相关部门已经开始注意绿色燃料产业。近日，国家能源局组织召开绿色燃料产业发展专题座谈会， 强调要充分认识发展绿色燃料产业的重要意义。会议指出，发展绿色燃料产业有利于替代石油、保 障能源安全，有利于降低碳排放、促进绿色发展，有利于促进新能源非电利用和消纳、增强发展新 动能，是能源领域新质生产力发展的重要方向。 远景能源高级副总裁、首席产品官娄益民向经济观察报表示，政府工作报告的一系列部署为氢能产 业注入了强劲信心，氢能产业化拐点有望加速到来。 他认为，氢能行业发展的痛点在于技术密集、资产重、投资回报周期长。此次国家层面设立低碳专 项基金，意味着氢能有望纳入国家长期战略性的资本配置体系，鼓励相关企业深耕技术研发、提升 系统效率。 娄益民说："氢能产业已进入商业化示范与规模化扩张阶段，国家顶层设计有望为氢能产业打通融 资和市场渠道。" 海德氢能副总经理胡骏明向经济观察报表示："国家低碳转型基金的设立，对氢能及绿色燃料产业 释放出积极信号，未来或将撬动更多产业资本和社会资本关注，作为从业者，我将持续关注相关实 施细则。" 一个新的国家级基金呼之欲出。 作者：潘俊田 封图：图虫创意 3月5日上午，十四届全国人大四次会议在 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：油粕分化 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 豆粕：AgRural：巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收割工作已完成 39%，远低于去年 同期的 50%。由于南里奥格兰德州受干旱影响导致产量下降，AgRural 将全国大 豆产量预估下调 300 万吨至 1.78 亿吨，不过仍将是历史最高纪录，同比增长 3.8%。 USDA 压榨月报：2026 年 1 月大豆压榨量为 2.278 亿蒲，环比减少 0.9%，同比增 加 7%。这一数据略高于市场预期的 2.263 亿蒲。截至 2026 年 1 月底，美国豆油 库存为 24.33 亿磅，环比增长 11.7%，同比激增 33.9%。这一数据也超过市场预 期，为 2023 年 4 月以来的最高水平。USDA 出口检验：截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日的 一周，美国大豆出口检验量为 1,137,582 吨，上周为修正后的 681,545 吨，去年 同期为 702,160 吨。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口检验总量达到 26,182,723 吨，同比减少 32.2%，2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口达到全年出口目标的 58.4% ...

【DT新材料】 获悉，2月18日，日本巨头 瑞翁Zeon 为其新型环状烯烃聚合物（COP）生产厂举行奠基仪式，扩产以应对除光学应用外，以及医疗和半导 体领域应用的不断扩展所带来的预期需求增长。该项目大规模建设将于2026年3月开始，目标在2028财年上半年竣工， 届时Zeon的COP年产能将比当前水 平增加约30%。 早在2025年6月，在更新的中期战略中，瑞翁就表示将继续进行投资组合重组，并扩大高利润产品的产能。其中就包括 建立一座年产1.2万吨 环烯烃聚合物 （COP） 装置， 成为其冈山县仓敷市的水岛工厂之后的第二个COP生产基地， 产能将从当前的42,000吨提升至约 54,000吨。 同时，瑞翁 将逐步停止德山弹性体工厂的低利润产品生产， 到2026年，计划停止生产 ESBR-1 和 NBR胶乳 。从2028年起，还将逐步淘汰德山基地的 丁 二烯橡胶 生产。 据透露，这些产能削减将占该日本工厂弹性体产能的60%。 不过，瑞翁将继续生产ESBR-2、 丁腈橡胶 和溶聚丁苯橡胶，这些产品被归类为高利润产品。 同时，去年7月，公司宣布已经开始动工建设一座小型实验设 施，旨在高效利用源自生物质及其他原料的乙 ...

Core Viewpoint - Singapore will impose a sustainable aviation fuel tax on flights in and out of the country starting this year, with ticket taxes ranging from $0.75 to $32, aimed at funding the development of sustainable aviation fuel, leading to a slight increase in travel costs to and from Singapore [1][9]. Group 1: Tax Implementation - The new tax policy will apply to flights departing from Changi Airport on or after October 1, 2026, and tickets sold on or after April 1, 2026 [2][10]. - Passengers will pay additional fees based on travel distance and class of service, with the lowest tax for economy class flights in Southeast Asia set at 1 Singapore dollar (approximately $0.75) and the highest for premium class flights to the Americas at 41.6 Singapore dollars (approximately $32) [2][10]. Group 2: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development - The tax revenue will support the expansion of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) usage, which is typically produced from waste cooking oil or agricultural waste, contributing to significant reductions in aviation carbon emissions without requiring aircraft modifications [1][9]. - Singapore is home to the largest SAF plant in Southeast Asia and plans to start construction of a new generation production facility this year, having signed fuel supply agreements with major airlines like JetBlue and Singapore Airlines [1][9]. Group 3: Regional Developments in Southeast Asia - Southeast Asia is expected to become a global hub for SAF production, with new projects and policies emerging in the region, including Thailand's plan to build a SAF plant in Bangkok by 2025 and Malaysia and Vietnam achieving domestic production milestones last year [4][12]. - Indonesia has announced plans to expand its existing production capacity, while other countries in the region, such as the Philippines, are simplifying approval processes to attract fuel developers [5][12]. Group 4: Global Context and Challenges - The aviation industry accounts for approximately 2.5% of global annual carbon emissions, with emissions growth outpacing other transportation sectors [7][14]. - The International Civil Aviation Organization has set a goal for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, stating that the use of sustainable aviation fuel could reduce aviation emissions by about 65% [8][14]. - However, there are concerns about the rapid scalability of sustainable aviation fuel, partly due to the rollback of clean energy policies during the Trump administration, which has affected global production momentum [8][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to peak coal and oil consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aligning with its strategic decision to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality, while transitioning to a greener economy [1] Group 1: Energy Consumption Trends - Coal and oil consumption is expected to peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with fossil energy consumption's share projected to drop below 75% by 2030 [1] - Coal consumption is anticipated to peak around 2027, with growth in power and chemical industries, while sectors like steel and construction may see a decline [1] - Oil consumption is expected to peak around 2026, with fuel oil already at its peak and chemical feedstock oil continuing to grow [1] Group 2: Energy Structure Transition - The focus will be on enhancing the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, with a gradual reduction in coal consumption while ensuring energy security [2] - The government plans to implement total coal consumption control in key regions and promote the replacement of scattered coal [2] - There will be an emphasis on the integration of oil and gas exploration with renewable energy development [2] Group 3: Development of Non-Fossil Energy - The government aims to accelerate the construction of clean energy bases, including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, while promoting distributed energy solutions [3] - By 2030, the share of non-fossil energy consumption is targeted to reach around 25% [3] Group 4: Capacity Regulation and Industry Challenges - The peak in coal and oil consumption may lead to structural issues in the coal and refining industries, potentially causing increased uncertainty in energy supply stability [4] - There will be a need for capacity regulation to optimize structure and layout, with a focus on reducing oil production while increasing chemical output [4] - The government encourages market-driven mergers and acquisitions to phase out inefficient capacities in coal and refining sectors [4]

笔者注意到，三大区域美丽中国先行区行动方案关注环境污染治理、生态保护修复、生态文明建设，均 将绿色低碳发展列为优先任务，强调绿色低碳的引领作用。 美丽中国先行区建设是一项系统工程，各区域应以绿色低碳为导向，以改革创新为动力，协同推进经济 社会发展绿色化、低碳化，让推动美丽中国建设的绿色低碳动能更加强劲。 在国务院办公厅转发生态环境部《关于建设美丽中国先行区的实施意见》后，生态环境部近期又会同相 关部门联合印发了京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区三大区域美丽中国先行区建设行动方案，进一步明确 了三大区域美丽中国先行区建设的目标蓝图和行动路线图。三大战略区域美丽中国先行区建设的高起点 起步得到广泛关注。 在美丽中国先行区建设实施路径方面，京津冀在产业转型上布局传统产业绿色化数字化改造提升工程、 推广使用绿色低碳钢材，在能源转型上明确平原地区全面建成高污染燃料禁燃区，在运输结构调整上提 出推广大宗货物"公转铁+新能源车"运输模式。长三角大力推动新质生产力发展，强调发展壮大绿色低 碳环保产业，构建区域碳足迹管理体系，建设海上风电项目和跨省份特高压工程，打造区域充换电基础 设施"一张网"。粤港澳大湾区突出绿色低碳发展能级提升 ...

Group 1: Industrial Transition Overview - The report highlights that global industrial transition is entering a decisive phase by 2025, with a clear decarbonization path established[3] - The focus has shifted from "can emissions be reduced" to "how to achieve large-scale reductions at acceptable costs"[6] - In 2024, global CO2 emissions are projected to reach 3.82 billion tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[8] Group 2: Key Challenges - Five core constraints identified include technology deployment pace differences, insufficient low-carbon demand, fragmented policies, infrastructure gaps, and uneven capital allocation[4] - Approximately 50% of industrial emissions can be reduced using existing mature technologies, while the remaining emissions rely on advanced technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[6] - The rising interest rates are expected to increase the costs of wind and solar energy by approximately 30%[6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In 2024, the aviation sector is expected to see a 10.4% increase in operational activity, contributing 1.108 billion tons of CO2 emissions, a 6.4% rise from the previous year[8] - The cement and steel industries are projected to experience slight decreases in emissions, while sectors like aviation and aluminum will see significant increases[8] Group 4: Policy and Economic Environment - The global industrial transition exhibits significant regional differentiation, with the EU leading compliance, the US balancing incentives and compliance, and emerging markets developing frameworks[14] - The economic environment is characterized by rising interest rates and cost inflation, which elevate the economic feasibility threshold for low-carbon projects[15] Group 5: Recommendations for Scaling Transition - The report suggests five strategic actions to promote large-scale transition: standardizing demand mechanisms, accelerating shared infrastructure construction, optimizing financing costs, prioritizing mature technology deployment, and enhancing policy and innovation collaboration[23]

Group 1: Industrial Transition Overview - The report highlights that global industrial transition is entering a decisive phase by 2025, with a clear decarbonization path established[3] - Approximately 50% of industrial emissions can be reduced using existing mature technologies, while the remaining emissions rely on deep innovation and large-scale application of frontier technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[6] - In 2024, global CO2 emissions are projected to reach 38.2 billion tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, where high-emission industries contribute nearly 40% of the emission growth[8] Group 2: Key Challenges - The core challenges for high-emission industries have shifted from technical feasibility to economic feasibility and system coordination for large-scale deployment[4] - Five main constraints identified include: technology deployment pace differences, insufficient low-carbon demand, fragmented policies, infrastructure gaps, and uneven capital allocation[4] - The rise in interest rates and cost inflation has increased the economic viability threshold for low-carbon projects, making financing and policy coordination critical for project implementation[15] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the aviation sector, operational activity is expected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, with emissions increasing to 1.108 billion tons, a rise of 6.4%[8] - The shipping industry will see a 5.5% increase in operational activity, with emissions reaching 0.847 billion tons, up by 2.7%[8] - The cement and steel industries are projected to experience slight decreases in emissions, while sectors like aluminum and basic chemicals will see significant increases in emissions[8] Group 4: Policy and Economic Environment - The global industrial transition exhibits significant regional differentiation, with the EU leading compliance, the US balancing incentives and compliance, and emerging markets developing frameworks[14] - The EU's carbon market is expected to cover over 45% of industrial emissions by 2030, while the US faces policy volatility affecting corporate decision-making[14] - Emerging markets like China and India are accelerating carbon accounting systems, but face challenges in policy maturity and infrastructure development[14] Group 5: Recommendations for Scaling Transition - Establish standardized low-carbon demand mechanisms to enhance the credibility of demand signals and promote public procurement of low-carbon products[23] - Accelerate the construction of shared infrastructure, including integrated energy networks and CO2 transport pipelines, to support large-scale reductions[23] - Innovate financial tools to lower financing costs and support the scaling of frontier technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[24]

国际航空运输协会(以下简称"国际航协")近日发布的报告表明，当前全球航空客运展现出更强的稳定性 与适应能力。国际航协理事长威利·沃尔什指出，在供应链瓶颈、地缘政治冲突、全球贸易疲软等多重 逆风下，航空业的表现值得肯定，"航空公司已成功建立起应对冲击的较强韧性，实现稳定盈利"。预计 2026年全球航空运输需求还将延续增长态势，行业盈利水平有望保持在相对可持续的区间。 亚太引领航空客运增长 国际航协的最新报告显示，2025年全球航空业的旅客运输量据估达49.8亿人次，2026年有望达到52亿人 次，同比增长4.4%，将创历史新高；2026年全球航空业总收入有望达1.053万亿美元，较2025年的1.008 万亿美元增长4.5%；2026年净利润有望达410亿美元，高于2025年的395亿美元。 被称为"森林花园机场"的新加坡樟宜国际机场，2025年迎来历史性高峰，全年旅客吞吐量近7000万人 次，航站楼灯火通明、人流如织，长期处于高密度运行状态。新加坡樟宜国际机场的繁忙景象是去年全 球航空出行需求持续释放的一个缩影。 从区域看，亚太地区依然是全球航空需求增长的重要引擎。据估算，2025年亚太地区航空业的净利润约 ...

作为平衡食糖库存的关键手段，本榨季乙醇转化量同样未达预期。印度糖业协会预计，本榨季乙醇调配 量约为29亿升，远低于行业预期的45亿升。转化量不足直接造成食糖库存积压，进而加剧价格下行压 力。巴拉尼透露，部分地区的食糖出厂价已跌破生产成本，而甘蔗采购成本却在持续攀升。目前甘蔗报 价已涨至每公担355卢比，但同期食糖最低支持价却一直未作调整。印度糖业协会还提出改革乙醇定价 机制的诉求。该协会指出，原料成本占乙醇生产成本的70%-75%，但乙醇定价未能与甘蔗价格上涨同步 调整，直接挤压了酿酒厂的利润空间。 值得注意的是，印度已提前实现20%乙醇汽油掺混(E20)的目标，但乙醇产能过剩问题随之凸显。数据 显示，印度糖料及谷物基乙醇总产能约为200亿升，而满足E20标准的乙醇仅需约110亿升，大量产能处 于闲置状态。 中化新网讯 近日，印度糖业与生物能源制造商协会(ISMA)宣布，正向政府申请16.6亿至22亿美元的联 邦预算支持，用于加速第二代乙醇和可持续航空燃料(SAF)等先进生物燃料的投资布局。 该协会总干事迪帕克·巴拉尼表示，这笔预算资金将主要用于支持先进生物燃料的试点项目、新技术研 发及设备创新，其中约11亿 ...