1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The implementation of the new policy of resuming VAT on the interest income of newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025, will have a significant impact on the spot bond market and will also be transmitted to the pricing logic and trading strategies of Treasury bond futures. The key to whether there will be inter - period gaming opportunities or short - squeezing phenomena in Treasury bond futures lies in whether the CTD bond (cheapest to deliver bond) switches. The T contract may be a special case in the subsequent CTD bond changes, and there may be inter - period arbitrage opportunities and short - squeezing [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Whether the Cancellation of Tax Exemption on Treasury Bonds Will Lead to CTD Bond Switching: The T Contract Is a Special Case - Generally, new bonds are difficult to replace old bonds as CTD bonds. New bonds with longer durations need to be fully discounted, which is difficult to achieve in practice. However, the 7 - year new bond in the T contract's deliverable bonds has a relatively short duration and only needs a small discount to become the CTD bond [11][12]. - There are two common empirical rules for identifying CTD bonds: when the spot bond yield is higher than the coupon rate (3%) of the Treasury bond futures virtual bond, high - duration bonds tend to be CTD bonds; when it is lower, low - duration bonds tend to be CTD bonds. For bonds with similar durations, the one with a higher yield to maturity is more likely to be the CTD bond [11]. - For TS, TF, and TL contracts, the newly issued bonds are generally of longer duration among the deliverable bonds, so they need to be significantly discounted to replace old bonds as CTD bonds. For the T contract, the 7 - year new bond only needs to have an issue rate about 3 - 6bp higher than the active bond to become the CTD bond for the 2512 or 2603 contracts, while the 10 - year new bond needs an issue rate about 30bp higher [14][17][18]. 3.2 How Will the Inter - period Change After the Cancellation of Tax Exemption: Focus on Contracts with CTD Bond Switching - The key to whether there are inter - period arbitrage opportunities after the cancellation of tax exemption on Treasury bonds lies in whether the CTD bonds of near - and far - month contracts switch. If the CTD bonds switch, considering the tax - exemption effect, the contract with the old bond as the CTD bond may be stronger than the one with the new bond, and inter - period arbitrage can be carried out [19]. - Contracts where CTD bonds are more likely to switch are TS2603, T2603, and T2512. With the new issuance of 2 - year and 7 - year Treasury bonds on September 12, there may be opportunities to focus on the inter - period spreads of TS2512 - TS2603 and T2512 - T2603 [7][20]. 3.3 Will There Be a "Short - Squeezing" in Treasury Bond Futures After the Cancellation of Tax Exemption on Treasury Bonds? - The possibility of short - squeezing in Treasury bond futures contracts with old bonds as CTD bonds is relatively small. The large stock of old bonds and subsequent issuances ensure sufficient supply, and excessive chasing will reduce their cost - effectiveness, thus suppressing the buying sentiment [23][25]. - Contracts where CTD bonds may switch to new bonds may face short - squeezing pressure. New bonds have low supply and circulation at the initial issuance stage, and the market lacks experience in dealing with new bonds as CTD bonds. The T contract and TS2603 contract are more likely to have CTD bond switches, and the T contract may face more severe short - squeezing pressure due to its large delivery volume and the relatively poor liquidity of the 7 - year Treasury bond [25].

Group 1 - The article highlights a surge in stock prices for companies like Krispy Kreme and GoPro, driven by retail investor interest and high short-selling ratios [1][3] - Krispy Kreme's stock rose approximately 34% in pre-market trading, following a nearly 27% increase the previous day, while GoPro's stock soared over 83% after a 41% rise [1] - Companies such as Beyond Meat and 1-800-Flowers.com also experienced pre-market increases of around 15%, with high short-selling ratios of 38% and 71.66% respectively [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the phenomenon of "meme stocks," which are characterized by retail investor enthusiasm and lack of fundamental support for price increases [3] - S3 Partners' Ihor Dusaniwsky describes meme stocks as "battlefield stocks," where retail investors and short-sellers engage in intense market competition [3] - The article draws parallels to the speculative frenzy surrounding GameStop during the pandemic, warning that rapid price increases could be followed by equally swift declines [3] Group 3 - Analysts, including Barclays' Stefano Pascale, express concerns about excessive market enthusiasm, citing signs of a bubble, such as the rise of SPAC mergers and the performance of ARK Innovation ETF [4] - Pascale emphasizes that certain market segments exhibit significant bubble characteristics, indicating potential risks for investors [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - The current trend in gold is characterized as a "big sweep" pattern, with expectations that this will continue and intensify, similar to the market behavior observed after the 2011 peak [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate a volatile market, with significant price movements expected, including sudden drops and recoveries [1][4] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a range of fluctuations, with a daily high of 3338 and a low of 3294, indicating a volatile trading environment [4] - The analysis suggests a bearish outlook for gold, with key resistance at the 3340 level and support at 3310, indicating potential for further declines if these levels are breached [5] - Silver has shown a strong bullish trend, reaching new highs not seen since March 2012, but caution is advised as it approaches critical resistance levels [6] Group 3 - The trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on short positions until the 3340 resistance is broken, while also considering potential rebounds from support levels [5] - For silver, the recommendation is to watch for potential pullbacks after recent gains, with specific price targets for short positions outlined [8] - The analysis of futures contracts for gold and silver indicates a bearish sentiment, with specific price levels identified for potential trading opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is experiencing one of the largest short squeezes in recent years, which may continue in the coming weeks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs' data shows that the "most shorted stocks" index has surged 42% from its April low, with a 16% increase in the past month and a 10.8% rise in the last five trading days [1][3] - Recent macroeconomic data has shown unexpected resilience, with the ISM manufacturing index and non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations [3] - The interest rate environment is becoming more accommodative, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing below 5% [3] - Hedge funds have adjusted their positions, with total leverage rising to the 100th percentile over the past five years, and net leverage increasing by 1.6 percentage points to the 68th percentile [3] - Systematic funds (CTAs) have net bought approximately $30 billion in U.S. stocks over the past month, indicating strong short-covering pressure [3] Group 2: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data suggests a positive outlook, with small-cap stocks potentially becoming a focal point as short-selling levels reach extreme highs [4] - Despite potential turning points ahead, the most shorted stocks have not yet entered extreme short-squeeze territory, indicating further upside potential [6] - When Goldman Sachs' most shorted index rises over 15% in two weeks, the market tends to maintain a stable upward trend [6] - Technical analysis suggests that the outlook following this short squeeze may remain optimistic, with the Russell 2000 index being an exception in CTA strategy demand [6] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Overall risk appetite has returned, although the total leverage of hedge funds has reached a historical high at the 99th percentile [8] - The sentiment in the market has shifted from caution to enthusiasm, with hedge fund investment strategies becoming more aggressive [10] - Upcoming catalysts, such as the CPI data release, may impact market trends, but current technical indicators and institutional positioning support the continuation of this short-term rally [10]

Core Viewpoint - Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a remarkable price surge, increasing over 40% within 72 hours, reaching $2600, marking its best three-day performance since 2019 [1] Group 1: Price Movement - As of the latest report, ETH is priced at $2543.91, reflecting a nearly 9% increase [2] - The price surge has significantly outperformed other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent bullish trend is attributed to three main factors: macroeconomic improvements, technical upgrades, and increased accumulation by large investors [5] - A significant technical upgrade, the Pectra upgrade, was successfully implemented on May 7, enhancing Ethereum's usability and flexibility [5] - Following the upgrade, a "short squeeze" occurred in the futures market, with short positions being liquidated amounting to $437.94 million, which was substantially higher than the $211.29 million in long liquidations [5] Group 3: Whale Activity - On-chain data indicates that addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have been strategically increasing their holdings since late April, with their total supply reaching the highest level since March 2025 [6]