Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the **cross-border e-commerce logistics industry** and its response to recent **tariff policies** affecting trade with the United States [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Logistics Cost Increase**: Cross-border e-commerce logistics costs have risen by **4-8 RMB per kilogram** (approximately **1 USD**), but merchants have not fully passed this cost onto end consumers, with some products even seeing price reductions due to promotional activities [1][2]. 2. **Optimistic Outlook**: Cross-border e-commerce companies maintain an optimistic view, believing that the U.S. supply chain will struggle to keep pace in the short term, and that U.S. consumer spending remains strong. They plan to absorb tariff increases through price hikes, cost-sharing, and reduced profit margins [1][3]. 3. **Impact of Tariff Trade War**: The tariff trade war has significantly impacted U.S. freight forwarding companies, with a **30% to 50%** drop in order volumes from early April, leading to reduced revenues and underutilized employee workloads [1][8]. 4. **Inventory Levels**: U.S. retailers, such as Walmart and Target, have inventory levels that can sustain operations for about **two months**, indicating that May to July could be critical for restoring trade relations [1][9]. 5. **Adaptation Strategies**: Some logistics companies are adapting to tariff changes by splitting customs declarations to lower overall tax rates, which has enhanced their professional capabilities and funding abilities [1][6]. 6. **Shipping Rate Trends**: Shipping rates on the U.S. West Coast remain relatively stable, while rates on European routes have slightly decreased. The Shanghai to Singapore route has seen a slight increase in rates [1][11][12]. 7. **Long-term Production Shifts**: Some capable sellers may consider relocating production to other countries and expanding into European markets as a long-term strategy [1][4]. 8. **Pressure on Small Traders**: Small U.S. traders are under pressure due to strict contract terms with large demand parties, which require them to absorb increased tariff costs [1][7]. 9. **Future Shipping Dynamics**: The shipping market is expected to see a decline in U.S. inbound volumes from May to July, with ongoing negotiations for long-term contracts facing uncertainty due to tariff impacts [1][15][20]. Additional Important Content - **Tariff Policy Effects**: The current **145% tariff policy** has not fully manifested in sales yet, as merchants have sufficient inventory to maintain stable sales and prices temporarily [2]. - **Logistics Responsibility Shift**: Some importers are shifting from **FOB** to **CIF** or **DDP** terms, increasing the logistics responsibilities of domestic manufacturers [1][5]. - **Market Adjustments**: Shipping companies are making small adjustments in capacity management, such as changing sailing frequencies and routes, but no large-scale changes have been implemented [1][14]. - **Oil Tanker Market Outlook**: The oil tanker market is expected to stabilize and improve, with current rates for VLCC at approximately **55,000 USD** [1][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and strategies within the cross-border e-commerce logistics sector amid changing tariff landscapes.

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone has experienced rapid growth since its establishment in April 2015, with total foreign trade import and export value increasing from 71.2 billion to 537.98 billion yuan over the past decade, averaging an annual growth rate of over 25% [1] - The area has introduced 882 institutional innovation achievements, with 104 of them replicated nationwide, and has ranked first in the institutional innovation index for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024 [2] Trade and Investment - The Qianhai Free Trade Zone has implemented measures to enhance trade liberalization and facilitation, including a "one inspection, one certification, one passage" model for customs clearance between Shenzhen and Hong Kong [3] - The zone has established the "Shenzhen Qianhai e-Station" platform to provide comprehensive overseas services for enterprises, gathering 180 service providers and offering over 60 types of services [3] - In 2024, the cross-border e-commerce import and export value in Qianhai is expected to reach 121.03 billion yuan, marking a 104% increase [7] Legal and Regulatory Framework - The Qianhai Hong Kong International Legal District has introduced policies allowing Hong Kong-funded enterprises to apply Hong Kong laws, creating a multi-level legal institution system [3] - A training program focused on cross-border legal services was launched to assist Chinese enterprises in expanding into European markets, enhancing their confidence in overseas operations [4] Integration with Hong Kong - Qianhai has strengthened integration with Hong Kong and Macau, allowing professionals from these regions to practice in Qianhai without taking local qualification exams [5][6] - The "Qianhai Construction of Deep Integration Development Leading Area Action Plan" aims to enhance the convenience of employment and life for Hong Kong residents in Qianhai by the end of the year [6] Future Outlook - The Qianhai Free Trade Zone plans to continue aligning with international trade rules and explore innovative reforms in telecommunications, healthcare, and education sectors [9] - The area aims to become a high-quality open hub, serving as a key connection point for domestic and international dual circulation [9]

Core Insights - Logistics is a critical link connecting sellers and consumers in the cross-border e-commerce landscape, with a focus on balancing cost control and timely delivery [1] Group 1: Postal Small Packages - Postal small packages are a cost-effective choice for novice sellers, particularly suitable for low-value items like jewelry and stationery, due to their economical shipping rates and simple customs processes [3] - However, longer shipping times and potential loss risks necessitate precise market targeting for non-time-sensitive products [3] - The cost-effectiveness of this channel has diminished in the U.S. market due to changes in customs policies, but it still holds strategic value in emerging regions like Southeast Asia and South America [3] Group 2: Dedicated Line Logistics - Dedicated line logistics offer a unique balance of efficiency and cost for mature markets such as Europe and the Middle East, with shorter shipping times compared to traditional postal channels [4] - This model is particularly suitable for sellers with stable daily order volumes, as it avoids the time fluctuations of postal small packages without incurring the high costs of international express services [4] - Sellers must evaluate whether their primary sales regions align with the dedicated line resources available [4] Group 3: International Express - International express services like DHL and FedEx provide rapid delivery, essential for high-value items needing urgent restocking or promotional products facing platform time assessments [5] - These services can achieve delivery within 72 hours, supporting high-end service commitments for luxury goods and electronics [5] - However, dimensional weight pricing can lead to hidden costs, especially for bulky items, necessitating careful cost calculations and packaging size regulations [5] Group 4: Overseas Warehousing - The overseas warehouse model allows mature sellers to achieve significant improvements by localizing inventory, converting cross-border shipping into domestic delivery [6] - This approach reduces delivery times to 3-5 days and lowers initial shipping costs through bulk transport [6] - Sellers must manage inventory turnover effectively, particularly for medium to large items, to avoid stock issues and enhance product visibility [6] Group 5: Strategic Logistics Combinations - The essence of cross-border e-commerce logistics is a dynamic balancing act, where seasonal products can leverage dedicated lines or overseas warehouses for timely advantages, while new products can test markets with postal small packages [7] - High-margin products may require international express services to maintain brand positioning [7] - Continuous optimization within the cost, time, and risk framework is essential for sellers to navigate global trade successfully [7]

跨境电商品类持续扩张，表现亮眼。公司智能家居、健康办公产品品类不断丰富，在保持升降桌主打产 品优势的同时，利用线性驱动核心技术以及品牌、渠道协同优势，实现销售收入稳中有升。公司跨境电 商模式下，新品开拓卓有成效，且性价比不断提升，高中低不同价格带满足更多用户需求，2024 年跨 境电商销售收入20.26 亿元，同比增长14.28%，电动沙发、人体工学椅等新品类逐渐起量。 本报告导读： 公司业绩符合预期，自营海外仓的规模效应有望逐步显现。 投资要点： 调整盈利预期 ，维持"增持"评级。公司业绩低于我们的预期，考虑外贸环境的不确定性，我们下调公 司2025-2026 年盈利预期，并新增2027 年盈利预期，预计公司2025-2027 年EPS 为1.15/1.29/1.61元 （2025-2026 年原1.68/1.95 元），参考行业估值水平，考虑公司前瞻布局自建海外仓的成本优势赋予的 估值溢价，给予公司2025 年16xPE，下调目标价至18.44 元，维持"增持"评级。 海外仓业务保持高增长。2024 年公司海外仓实现营收24.23 亿元，同比增长154.76%，毛利率10.37%， 同比降低2.32pct ...

Core Insights - The cross-border e-commerce market is experiencing explosive growth, leading to a restructuring of traditional logistics and warehousing models, particularly in South China [1][4] - The Greater Bay Area logistics market is projected to reach a record supply of 3.94 million square meters in 2024, with over 60% of this space being leased by leading cross-border e-commerce companies [4][5] - The logistics market in the Greater Bay Area is facing mixed influences, with external pressures from trade friction and rising tariffs, while domestic demand growth may alleviate some downward pressure [4][11] Market Supply and Demand - The total logistics stock in the Greater Bay Area is expected to increase by 20.9% year-on-year to 20.97 million square meters by the end of 2024, with Foshan surpassing Hong Kong as the largest logistics market in the region [5][10] - The logistics market has seen a significant structural change, with net absorption declining by 8.3% year-on-year to 2.688 million square meters in 2024, despite record-high new supply [9][10] - Cross-border e-commerce has become the core driving force for the logistics warehousing market in the Greater Bay Area since the end of 2019, with major players like Temu, Shein, AliExpress, and TikTokShop leasing 67.3% of the new supply in 2024 [9][10] Regional Insights - The logistics real estate market in the Greater Bay Area is divided into four sub-markets: Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing, Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou, Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen, and Hong Kong, with the Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing area accounting for over 40% of the total supply in 2024 [6][10] - The logistics market is expected to continue expanding, with a projected total supply of 13.503 million square meters over the next three years, leading to a total stock of 27.093 million square meters by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.2% [11][12] Impact of Tariffs - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on cross-border e-commerce is a significant concern, as 34.2% of China's cross-border e-commerce exports in the first half of 2024 were directed to the U.S., which could affect logistics demand and rental levels in the Greater Bay Area [12][13] - The introduction of new tariffs on small packages under $800 by the U.S. is expected to influence market dynamics, prompting some businesses to consider shifting focus to emerging markets in Europe and Southeast Asia [13][14]

据港交所4月15日披露，深圳市顺友跨境物流股份有限公司(以下简称为：顺友物流)向港交所主板递交 上市申请，中信建投（601066）国际为其独家保荐人。按2024年的收入计，该公司在中国B2C出口电商 直发物流服务市场中排名第九。 据招股书，该公司是资深的跨境电商物流服务提供商，通过该公司在中国内地的根基及跨境物流网络赋 能跨境电商平台及跨境电商卖家。该公司成立于2008年，致力于提供一站式跨境物流服务，拥有庞大的 物流网络、阶梯式定价、多种配送时间选项及广泛的可运输物品覆盖面。该公司扎根于珠江三角洲地区 (中国内地最具活力的跨境电商地区之一)，并已于中国内地广东省深圳市、广州市及东莞市，浙江省义 乌市及宁波市，及江苏省苏州市，以及中国香港及美国开展业务。 根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，约5,000名服务提供商参与中国B2C出口电商直发物流服务市场的竞争， 而按2024年的收入计，前10名参与者仅占总市场份额的21.9%。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，2024年为 特货设置的直发物流服务的市场规模佔中国B2C出口电商物流市场的约27.0%。根据同一资料来源，按 2024年为特货设置的直发物流服务的交易额计，该公司在中国 ...