陈泓缣指出，该工厂10月已正式投产，作为马来西亚首个可产出ISCC CORSIA及ISCC EU双认证SAF的 核心产能，其35万吨/年产能需稳定原料供应。 马来西亚棕榈油局数据显示，废食用油出口近年增长显著：2024年出口量达46.5万吨，较2023年的31万 吨大幅提升。长期来看，原料需求压力将进一步放大。陈泓缣预计，2028年第三季度彭亨州投产的马来 西亚国家石油公司、埃尼能源及Euglena合资生物精炼厂将带来65万吨/年原料处理能力。届时两座工厂 合计原料需求达100万吨/年，马来西亚将与国际买家直接争夺全球废食用油资源。陈泓缣强调，废食用 油供应链的核心挑战在于原料收集。马来西亚需扩大家庭及企业废食用油收集基础设施建设，同时需避 免影响生物柴油等其他行业供应，且不能依赖未经认证的进口原料。 中化新网讯 近日，马来西亚种植与大宗商品部副部长陈泓缣表示，随着柔佛州EcoCeres可持续航空燃 料(SAF)工厂逐步释放产能，该国2026年废食用油(UCO)出口量将面临压力。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Jiaao Environmental Protection Industry Overview - **Industry**: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - **Company**: Jiaao Environmental Protection Key Points and Arguments Strategic Transformation and Production Capacity - Jiaao Environmental Protection has strategically transformed its business towards the production of bio-jet fuel (SAF) with the Lianyungang Jiaao Phase I project now fully operational, expected to produce 370,000 tons annually, and has achieved bulk export sales, significantly improving revenue and profit [2][3] Market Demand and Growth Projections - The global demand for bio-jet fuel is projected to see substantial growth starting in 2025, with many countries setting blending ratio targets. It is expected that demand will exceed 6 million tons in 2025 and 18 million tons by 2030, indicating a broad market outlook [2][4] Financial Performance Highlights - Jiaao Environmental Protection reported significant revenue growth in the first three quarters, with a quarterly revenue increase of over 900 million yuan, and a turnaround to profitability in Q3 with earnings of 50 million yuan. The SAF price has surged from an average of 13,000 yuan/ton in the first half to around 20,000 yuan/ton, expanding profit margins [2][5] Cost Control and Profit Margin Expectations - The production of one ton of bio-jet fuel requires approximately 1.43 tons of waste oil, with a projected cost of around 13,000 yuan per ton. However, through centralized procurement and long-term contracts, costs could potentially be reduced to 12,000 yuan or lower. With a conservative selling price of 16,000 yuan/ton, the gross profit per ton could reach 3,000 to 4,000 yuan [2][6] Policy Support and Global Trends - Various countries have set blending ratio targets to promote bio-jet fuel development, with the EU aiming for a 6% blending ratio by 2030, and countries like Finland, Sweden, and Norway targeting 30%. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that 65% of the aviation industry's net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050 will be achieved through SAF [2][7] Challenges and Opportunities in Production - Globally, many companies are advancing bio-jet fuel projects, with an expected production capacity of over 17 million tons by 2030. However, uncertainties remain regarding raw material supply, particularly for agricultural products and waste oils. In China, while specific blending ratio requirements have not been set, many airlines are initiating pilot projects for bio-jet fuel [2][8][9] Regional Market Insights - The EU has implemented strict targets to promote bio-jet fuel, with a projected consumption of 900,000 tons by 2025 and 2.7 million tons by 2030. The UK has set ambitious targets as well, with a consumption estimate of over 1.2 million tons by 2030, indicating a significant import gap [2][10][11] Competitive Landscape for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies like Jiaao Environmental Protection have obtained certifications and export licenses, positioning them competitively in the international market. With ongoing policy support and expanding pilot applications, these companies are expected to enhance their international competitiveness and seize opportunities from the growing global SAF demand [2][12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 104.79 CNY as of November 11 [1]. Core Views - The company is transitioning towards sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, which is expected to be a key growth driver for future revenues and profits. The SAF project in Lianyungang is projected to significantly enhance the company's profitability and market position [8][9][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Jiaao Environmental Protection, is a leading producer of environmentally friendly plasticizers and has recently launched SAF products. It has established a complete industrial chain through strategic acquisitions [12][13]. - The Lianyungang SAF project aims to produce 500,000 tons of biomass energy annually, with the first batch of SAF products expected to be exported in 2025 [8][12][33]. Industry Perspective - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the implementation of SAF blending policies across multiple countries, including the EU, UK, and Indonesia, which will drive demand for SAF [9][37]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in SAF demand, with projections indicating that by 2030, China's domestic demand for SAF could reach 2.81 million tons, supported by various national policies [9][37][40]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 42.23 billion CNY, 64.96 billion CNY, and 97.23 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.89 billion CNY, 3.91 billion CNY, and 6.98 billion CNY [9][10]. - The SAF project is projected to yield a net profit of approximately 6.1 billion CNY at full capacity, with significant growth potential as the company expands its production capabilities [34][35].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the quarter with $108 million in cash and cash equivalents, with combined operating revenue, interest, and investment income of $43.6 million, compared to approximately $2 million in the same quarter last year, marking an increase of approximately $41 million [11][12] - The loss from operations was $3.7 million, while non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was a positive $6.6 million, an increase of approximately $23 million from last year's adjusted EBITDA of negative $16.7 million [11][12] - Gevo North Dakota generated income from operations of $12.3 million and a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $17.8 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gevo North Dakota is now a core earnings engine, demonstrating reliable energy production, efficient carbon capture, and consistent monetization of clean fuel production credits [13] - Gevo R&G generated income from operations of $0.5 million and positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully sold all of its 2025 Section 45(z) clean fuel production credits for a total of $52 million, with net proceeds of approximately $29 million received so far [13][14] - The company expects to grow its carbon dioxide removal (CDR) sales from $1 million in Q2 to $3-$5 million by the end of 2025 [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize adjusted EBITDA from existing assets and plans to build a jet fuel plant at Gevo North Dakota, which could add an additional adjusted EBITDA uplift of about $150 million [9][10] - The company is focusing on monetizing carbon value through various methods, including selling carbon credits and production tax credits, as part of its business model [6][7] - The company is also working on expanding its carbon capture and sequestration capabilities and optimizing energy use at its facilities [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the business environment in North Dakota, highlighting its pro-agriculture and pro-energy stance, which aligns well with the company's operations [6] - The management believes that the integration of ethanol production and carbon sequestration is crucial for achieving the best economics and carbon scores for jet fuel [30] - The company anticipates that its operating cash flows will normalize and trend towards break-even or better in the coming quarters [15] Other Important Information - The company has implemented Verity, a digital carbon tracking and verification platform, at its Gevo North Dakota facility, which is expected to enhance transparency and trust in carbon accounting [21][22] - The company has partnered with Frontier Infrastructure Holdings to offer integrated carbon management solutions for ethanol producers [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the incremental capital and steps required to optimize your operation and a reasonable timeline to achieve $110 million of EBITDA? - Management indicated that incremental capital is estimated to be around $15 million, focusing on debottlenecking the ethanol plant and optimizing energy use [34][35] Question: Can you elaborate on the DOE loan extension and how it increases the likelihood of DOE financing? - Management noted that the shift of the DOE loan guarantee to North Dakota is favorable due to the existing profitable operations and infrastructure [38][39] Question: Can you provide insight into the EBITDA drivers for next year? - Management highlighted that growth will primarily come from carbon sequestration capacity expansion and debottlenecking efforts [43][44] Question: How should we project the incremental CI improvement over the next number of quarters? - Management explained that the CI score is expected to drop due to the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will increase 45Z generation [75][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the quarter with $108 million in cash and cash equivalents, with combined operating revenue, interest, and investment income of $43.6 million, compared to approximately $2 million in the same quarter last year, marking an increase of approximately $41 million [11][12] - The loss from operations was $3.7 million, while non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was a positive $6.6 million, an improvement of approximately $23 million from last year's negative $16.7 million [12][13] - Gevo North Dakota generated income from operations of $12.3 million and a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $17.8 million [11][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gevo North Dakota is now a core earnings engine, demonstrating reliable energy production and efficient carbon capture, contributing significantly to the company's financial performance [13][14] - Gevo R&G generated income from operations of $0.5 million and positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully sold all of its 2025 Section 45Z clean fuel production credits for a total of $52 million, with net proceeds of approximately $29 million received so far [13][14] - The company is expanding its carbon value derived from carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and anticipates growth in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credit sales from $1 million in Q2 to $3 million-$5 million by the end of 2025 [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize adjusted EBITDA from existing assets and plans to build an ATJ-30 jet fuel plant at Gevo North Dakota, which is expected to add an additional adjusted EBITDA uplift of about $150 million [9][28] - The company is focusing on monetizing carbon value through various methods, including selling carbon credits and production tax credits, which are seen as key initiatives for growth [6][7][13] - The company is also working on expanding its carbon sequestration capacity and exploring partnerships for additional CO2 storage [66][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the business environment in North Dakota, highlighting its pro-agriculture and pro-energy stance, which aligns well with the company's operations [6] - The management team believes that the integration of ethanol production and carbon sequestration is crucial for achieving the best economics and carbon scores for jet fuel [30] - The company expects to normalize operating cash flows and trend towards break-even or better in the coming quarters, supported by recurring monetization of tax credits and positive adjusted EBITDA generation [15] Other Important Information - The company has received a conditional commitment from the Department of Energy for financing, which is expected to be more favorable due to the existing operational assets in North Dakota [39][40] - The company is implementing Verity, a digital carbon tracking and verification platform, to enhance transparency and efficiency in carbon accounting [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the incremental capital and steps required to optimize your operation and a reasonable timeline to achieve $110 million of EBITDA? - Management indicated that incremental capital is estimated to be around $15 million, focusing on debottlenecking the ethanol plant and optimizing energy use [34][35] Question: Can you elaborate on the DOE loan extension and how it increases the likelihood of financing? - Management noted that the shift of the loan guarantee to North Dakota is seen as a positive development, as the existing operational assets reduce the need for external financing [38][39] Question: Can you provide insight into the EBITDA drivers for next year? - Management highlighted that growth will primarily come from carbon sequestration capacity expansion and debottlenecking efforts, with a focus on maximizing carbon value [42][44] Question: How should we project the incremental CI improvement over the next quarters? - Management explained that the CI score is expected to drop due to the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will increase 45Z generation, and they are exploring additional decarbonization measures [71][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the quarter with $108 million in cash and cash equivalents, with combined operating revenue, interest, and investment income of $43.6 million, marking a significant increase from approximately $2 million in the same quarter last year [11][12] - The loss from operations was $3.7 million, while non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was a positive $6.6 million, an improvement of approximately $23 million from last year's negative $16.7 million [11][12] - Gevo North Dakota generated income from operations of $12.3 million and a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $17.8 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gevo North Dakota has become a core earnings engine, demonstrating reliable energy production and efficient carbon capture, contributing significantly to the company's financial performance [12] - Gevo R&G generated income from operations of $0.5 million and positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully sold all of its 2025 Section 45(z) clean fuel production credits for a total of $52 million, with net proceeds of approximately $29 million received so far [12][13] - The company is expanding its carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credit sales, with expectations to grow from $1 million in Q2 to $3-$5 million by the end of 2025 [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to monetize carbon as a key initiative, viewing it as an important co-product that can unlock economics for growth products like jet fuel [5][8] - Plans to build a 30 million-gallon jet fuel plant (ATJ30) at Gevo North Dakota are underway, with expected adjusted EBITDA uplift of about $150 million from this addition [9][27] - The company is focusing on incremental expansions and optimizing existing operations before pursuing larger capital projects [8][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the business environment in North Dakota, highlighting its pro-agriculture and pro-energy stance, which aligns well with the company's operations [5] - The management team believes that the integration of ethanol production and carbon sequestration will lead to better economics and carbon scores for jet fuel production [29] - The company anticipates steady improvement in cash generation and financial flexibility, with a credible pathway to break-even operating cash flow [15] Other Important Information - The company has implemented Verity, a digital carbon tracking and verification platform, at its Gevo North Dakota facility, which is expected to enhance transparency and efficiency in carbon accounting [20][22] - A strategic partnership with Frontier Infrastructure Holdings aims to offer integrated carbon management solutions for ethanol producers [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the incremental capital and steps required to optimize your operation and a reasonable timeline to achieve $110 million of EBITDA? - Management indicated that incremental capital is estimated at around $15 million, focusing on debottlenecking the ethanol plant and optimizing energy use [33][34] Question: Can you elaborate on the DOE loan extension and how it increases the likelihood of DOE financing? - Management noted that the shift of the loan guarantee to North Dakota reflects the project's attractiveness due to existing profitable operations and reduced financing needs [36][38] Question: What are the EBITDA drivers for next year? - Management highlighted that improvements in carbon intensity scores and operational efficiencies will be key drivers, with a focus on maximizing carbon value [40][43] Question: How should we project the incremental CI improvement over the next quarters? - Management explained that the CI score is expected to drop due to provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will enhance credit generation [71][74] Question: Can you update on conversations with potential customers for carbon sequestration services? - Management confirmed ongoing discussions with companies interested in co-locating to utilize the sequestration capacity, which could enhance profitability [65][66]

Summary of Conference Call on SAF and Biodiesel Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and biodiesel market, particularly in Europe and China [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Increase of SAF and HVO** - European FOB high-end price for aviation kerosene has risen to $2,860 per ton, marking a 51% increase year-to-date [1][2]. - The increase is attributed to rising HVO prices, which have led to a tighter SAF supply, and seasonal production adjustments in Europe [2]. 2. **Government Support for Biodiesel** - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has proposed support for domestic biodiesel and marine fuel blending operations, which could significantly increase domestic biodiesel blending volumes if a 24% blending ratio is assumed [1][3]. - This policy is expected to create a substantial market increment for biodiesel in China [3]. 3. **EU Carbon Emission Regulations** - Starting January 1, 2024, the EU will include ship carbon emissions in its carbon market, with a full 100% carbon emission requirement for ships entering Europe from 2026 [1][4]. - This regulation is anticipated to further stimulate demand for biodiesel [4]. 4. **Market Demand and Supply Dynamics** - As of November 8, 2025, China has approved 11.06 million tons of biodiesel export licenses, with European SAF demand expected to rise to a 2% blending ratio, leading to a total demand nearing 1 million tons [1][5]. - The price gap between products and raw materials is widening, suggesting continued profitability for SaaS companies in Q4 [5]. 5. **Company Performance and Capacity Expansion** - 卓越新能 (Zhuoyue New Energy) has stable performance in the biodiesel sector, with production capacities of 200,000 tons in Singapore and 300,000 tons in Thailand, and plans to expand HVO capacity to 100,000 tons [1][6]. - 优蔻 (UCO) has seen a decline in export volume due to the cancellation of export tax rebates but remains competitive due to its high emission reduction efficiency [1][7]. - The export price for UCO has increased by 18.5% year-on-year, although this increase is less than that of downstream products [7]. Recommendations - The companies recommended for investment include 卓越新能 (Zhuoyue New Energy), 山高环能 (Shangao Environmental), and 嘉澳环保 (Jiaao Environmental), all of which have leading positions in their respective fields and significant growth potential [1][8].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline of Fengbei Bio's stock price by nearly 30% within three days of its IPO raises concerns about the company's financial health and governance, particularly as the actual controller has already cashed out over 65 million yuan before the stock plunge [3][7]. Financial Performance - Fengbei Bio's revenue increased from 1.709 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.949 billion yuan in 2024, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased from 133 million yuan to 124 million yuan, marking two consecutive years of negative growth [3]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities plummeted by 86.2%, from 162 million yuan in 2023 to 22.43 million yuan in 2024, and further deteriorated to -7.5 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. Profitability Issues - The gross profit margin has been declining sharply, from 13.95% in 2023 to 9.50% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to an increase in the sales proportion of low-margin industrial-grade mixed oil [5][7]. Trade Barriers Impact - The imposition of a 23.7% anti-dumping tax by the EU in July 2024 led to a drastic reduction in exports, with export revenue dropping from 434 million yuan in 2023 to 50.51 million yuan in 2024, a decline of over 85% [7]. - The average selling price of biofuels decreased by 25.51% from 9,800 yuan per ton in 2022 to 7,300 yuan per ton in 2024, alongside significant price drops in bio-based materials and chemical oils [7]. Expansion Strategy Concerns - Despite a decline in capacity utilization from 99.84% in 2023 to 76.31% in 2024, Fengbei Bio plans to raise 750 million yuan for capacity expansion projects, which may lead to increased depreciation and amortization costs of approximately 58 million yuan annually [8]. - The company's expansion strategy is risky as it heavily relies on market demand, which is currently showing signs of oversupply [8]. Regulatory and Compliance Issues - Fengbei Bio's subsidiaries have faced multiple environmental compliance issues, being listed as key pollutant units and ordered to rectify environmental problems [10]. - There are ongoing legal issues related to a fire incident causing significant inventory loss, and past actions involving questionable financial practices raise concerns about regulatory compliance [10][13]. Market Sentiment and Risks - Historical data indicates that new stocks with a first-day increase of over 150% have a high likelihood of declining in the following months, with an average drop of 27% after one month and 28% after three months [12]. - The company's IPO has become a cautionary tale for investors regarding the risks associated with speculative trading in newly listed stocks [13].

Core Insights - The U.S. biofuel production capacity is expected to grow slowly, with only a 3% increase from early 2024 to early 2025, primarily due to a significant decline in the capacity growth of renewable diesel and other biofuels [1] - The annual production capacity of renewable diesel and other biofuels in the U.S. will only increase by 391 million gallons in 2024, which is less than one-third of the increases seen in 2022 and 2023 [1] - The expansion of the Rodeo refinery by Phillips 66 and the new facility by Renewable Fuels LLC in Bakersfield are the only two new capacity additions, with the Rodeo facility becoming the second-largest renewable diesel plant in the U.S. after its upgrade [1] Group 1 - The capacity growth from the Rodeo and Bakersfield facilities is offset by the closure of four other plants, which reflects the changing profitability dynamics between biofuels and petroleum refining since 2020 [2] - The closures include Monroe Energy's facility in Pennsylvania, Chevron's in California, and Vertex Energy and Jaxon Energy's plants in Alabama and Mississippi, respectively [2] - The decline in biofuel profitability and the rise in petroleum refining margins have led to a slowdown in renewable diesel capacity investments in the coming years [2] Group 2 - There is an increasing focus on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in 2024, which is categorized under "other biofuels" and serves as a substitute for petroleum aviation fuel [3] - The Rodeo facility can convert approximately 150 million gallons per year of renewable diesel capacity to SAF, while the Diamond Green Diesel facility can convert about 235 million gallons per year [3] - Despite the decline in biodiesel capacity due to low profitability, ethanol production capacity is rising, currently accounting for 73% of total U.S. biofuel capacity, mainly driven by stable domestic consumption and increased exports [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. biofuel production capacity is expected to grow slowly, with only a 3% increase from early 2024 to early 2025, primarily due to a significant decline in the capacity growth of renewable diesel and other biofuels [1] - The annual production capacity of renewable diesel and other biofuels will only increase by 391 million gallons in 2024, which is less than one-third of the increases seen in 2022 and 2023 [1] - The expansion of the Phillips 66 Rodeo refinery and the new Renewable Fuels LLC plant in Bakersfield are the only two new capacity additions, with the Rodeo facility becoming the second-largest renewable diesel plant in the U.S. after its upgrade [1] Group 1 - The capacity growth from the Rodeo expansion and the Bakersfield plant is offset by the closure of four facilities, which reflects changes in biofuel and oil refining profit margins since 2020 [2] - The closures include Monroe Energy's facility in Pennsylvania, Chevron's in California, and Vertex Energy and Jaxon Energy's plants in Alabama and Mississippi, respectively [2] - The decline in biofuel profitability and the rise in oil refining profits have led to a slowdown in renewable diesel capacity investments in the coming years [2] Group 2 - There is an increased focus on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in 2024, which is categorized under "other biofuels" and serves as a substitute for petroleum aviation fuel [3] - The Phillips 66 Rodeo plant can convert approximately 150 million gallons per year of renewable diesel capacity to SAF, while the Diamond Green Diesel plant can convert about 235 million gallons per year [3] - Despite a slight decline in biodiesel capacity due to low profitability, ethanol production capacity is on the rise, currently accounting for 73% of total U.S. biofuel capacity, primarily driven by stable domestic consumption and increased exports [3]