Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is currently experiencing a concentrated period of mid-term earnings forecasts, with a notable number of companies expecting significant earnings growth [1]. Group 1: Positive Earnings Forecasts - Nearly 120 Hong Kong-listed companies have released earnings forecasts, with 37 companies expecting earnings growth, 14 companies turning losses into profits, and 9 companies anticipating slight increases. The overall positive earnings forecast rate stands at 50.85% [1]. - Pop Mart expects its revenue to grow by no less than 200% and profits to increase by no less than 350% compared to the same period last year, driven by enhanced brand recognition and diversified product offerings [3]. - Huabao International anticipates a pre-tax profit of between 151.2 million to 177.2 million yuan, representing a growth of approximately 91.3% to 124.3% year-on-year, primarily due to the absence of significant impairment losses this period [3]. - Guoquan expects a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan, reflecting a growth of about 111% to 146% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [4]. - Zhou Hei Ya forecasts total revenue between 1.2 billion to 1.24 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.5% to 4.7% year-on-year, but expects profit growth of 55.2% to 94.8% due to optimized store structure and improved sales efficiency [4]. - October Rice Field anticipates adjusted net profit of no less than 283 million yuan, a growth of at least 90% year-on-year, driven by continuous innovation in home food categories and enhanced cooperation with quality sales channels [5]. - Andeli Juice expects a net profit of approximately 187 million to 214 million yuan, an increase of 40% to 60% year-on-year, mainly due to increased customer orders and significant growth in concentrated juice sales [5]. Group 2: Negative Earnings Forecasts - Some companies, such as Conning Hospital, expect a decline in mid-term earnings, with a projected drop in net profit of about 25% to 35% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced operating income from decreased average daily expenses per bed [7]. - Conning Hospital's previous report indicated a total revenue of 1.654 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year growth of 3.63%, but a net profit decline of 23.7% [8]. - Xinyi Solar anticipates a net profit decrease of 56% to 66% for the first half of 2025, attributed to a significant drop in average selling prices of solar glass products amid oversupply [8]. - Xinyi Glass expects a net profit decline of 55% to 65% for the same period, due to continuous revenue and gross profit declines in the float glass business, influenced by reduced demand and market price pressures [8].

新华财经上海7月21日电近期，韩国证券存托结算院（KSD）发布的最新数据显示，截至7月15日，韩国 投资者2025年年内对中国内地及香港股市的累计交易额超54亿美元，中国市场成为其第二大海外投资目 的地，仅次于美国市场。 数据显示，相较于偏好核心资产的欧美机构资金，韩国投资者紧跟市场热点，对港股热情高涨。截至7 月15日，韩国股民最为青睐小米集团，今年以来累计净买入金额约为1.7亿美元；比亚迪和宁德时代也 受到韩国股民青睐，分别吸引9310万美元和6089万美元的资金流入。泡泡玛特和老铺黄金等新消费概念 也获得追捧元。A股市场中，华夏中证机器人ETF成为韩国投资者配置中国机器人产业的重要通道。 韩国投资者短线大举扫货中国资产，是全球资本配置转变的一个缩影。随着中国经济基本面韧性凸显， 科技企业在人工智能等领域取得一系列重大突破，多家外资机构用"真金白银"加码中国市场。 此外，随着政策持续发力，"反内卷"风潮席卷各行各业，朱良认为，此次涉及的领域不仅包括钢铁、水 泥等传统产业，还涉及民企占比较高的光伏、新能源汽车、锂电池等新兴产业。 2025年初以来，得益于DeepSeek、新消费和创新药等新叙事的不断涌现，港 ...

Group 1 - Dongguan's import and export value reached 749.28 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, ranking first among major foreign trade cities in Guangdong province [1][3] - The import and export scale in the second quarter grew by 10.3% compared to the first quarter, maintaining a year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, demonstrating strong development resilience [1][3] Group 2 - Dongguan's foreign trade strategy focuses on "stabilizing old markets and expanding new ones," with imports and exports to traditional markets like the EU increasing by 10.9% year-on-year [3] - Emerging markets such as ASEAN, India, the Middle East, Latin America, and Central Asia saw significant year-on-year growth in imports and exports, with increases of 43.5%, 21.5%, 31.5%, 13.1%, and 63.6% respectively, effectively diversifying trade patterns [3] Group 3 - The export structure is continuously optimizing, with high-tech product exports increasing by 23.4%, including a 25% growth in high-end equipment and a 23.4% growth in electronic information products [3] - The toy industry performed notably, with exports reaching 9.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, covering 115 countries and regions, and the number of toy enterprises with import and export achievements increasing by 43 [3] Group 4 - Private enterprises are the main force behind foreign trade growth, with imports and exports totaling 469.54 billion yuan, a historical high, and a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, accounting for 62.7% of the city's total import and export value [3][4] - The export of high-tech products by private enterprises increased by 25.5%, reflecting a shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement [3] Group 5 - Dongguan's foreign trade growth is attributed to enhanced resilience in the industrial chain and the release of policy dividends, supporting the development of a high-quality foreign trade environment [4] - The city is leveraging technological innovation, market diversification, and enterprise cultivation to promote higher quality development in foreign trade, contributing to the construction of an international economic and trade center in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [4]

周周芝道 - 模型跟踪：关税对美国通胀影响 20250720 摘要 2025 年上半年美国实际有效关税税率显著上升，从年初的 2.5%增至 8.8%，其中对中国的实际有效关税税率增幅尤为明显，从 10%升至近 40%，对不同行业产生差异化影响，如金属行业关税增加 50%，小家 电、家具、玩具等行业增加 20%。 模型分析显示，关税成本主要由出口商、美国企业和消费者分担，历史 数据显示大部分最终由消费者承担。截至 2025 年 6 月，约 40%的关税 成本已传导至消费者价格指数（CPI），剩余 60%可能由企业承担，部 分行业如汽车和金属制品出现降价现象。 不同行业进口含量差异显著，全行业平均直接加间接进口占比约为 10%，高端制造业间接进口占比较高，服务业和劳动力密集型产业直接 进口占比较高。通过计算行业进口含量乘以关税税率变化，可预测超额 通胀理论值。 模型显示，实际通胀与理论预测值呈正相关关系，截至 2025 年 6 月， 相关系数约为 0.4。例如，5 月份美国实际有效关税税率上涨 7 个百分 点，导致核心 PCE 价格指数上涨 0.28 个百分点。 Q&A 关税对美国通胀的影响有多大？如何通过模型进 ...

美国的困境：特朗普的"友善竞争"与内外交困 2. 爱泼斯坦案的政治漩涡： 司法部公布的爱泼斯坦自杀监控录像，声称其"纯属自杀"，却偏偏缺失关键一分钟，并被技术专家发现剪辑痕迹。 这一事件引 发了巨大的公众质疑，马斯克等名人公开嘲讽，数百万网友涌入特朗普的社交媒体账号，要求公开所谓的"死亡名单"。 然而，特朗普却斥责支持者"愚蠢自 私"，这一举动反而招致共和党众议长迈克·约翰逊公开反驳，要求公布真相，民主党更是乘机猛攻，使特朗普陷入孤立无援的境地。 3. 贸易战的苦果： 美国国内正承受着贸易战的恶果。沃尔玛货架上的中国产玩具猴价格从84美元飙涨至140美元，服装价格也暴涨60%。 与此同时，中国对 稀土的出口限制，让美国军工产业和特斯拉等企业的生产线面临瘫痪的风险。 财政部长贝森特私下警告，若不降低关税，中期选举将面临彻底失败。 4. 失败的遏华战略： 特朗普政府试图联合盟友共同对抗中国，却遭遇了集体冷遇。德国总理公开反对"脱钩"，日本拒绝配合芯片制裁，澳大利亚则悄悄恢 复了对华煤炭贸易。 巴西总统卢拉更是直接对抗美国的关税威胁。《纽约时报》甚至评论特朗普的遏华战略已沦为"独角戏"。 二、无奈的妥协：技术让步与 ...

据商务部部长王文涛18日在新闻发布会上介绍，中国消费市场规模稳居全球第二，过去四年社会消费品零售总额年均增长5.5%，今年有望突破50万亿元人 民币，2020年为39.1万亿元。和美国比，从绝对值来看，中国的社会消费品零售总额相当于美国的80%左右；但是从实际购买力来看，按照世界银行所给出 的数据和算法，我们的这一总额已经超过美国，是美国的1.6倍。 法新社18日在报道中国"十四五"发展成就时提到：中国正在努力转向以内需为主导的经济增长模式，而非依靠基础设施投资、制造业和出口等传统增长引 擎，自美国新政府上任以来，这种转变变得更加紧迫。在此背景下，消费对中国经济增长的年均贡献率达到60%左右，主引擎和稳定器作用增强，强大国内 市场优势凸显。 HIH rs 8 图片说明： 图片说明： 当白天的燥热渐渐消退，北京城夜间的活力开始悄然绽放。图为7月18日晚，北京市民在全国农业展览馆夜市享音乐、品美食。 ●本报记者 熊昕仪 张依依 ●于 文 "大、强、韧" 王文涛18日表示，回望过去五年，我们深刻体会到，越是困难大、挑战多，越能体现我国制度优势、庞大市场和完备产业体系优势，越能展现我国经济的广 阔潜力、强大韧性和强劲 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's foreign trade has achieved record growth in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in the export of "new three samples" products by 28.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guangdong's total goods trade import and export reached 4.55 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4%, surpassing the national growth rate by 1.1% [1]. - The export value was 2.89 trillion RMB, growing by 1.1%, while imports reached 1.66 trillion RMB, increasing by 9.5% [1]. - Guangdong's foreign trade accounted for 20.9% of the national total, contributing 28% to the national foreign trade growth [1]. Group 2: Role of Enterprises - There are 130,000 foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong, an increase of 7.6%, with private enterprises making up 110,000 of these, growing by 8.6% [2]. - The total import and export value of private enterprises reached 2.92 trillion RMB, accounting for 64.2% of the province's total foreign trade [2]. Group 3: Export Product Composition - The export of electromechanical products was 1.96 trillion RMB, a growth of 7.2%, representing 67.8% of the total export value [2]. - High-tech product exports reached 505.43 billion RMB, increasing by 13.3%, with significant growth in machine tools and drones at 18.7% and 29.2%, respectively [2]. Group 4: Import Trends - Guangdong's imports of electromechanical products surged by 19.3% to 1.16 trillion RMB, making up 70.1% of total imports [5][6]. - Key components such as central processing units, aircraft parts, and integrated circuits saw increases of 322.5%, 27.5%, and 14.3%, respectively [5]. Group 5: Industrial Upgrades - The province is focusing on industrial transformation, with significant demand for high-end manufacturing equipment reflected in the import statistics [5][6]. - Imports of aerospace equipment and semiconductor manufacturing equipment grew by 63.8% and 47%, respectively, indicating a shift towards advanced manufacturing capabilities [6].

Group 1 - On July 18, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Guotai Junan International (01788), and Haotian International Investment (01341) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 32.15 billion, 29.95 billion, and 28.56 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Kingsoft Cloud (03896) were the top three companies by trading volume, with trading amounts of 23.60 billion, 14.31 billion, and 12.46 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - The top ten active companies in the Southbound Stock Connect (Shanghai-Hong Kong) included Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 32.15 billion and a net buy amount of -2.94 billion, Guotai Junan International (01788) with 29.95 billion and -2.20 billion, and Haotian International Investment (01341) with 28.56 billion and +0.8955 million [2] - In the Southbound Stock Connect (Shenzhen-Hong Kong), the top ten active companies included Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 23.60 billion and a net buy amount of +6.82 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) with 14.31 billion and -2.47 billion, and Kingsoft Cloud (03896) with 12.46 billion and +2.34 billion [2]

7月16日，北京市朝阳区人民法院对一起玩具著作权侵权案公开宣判。主犯朱某因委托工厂生产假冒 泡泡玛特"温度""夜之城"系列玩具，并通过直播间销往全国，被判处有期徒刑4年罚金 60万元。 记者了解到，2023年7月至 2024年1月朱某委托宁某、彭某某在某动漫公司内非法生产假冒泡泡玛特公 司"温度""夜之城"系列玩具产品，朱某向宁某支付货款60余万元。部分假冒产品流入廖某某李某某等人 经营的直播间向全国销售。公安机关现场查获侵权玩具 8万余件，货值40余万元。 法院审理认定，朱某团伙未经许可复制发行著作权人美术作品，非法经营额达100余万元，属"情节特别 严重"，已构成侵犯著作权罪。鉴于朱某当庭认罪认罚、无前科并退缴12万元违法所得，依法从轻处罚。 同案人员宁某、彭某某以侵犯著作权罪另案获刑，廖某某等 3人以销售侵权复制品罪被追究刑责。 朱某当庭表示不上诉。 综合自：新京报、朝阳法苑 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 王蔚 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes E ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 03690 | 美团-W | 284102.50 | 60573.58 | 1.13 | | 00939 | 建设银行 | 170296.95 | 59085.07 | -0.95 | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 648807.54 | 31548.18 | -2.01 | | 00354 | 中国软件国际 | 225381.97 | 12733.82 | 12.75 | | 01788 | 国泰君安国际 | 502477.84 | 11952.65 | -0.16 | | 02015 | 理想汽车-W | 371693.95 | 8664.30 | 9.73 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 520295.10 | 8153.49 | -1.14 | | 00981 | 中芯国际 | 250990.66 | 5384.85 | 1.98 | | 01349 | 复旦张江 | 179142.01 | 323.15 | 14.29 ...