资人，欢迎大家下午收听由这个长安金属煤炭举办的如何展望节后金属煤炭 行情的这个专题会议。那么核心还是节中的话，整体的这个，包括海外资产，包括其实商 品资产，也都出现了比较积极的这个大幅的这个波动。所以，这个长安金属煤炭联合还是 希望在节前去做一个这个观点的展望，以及整个 2~3 月份的这个配置的这样的一个策略。 我这边是这个贵金属叶如珍，然后主要是先更新一下这个黄金和白银的这个假期内的这个 情境。那么假期中，其实核心的线索主要还是这个特朗普和最高法院的这个司法战，触发 的这个避险情绪。 那么带动的贵金属的行情进一步的这个上行，那么触发的这个时点，其实主要是源于 2 月 20 日，这个美国最高法院对这个特朗普裁定这个从动无无权限。在非紧急特殊状态下实施 全面广泛这个性关税。那么在这个裁决之后，特朗普又基于这个 1974 年的这个贸易法案 的第 122 条。立即这个征收了这个 10%的这个全球的关税，那么有效期为 150 天。这一 来一回，直接我们讲导致了这个美元和美债利率的走弱，那么从而，一一方面催生了这个 整体这个美国经济预期的扰动。 另外一方面，还是主要是这个贸易情绪的 ...

Group 1: AI Chip Market and Diamond Heat Sinks - The potential market space for diamond heat sinks in the AI chip sector is vast, with estimates suggesting a market range of 7.5 billion to 150 billion RMB by 2030, depending on penetration rates and value share [1][2] - Huanghe Xuanfeng has successfully developed an 8-inch diamond heat sink, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of functional diamonds for high-end chip cooling applications [1] - The production workshop for diamond heat sinks is set to commence mass production in February 2023, indicating a shift from laboratory development to large-scale commercial application [1] Group 2: Related Companies in Diamond Technology - Guoji Jinggong has been focusing on diamond functional applications since 2015, with expected revenue from heat sinks and optical windows projected to exceed 10 million RMB by 2025 [3] - World has extensive R&D in CVD diamond preparation and is one of the few companies mastering the entire CVD diamond growth technology [3] - Sifangda is a leading CVD diamond manufacturer in China, capable of mass-producing large-sized diamond substrates and films [3] - Power Diamond has launched semiconductor heat sink materials with applications in AI chips and new energy sectors [3] - Huifeng Diamond's products are still in the research phase and have not yet generated revenue [3] Group 3: Transformer Market Dynamics - The transformer sector is experiencing a surge in demand due to the rapid growth of AI and data centers, with many factories operating at full capacity and orders extending to 2027 [5] - China has become the world's largest transformer producer, accounting for approximately 60% of global production capacity [5] - The U.S. market is facing a projected 30% supply gap for power transformers by 2025, indicating a significant opportunity for companies with strong distribution channels and quick delivery capabilities [5] Group 4: Glass Fiber Price Increases - Glass fiber manufacturers are expected to initiate a second round of price increases of 10% to 15% due to rising costs and supply constraints, potentially doubling prices by the end of the year [6][7] - The shift in production focus from traditional electronic cloth to specialty glass fiber cloth is causing a supply shortage in the traditional electronic cloth market [6] Group 5: Optical Fiber Market Growth - The demand for high-performance optical fibers is increasing significantly due to the AI wave, with G.652.D single-mode optical fiber prices reaching a near seven-year high of 35 RMB per core kilometer [9] - The industry is experiencing a confirmed upward price trend, with expectations for continued price increases as demand from telecom operators rises [9] Group 6: Coal Market Trends - The coal sector is seeing positive trends with a significant reduction in inventory and a favorable supply outlook, leading to optimistic coal price forecasts post-holiday [10] - The domestic coal supply has been at a low operational rate, while import volumes remain low, contributing to a favorable market environment [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and a reduction in imports, which is expected to support coal prices in the near future [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42%, indicating strong demand [1]. - The report suggests that the current coal prices are under less pressure for significant declines due to lower port inventories compared to the previous year [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines to improve the national unified electricity market system, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based by 2030 [5]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, particularly in Henan province, focusing on intelligent mining and accident prevention [5]. 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with various grades reporting no significant changes [6][8]. - The report indicates that international thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [7]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 5.92% to $71.76 per barrel as of February 20, 2026, which may influence coal pricing dynamics [12]. 4. Bohai Rim Port Inventory - Coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports decreased by 1.96% week-on-week, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026 [17]. - The report notes a significant increase in both coal inflow and outflow at these ports, indicating a robust market activity [17]. 5. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, averaging 26.78 RMB/ton as of February 13, 2026 [24]. - International freight rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing slight increases while others decreased [24]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and expected earnings per share (EPS) [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and an expected reduction in imports, which is anticipated to support continued increases in coal prices [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42% [1]. - The report suggests that the current tight supply conditions, coupled with increased demand from downstream sectors, will likely sustain coal prices in the near term [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for significant market participation by 2030 and full establishment by 2035 [8]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, with a focus on intelligent operations and strict enforcement of safety regulations [8]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with specific grades reporting no change in price [9][11]. - International thermal coal prices showed slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [10]. Inventory and Supply - The Bohai Rim ports reported a decrease in coal inventory, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026, down 1.96% from the previous week [21]. - The report indicates that the number of vessels anchored at the Bohai Rim ports decreased, reflecting tighter supply conditions [21]. Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, while international freight rates showed mixed trends [28]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal market is expected to perform well post-holiday, driven by domestic price increases as demand shifts towards domestic coal procurement due to rising overseas prices [1][7] - The focus for the coal market this year is on overseas developments rather than domestic factors, with potential "black swan" events in the overseas market, particularly related to U.S. demand and Indonesian production cuts, being crucial for price movements [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of Indonesian coal supply and its impact on global coal prices, suggesting that significant production cuts could lead to a tight global coal market and higher prices [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3940.86 points, up 1.86%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points during the week of February 9 to February 13, 2026 [77] - Domestic coal production was largely halted during the holiday, but overseas coal prices continued to rise, leading to an expectation of increased domestic prices as demand shifts [1][7] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Supply constraints have led to stable price increases before the holiday, with port inventories declining and daily consumption at power plants decreasing [11][27][30] - **Coking Coal**: Prices remained stable as downstream inventory replenishment ended, with a focus on the impact of Mongolian coal imports [35][42] - **Coke**: The market is expected to remain stable post-holiday, with attention on downstream demand recovery [53][75] Key Companies - The report highlights several companies as key investment targets, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a "Buy" rating and projected EPS growth [9] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) also rated "Buy" [9] - New Energy (601918.SH) and Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with "Buy" ratings [9] - Companies with overseas operations such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia are noted for their potential benefits from overseas market dynamics [10]

%% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 电裕求新变，煤紧风正帆 %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 肖勇 赵超 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SFC：BQT627 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 叶如祯 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 庄越 刘亚辉 韦思宇 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490523080003 SAC：S0490524120007 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 25 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年用电需求增速放缓，火电电量近 10 年首次负增长，风电、光伏、火电新增装机创新高 的同时利用小时加速恶化。展望 2026 年，虽然绿电建设降速，但电量过剩问题依然较为严峻， 火电利用小时压力较大，看好价格机制改革的推进落实。结合电力供需平衡表对煤电的预 ...

Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index shows a significant "spring market" trend with a 75% probability of rising in the first five days after the Spring Festival, and a median increase of 1.64% [1] - Over the past decade, the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and military industries have performed well in the month following the Spring Festival, with the computer industry leading in the last two years [1] Industry Performance - In the past ten years, various industries have shown different performances post-Spring Festival, with coal, environmental protection, national defense, agriculture, and steel industries having notable fluctuations in their weekly and monthly gains [2] - The coal industry is expected to see a significant increase in production capacity in 2026, with an anticipated rise of 70 million tons in raw coal output, while policies may lead to a reduction of 150 million tons in capacity [2] Agricultural Sector Insights - The pig breeding sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices and profitability by 2026 due to ongoing capacity reduction in breeding sows [3] - The poultry farming sector is also expected to improve, with opportunities for leading companies in the meat chicken breeding market [3] Defense and Aerospace Industry - The defense industry is poised for growth in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions and advancements in military technology, with a focus on precision-guided munitions and unmanned systems [4] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to experience a boom, with several new rocket launches planned and advancements in reusable technology [4] Recommended Companies - In the defense sector, companies such as North Navigation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group are highlighted for their strategic positions in precision-guided munitions, new aircraft development, and unmanned systems [5] - In the commercial aerospace sector, Aerospace Electric and Guobo Electronics are recommended for their roles in providing critical components for satellite and rocket technologies [5]