反内卷大势所趋，锂电材料近年来业绩疲软资产负债率高企，相较于持续增长的需 求材料行业的供给相对刚性，看好锂电材料头部公司盈利非线性增长的可能性。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.25 告别过剩思想，拥抱锂电材料大周期 [Table_Industry] 动力锂电 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | | 牟俊宇(分析师) | 0755-23976610 | moujunyu@gtht.com | S0880521080003 | 本报告导读： [Table_Report] 相关报告 动力锂电《钠电团体标准正式发布，产业化加速 推进》2026.01.11 动力锂电《11 月新能源汽车表现强劲，动力电池 产销同环比保持增长》2025.12.14 动力锂电《碳酸锂迎来上涨，钠电产业加速落 地》2025.11.20 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - The US unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, down from a revised 4.5% in November, indicating a temporary halt in concerns over job market deterioration[11] - The US manufacturing PMI declined while the services PMI increased, reflecting mixed economic signals[7] - Consumer confidence in the US continued to recover in January, with inflation expectations slightly rising[7] Market Trends - Risk assets generally rose in the week of January 2-9, 2026, with major economies' stock markets and commodity prices increasing[7] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 5.7%, while domestic 10Y government bond futures prices fell by 0.1%[7] - The dollar index increased by 0.7%, with the USD/CNY exchange rate at 6.98, indicating a slight appreciation of the yuan[7] Sector Performance - The AI application sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 35% for the AI industry and over 63% for the large model market[23] - The consumer electronics sector, particularly smart glasses, is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected 110% year-on-year increase in global shipments in the first half of 2025[38] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to overweight A/H shares due to multiple factors supporting Chinese equity performance, including an expected expansion of the fiscal deficit and a more aggressive economic policy[18] - Gold is recommended for overweight allocation due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes amid rising geopolitical uncertainties[20] - The report suggests a cautious approach to oil investments, recommending a lower allocation due to expected price pressures from geopolitical events and US policy directions[20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the electric heavy truck market [4]. Core Insights - The electric heavy truck market in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by the vehicle replacement policy, with a significant increase in penetration rates. The market is expected to continue expanding due to economic and environmental advantages [7][14]. - In Europe, stricter carbon emission regulations and supportive policies are accelerating the electrification of heavy trucks, with notable growth in sales and penetration rates [16][19]. - The U.S. market currently has a low level of electrification for heavy trucks, but growth is beginning to emerge due to government incentives [35]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the electric heavy truck market in China is set for explosive growth, benefiting the lithium battery industry and key material companies. Recommended stocks include CATL, BYD, Guoxuan High-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [7][8]. Electric Heavy Trucks: Policy Support and Economic Viability - Electric heavy trucks are gaining traction due to their zero emissions, low noise, and efficiency, making them increasingly popular among logistics and transportation companies. The comprehensive cost of electric trucks is becoming competitive compared to traditional fuel trucks, especially with government subsidies [9][13]. China: Growth Driven by Replacement Policies - In 2024, China's electric heavy truck sales reached 82,100 units, a 140% year-on-year increase, with penetration rates doubling to 13.61%. By 2025, sales continued to rise, with a total of 137,800 units sold in the first three quarters, marking a 184% increase [14]. Europe: Accelerated Electrification Due to Emission Regulations - The European market saw electric heavy truck sales exceed 3,000 units in 2023, a threefold increase from the previous year, with penetration rates surpassing 1%. The growth is supported by stringent emission regulations and the introduction of new models [19][27]. United States: Low Current Electrification Level - The U.S. electric heavy truck market remains at a low penetration rate of less than 1%. However, sales are projected to reach 1,103 units in 2024, a 34% increase from the previous year, driven by clean vehicle subsidy programs [35].

Fixed Income Research - The bond market may have completed a "five-wave" cycle and is now entering an adjustment phase, with historical data suggesting that the decline from the peak could be around 30%-35% of the previous gains [1][3][30] Coal Mining Research - The fundamental reason for the frequent global electricity shortages is the rapid growth in electricity demand, while structural bottlenecks on the supply side remain unresolved. Traditional energy sources, particularly coal-fired power, will continue to be the ballast of the global electricity system in the medium to long term [5][7][8] - Global electricity demand is expected to grow at a rate of 4.4% in 2024, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth of 2.9%. This growth is driven by deep electrification in the industrial sector, rapid expansion of data centers driven by artificial intelligence, and increased extreme weather events due to global climate change [6][7] Power Equipment and New Energy Research - Solid-state batteries are identified as the next generation of high-performance batteries, with increasing demand for oxide semi-solid batteries and the potential for sulfide all-solid-state batteries to demonstrate their capabilities. Continuous advancements in the industry are expected to enhance the trend of solid-state battery markets [9][10][11] - The solid-state battery market has transitioned from being demand-driven to being driven by new technologies, with significant developments expected in various fields, including consumer batteries and electric vehicles [12][13]

Group 1 - The establishment of a joint venture between WoFei ChangKong and WoLong Electric Drive focuses on the development of electric propulsion power systems, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of the low-altitude economy [2][3][21] - The joint venture, Zhejiang Longfei Electric Drive Technology Co., Ltd., will develop high-performance motors and electric drive systems for tilt-rotor eVTOL aircraft, addressing high thrust demands during vertical takeoff and efficient energy conversion during cruise [3][21] - The collaboration is anticipated to integrate both parties' technologies and market resources, creating a "power solution" that can be reused in the low-altitude economy sector [3][21] Group 2 - The cooperation between power system companies and eVTOL manufacturers is expected to accelerate core technology research and development, enhancing the synergy within the low-altitude economy industry chain [4][21] - The low-altitude economy encompasses various sectors, including low-altitude infrastructure, aircraft manufacturing, and operational support, with the aircraft manufacturing segment facing significant technical barriers and receiving strong policy support for eVTOL technology development [4][21] - The value proportion of the power system and avionics control system in eVTOL aircraft is relatively high, indicating that these segments are likely to benefit significantly from the ongoing developments [4][21] Group 3 - The solid-state battery industrialization process is accelerating, with several automotive companies, including BMW and Mercedes-Benz, beginning road tests of vehicles equipped with solid-state batteries [7][8][9] - The energy density of the new solid-state batteries is reported to be as high as 450Wh/kg, with some manufacturers planning to achieve mass production by 2027 [8][9] - Companies like Ningde Times and Guoxuan High-Tech are leading the development of solid-state batteries, with plans for small-scale production and delivery of high-energy-density batteries in the coming years [9][10] Group 4 - The solid-state battery supply chain is progressing well, with companies like BETTERRY and Xiamen Tungsten New Energy making advancements in key materials for solid-state batteries [10] - The market for solid-state batteries is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for high-performance energy storage solutions in electric vehicles [9][10] - The competitive landscape in the lithium battery sector is intensifying as companies race to secure their positions in the solid-state battery market [9][10]